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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    A good idea. It gives the Twins the value of making a qualifying offer without risking he will take it.
  2. jorgenswest
    Not a bad plan. If he doesn't keep trending up we lose the opportunity to get a C prospect or two. We look elsewhere for the future. If he does trend up, the qualifying offer may be overpaying but it is a one year contract to a player with an injury history. No one year contract will cripple the Twins next year.
  3. jorgenswest
    Are you suggesting that the Orioles really wanted Duensing but had to settle Rodriguez or at least that they are comparable value? The most similar thing about these two guys is their "old" age at 30 and 31. Late inning relievers with an ERA around 1 have some value (see Mike Adams). LOOGYs with an ERA over 4 do not.
  4. jorgenswest
    Delmonico was given B- by Sickels and not in Baseball America's or MLBs top 100 entering the season. He was in the Oriole top 10 but BBA said their system had no depth beyond Gausman and Bundy. JJ Cooper said earlier this month when asked in a chat that he is higher on him than the scouts he talked with. He thinks he might be a borderline top 100. I doubt he would be in Minnesota's top 10. A player with a similar profile in the Twins organization would be Travis Harrison. Good bat. Questionable defense. Same grade from Sickels. Yes. We can expect more for Perkins. The Twins need to move the bar in two ways. They need a true top 100. They need that player to play a key role - starting pitcher or shortstop. I am not sure it reasonable to expect that return for any reliever. I hope Ryan holds out for it.
  5. jorgenswest
    To go with the rumors about Soria. In the summer of 2010, he had a no trade clause that blocked a trade to the Yankees (as well as 5 other top teams with established closers). His options vested at 55 games finished which he would not achieve unless he was a closer. Rumors in the winter following that season resurfaced and at that time Soria said he was now open to dropping the no trade clause. Of course, he would drop it if given enough compensation which would make his contract not so friendly. The Yankees can go ahead and put out rumors of an offer Montero on the condition the Royals can get Soria to drop his no trade clause with knowledge that Soria is not going to do it. When Soria wants more compensation, the Yankees counter by saying that decreases his value and they drop their trade offer accordingly. When looking for comps for Perkins, we should look at actual trades and not rumors.
  6. jorgenswest
    The minor leagues are about learning and growing. Just part of the process. I appreciate that the Twins have the courage to discipline behavior for even the best of prospects. Far better for him to miss a game or two now. It isn't just about this particular event. It is about expectations. Whether it be running out a batted ball, hustling on and off the field, arriving on time it doesn't matter. If the team has expectations that are not met, discipline like missing a game or two should follow.
  7. jorgenswest
    If a Perkins remains a Twin, will we assume that Ryan did not get the unprecedented offer for a reliever he is seeking or will we criticize Ryan for not making a move?
  8. jorgenswest
    I looked at 30 year closers in the last 20 years. Most remain effective through age 33. The most common reason for dropping off was that they really were not that effective at 30. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0Apr9y6uWjOUKdGxlNzJJRXQzTGx6WDVfLWp0a2JBcmc&usp=drive_web There were some guys that got injured but it was less than the rate of set up men and probably no greater risk of injury than a 23 year old pitching prospect they might get in return. I also looked at every trade for closers the last several summers. The returns were below what most on this site expect. I believe the following... - Perkins is likely to remain effective through age 33. - While injury is possible, it is no more likely that he will be injured than a pitching prospect we might acquire for him. - Relievers haven't received great returns in trade. Certainly not the level of a starting pitcher or heart of the order hitter - Team friendly, long term contracts are more valuable in the offseason when teams are less focused on the short term. While I don't expect Ryan to get a top starting pitching prospect (or maybe a top SS prospect) in return, it is the value that he needs to seek knowing keeping Perkins is of significant value.
  9. jorgenswest
    Albers mixes a high 80s fastball with a slow curve. He has carried reverse platoon splits through the minors with a low groundball rate. You can't find to many major leaguers with that profile, but they exist. Bruce Chen and Barry Zito have pitched a long time with that mix. They would probably be the high end upside comp.
  10. jorgenswest
    In the last 3 years, Swarzak was given 11 starts. All of them in 2011. His FIP (3.92) and xFIP (4.45) as a starter were better than his relief numbers that year. The Twins have started many pitchers who haven't done nearly as well in the last three seasons. It could be that his two fastballs and curve ball aren't enough and his change up isn't effective enough to be starter. On the otherhand, there are pitchers who have pitched poorly and given a much longer look as a starter. I asked for analysis earlier because it is something i wonder. Any analysis?
  11. jorgenswest
    Nick - he is not in AAA, but any analysis on Swarzak getting another chance in the rotation?
  12. jorgenswest
    i thought I was done, but I don't like it when guys are called garbage. Duensing - 4.56 ERA 30/17 in 35.1 age 30 (4.25 career ERA) My comps... All left handed Breslow - 2.79 ERA 42k/17bb in 43.1 innings age 31 at trade (2.99 career ERA) Fuentes - 3.52. 39/18 in 38.1 age 34 (3.62) Lopez - 2.79 22/18 in 38.2 age 32 (3.70) Romero playing in minors when traded - 35 Mijares - 2.56 37/13 in 38.1 age 27 (2.92) My mistake on Romero.
  13. jorgenswest
    I got the contract part. In looking at trades, I don't think it plays a very large factor at the deadline. They spoke about this on the Gleeman/Geek podcast. Teams want the best guy they can get for the next two months as cheaply as they can get them. In the winter they can fill the hole remaining. Zeigler and Lincoln were having very good seasons and got a fair return. We disagree. I hope you are right and we get a Martin level return.
