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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I have been following his games and the strike zone at Brooks Baseball. I am encouraged to see the called strikes in the bottom quarter of the zone. In yesterday's start, Hendriks had no balls called on pitches in the strike zone. There were four called strikes in the bottom quarter of the zone. I posted the graphic of his first start at catcher which was also very solid. Sure it is a small sample, but I am not sure we could find any Doumit game as solid.
  2. jorgenswest
    It seems I can be convinced by every argument. I would have been excited for his signing. Shortstop is a definite need and very difficult to find. On the other nand, secondbasemen are not great trade pieces unless they are very good for multiple years. I am not sure any of the three will ever qualify as a good trade piece. It is worth a risk at shortstop. The cost of Nishioka was 11.32 million at a time when Twin revenues were at a peak. Wouldn't the Guerrero risk be much more? It comes down to assessment of his ability to play shortstop.
  3. jorgenswest
    I was hopeful the Twins would sign him. However, he only helps if he is at least an average defender at SS. If he has to play 2B as some reports suggest, he is not a good fit at the reported contract. The Twins have two low cost solutions at 2B. The Dodgers are in a better spot. They need a 2B. They have enough resources to risk millions on a players that may not be very good.
  4. jorgenswest
    Is it necessary to attack a player simply for working hard and being called up? Is there any other way to express displeasure for the decisions of the Twins management? I hope some will reconsider and edit or delete their posts.
  5. jorgenswest
    Do they platoon Parmelee and Colabello? The must have a plan for him by calling him up. I know the sample and data is to small to have meaning. They must have assessed that Parmelee has made some adjustments. Doumit not catching they rest of the year. I hope that will continue into next year. Why 6 man rotation? Why start Pelfrey? He only auditions for free agency. The Twins must have assessed by now whether the would like to resign him. How much time will they give Escobar at SS? Is it a given the Florimon should be the starter? Hicks not recalled. I don't think it decreases the likelihood that he will start in the majors next year. Time off from a challenging year may help. More arms in the pen. They might look to shutting down Burton. They need him to be better next year. They unnecessarily extended him last spring. He was under control for this year before the extension. Is he still worth 3.25 and 3.6 team option for 2014-2015?
  6. jorgenswest
    My interest in the bench is platooning. The most likely place to find a platoon piece is on a corner. The typical platoon player will have a good bat on his platoon half and limited ability to defend anywhere up the middle. A 3 man bench requires all three players to be solid up the middle. Those guys usually aren't very good hitters. A 5 man bench allows the possibility to platoon at two of the corners. Is there a way to reconfigure the current pitching staff use in an 11 man staff? Can this idea make it possible? I think some team will figure Out howto teturn to an 11 man staff. There are players out there that could have a Bill Robinson type career if the someone can figure out how to roster him.
  7. jorgenswest
    I can't see Lincecum choosing to sign with the Twins. I don't think he will see this as his last contract, so the place he elects to play will be very important for his next contract.
  8. jorgenswest
    Willhammer is correct. The third time through will often come up sometime in the 5th inning. They need to get through that inning for this to work. Too much burden on the bullpen otherwise. It is still a worthy idea. I am not as certain on the 11 pitches. That would assume there is a big drop off on pitch 76 and pitch 76 was the same as pitch 100.
  9. jorgenswest
    A second thought about roster composition. A return to an 11 man pitching staff would enable the bench flexibility to platoon. Is there a way to do this with a 7 man bullpen and retain the effectiveness of the relievers?
  10. jorgenswest
    [TABLE=width: 500] [/TD][TD]PA K/BB OPS 1st 1260 2.32 .790 2nd 1191 1.65 .806 3rd 858 1.28 .850 4th 45 1.25 1.139 [/TABLE] The table above shows performance by Twins starter the 1st through 4th time through the line up in 2013. At first glance, it appears that the third time through the line up is a significant drop off. However, it is not quite a dramatic as it looks. Those 350-400 fewer plate appearances are mostly missing from the bottom of the opponents batting order. That wouldn't account for the entire difference or the near halving of k/bb ratio. The k/bb ratio takes a big hit just going to PA#2. Relievers rarely go through a line up twice. In their first time through the line up this year Twin relievers have posted a 2.74 k/bb ratio while allowing an OPS of .655 in 1895 plate appearances. It might be worth a shot. While I can't see a team with an ace going this route that doesn't describe the Twins situation.
