Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I am not sure how the bullpen stacked up last year. I would think the poor starting rotation led to a higher ratio of innings by the less talented relievers skewing any team data. Teams with starting pitching going late in games would have a greater ratio of innings pitched by their better relievers. Conclusions can't be drawn by looking at team date without doing something to balance the ratio of innings pitched by the better relievers. It doesn't really matter anyway. Last year is gone and using those number to project next year's numbers in a pen isn't very reliable. There is reason to be concerned after Perkins. Burton had a drop off last year. Fien hasn't done it long enough to reliably count on him repeating. The guys in the rest of the bullpen probably could not make the roster on a team with a pen like Kansas City. Fortunately, the depth of the starting pitching will flow into the pen. Swarzak will be pushed by Worley, Deduno and hopefully Correia. Duensing and Thielbar by Diamond. The pitching staff will be better next year.
  2. jorgenswest
    I would rather have Mastro in LF and Willingham at DH and I am hoping Hicks or someone else gets Mastro's roster spot. Collabello needs to hit much better to make up for the defensive cost. A bench bat will help the Twins but it has to be a guy at a Jim Thome level.
  3. jorgenswest
    The Twins have 4 bench spots that will be 3 at times when they have a 13 man pitching staff. Whether 3 or 4, there is no space for a bat only player unless they hit like Thome or Ortiz and DH. Colabello will never hit well enough or be useful defensively to have a major league career. In the days of 9, 10 or maybe even 11 man pitching staffs there was space for a right handed bench bat. Randy Ruiz could have had a career 40 years ago. Possibly Colabello also. He would at least have been given a long enough look. Colabello's only hope is to be on a team that has an opening at 1B. That isn't the Twins. He is the sensible player to remove from the 40.
  4. jorgenswest
    I don't think it is a guarantee that Correia is in the rotation. The Twins need to consider a bullpen/6th starter role for him. He is a good fit for the pen. He holds on runners. He maintains the same level performance or better with runners on base. He has a track record of health. Gibson needs to be in the rotation from opening day. Meyer needs to be up early before he has too many high pitch count games in AAA. I would advocate for opening day, but certainly after he shows any success in 10 AAA starts. They can't give up on Worley. He needs to be in the pen and work his way out. His projections are better than any other starter other than Nolasco because they are based on 3-4 years. He was awful last year. Simply using last year to project the next year is not very reliable. Deduno looked good last year, but his longer track record is shaky. I would hope the Twins give him a short leash in the rotation to start the year (Correia in pen). If he is successful, they can trade Pelfrey for anything they can get and make room for Meyer. Diamond has one good year behind him. Does he profile in the pen? I think he has the least upside of the three pitchers with out options. He is left handed and that may keep him around. Ideally, the Twins end the season with three pitchers in the rotation with service time that they can count on for the next few years while Correia spends the year in the pen and Pelfrey has some BABIP luck and is traded for something mid summer.
  5. jorgenswest
    Willingham needs to DH. If he plays the field, he will do so as the bottom LF. His ability to play LF isn't going to change if he DHs. Teams know what they will get from him in the field. Playing DH doesn't decrease his value. His lack of range in LF decreases his value. His value is all bat. Benefits to playing DH... - Willingham is more likely to remain healthy. He has no value injured. - The pitching staff will have better defense behind them resulting in better numbers and better value. The problem is that with Willingham on the roster the twins did nothing to try to find a LF. They don't have a good solution to play that position until Buxton and Hicks or Rosario are ready.
  6. jorgenswest
    I had hoped they would let Willingham go in August to the Orioles and found someone this winter that can play defense. Keeping him only makes sense if he has trade value midseason. All of his value tied to his bat and health. The DH role gives the best hope of maximizing his value. There doesn't appear to be a good solution for outfield defense on opening day, but Buxton and Hicks are close. Rosario would have been also.
  7. jorgenswest
    Fryer is valuable in a role of working with pitchers in Rochester. I am not sure the Twins would lose him if they took him off the 40, but I do think he has more value to the organization that Colabello. Vargas and Hicks are both at an age where they need to be playing AAA and AA next year. With Mauer's move to first, Colabello is squeezed at both ends.
  8. jorgenswest
    Arcia career in minors RF 239 games CF 77 games LF 33 games Nick Franklin would be an asset to any team. I am not sure he is a good fit at SS. If he has a future as a 2B and corner OF, the Twins may have a similar player in Rosario. Would you trade Rosario for him? Probably wouldn't be enough. Franklin is further along on the growth curve and might be able to play SS. Rosario and Burton?
  9. jorgenswest
    How is the 0.5 computed? Projection based? 2013 numbers? Single season WAR is much better for describing what happened than what will happen. It should not be used as an evaluation tool for projecting the future.
  10. jorgenswest
    There were three viable veteran catchers left for the Twins to consider. Doumit Buck Suzuki Though all are below average defenders, Suzuki is significantly better. I am glad they chose the glove over the bat at this key defensive position. Suzuki also has more experience playing for winning teams. Not sure how much it matters, but it can't hurt.
