jorgenswest

The Twins non tendered Mijares a few years ago to avoid arbitration. Mijares had a better track record as a relief pitcher than Duensing. I would think Duensing will be nontendered or DFA'd prior to the end of the season. On the other hand, they took Butera to arbitration and his performance as a catcher is probably a comp to Duensing's as a reliever. They may designate him and use the 10 days to find a trade partner and take any offer.

It would be OK if we didn't have to take Callaspo's contract next year. He has become a 3B only. He was an awful 2B when he played it. Do you trust the Twins to dump him and his contract? There is no roster space to carry two 3Bs. He isn't a utility player. If the Twins were willing to dump him and not delay Sano's debut because they have nowhere else to play him, a deal is a consideration. The last thing I want to watch next year is another decline phase player with poor defensive ability.

Fair enough. Technology is reasonable solution. It certainly would help the Twins. Does it matter that this technology might only be available in the major leagues?

One of the players this board has discussed trading is Brian Duensing. The thought is other teams might look to him as a left handed LOOGY. His line 5.06 ERA, 41g, 32in, 29k, 14bb (over his career left handed hitters have a .580 OPS) Why trade him? Brian is 30. He will be eligible for arbitration next year. He would likely be non-tendered. Caleb Thielbar appears to be the better option with Pedro Hernandez providing depth. Why keep him? He certainly isn’t at peak value now and has never been tried exclusively as a LOOGY. Perhaps he will find similar success as Craig Breslow found after leaving the Twins. Which teams might fit? Boston lost Miller but they have Breslow. The Indians are rumored to be looking for a lefty. The Reds are reportedly seeking a lefty. What is the value of a LOOGY at the trade deadline? I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4. When looking at the ability to get left handed hitters, he might be a match. Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25, AA, 6.37 ERA Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk 25, AAA starter, 4.68 ERA Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants. There were no prospects dealt in these trades. A few were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlin the previous season. None of them appeared on team top 10 lists though Vandenhurk had pitched in the futures game three years earlier. Best Terry Ryan LOOGY trade The Twins traded JC Romero for Alexi Casilla in 2005. The return of Casilla is far better than anything in the last three years. How will the Twins replace Duensing? It seems that Thielbar already has replaced Duensing. Hernandez is 6 years younger and seems better suited to relief. Bottom Line When looking at comps, we can expect virtually nothing in return for Duensing. He certainly would not merit a sleeper prospect. Anything the Twins are able to get in return would be a bonus. An Alexi Casilla A-Ball type prospect would be an outright steal.

One of the players this board has discussed trading is Brian Duensing. The thought is other teams might look to him as a left handed LOOGY. His line 5.06 ERA, 41g, 32in, 29k, 14bb (over his career left handed hitters have a .580 OPS) Why trade him? Brian is 30. He will be eligible for arbitration next year. He would likely be non-tendered. Caleb Thielbar appears to be the better option with Pedro Hernandez providing depth. Why keep him? He certainly isn’t at peak value now and has never been tried exclusively as a LOOGY. Perhaps he will find similar success as Craig Breslow found after leaving the Twins. Which teams might fit? Boston lost Miller but they have Breslow. The Indians are rumored to be looking for a lefty. The Reds are reportedly seeking a lefty. What is the value of a LOOGY at the trade deadline? I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4. When looking at the ability to get left handed hitters, he might be a match. Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25, AA, 6.37 ERA Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk 25, AAA starter, 4.68 ERA Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants. There were no prospects dealt in these trades. A few were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlin the previous season. None of them appeared on team top 10 lists though Vandenhurk had pitched in the futures game three years earlier. Best Terry Ryan LOOGY trade The Twins traded JC Romero for Alexi Casilla in 2005. The return of Casilla is far better than anything in the last three years. How will the Twins replace Duensing? It seems that Thielbar already has replaced Duensing. Hernandez is 6 years younger and seems better suited to relief. Bottom Line When looking at comps, we can expect virtually nothing in return for Duensing. He certainly would not merit a sleeper prospect. Anything the Twins are able to get in return would be a bonus. An Alexi Casilla A-Ball type prospect would be an outright steal.

Sample size applies to data. While an appearance or two won't be enough, the Twins can evaluate his pitches and command as he performs and make a determination on his need for more AAA time. Even if he were on the team the remainder of the season (given a reliever's limited innings), any assessment we make based on data would not be very reliable. If they determine he is ready, I'd chance parting ways with either Roenicke or Duensing even if it meant designating for assignment. Both are 30 and essentially replacement level. Neither is part of the solution.

