jorgenswest

Sadly, secondbasemen don't have great trade value. As a 2B/LF prospect he is not going bring a starting pitching prospect in his same range. What is the best return for a 2B in the last several years? Did any bring back a good starting pitcher?

I would absolutely trade Perkins for a very good starting pitching or shortstop prospect. I am skeptical that any reliever would return a very good prospect at those positions.

I think the Twins out all of their 2014 eggs in the Tanaka basket. Outbid everyone on the posting fee and give him a long contract. The big dent is on this year's budget. Dollars spent on the posting fee will be off the books. Tanaka isn't enough to make a difference next year. However, he is a key piece for next year and the future. He is young. The posting fee is a one time cost. Since it is a blind bid, the Twins have equal footing with the other teams. Tanaka won't have other major league options once they win the bid. They need to spend everything on Tanaka next year.

I don't think the Twins get optimal use of platoon advantage. I was surprised to see their position and acknowledged that they have several switch hitters. Gardenhire may have been able to take the current roster and get a few more wins. Different roster construction may have allowed more. I think the Indians and A's position on the list was intentional on their part. In the Indians case it will be the difference in making the playoffs.

I should have added runs scored rank. Cleveland and Oakland are third and fourth in runs scored. They may not have several great individual hitters but as a group they score a lot of runs. Boston is first. Baltimore fifth. They all get better than average platoon advantage. Detroit is second in runs scored and the only one in the top five that get below league average platoon advantage.

Another Pelfrey/Correia comparison. Among starters Correia has the fewest pitches per plate appearance at 3.69 and Pelfrey the greatest at 4.00. Does it matter? Maybe. Pitch count has allowed Correia to go deeper into games more often. Fewer pitches per plate appearances allows Correia to work quicker. There is at least anecdotal evidence that defense is improved when a pitcher works quickly. Better defense behind him won't improve his FIP, but it will improve his ERA.

Two topics that appeared in the forums led me to wonder which teams are getting the platoon advantage. How did the Indians do it? I look at their numbers and see a combined 6.1 WAR from Jan Gomes and Ryan Raburn. Those cheap additions will be the difference between contending for the wild card and being on the fringe. Francona has found a role for them to put up fantastic numbers. We also debated about how platooning might help the Twins. I wondered how often teams are getting the platoon advantage. I guess I could have waited two more days, but I don't think the numbers will change significantly. Below is a table listing the percent each AL team was able to have the platoon advantage in a plate appearance. I could have included NL, but the DH gives the AL teams a different context for controlling the platoon advantage. [TABLE=width: 300] TeamCLE OAK SEA BAL MIN BOS TBR TOR AL HOU DET NYY KCR LAA TEX CHW Advantage70.5% 70.4% 67.3% 61.3% 61.3% 60.7% 59.8% 59.1% 59.0% 57.2% 56.7% 54.8% 54.5% 53.5% 53.2% 43.8% [/TABLE] There are many ways of increasing the platoon advantage. Managers can use a traditional 1 for 1 platoon. Managers can manipulate the batting order so that the top of the order has hitters with the advantage. Managers can make more frequent use of pinch hitters. Teams can seek switch hitters. General managers can provide bench players that can be used in platoon and pinch hitting roles. I look to the top and I am not surprised. The front office of the Indians, Orioles and A's have found inexpensive pieces like Raburn, Valencia and Moss and hired managers that utilized their talents well. I can imagine that Plouffe would thrive in such a situation. I was a little surprised that the Twins find themselves with Baltimore. The Twins have rostered several switch hitters. That helps. It would help more if they could hit from both sides. As the Twins make roster decisions for 2014. There is no question they need to improve starting pitching. There are few inexpensive routes towards that goal. They also desperately need to improve the offense. Will they look to Cleveland and Oakland's use of the platoon advantage as an inexpensive route towards improving the offense?

It must be acknowledged that as a group of players in their thirties, the performance of the free agent class will decline each year including the first year. The top free agents will get 5-6 years. The Twins have to expect that they will be a shadow of their current self in the end years of the contract and will be a burden to the payroll. Mid market teams can't afford to sign top free agents every off season. Is this the offseason? The risk works when the team has a successful season early in the contract. For the Twins success is the playoffs or maybe even competing in September. The downside, of course, is that the improvement of the young players 3-5 years down the road is balanced by the decline of the large contract players (Mauer + free agents) and the Twins improve but never become a top team. That may have been the bar for success in 2010. The bar has dropped significantly. I think success might be the fringe of the wild card now. However, there is another risk. There is a risk the Twins won't maintain the revenue of a midmarket team if they don't improve towards 80 wins. They have a poor TV contract. They live by the revenue of Target Field. They can't afford to do nothing. For them it is far better to contend on the fringe of the wild card and fill seats for the next decade. Maybe they will get lucky and make it once or twice. They need to make those key top free agent signings this winter. They will grow old with Mauer and be a burden on the payroll in 2016-2017. With their help next year and the young players coming the Twins should be able to be in the fringe of the wild card mix and sell tickets. If they don't sign those guys, revenue will drop and they may not have revenue to sign them in the future. Maybe they will get lucky and the guys they sign will be the ones that defy decline and injury as they age.

Harper also may have hidden ability to help pitchers. Pitchers had a significantly better strikeout walk ratio with Harper than the other catcher (Ortiz, Laudner, Webster). He had the better rate in each of his seasons and over his time with the Twins. They need Pinto to provide similar help.

Defense is critical at catcher. If he can grow into an average defender, his bat will be a plus. If not, the Twins need to keep looking. Next year is the time to find out if he can make progress defensively.

