jorgenswest

He projects better. Last three seasons wRC+ Drew 92,80,109 Peralta 122,86,123 Both will likely move away from SS before end of contract. Perralta has more bat to make that work.

Probably similar. It is not just a pick. It is also cap money. With the money, the Twins have more flexibility. They can offer their first rounder above slot money or the can go the other direction and try to get a guy that fell out of the first round and go under slot with pick 1. Without that pick, any flexibility is lost. If it is clear that Drew would be a solid player at SS through 2016, the pick shouldn't matter. Given his injured past and aging curve defensively at SS, I don't think it would be a wise move beyond a one year deal. Pick or not. At one year, they can sign and trade and get a better prospect than a second round pick. If Drew was OK with one year, he would have taken the qualifying offer.

Even as regular DH, he will play enough in the field for other teams to see that he has not changed from awful defensively. If he is in LF, the Twins will have the worst defensive OF in baseball. Not a good match for the fly ball pitchers they added. Back to the thread, Florimon is the only Twins that has shown over his career that he is a plus defensive player. There is hope for Dozier to be above average, but he needs to to another step in that direction this year.

Plouffe is probably better in the field. Betemit would not be an upgrade. The Twins will likely carry 12 pitchers. The bench needs a catcher, middle infielder, 4th OF that can play CF and one more guy until a 13th pitcher is used. Is Betemit the best guy for that role?

They would need to find a team in need of a starting SS. He is out of options and can't be optioned. Are there any teams where he would be a clear upgrade that would also be willing to trade a prospect? I don't see it. I can see a trade in the summer when a team in contention loses a SS to injury. I can see a trade of two players out of options be swapped for each other as rosters are being set in March. Perhaps Minnesota can get 4th OF type that would have been otherwised DFA'd. The Twins have the most potential for upside by investing another season in him and seeing if he can improve his OBP.

I used play index to find all 30 year old starting shortstops from 2001 to 2010. There were 17. Of those 17, five were still starting at SS at 33. Rollins, Jeter, Gonzalez, Cabrera and Tejada. Others with good enough bats changed positions like Michael Young and Carlos Guillen changed positions. I think it is unlikely that Stephen Drew will be a solid starting SS in 2016. I wouldn't give up a pick for a shorter contract.

I think I agree. Finding shortstops that do both is difficult. Develop is the key word in my statement. He has the defense. Should the Twins invest plate appearances into his bat? I would give it one more year. Bats can develop towards adequate over time. At SS, it can't be done the other way. A player with a good bat and awful defense isn't going to become adequate defensively over time. They move to a less demanding position.

I am little more skeptical about the defense. The given span was 5 years. At that length, why not the whole career? Why not just the two years since injury? The 5 years include 2009-2011 which were the only three years that he didn't have a negative in either UZR or DRS. I think it reasonable to question how many more years Drew can play well defensively at shortstop. It may be a factor in his continued availability. If teams are giving up a pick, they want to get some longer term value. Is he still a good shortstop in 2016? Do the Twins want a liability at that position at a time many of the younger players reach the majors?

Florimon is either a starting shortstop or he doesn't have a major league job. He has no experience at other positions to play a utility role. The Twins can sign Drew and release Florimon. I don't see the parallel in trade value with Butera. Butera had options. Teams carry two or three catchers. Butera adds value towards developing pitchers in AAA. I can vision a midsummer trade if a team has a shortstop go down (like Peralta last year) and the Twins have enough confidence in Escobar or Santana to hand them the remainder of the seasons. That is two big ifs. I would keep Florimon as the starter and see how he develops. Plus defensive shortstops are not easy to develop. How many have the a Twins developed since Gagne?

Of the 8 pitchers in group A and B, there are 4 that have little upside for the long term. Pelfrey, Correia, Duensing and Swarzak should not be blocking the Twins from developing and investing innings into starters under team control. These starters will be critical to the long term health of the staff. The Twins stepped up and spent some money. They also need to be willing to eat that money when a short term player is performing at a mediocre level. The log jam moves from myth to reality when mediocre pitchers are chosen for the short term over giving consistent innings to a younger (likely to be struggling) starter of the future.

If the Twins are going to have a place holder up the middle, they should seek defense over offense. Poor defense and lack of range have repercussions on the development of the pitching staff. It leads to more men on base, longer innings and the earlier need for the bullpen. Florimon fits better as a place holder over Pressley who will be below average in CF. I also question whether there are many great defensive shortstops in the minors. I think they are as rare as great hitters. A great defensive shortstop will make it to the majors. A good defensive shortstop that can't hit needs some luck of opportunity. I am not sure if Florimon will be a great defensive shortstop of merely good with an opportunity.