He probably needs around 200 plate appearances at AA to know if it is anything other than random variation. You would expect his strike out rate to go up some and then for him to adjust. He may benefit from a full year at the level. When he does hit the majors, it may take a few years of many strike outs before he really begins to pay off. It took Chris Davis a while.

I appreciate reading the reports and reading about some sleeper names in other organizations. My apologies ahead. It isn't my intention to devalue your work with a thought that occurred as I read the current trade article. The Twins don't fit well with many teams. I wonder if writing from the perspective of the Twins assets might also be worthwhile. For example, writing from the perspective of Justin Morneau. Headings might include. Why trade him? Why keep him? Which teams might fit? What trades for the last 2 or 3 years might be comps to Justin (to set an expected level of return)? How will the Twins fill the hole when he leaves? Players might include Morneau, Perkins, Plouffe, Doumit, Carroll, Willingham, Duensing, Burton, Correia and Pelfrey.

Good point. They went young in 2008 turning around some position players. This is Gardy's oldest team and oldest since 1998. The Twins haven't had many years where both the average pitcher age and batter age was over 28.

I don't think it is the arrogance of umpires that impacts the strike zone according to catcher. I think it is a catching skill. Since it is a skill, I appreciate watching catchers that are particularly good at it just as I appreciate watching shortstops good at picking a ball in the hole.

Agree. If he is interested, Gardenhire would be managing again within a year.

The last two Twin successful runs started with going young and then a change in managers. TK had a very young team from 1999-2001 (when they stopped signing decline phase fill ins) and Gardenhire took over the team as they reached .500. Billy Gardner had very young teams from 1982-1985 returning them to around .500. It took a change to TK in 1986 (with interlude by Ray Miller) before the successful run from 1987-1992. The Twins haven't gone young yet. They continue to try to fill in with decline phase players. If they do decide to go young and have everyone grow together, it would probably be good to have a new manager growth with them.

Among the first stats to become reliable with a sample is strike out rate and walk rate. It is encouraging. If he can maintain it through about 150-200 plate appearances, it will likely be evidence of growth and change rather than fluke.

Midseason Prospect Update: 10 Breakthrough Prospects For 2013 - BaseballAmerica.com

If Sano can't handle 3B, where will the Twins turn without Plouffe? Romero? He is 26. He is not tearing up AAA. I don't think there is a good option. Anyone can be traded for the right offer but like Perkins, Plouffe is part of the solution. I don't think the Twins should be actively trying to move him.

A few weeks ago when Morneau had 3 home runs, it was written that while his fly ball rate hadn't changed his hr per fly ball rate was unsustainably low at 3%. It was certain to go up without a change in approach and result in double digit home runs the rest of the way. He won't sustain his rate of the last week either, but it is nice to see him get the positive end of the distribution.

A recent post suggested the Twins flip Diamond for Hendriks if he doesn't turn it around by the end of the month. This has been on my mind as I listened to the Gardenhire show yesterday morning and the post-game discussions: if Diamond is to get but a handful more starts before flipping him for Hendriks, can he at least have a different catcher.[PRBREAK][/PRBREAK] Doumit doesn't catch often but he has caught 11 of 16 Diamond starts. Gardy quoted ERA as a reason. Hopefully someone in the organization will let him know that ERA isn't a very good measure in small samples or for projections. The catcher and pitcher have much more influence over strikeouts and walks than ERA. With Doumit as catcher, Diamond's K/BB ratio is 28/16. With Mauer it is 16/3. In 2012, Mauer caught many more of Diamond's starts. Mauer 54/16 (16 starts) Doumit 23/13 (8 starts) Butera 13/2 (3 starts) As a team, pitchers with Mauer catching have a K/BB ratio of 2.63; 1.53 with Doumit. Of course, Gardenhire commented in the post-game show about the difficulty all his pitchers had keeping the ball down yesterday. Perhaps it would help if they used a catcher with the ability to convert most of the balls low in the strike zone into strikes. Just once I would like to hear him say that they need to do a better job of receiving the ball low in the strike zone. Is it time for Diamond to be sent to AAA? Maybe. He seems pretty messed up and time in AAA with Butera may help. If he stays, I hope he gets Mauer behind the plate. View full article

So assuming he doesn't accept that deal, do you dump him for marginal prospects or do nothing and allow him to become a free agent?

