jorgenswest

Sample sizes for a few ratios are becoming large enough to consider. For pitchers, strike out rate stabilizes at 70 batters faced and ground ball and fly ball rate stabilizes at 70 balls in play. By stabilizing, that doesn’t necessarily mean it is the new expected rate. It does mean that any significant changes from previous year cannot be written off to small sample size. For minor leaguers a drop or change likely coincides with a step up in classification and the necessary adjustment. It is also important to note that the 70 is a major league threshold. I am not aware of minor league research in this area. It is reasonable to assume that k-rate and ground ball rate would stabilize earlier than other rates. Looking at the levels [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] Minnesota Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Ricky Nolasco 31.5 MIN 134 10% 20% 50% 41% Kyle Gibson 26.7 MIN 129 12% 18% 51% 51% Kevin Correia 33.8 MIN 125 10% 13% 42% 42% Phil Hughes 28 MIN 121 22% 19% 31% 30% Mike Pelfrey 30.4 MIN 119 8% 15% 42% 44% Samuel Deduno 30.9 MIN 83 22% 16% 49% 58% Anthony Swarzak 28.8 MIN 69 10% 18% 46% 44% [/TABLE] A lot has been written about Pelfrey. The 8% strike out rate won’t cut it. Nolasco has a significant drop in strike out rate. A little of the drop can be attributed to switching leagues. His pitch mix in his early starts was very different than with the Dodgers. He was throwing more 4 seam fastballs and fewer sliders with the Twins. Maybe the Twins staff took notice. Yesterday’s game was the first Twin start in which he threw more sliders than 4-seam fastballs. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 565] Rochester Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Kris Johnson 29.7 ROC/MIN 113 [/TD] 22% 17% 50% 50% Alex Meyer 24.4 ROC 112 31% 30% 41% 57% Scott Diamond 27.9 ROC 105 13% 10% 35% 45% Trevor May 24.8 ROC 96 32% 24% 33% 38% Logan Darnell 25.3 ROC 88 24% 19% 41% 49% Yohan Pino 30.5 ROC 85 32% 22% [TD]30% 35% [/TABLE] Meyer, May and Pino haven’t hit the 70 ball in play threshold for groundball rate to be stabilized due to their high strike out counts. I am looking forward to seeing May and Meyer in the majors. May’s mix may be similar to Phil Hughes and perhaps Target field will be a good match for him. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] New Britain Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Taylor Rogers 23.5 NBR 117 22% 16% 42% 53% Pat Dean 25.1 NBR 113 18% 12% 44% 40% Sean Gilmartin 24.1 NBR 99 23% 18% 31% 38% D.J. Baxendale 23.5 NBR 93 13% 18% 47% 33% Matt Summers 24.8 NBR 76 17% 17% 53% 44% [/TABLE] Gilmartin’s rate should be followed. The increase could be explained by the drop from AAA to AA. It may also be a return to when he was seen as a good prospect. At some point, he will hit AAA and hopefully the improved strike out rate will follow him. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] Fort Myers Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Tyler Duffey 23.5 FTM/NB 119 15% 18% 35% 44% Jose Berrios 20.1 FTM 114 18% 22% 39% 41% Mason Melotakis 23 FTM 94 19% 18% 50% 46% Alex Wimmers 25.6 FTM 81 16% 23% 45% 26% Steven Gruver 25 FTM 74 14% 23% 54% 50% Tim Shibuya 24.8 FTM 70 13% 17% 69% 48% [/TABLE] I would expect Berrios’ numbers to improve as he adjusts to high A. Wimmers hasn’t pitched much either year. Let’s hope he can find the talent that made him a late first round pick. [TABLE=class: grid, width: 564] Cedar Rapids Age Team BF 2014K% 2013K% 2014GB% 2013GB% Aaron Slegers 21.8 CR 116 23% 27% 61% 60% Ryan Eades 22.5 CR 114 21% 19% 31% 48% Kohl Stewart 19.7 CR 98 17% 29% 49% 43% Felix Jorge 20.4 CR 82 17% 29% 37% 48% Ethan Mildren 23 CR 72 25% 19% 65% 51% Josue Montanez 22.4 CR 70 27% 14% 37% 42% [/TABLE] Sleger’s combination of strike outs and ground balls is encouraging. A midseason call up to Fort Myers seems reasonable. Walk rate stabilizes next for pitchers at 170 plate appearances. I have looked for when pitch level data rates (swing and miss rate) stabilizes, but have not seen it. Since there are more pitch events than batters faced or balls in play events, I would guess that some of those rates have stabilized.

