jorgenswest

In order to get out of the cycle of mediocrity, the Twins are going to need to invest in the uncertainty of upside. Playing mediocre veterans just adds to the cycle and adds nothing to the future. When Hicks struggled and the plan B Mastroianni was injured there was no viable plan C. The same could happen this year if Pinto is made the starter and struggles while Suzuki is injured. Eric Fryer will be the Clete Thomas of catchers. Most young players are going to struggle. It takes a lot of plate appearances to adjust and readjust to major league pitching. I hope the Twins make that investment in Pinto so by 2016 he is either established as a regular or the Twins have moved on. If the Twins base decisions on catcher this year based on Hicks' struggles last year, it will be a mistake.

Should a team projected for another losing season go with the certain mediocrity of a veteran or the uncertain upside of a 25 year old rookie? It is not as clear at catcher with the added responsibility of working with a mostly veteran pitching staff. i would go with upside and let the rookie catcher work with the veteran pitchers.

Kubel, Parmelee and Arcia. It doesn't make sense to take three left handed RF/DH. The Twins have to make the correct assessment on Parmelee. If he can be a valuable platoon player under team control, they must keep him. It would be a much easier decision if they had invested 1000 plate appearances in him rather than playing Doumit. What did they gain? An extra win? Arcia needs to be in the majors. Kubel or Parmelee. Which direction should they go? I would go with the player more likely to provide a useful piece on the next contending team. It could be Kubel if he can hit like he did in 2012 and the a Twins can trade him. The Twins must know that is very unlikely.

For the sake of the player, I hope this rule is changed. Teams select players knowing that they will designate them in a few weeks. It had significant cost to Burnett last year and has to have been at least unsettling to Liam. It is an easy fix. If claimed in the offseason the player must remain on the 40 (or 25 if out of options) through June 1. If claimed during season, player must remain on 40 (or 25) for 60 days. This will give the player a long enough shot with new team and guarantee that the team is truly interested in their services. If the acquiring team chooses to designate the player before deadline, he would return to original team once waivers are cleared (similar to rule 5). Players on the fringe busting their tails to play in the majors deserve better.

There will be inconsistencies in any measure. Is the argument that the Twins are wise in ignoring the data in making roster decisions? Perhaps they see the same inconsistencies pointed out above.

I don't see the same variability. The range in total framing runs is 23-33. Home runs has ranged 36-54 in same time span. The same players are at the top. Molina made the leaderboard in spite of three different teams and pitching staffs. The run numbers on the negative are getting smaller, but that could be a result of team awareness of the skill. I do notice three players on the leaderboards happened to be available by free agency or trade this winter. The Twins found a guy on the wrong side of that leaderboard. Maybe the Twins are correct and the Rays, Pirates, Yankees and others are wrong in seeking and acquiring players who do well in this measure.

Swarzak should be on a list of concerns. He led relievers in innings last year. Relievers are the most volatile in performance particularly following seasons of heavy use. The Twins should not be assuming he will match his performance from 2014. Projections on fangraphs show an increase in FIP and ERA resulting from an increased walk and home run rate.

Good point about god preparation. My interest is Pinto getting enough playing time over the next two years do that in 2016 he is settled in as a regular or it is known he can't hit or field the position. That doesn't happen if he sits on the bench because the Twins do not to have a third catcher and Gardy won't risk using him.

It has come up in each of the broadcasts. The commentary goes something like "Pinto might be able to be that right handed bat off the bench or DH when he isn't catching" Gladden will reply that you couldn't use him that way. What if the starter gets injured and you used your back up or he is a DH? Is this a reasonable line of planning for a manager? Is every time you might lost the opportunity to pinch hit really worth the cost of the very unlikely event the starting catcher will get injured and Escobar would have to play a few innings at the plate? Is it really worth putting Doumit in RF and endure certain poor fielding just in case he is at DH when the starter is injured? Why not have Pinto start 100 games at catcher and another brunch at DH? Why not use him to pinch hit when he is on the bench? He is a key to the 2016 team. By that time we don't want to be wondering like we are about Parmelee. He needs to have enough plate appearances (1000) by 2016 so he has gone through the back and forth of adjusting with the league. Often the source of the mythical sophomore slump. What's the plan in the very unlikely event that Suzuki is injured after Pinto has pinch hit? Why not Mauer? The likelihood that an emergency catcher is ever needed is very small. If needed, the likelihood that a concussion will result in an inning or two of catching is equally as small. Mauer takes a greater risk every time he goes to the plate than he will in the role of emergency catcher. There are at most 13 spots for position players. Let's use them well.

