Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I would let him go because... -DH's have very little value at the trade deadline. How many position players moved this year? Willingham has less value. He can't play any position without costing a team. -2012 was an outlier. Even a drop off from 2011 when he had an OPS of .810 should be expected. -Anyone under 30 playing LF has a chance to be part of the solution. Willingham will not be part of the solution. They need to seek solutions instead of perpetuating mediocrity. Will the Twins begin to rebuild? The decision on Willingham will be telling.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think the Twins need to let him go. He and Doumit can't both DH next year. Neither should be in the field.
  3. jorgenswest
    Maybe they give a shot to a minor league free agent. Maybe they make a minor trade for a Gomes or Lobaton. Maybe they go with Hermann. Maybe they give Parmelee a regular shot as a starter with longer stretches in the starting line up. Arguing specifics just distracts from the decision making process. The Twins made the decision to sign Ryan and extend him. That's fine. He is a good guy. Great to have in the clubhouse. It just isn't a decision that is consistent with a rebuilding plan. If they were rebuilding, they make a different decision.
  4. jorgenswest
    This. Plus... No rebuild yet. Just a bad team. You don't put up your oldest roster in 15 years and call it a rebuild. You don't extend guys like Doumit and call it a rebuild. All that does is take away at bats from guys who could be part of the solution. 1999 was a rebuild. 1982 was a rebuild. The decisions of 2012-2013 just continue a cycle of mediocrity. Will 2014 be the beginning of the rebuild? Note: The team age this year just fell a tenth below the 2010 mark. That relative high age roster mark in 2010 combined with little ready in the system should have been a huge red flag to the front office.
  5. jorgenswest
    Does it seem like players are declining earlier or at a quicker rate in the last few years? There was a study about 5 years ago about how players were aging better. The group of players studied 1980-2008 peaked a little later and aged much more gradually compared to pre 1980 players. They were getting as much as two more effective years in their 30s. I wonder of steroids had any impact on maintaining the level of play later into the 30s. Certainly the conditioning and nutrition must be better in this era. However, the same conditioning and nutrition should also have improved a player in their 20s and decline is relative to individual peak performance. If we are entering the post steroid era of baseball and players are declining sooner, this will have an impact on decisions about free agent signings. http://www.hardballtimes.com/images/uploads/image002.png
  6. jorgenswest
    I think Doumit will be a Twin next year. The Twins value him as a catcher. Other teams might value him as a bench bat. There won't be a match. Assuming he is a Twin, Joe needs to catch. Gardenhire already has caught Doumit way too often this year. Without Joe as an option, Doumit might catch even more next year. Our pitching staff needs better. Doumit is valuable in a bench role... pinch hit, DH, emergency catcher.
  7. jorgenswest
    Pedroia deserves to win it this year with his glove. Dozier is very good, but Pedroia is better.
  8. jorgenswest
    I had this from an earlier post. Below is a strike zone plot of his Baltimore start. He did pitch in the bottom quarter of the zone. He just couldn't get those pitches called strikes. There were 5 balls called in the bottom of the strike zone and only 1 strike, Was it the way he pitches? The umpire? Doumit? If you don't get strike calls in the bottom part, you have to adjust. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=521230&game=gid_2013_04_05_minmlb_balmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3.gif
  9. jorgenswest
    It would be foolish to commit anything more than one year. Even then he will have 10/5 rights and be even more difficult to trade.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Twins only risk money in this case. He would not be replacing a Hardy. The Twins would not lose a draft pick. Similar to Nishioka, there isn't a lot of interest. He comes with questions about his defense at SS. However, the Twins still need to outbid the few others. The likelihood, as remote as it is, that Guerrero will be a solid major league SS is greater than Santana or anyone else in the organization.
  11. jorgenswest
    On DL.
  12. jorgenswest
    If the Twins are going to pay his salary, they need to get a reasonable prospect. I doubt there is much interest. It really isn't a lot of money to a team if they thought he would make a significant difference. For Gardy, it may not be completely straight forward, but it is more respectful to Morneau to talk about money rather than talk about the fact that there is little interest in him.
  13. jorgenswest
    Every contract is a risk. The Twins need to take this risk. If it turns out to be a Nishioka, I won't be back to criticize this move. The Twins are desperate for talent. They are desperate for talent in the middle infield. They are desperate for talent that will be in their prime when the young talent arrives from the minors. Though the salary may be high, it will cost the Twins nothing in traded talent or surrendered draft picks. There is no reason for the Twins to be outbid for Guerrero.