Collabello and Kubel should platoon when Arcia is ready. That is assuming Gardenhire will platoon. He talks about going with the hot hand all of the time which is counter to platooning. The idea of platooning is that you have a good game against the opposite hand and you sit the following day against the same hand. Gardenhire would advocate for playing the guy following a good game.

The Orioles took him off the 40. The Twins did the same in the spring of that year. I think Pedro can be optioned off the 25 but not removed from the 40.

The Twins are stuck with him. I sure he will have a few starts that look ok to give irrational hope that he might be a number 3 starter. There is no reason to sign a back of the rotation pitcher to multiple years. They are available every year. Hughes and Pelfrey need to be close to league average and Nolasco better than league average. If the Twins aren't right on 2 of 3, their winter was a failure that will have implications on future teams.

After 4-4 tonight, it is time for Every Day Eddie

Every Day Eddie?

This would be a reason to change management. If Dozier can play SS, the Twins can't afford to close their minds to the possibility. Shortstops are much more costly to acquire than second basemen. I would play Escobar through the all star break. If he isn't close to OK with the bat, give Dozier a shot following the break.

With the double header Thursday, Sunday's starter is out of sync? Do the Twins give Gibson the start in short rest? Do they get Deduno ready to take the start? Do they call up a 26th man to be the starter on Thursday? Looking at the Rochester rotation, it could be Trevor May. They have said they will start Nolasco and Pelfrey. Do they call up a starter from Rochester for Sunday? It would by Alex Meyer's start (at least it will be his normal rest). That would involve a roster move on the 25 and 40.

It is time. The Twins burned too many of Gibson's pitches in the minors last year. Meyer is ready to struggle in the majors. Struggle is an important part of growth and there isn't enough struggle matched up against AAA pitchers.

Suzuki will have the trade value. Catchers are tough to find. Someone will lose a catcher and there will be little on the market. My fear is that instead of trading him, the a Twins will extend him into his decline. The trio of DHs in their 30s will have little value even if they put up a couple of good months. There won't be enough certainty in their return. Teams are smart enough to know that first half stats don't predict second half stats. There will also be a supply of DH types that have had a poor first half that will be virtually free like Reynolds and Kubel last year. I am sure many will complain that the a Twins should have sold high, but the reality does not match that hope.

I agree. I would think the same is true for most free agent signings. Once signed it is a matter of performing below, at or above the level of contract.

Drew came into this season ranked 23rd in projected WAR among shortstops. That makes him an upgrade for several teams including the Twins. However, at his age the ranking should not be expected to improve in 2015 and 2016. At some point he will need to move off of SS defensively without the bat to be a regular anywhere else. N one wants to pay for that. The Twins certainly have experience signing guys in their early 30s and watching them decline I. The second or third year of the commitment. He fits so much better on a team with a starting pitching staff that makes them real contenders and a need this year at SS. That describes the Tigers a lot better than the Twins. My guess is that he hasn't been willing to listen to one year offers. It is hard to blame him. A few years back teams were willing to pay based on a strong previous season that wasn't in line with his career. Teams are smarter now in their projections. They know better than to overpay or trade for a player based on a single outlying season.

Pelfrey may not fit a bullpen role very well. His performance drops significantly with runners on base. It would work best if he came in to start an inning. Long relievers almost always enter mid inning with runners on base.

Adding to Seth's comment... The Twins have moved their better prospects in June over the last two years. Arcia (June 14), Sano (June 9) and Buxton (June 23). I wouldn't expect Polanco to move before mid June. There are a lot of reasons for that timeline. Most importantly, it give the player a long stretch at the level and it takes more than a hot month. Additionally, short season leagues begin and drafted players will begin signing so players are naturally getting shuffled. Minor league all star games are in June and affiliates appreciate having their stars participate. Waiting until mid June on any prospect will not alter their development.