Parmelee has yet to get consistent playing time. At this point, he should have over 1000 plate appearances. That hasn't happened because of options like Doumit and now Kubel. If the Twins are certain he will not be a useful major league player, they were wise not to invest the at bats. If that is the case, why is he still around? I am certain Kubel will not be part of the next successful run. I am certain Paremelee won't either without the consistent opportunity. If Kubel is on the roster out of spring training, they may as well DFA Parmelee. There won't be enough at bats for him to develop. Ninety loss teams should be looking to get younger. They should be looking to find pieces for the next successful run. Signing decline phase players in attempt to be mediocre just stalls the return. The Twins don't even do that well. They would have to improve to be mediocre. Dave Fleming wrote an article projecting surprise teams for 2014. The Twins didn't do well. The first two listed factors were 2013 batter age and pitcher age. The Twins had their second oldest roster in the last 15 years in 2013. http://www.billjamesonline.com/which_team_will_surprise_in_2014_/?utm_medium=referral&utm_source=pulsenews Let's hope they fare better on this list next spring. They can choose to invest consistent playing time in Parmelee, Arcia, Gibson, Meyer, Worley, Pinto, Tonkin, Hicks or Escobar or they can choose to give it to Kubel, Suzuki, Bartlett, Pelfrey, Correia, Willingham and Guerrier.

The Twins need both a catcher and a shortstop. Florimon and Suzuki are not adequate in the long term. It comes down to who is more likely to be a regular on a playoff team. Pinto or Gregorius? Unless it is clear it is Gregorius, stick with Pinto.

Thought on umpires... If you don't believe in the data because of umpires, than you certainly can't believe in pitcher strike outs and walks where fewer umpires would have a greater influence on the smaller sample. Thought on developing catchers... Ben Lindbergh did several interviews last year with catchers and coaches from teams that seemed to be using the data. Jose Molina credits his development and growth to Tony Pena and Joe Girardi. Others speak about how much they work on the skill. The data set is large enough so that catchers can look at it by zone or by pitch. They can be aware of where they are losing strikes or which pitches they lose strikes on. They can use video study to see how their technique differs from other catchers who are getting those strikes. This skill can absolutely be developed. If the Twins don't believe in the data, they are wise not to invest the time. They are wise not to pay for the skill when acquiring catchers. Let other teams waste the time and pay for the skill they don't trust. I hope the Twins are on the right side of this argument.

Good work. The correlation suggests it is a skill. Once teams are willing to acknowledge it is a skill and trust the metric, the skill can be improved. Analysis can point out zones and pitch types of strength and weakness in a catcher. Video study can show technique that can be improved with those zones and pitches. Work can be done throughout the minors. There is no reason an athletic catcher can't improve in this skill. Particularly those young and in the minors. The first step is for the Twins to acknowledge and trust the metric. I don't think they are there yet.

What about Escobar? Drew doesn't project well. Over the next three years, he is projected (Oliver per fangraphs) for the same WAR as Escobar with Drews declining and Escobar increasing slightly. Projecting three years and even next year is difficult but the projection methods produce better results than using the previous year to project the next year. While both are projected at 4.9 WAR over the next three years, Drew is more certain to be at that mediocre level. Escobar may never get the chance, not improve or he may take a step with his bat to go with the glove and exceed that level. The Twins sign Drew and they will likely need to DFA Escobar and any upside. That's fine if they get 2.5-3 WAR per year over the contract. Is that reasonable in a shortstop on the wrong side of the aging curve?

The Twins waited too long to call up Gibson last year. He had two high pitch count outings for Rochester after the time he should have been called up. It was reported that his velocity was sitting at 94 even into the late innings in a May Rochester game. He was 91-92 with the Twins later in the season. Meyer and Gibson need to enter the majors this year with their best stuff. They will need it as they learn to adjust to major league pitching. They need to put Gibson in the rotation to open the season. Meyer needs to be there by May 1 (if not opening day). Correia does well from the bullpen.

I thought they should have let the Orioles have him when he was claimed last August. My biggest concern was they would do nothing to address left field if he was still on the roster. The Twins have a big left field. They need a younger player with range. With Willingham on the roster, they didn't go out and find one. Instead they signed another DH in Kubel guaranteeing the outfield with the poorest range in baseball. There will be a lot of fly balls. Target Field suppresses home runs. They just signed two fly ball pitchers. The plan for outfield does not make sense. The decision to retain Willingham only makes sense if he is the regular DH.