  14. jorgenswest
    That would be a historically bad defensive line up. Mastroianni will be below average in CF. Sano may be at the bottom of the league. Arcia will be close. Willingham should be DH. The Twins may be the only team in baseball that would play Doumit at catcher. If the Twins want to develop pitching, they need to have a real defense behind them. Long term, it is better for the development of pitchers if they start with a foundation of defense. It might be better to have fewer crooked numbers on both sides.
  15. jorgenswest
    I am with you on his pitch mix. I don't think he has the mix of a mid-rotation starter. As for home and road, he has given up many more homeruns at home in his career. It is 76-35. While his career xFIP is virtually the same and slightly better at home at around 4.34, his ERA has been much worse over his career at home. The home/road difference cannot be ignored. Someone will risk starting pitcher dollars on Hughes this winter. They will be betting that he can be an effective starter away from the Yankees. Maybe it will be the Twins. Whichever team signs him should do so knowing that his pitch mix may lead him to the bullpen in order to find success.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think you are talking about Jack Morris' one year 3.7 million dollar deal. He had a player option at a significantly lower 2 million dollar salary for 1992 that he declined. Maybe you are talking about Chili Davis' 1 year more moderate 1.7 million. The Twins had the option for 1992 so their risk did not extend beyond 1 year. In both cases, they key was committing only 1 year to decline phase players. I would absolutely make 1 year free agent deals like that this winter. Do you think the market has changed since 1991? Is it still possible to make these kinds of 1 year deals? If not, I don't see the parallel.
  17. jorgenswest
    Willingham is a liability in the field. A liability on the bases. He will decline further next year. It is time to release him. No one would take on his contract. The Twins got one good year for the 21 million.
  18. jorgenswest
    Let's sign more decline phase players in free agency. We get one good year and watch them labor in the field and on the base paths the next two.
  19. jorgenswest
    I think Albers is very different than Scort Diamond. He is not the rely on ground balls pitch to contact type. He is a fly ball pitcher. He comes to the majors with reverse platoon splits. At best, he profiles like Bruce Chen who has had a long career. Barry Zito is more similar to Albers than Diamond. There aren't many guys like this who have been successful, but it is worth giving him this opportunity.
  20. jorgenswest
    The Cubs spent nearly 40 million in free agency last year and stayed in 5th place. They may improve to 70 wins. How much more do they need to spend this winter?
  21. jorgenswest
    Finding a pitcher following a bad season (in Feldman's case an ERA+ of 86) and signing him to a 6 million dollar contract is the easy part. Lots of pitchers coming off bad seasons sign in that range. The hard part is figuring out which guy is going to pitch really well for a half season. We're the Cubs smarter or just lucky? The Cubs spent 29.5 million dollars on Feldman (traded), Baker (injured), Jackson (5+ ERA) and Villanueva(6th starter) on pitching. They were able to turn Feldman into Strop and Arrieta. I don't think many teams can afford to operate this way. I do think that if a team spends 30 million on free agent pitchers, the goal ought to be making the playoffs and not flipping one of them midseason.
  22. jorgenswest
    A discussion killer. No matter. The Twins probably aren't discussing it either.
  23. jorgenswest
    The real discussion should be about how a team can gain an advantage by utilizing the rules well. I would like to hear the Twins responses to these questions. Are the Twins preparing now? Are they simulating when they might use it during a game? Are they practicing the communication and decision making process? Every event in baseball has a run value. Will the bench know the value of reversing the event? Will they use the general table or a custom one that varies with the specific pitcher, batter and game condition? Some events may be easier to see in replay than others and therefore more likely to be reversed. Are the Twins studying this by looking at old video and multiple cameras? I hope the Twins have someone working and preparing the analytics and decision making process. Some teams are going to find a way to get advantage a squeeze out a win or two. I am guessing the Rays and Joe Maddon will be preparing. Other teams will not be as prepared. Their decision making process may be reactionary and more dependent on the emotion of the moment. Those teams might find it costs them a win or two.
  24. jorgenswest
    If Mastro is ready, he will probably join the Twins. That would leave them with one back up infielder, but Mastro has played secondbase in the minors. If there is a need, he could fill in.
  25. jorgenswest
    The reason the Twins are a good match is because of Sano and Buxton. One of them would have to part of the package. It is a waste of time to speculate otherwise.
×
×
  • Create New...