I like the idea of Mauer. It would not be an easy shift and he is sure to get abuse on this site for any errors. As for Parmelee, he has played well but it might be wise to wait and see at least two months of consistent solid play.

It was reported in the broadcast that Plouffe is day to day. Let's hope he can play tomorrow. If not, it leaves the Twins thin in the infield. With Gibson and his ground ball tendencies starting, it makes sense to play a Escobar and hope Plouffe is ready by Tuesday. The option to pinch hit for either is limited. I guess Herrmann played a game at 3B in AA with no chances. Long term there are no good solutions. Nunez is on the 40, but would be far below average offensively and defensively at 3B. Bernier and Romero have OBP at .400 or better this year and have better gloves than Nunez. They deserve the opportunity. There is little risk in taking Raley or Wilson off the 40, though I don't know if Wilson can be dropped yet. Why not drop to 12 pitchers and bring up Bernier or Romero? How long can they go with two guys on the bench and limited ability to pinch it for a Florimon and Escobar?

Correia fits the pen better than Pelfrey. He holds on runners well. He has a history of arm health and can probably go on consecutive days if needed. He has done the role before. His performance doesn't drop when runners are on base. Pelfrey doesn't fit any of those. He would need to come in to start an inning as his performance drops with runners on base. His arm may not bounce back as well. Deduno as a starter over Correia is the move. Deduno is groundball pitcher. The poor defense in the OF will be less of a factor. Start him and keep Florimon at SS in his starts.

I wonder if Drew is better off waiting until June 4. He might believe that his value will be better at that point and he will have multiple teams competing for him. Why sign now? The only way this works is if Boras is in the middle of it and there is certainty he will sign. I am not sure that Boras would play ball. The signing would have to come first and the trust would have to be with the Red Sox. Would it be collusion?

Outfield defense is probably the greatest need. Fuld is better than Mastro.

...are you saying you would have Mastro as the 25th man when Arcia and Willingham returns given his defensive skill in CF? Herrmann? 13th pitcher? I think that is the discussion. We could argue the many flaws of a 25th man, but which has the most to offer?

I don't doubt that finding any major league role that fits Nunez is some wishful thinking. I wonder where super utility players (IF/OF) like Bonifacio are developed. In his case, he played middle infield in the minors and arrived at age 22. He first played CF in the majors in 2009 and in 2010 he played 18 games of CF in the minors at age 25. He not a good CF or a good SS, but has an important role. I would guess that virtually all players who end up in a utility role start as middle infielders exclusively in the minors. Why not play Nunez some in CF at AAA? Farris and Rahl are the other options in Rochester.

Herrmann gets Pinto in the game at DH. However when Willingham and Arcia return, I would think Colabello is the DH. In that case, Pinto needs to get his starts at catcher. I don't see how Herrmann gets any playing time in the outfield or behind the plate. I do see a value in Mastroianni in backing up in CF and pinch running. Unfortunately he swings from Hicks' stronger side and isn't a good fit for giving a day off against a tough righty. I see more value in Nunez playing a super utility role. Pinch running. Pinch hitting for Florimon. Occasional starts in infield when a fly ball pitcher is pitching. I hope he continues to play the OF in AAA. They don't have a CF right now so put him there. Maybe he can be a Bonifacio type role player on this team for a handful of years.

I was aware. It seemed a reasonable option to consider in the role the Twins envisioned Bartlett.

When Arcia and a Willingham return, it could come down to choosing from the following for the 25 13th pitcher - Tonkin 3rd catcher - Herrmann 5th OF/CF2 - Mastroianni 2nd utility - Nunez The Twins management might say there is little reason to discuss, but which role is most valuable to the Twins right now?

I wouldn't give up anything for a 32 outfielder whose game is based on speed. He would help the Twins tie a franchise record of most players in their 30s rostered. In 1991, they played 15. This year, 14 thus far. Fuld and Guerrier can put them over the top.