The Twins appear to have several good pitching prospects in the system. It is critical they develop these prospects into major league assets. They have not shown much success in those areas. They might look to organizations like the Cards, A's and Rays. How have they been able to continually find young pitchers? Not only do the pitchers find success but they arrive at the majors at a younger age. I think the following is important. - A pitcher must be moved aggressively enough to struggle and learn how to work through it at the minor league level. They will be better prepared to handle the struggle they will certainly encounter at the major league level. They need their confidence shaken and build the character to work through it. - A pitcher aging curve on fangraphs won an award at SABR this year. It is far different than hitter. Velocity and strike outs begin their decline at an early age. The Twins need to have a plan for their pitchers to reach the majors at younger ages than hitters. They need to make the most of the velocity. This is a link to the first in the series http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/pitcher-aging-curves-introduction/ The velocity of Gibson, Meyer and May is likely already in decline. Gibson and Meyer, in particular, need to be in the majors this year. Other teams would do it. May needs to arrive also. The top prospects like Berrios and Stewart need to be pushed more aggressively than one step at a time. The Twins need to make the most of their velocity at the major league level. If they happen to draft a college pitcher, they need to look at the path of guys like Sonny Gray and Michael Wacha. The Twins have some young talented pitchers. I am certain Seth is spot on in his projections. This is consistent with the the Twins practice in previous years. It doesn't appear consistent with some other organizations that have successfully developed young pitching. Do the Twins the correct plan for developing the talent? It is critical for their future success.

Home run rate stabilizes at 170 regular season plate appearances. A home run off of Wainwright or 5 off of AAAA are equally meaningless in determining a roster spot.

There are two teams with winning records the last three seasons in the Grapefruit League. The Twins and Tigers. In fact, the Twins have the longest string of winning records and haven't had a losing season since 2007 thanks to the performance of players like Aaron Hicks, Luke Hughes, Cole DeVries and Matt Maloney. ... and it means nothing. Spring training records and individual stat lines have no meaning. They shouldn't be used to argue that one player or another should make the roster. Think otherwise? Let's argue here. Let's avoid arguing the meaning of these numbers in every post about who should make the roster. I would suggest that we avoid using any spring training stats, but that isn't reasonable. The best I can hope for is that they would simply be ignored. They still have a place. I look at them. They tell a story of the games. They add to my enjoyment of following the Twins in the spring. If Luke Hughes or Aaron Hicks or Miguel Sano have a multi home run game, I enjoy the moment. I also realize that they can not be used to argue whether a player should make the team. I am not suggesting that battles for roster spots are not won in spring training. They will be and should be. The Twins staff will see these players every day. They will see the bat speed, the approach at the plate, the defensive fundamentals and range, the movement on the pitches and the effectiveness of a new pitch. Players will improve in strength or have worked their tail off this winter to get in better shape. Parker may be able to show video of an improved swing. The experienced coaching staff will see the skills and evaluate. The jobs will be won or lost in those eyes. It can't be the numbers. Let's not use them to support arguments about roster spots. When used to argue roster, let's ignore them. Meanwhile let's look forward to the Twins taking the field and continuing their reign as the Grapefruit Kings.

Jeter has 94 career offensive WAR. Second among shortstops.

Jeter's defense through age 30 was close to average. Other guys like Banks, Yount and eventually Ripken moved off shortstop. All of them would have been liabilities in the field had they played shortstop late into their 30s. Jeter is a great player and worthy hall of famer that in the context of shortstops is much closer to Babe Ruth than Jim Rice.

If he signs a 4 year deal, isn't he still under team control at the end of the 4 years? Wouldn't it be arbitration? Why would he be able to walk sooner than other players?

Thanks for the reasoned assessment. Long term, any investment of innings into Meyer, Gibson or any of the three under team control out of options guys will help in future years. What's is this year's cost (in wins) risk in giving them starts over Correia or even Pelfrey?

I don't think it will be a successful season. That level is at least 90+ wins. I fear that the cycle of mediocrity will continue. Too many plate appearances or innings will be given to decline phase players. Last year was only the second time since 1998 that the average pitcher and hitter age was over 28. 2010 was the other season. It seems the Twins are headed for a third. The Twins took an intentional change in direction in 1999 where they stopped filling the gaps with decline phase players where the average hitter/pitcher ages were both under 27. I was hoping 2014 would take on that same change in direction. If that happens, the season won't be a success, but it will be a step towards success. The last two pockets of seasons where the Twins went young were 1982-1983 and 1999-2000. In those seasons the average age for hitters/pitchers was below 27. Both pockets were a step towards the successful runs from 1987-1992 and 2002-2010.