  14. jorgenswest
    Brad Lincoln throws right handed, was 27, was once a top prospect and had an ERA under 3 with more strike outs than innings pitched at the time of the trade. Ziegler, also right handed, had an ERA of 2.39 with a career ERA to match and was a late inning reliever. We are very far apart on where we see Duensing's value. I hope you are correct.
  15. jorgenswest
    His 61.9% ground ball rate is the highest among starting pitchers with at least 10 starts. Masterson follows him among AL pitchers at 57.8%. If he can keep the ground ball rate and walk rate and improve his strike out rate, he will be better than a number 4 starter. I am not confident he can maintain his walk rate.
  16. jorgenswest
    I found 5 trades (and a waiver claim) over the last 3 summers involving a left handed reliever as the primary target. I am not sure Duensing is a great match as all others had ERAs under 4. Brain Fuentes for (PTBNL) Loek Van Mil- 25, AA, 6.37 ERA Javier Lopez for John Bowker and Joe Martinez – both 27 year old AAAA players Will Ohmann for Rick Vandenhurk 25, AAA starter, 4.68 ERA Craig Breslow for Matt Albers(29) and Scot Posednik(36) – major leaguers JC Romero for Carlos Rojas – 28, AA, utility infielder Jose Mijares -waived by Royals and picked up by Giants. There were no prospects dealt in these trades. A few were already replacement AAAA players. Van Mil and Vandenhurk were 25. Vandenhurk had started 11 games for the Marlin the previous season. There was no one near Martin's prospect status. He is younger than any of them and he is pitching far better in the minors. This is the kind if return we should expect.
  17. jorgenswest
    You could be correct. I know Sickels had Martin as number 10 Braves and a B-. He has been on Baseball America's prospects on the rise this year as well as Fangraphs fringe 5. I know less and have read less about Jaime. If Jaime has risen from his injury to the same level as Martin then acquiring him would be unreasonable also. Jaime's health risk and age may make him more attainable.
  18. jorgenswest
    Doumit isn't capable defensively at either spot. He hurts the team more at catcher than he could possibly help with the bat. The only reason RF might be better is he has less opportunities to do damage. There has been a shift in catchers the last few years and the Twins haven't been paying attention. The Yankees seek catchers who can manage the strike zone and they don't care about the bat. The Rays sign Jose Molina and give him a good contract in spite of a terrible bat. The Pirates sign Russell Martin and their pitching staff is transformed. Since 2007 data has been collected about a catcher's ability to manage the strike zone. Doumit is at the very bottom every single year. Other teams have abandoned bad catchers so it isn't even close this year. The guy who was closest, Jesus Montero, has been moved to 1B in the minors. If Doumit stays, it must be in Jim Thome role of DH/PH only. Anything else would hurt the team and the development of the young pitchers. Does he hit well enough to do that role?
  19. jorgenswest
    I don't think the Braves will need to part with Cody Martin to get a reliever. Far better relievers than Duensing have been traded the last three years and did not get a Martin level return. If that kind of return is the expectation, Ryan is sure to disappoint. Juan Jaime, on the other hand, will be 26 next week and has missed two years due to Tommy John. His upside is his great fastball and k-rate. His downside is that he is probably one more injury from never playing in the majors. The Twins might be able to get him in a package for Burton or Duensing. It really depends on how the Braves view his health and progress. If they do trade him, they probably are concerned.
  20. jorgenswest
    Before going to Albers, why not give Swarzak another shot as a starter? He started 11 games in 2011. 63.1 IP, 36K, 13BB, 4.52 ERA, 3.92 FIP His FIP as a starter was better than his FIP as a reliever. While those number aren't great, the Twins have certainly given other guys longer shots with poorer results. It is also possible that he is a better pitcher now than he was in 2011. The Twins have run a lot of guys through the rotation the last two years, I would put Swarzak in the mix and give a dozen starts. Worst case, he enters 2014 back in his long relief role.
  21. jorgenswest
    I agree on the necessity to Doumit trade. The Twins need to find out if Herrmann can receive the ball well enough to be the back up catcher. If not Herrmann, then they need to find out about Pinto. Have you seen any reports about Herrmann's defense and in particular his ability to receive the ball?
  22. jorgenswest
    Duensing for a C prospect would be a good deal. I am not certain the Twins would make a tender offer.
  23. jorgenswest
    I don't see how it would happen. Starters are in short supply. Teams in contention should and will be more willing to overpay. The Twins have no reason to overpay right now.
  24. jorgenswest
    More on the Royals timing... Hosmer and Perez are younger than anyone on the Twins current roster. Only Hicks and Presley are younger than Moustakis. All are 23 or 24. Those three Royals are 3-5 years from the primes of their careers. The Royals should have been adding a 4th guy to that core in Myers. Why not wait until building the foundation of a .500 and then add pieces to get to the next level? The Royals have enough good pieces that it might still work out, but they increased the likelihood of continuing in their cycle of mediocrity with the moves for Shields and Guthrie. In 2015 when that trio above is 25-26, Shields will be a free agent and they will be stuck with a declining Guthrie. The piece they need at that time might be in the middle of the Rays batting order.
  25. jorgenswest
    I think they should wait on any internal additions to the 40 man until after the trade deadline. They may need to make room if they get multiple players in return. If they absolutely want to send down Diamond, they can stretch out Swarzak for a start or two and bring up Tonkin.
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