  11. jorgenswest
    It is essential long term that the Twins develop starting pitching with several years under team control. They can't do that with short term mediocre starters in the rotation. Meyer needs to be in the rotation early if not opening day. He needs to adjust to the majors with a reasonably fresh arm. The a Twins don't need a repeat of those high pitch count games that Gibson had in AAA. Gibson needs to be in the rotation opening day. Correia seems like he would be a good fit in the pen. He holds on runners. He maintains his performance with runners on base. He has a long record of health. He can be called on to start for a dtd pitcher without needing to call up someone from AAA. Pelfrey is the opposite. A poor fit in the pen. His performance drops with runners on base. If Worley, Deduno or Diamond get the opportunity to displace Pelfrey and find success, it will get a good sign for the long term.
  12. jorgenswest
    it is intuitive that the wear in the body of a catcher would effect their hitting. There aren't enough examples to study for a trend. Biggio was a much better hitter after he left catching, but he left younger before his prime. Bench had a poor year hitting as a 3B following an injury riddled last year as a catcher, but he was a little older and probably not healthy. Torre had a monster year in 1971 following his last year as a catcher, but he also didn't catch in 1969.
  13. jorgenswest
    I saw that. The forward should be ok. ZIPS is based on the previous 4 years of performance. Would those numbers have been better had Mauer been a 1B? He certainly would have played more games. I don't think ZIPS backward adjusts for a positional change. The only way it might matter is a move from catcher.
  14. jorgenswest
    Adding mediocre players for the short term to a bad team simply adds to the cycle of mediocrity. The Twins need to develop mid rotation starters that have service time and will be with the teams as the prospects arrive. Best case - Pelfrey pitches well enjoys some BABIP luck and is flipped at the deadline. Less damaging case - He is really bad and released like Marquis or significantly injured and all the Twins lose is a little money. Worst case - He performs as a 4th starter in the rotation for two years and the Twins lose the opportunity to invest innings towards developing a mid rotation starter.
  15. jorgenswest
    Arroyo may not have any good years left. I hope the Twins don't sign him for 2.
  16. jorgenswest
    Last year, the ZIPS and others projected the Twins offense to significantly decline from 2012. It was written about and largely disregarded on TD. Players in their 30s as a group decline. Players in their 30s who did not play a full season in the previous year gave a greater chance of decline. The Mauer projection is reasonable if he were to remain a catcher. ZIPS doesn't factor in the position change.
  17. jorgenswest
    No reason for Collabello to be on the 40. Kubel signing makes it even less likely he would get playing time. A younger defensive shortstop is a greater need in the organization.
  18. jorgenswest
    He does poorly in the pitch receiving metrics. That probably doesn't matter to the Twins. Must matter to some teams. Any catcher slightly below average to very good in this metric were signed quickly or moved in the trade market. The guys perennially below average like Buck and Suzuki remain. It is unfair to put Suzuki with Buck though. While Suzuki is below average, Buck is in Doumit range. The Twins missed on the catcher market this year. They can't go back. Suzuki is probably the best of what is left.
  19. jorgenswest
    ...and the cycle of mediocrity continues.
  20. jorgenswest
    Maybe the a Twins are correct. Maybe it is meaningless. Did Buck's defense really cost the mets 20 runs last year? Did LuCroy save his team 31? I hope they don't sign Buck.
  21. jorgenswest
    I am sure the Twins agree with you. The Rays believe that guys like Molina and hangman save them as much as a half a run per game by framing. Compared to poor framers like Doumit the difference is greater. The pirates and Yankees are certainly on board. The Dodgers look to have changed by their quotes and their roster decisions during last season.
  22. jorgenswest
    Suzuki is well below average when it comes to receiving pitches as measured by PitchFX. Those catchers are gone and went fast. Remaining are the poor receivers like Buck and Suzuki. The Twins decision making about catchers shows they don't value the data related to framing. I hope they are right.
  23. jorgenswest
    The Twins are probably one of few organizations that would put a John Buck behind the plate. Any team paying even a little attention to pitch fx data as it relates to catchers would not consider signing him.
  24. jorgenswest
    Some team will offer a good starting pitching prospect for Anderson. I think it will be someone better than Berrios. If he goes for less or a package of lower prospects, it would be a sign that the A's are concerned about his health. In fact, simply being on the block may be that sign. As for signing an extension, I would think Anderson would want to build value towards a big contract in two years. He isn't going to sign an extension at his low point. Let's suppose he is very good and wants to test the market in two years. Worst case the twins trade him at the deadline and get a Jean Segura type prospect in return. There is no better currency at the deadline than starting pitching.
  25. jorgenswest
    I would think the only thing that would keep Doumit from catching is valid concerns about his long term health. I don't think anyone has ever questioned his character, effort or willingness to play hurt. It is too bad that players with more talent don't have his heart. However, signing Doumit to a 2 year 7 million dollar contract extension on 2012 was a foolish decision. It was easy to project that his league bottom defense would only get worse as he aged. The Twins still don't know about Parmelee. It can take 1000 plate appearances to see the skill in a player. Parmelee should be near that point. He isn't close. A player benefits from consistent playing time. Parmelee has had very few stretches of regular playing time. The Twins should have invested many of Doumit's at bats in Parmelee. There is no guarantee that Parmelee will be a useful player. If he had a consistent shot, the twins would probably know entering 2014. I wrote at the time that signing guys like Doumit only adds to the cycle of mediocrity. It is time to release him now. The 7 million is gone. It's time to end the cycle.
×
×
  • Create New...