Another post suggested the Twins flip Diamond for Hendriks if he doesn't turn it around by the end of the month. It has been on my mind as I listened to the Gardenhire show yesterday morning and the post game conference following the game. If Diamond is to get a handful more starts before flipping him for Hendriks, can he at least have a different catcher. Doumit doesn't catch often but he has caught 11 of 16 Diamond starts. Gardy quoted ERA as a reason. Hopefully someone in the organization will let him know that ERA isn't a very good measure in small samples or for projections. The catcher and pitcher have much more influence over strike outs and walks than ERA. Diamond k/bb totals with Doumit as a catcher is 28/16. With Mauer it is 16/3. In 2012, Mauer caught many more of Diamond's starts. Mauer 54/16 (16 starts) Doumit 23/13 (8) Butera 13/2 (3) As a team, pitchers with Mauer have a k/bb ratio of 2.63 and 1.53 with Doumit. Of course, Gardenhire commented in the post game about the difficulty all of his pitchers had keeping the ball down yesterday. Perhaps it would help if they used catcher with the ability to convert most of the balls low in the strike zone into strikes. Just once I would like to hear him say that they need to do a better job of receiving the ball down in the zone. Is it time for Diamond to be sent to AAA? Maybe. He seems pretty messed up and time in AAA with Butera may help. If he stays, I hope he gets Mauer behind the plate.

Another post suggested the Twins flip Diamond for Hendriks if he doesn't turn it around by the end of the month. It has been on my mind as I listened to the Gardenhire show yesterday morning and the post game conference following the game. If Diamond is to get a handful more starts before flipping him for Hendriks, can he at least have a different catcher. Doumit doesn't catch often but he has caught 11 of 16 Diamond starts. Gardy quoted ERA as a reason. Hopefully someone in the organization will let him know that ERA isn't a very good measure in small samples or for projections. The catcher and pitcher have much more influence over strike outs and walks than ERA. Diamond k/bb totals with Doumit as a catcher is 28/16. With Mauer it is 16/3. In 2012, Mauer caught many more of Diamond's starts. Mauer 54/16 (16 starts) Doumit 23/13 (8) Butera 13/2 (3) As a team, pitchers with Mauer have a k/bb ratio of 2.63 and 1.53 with Doumit. Of course, Gardenhire commented in the post game about the difficulty all of his pitchers had keeping the ball down yesterday. Perhaps it would help if they used catcher with the ability to convert most of the balls low in the strike zone into strikes. Just once I would like to hear him say that they need to do a better job of receiving the ball down in the zone. Is it time for Diamond to be sent to AAA? Maybe. He seems pretty messed up and time in AAA with Butera may help. If he stays, I hope he gets Mauer behind the plate.

How often do other teams trade players at a near peak value? I would not count any trade where a player was headed to free agency (Grienke). That player has for forced the teams hand in those cases. Looking at last winter. The Rays traded Shields. The Twins traded Span. The Twins traded Revere. If Ryan was willing to trade Span and Revere, why wouldn't he trade Willingham if offered reasonable prospects? Why would team offer a good prospect for a decline phase player with a history of injury trouble? Who would be willing to endure his continued decline in the field? Why risk that two year commitment and risk losing a good prospect? I am sure teams offered to take Willingham's contract for a return of marginal prospects. I think J.C. Sulbaran was a name mentioned last year and the Reds eventually traded him for Broxton. Should Ryan have traded Willingham for a prospect like Sulbaran?

Morneau doesn't have to hit like the Morneau of old to be worth 10 million. Similar performance with a few more home runs in the second half will put him there this year. In any case, I would not extend him 2 years. I do think there is a good chance he will be worth that contract. I am hoping the Twins put together a group of players that will improve together towards their primes. I don't want to mix in decline phase players so that any improvement by the younger players is countered by the decline of the older in future years.

I don't see the 0.3. I see 1.3 for Hicks on his page. I also see a Defensive Runs Saved of 10 from BIS. For comparison, this metric had an even odd correlation of .59 which shows more reliability the ERA and batting average and approaching OPS. The 10 drs is second among center fielders between Carlos Gomez and Andrew McCutcheon.

I don't read their responses the same way. I sure don't read Reusse's column this way. The reality is 2/20 doesn't buy much in free agency. USAChief questions whether the Twins would spend that money in a better way. No one signed for those exact terms last year. Maybe a Cody Ross at 3/26 was a comp.