I am concerned that symptoms will linger throughout the winter. Joe will not be able to maintain his workout regimen over the winter. He comes next spring in poorer physical condition (not his fault) having lost some weight and struggles at the plate. These brain injuries are serious and can have lasting impact.

I said the Twins are at the opposite end of the spectrum based on roster decisions. Once rostered, Gardenhire doesn't have options. The Twins made the decision to sign Doumit. They made the decision to extend him. They could have made another choice. Other teams would have made a different decision. As for Butera, if the Twins had started him at catcher replacing every Doumit start they would have saved more runs than they would have lost due to his bat in those games this year. Both are poor options at catcher, but the Twins didn't give themselves other options. Butera also has more trade value than Doumit. The Dodgers released Ramon Hernandez who at the time of the release in June (and now) had a significantly better OPS. He is also a very poor pitch framer. It took the Dodgers a few months to see it. There is no way they would have given up a prospect for Doumit. At the time of the Butera trade I wrote about the cost of Doumit's defense compared the gain from his offense. The light hitting Butera would not need to be elite to have been a better option at catcher. Average defense would have been sufficient. Revisiting Catching and Defense - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum Either the Twins are blind to the impact of catching on runs given up or they have it right and the Pirates, Yankees, Dodgers, and Rays are blind. The most worrisome part to me is that they are not developing this skill in their minor league catchers either.

The Dodgers are among a group of teams that highly value defense at catcher and show it with their roster decisions. The Twins are at the opposite end of the spectrum.

He will certainly get a qualifying offer which he may accept. He would be gambling on having a second strong season by accepting and larger contract in free agency. The Twins will have to beat the market by offering more years or dollars. I would prefer they increase the dollars perhaps to 48 for 3 years. I can't see him retaining his velocity for four more years (or even 3), but I hope they can get two good years and have him at the back of the rotation in year 3. All pitchers are a risky proposition as they age. In Ubaldo's case even riskier with his poor pitching the previous two years and lack of control to balance any loss in velocity.

I think the Twins management agrees with you.

I would think he is young enough to improve. He won't improve until this skill is valued and understood by the organization. Knowledgeable coaches, video study and hard work can turn this around.

The competition is fair. All major league teams play under the same conditions. No one forced the Twins to roster and extend Doumit. No one is denying them the opportunity to develop the skill of their catchers in the minors. They have the same opportunity to acquire catchers with this skill. It isn't the umpires or the lack of technology that has damaged the Twins. They did it to themselves. Will they in 2014? Do they have any idea if Pinto it Herrmann are skilled in this area? Have they put resources into the pitch fx technology for their minor league teams? Do they have a team of people analyzing the data, reviewing the video and working with catchers on areas of the zone they are not getting strikes? Like almost everything else in baseball, managing the strike zone is a skill that can be acquired and developed. Some are very good. Some are not. How much does it impact the game in runs scored? Joe Maddon said on a radio show that they calculated Molina saved them 50 runs last year. That is an astounding amount of runs. So many runs that the data is discounted completely by some. Many others are showing by their roster decisions that they are paying attention.

I won't disagree with the possibility of using technology. It still does not excuse the failure of the Twins management. The data has been available to them since 2008. They make roster decisions knowing that humans are judging strikes and balls. Mike Fast's study about the impact on runs scored came prior to the offseason the Twins signed Doumit and the Rays signed Molina. The Pirates completely change their catching core from very poor in 2011 to very good with the inning of Martin in 2013. Humans will be calling the strike zone in 2014. Will the Twins make excuses or changes?

Franks Viola was given 56 starts in his first two seasons. His second season he had an ERA+ of 77. Brad Radke led the league in home runs given up his first two seasons. They were both given a long sustained opportunity in the majors. They weren't pitching each start as if it was their last. I don't know if Hendriks was worth the same opportunity given his success in the minors. The Twins will never know. For his sake, I hope they release him and a team like the Pirates gives him a fresh start.

Jose Molina is 6'2" and at least 250. It is time the Twins start seeing strike zone management as a skill that is developed and acquired.

If the Twins want to find blame, they need only look in the mirror. While other teams are finding catchers skilled at managing the strike zone, the Twins have ignored or been ignorant of the data. Are the Twins also behind in developing this skill in their minor league catchers?

The best shot at a pitcher is Tanaka. While other pitchers may have better alternatives than Minnesota, Tanaka will have one option if the Twins win his posting bid. Can 40 million win this bid?

I am not sure anyone else would put him behind the plate other than in an emergency role. His framing deficit is so much worse than any other catcher.

This should probably be in a free agent targets thread. Do we have one yet? Someone will likely offer Ellsbury around 7 years at about 150 million. The Twins will have to outbid enough so that he would be willing to come to a team far from contention. Would it be wise to commit that many years to any outfielder in their 30s? This particular outfielder has only played two full seasons in his last four. Boston has the resources to give him a big contract. He wants to stay. The only way he is available is if Boston doesn't think it is a good risk. If it isn't a good risk for a large market team like Boston, isn't it an even greater risk for a mid market team?

The Indians story is a good one. They rank below the Twins in payroll so they didn't get here by spending money. Their pitching has been middling. Their defense below average. The one piece that his working well is their hitting. Their wOBA ranks seventh led by Kipnis and Cabrera. They also have had spectacular performances from Raburn and Gomes. They may make the playoffs but how does their performance this year guide the Twins? Who will be the Twins Jan Gomes? Where can Twins find a guy to sign for 1 million that will put up a .979 OPS like Raburn? Who will be their Kazmir and Kluber? Those four guys were worth 10.6 WAR. If the Twins can find four guys to come out of nowhere like those four, they can compete next year. How do they do that?