I wonder if there were any players with less experience in the AFL this year. We will learn a lot more as he hits AA in 2014 or 2015. I did not read this scout's projection as a ceiling. At 20, the floor is flame out in AA and the ceiling is solid every day LF. I look forward to your reports as he hits AA and AAA.

The Twins have Worley and Diamond under team control through 2018 and Deduno through 2019. They all have upside of a 2-3 WAR pitcher. Pelfrey has the same upside. It is OK if the Twins end up having to DFA some of the three before assessing whether they can attain that upside as long as they get a pitcher with a significantly better upside. It isn't OK to replace them with a pitcher of the same upside and no control long term. Those are the decisions that will continue the cycle of mediocrity.

The most important aspect of the organization tied to long term health is developing starting pitchers with service time. Meyer and Gibson have the most upside. Gibson has shown he can get AAA hitters out. The Twins need to invest a spot in the starting rotation towards his development. They need to stick with him through the struggles as they did with Radke and Viola. Meyer needs to be in the rotation early in the season. Hughes and Nolasco are under contract long enough that the Twins need to stick with them through any struggle. Of the remaining pitcher, Worley probably has the most upside looking forward through 2016. An outline of a plan to try to develop starting pitching from within. This is not my prediction of what the Twins will do. I would assume Gardenhire will go with veterans with the contracts. I expect young pitchers will be shuttled back and forth to Rochester like Hendriks. Gardenhire is probably fighting for his job. HE may not be willing to invest innings in the struggles of young pitchers adjusting to major league hitting. Opening day Nolasco, Hughes, Pelfrey, Correia, Gibson Worley and Diamond are in pen. If Deduno has a good spring, he is in the rotation and Correia is in pen. This will create a log jam in pen. Perhaps an opportunity to trade Burton will occur. Duensing could be released. Thielbar and Fien have options. The upside of any potential starter must be retained. May 1 Assuming moderate success in AAA, add Meyer. Correia to pen even if he has his typically strong April. If Deduno was there to start and pitches well, be willing to cut loose Pelfrey. If everyone is pitching well... When was the last time that happened? The only way Meyer shouldn't come up early is if Deduno and Pelfrey are both pitching well. In that case, start looking for a trade partner for Pelfrey. There will be injuries during the season creating an opportunity for Worley and Diamond to re-establish themselves. If at the end of the season one of Worley, Diamond and Deduno show that they can be counted on, it will be a success. Gibson and Meyer just need to show signs of hope and be allowed to work through the struggle of adjusting to major league pitching.

There is a lot to like. Any long term contract will capture the prime of his career with little of the decline. There is no acquisition cost in terms of players traded or draft picks lost or used. Is there a pitcher with more upside on the roster than Tanaka? Meyer? Tanaka is only 1 year older than Meyer and younger than an other potential pitcher on the staff.

There were 58 left handed relievers that pitched at least 30 games in the majors last year. I took out pitchers with double digit saves to get to the 58. I didn't think comparing Duensing to a closer was a fair comparison. Of the 58, Duensing ranked in the bottom half in several varied measures like ERA+, K/9, BB/9, OPS+, WAR, RE24 It doesn't seem like there would be very much demand for performance at that level. A contending team should seek a better pitcher. A developing team would be wise to look for a younger long term solution. The Twins might be better off nontendering and looking for a younger long term solution. However, I think they should tender him and seek better solution. Take him to arbitration as long as they are willing to release him and eat the 2 million as soon as a better long term solution is on the roster. Note:I used baseball reference's play index to find and sort the data.

I wonder if Tanaka's status helped the Twins. Several teams are interested. Those that lose out will be going after Garza, Santana and Jimenez. There are more than 4 teams interested. Signing Nolasco early (perhaps by giving a year more than others offered at the time) may have beat the competition waiting for resolution on Tanaka. It appeared that Ryan didn't read the market correctly last year. This year he seems to be ahead of the game.

Should the Twins have said the same thing about Morneau in his second full season at 239/304/437? They gave him 543 plate appearances. He did nothing to earn his consistent regular opportunity that year. The Twins invested in his upside and received the pay off. The Twins have not invested that consistent playing time into Parmelee. A few other guys that received consistent playing time despite early struggles at the plate were Gaetti and Hunter. I did not include them with Cuddyer and Morneau because their gloves helped keep them on the field. All 4 players needed significant playing time before they were consistent contributors at the plate. Some of the new wave of prospects may struggle at the plate the first 1000 plate appearances. Are the Twins willing to invest playing time and let them work through their struggles or will they give it to no upside decline phase veterans? The Twins may have assessed that Parmelee does not have the upside of a major league regular. That assessment can only come from the observation of their staff. The data in a players first 600 plate appearance isn't near enough to support an assessment of future upside.

He hasn't had enough time to use the data and say he won't hit major league pitching. His OPS+ through 631 plate appearances is 98. Cuddyer through 1109 was 97. Morneau through 970 was 100. Investing plate appearances in those two team control assets was critical to the success of the previous decade. If the Twins believe Parmelee has the ceiling of a major league regular, they should have been investing more plate appearances. The Twins have a choice this year. They can play Willinghama or Kubel who will not be part of the future solution or they can invest regular playing time into Parmelee at a corner OF and see if he is part of the solution.

Compare Justin Morneau's first 2+ seasons. His slash line was 248/313/461. He had an OPS+ of 93 his second full season. They also invested 970 plate appearances in those seasons. There was no question that he would get playing time in his third season. Parmelee wasn't given a similar investment. Maybe his skills didn't warrant it, but that can not be determined by the data. With the exception of playing time, it is too similar. I think it was Bill James who once studied an experience managers preference for playing veteran players and impatience with younger players. If that is the case with Gardenhire, the Twins need to make a change soon before the rest of the prospects follow Arcia and Pinto to the big club. Maybe it isn't a concern. He did have tremendous patience with Hicks. He also didn't have another CF option on he roster for much of that time.

The Twins never gave him consistent play time. It could be that they assessed through in watching him in the organization that he does not have the skill of an everyday player. That assessment may be correct. If they believed he has that potential, they missed an opportunity to invest in that potential. How many extra wins did a Doumit give them last year while starting at DH or corner OF while Parmelee was on the bench? These are the choices teams in a cycle of mediocrity make. They play the higher floor low upside veteran over developing a younger player. It can take 1000 plate appearances for a player to develop. After 2+ seasons Parmelee isn't close. The Parmelee question should be a lot clearer now. Like Hendriks, who was not given a long consistent opportunity, the Twins must not believe in him. Will it be the same for Arcia? Will they allow him to work through his struggle, endure his defensive and base running mistakes and stick with him through games where it looks like he has no idea at the plate? The Twins better be willing to invest at bats and innings into this wave of prospects coming through they system and stick with them through the adjustment.

Perhaps another move is planned. The OF defense will be league bottom. Presley will be below average as a CF. Willingham and Arcia are poor in the corners. The Twins really need Hicks or Buxton as soon as the service time date passes.

Jerry Sands was just released and he was a better prospect. Fringe players out of options have little trade value. They might be able to swap him for another out of options player. If they could find an out of options CF from a team looking for a left handed bat it might work.

He is on the Alex Burnett journey. Teams shouldn't be able to claim a player knowing they are going to DFA him and claim another player. The hope is that they will go unclaimed and they are added to their minor league depth. Two possible solutions. Any player claimed in the winter must be on the 40 man (or 25 man if out of options) through opening day. Players during the season would need to remain for 60 days. Another solution would be - given the same time frame, if the player is DFA'd and makes it through waivers they return to the original organization. For instance if the Orioles DFA Hendriks and he goes unclaimed, he would return to Minnesota off the 40 man roster. Both solutions would prevent teams from claiming players that they know are not going to stay on their 40 man roster.

The Twins must develop pitchers with service time this year. Worley has better projections than Pelfrey because they are based on 3-4 years and Worley has been the better pitcher over that longer span. To toss him and his service time for two years of Pelfrey just keep the Twins in this cycle of mediocrity. He absolutely needs to be on the staff even if in the pen to start he year. Gibson needs to be in the rotation day 1. He has shown he can get AAA hitters out. He will only adjust to major league hitters in the majors. It took Viola two seasons of struggle. It took Radke 50 starts. If the Twins care about the long term health, they need to invest innings in their better prospects. It can't be the shuttle they put Hendriks on. The pitchers need to know they are going to get a long look. Meyer needs to be up early. If he has 8-10 good starts in AAA bring him up. The A's and Rays have brought up top pitching prospects at young ages. Meyer needs to be up and adjusting to major league pitching while his arm is fresh. If May pitches well, he needs a space somewhere midseason. The Twins season will be successful if they have some hope in some of these service time starters. Getting there will mean relegating Correia to the pen early on and being willing to dump Pelfrey by trade if he pitches well or release if he is no better than mediocre by midseason.