  11. jorgenswest
    The Twins had the 9th ranked payroll in 2011 while ranking 13th in team revenue.
  12. jorgenswest
    This is the cost of signing decline phase players to multiyear contracts. Willingham gave the Twins a very good first year and very poor second year. I would have let him go to the Orioles. He will never have trade value. Position players brought back very little in return this summer. They won't get anything for a guy that can't play a position. There are always bats like Mark Reynolds that can be acquired for nothing. Ryan Doumit might not give them anything for the two year contract he signed last summer. He is one of few players with significant playing time and a negative WAR on fangraphs. That WAR does not even include the cost of his league bottom pitch framing deficit. The two year Correia contract gets all of the criticism, but the Doumit contract over the same two years has returned much less to the team.
  13. jorgenswest
    Data in a small sample size should not be used in support of performance improvement. None of the three players has near enough data to use SLG, OBP, SLG reliably. Batting average would take nearly two seasons of data before stabilizing. Parmelee and Escobar may have enough plate appearances to onsider their strike out and walk rates. They have surpassed the major league threshold but the higher variability if the minors may push it higher. Parmelee 32k, 22bb, 198 pa Escobar 37k, 17bb, 188 pa
  14. jorgenswest
    Would it be wise to sign a fly ball pitcher like Hughes and put some duo of Willingham/ Doumit/ Arcia/ Parmelee on the corners? I wonder if defense would be a factor in a pitcher's decision? Maybe only money matters. I also wonder if some pitchers might think twice if Mauer isn't going to be the main catcher next year and Doumit looks to get more playing time at catcher.
  15. jorgenswest
    Doesn't this assume that they would be replacing a replacement level player? I don't think Nathan adds 2 wins to the late inning reliever group. It was a clear savings in money. Cuddyer adds that over Willingham, but was that a reasonable projection? The exchange of the two players did save a little in salary, but their performance over two years has been a wash. They could have kept Liriano by not trading and making a qualifying offer. He would have accepted. Would anyone have thought that was reasonable? They did trade wins in 2013 by trading Span. Good pitching prospects have a significant cost. 2-3 wins taken from the 2013 record seems a worthwhile risk. I don't see it as a salary dump.
  16. jorgenswest
    The median team 3B wOBA is .305. Plouffe sits at .313 with below average fielding. He is young enough to become more consistent. He is old enough and experienced enough that we might be seeing close to his best. I would give him until June 15 next year.
  17. jorgenswest
    If the contract doesn't take the player to age 32 it is OK. International players are usually younger but in short supply. I would advocate that they go with younger players which would result in a lower budget. I don't care about the budget. I care that they build a team that grows together. I also don't live in the area and hence don't contribute to the budget in the form of season tickets. The voice of the season ticket holders should carry all of the weight.
  18. jorgenswest
    I think developing and investing playing into younger players will lead the Twins back into contention. I think they were wise not to sign a decline phase infielder or play Carroll and instead invested time into Dozier, Florimon and Plouffe. I think we would know more about Parmelee, Colabello and Herrmann had they not extended Doumit. It takes at least 1000 plate appearances to get a read on a hitter. They could have been closer. Younger players happen to be cheaper. Their growth adds to the base of a long term solution. Their certain struggle prevents a short term fix. I think the Twins need to work towards a long term solution. They are too far away in the short term. Many disagree.
  19. jorgenswest
    The Twins have four years in Target Field. Entering 2010 and 2011 they had reason to believe that they had a team that could put up 90 wins. In 2010 and 2011 they had the 13th and 9th ranked payrolls. They signed Mauer to one of the baseball's largest contracts and Morneau had a big contract. The next time they have a realistic shot at 90 wins, I think they will do the same. They will take the payroll above the median in baseball.
  20. jorgenswest
    I see a future of the Twins signing key players when the base of young players is established.
  21. jorgenswest
    I think tough love is a behavior management technique. Was that what Dozier needed? Was it his attitude or behavior that was keeping him from being successful at the plate? Is it Hicks' attitude? I don't think so. It really comes down to whether he has done the work to make changes to his swing. Assessing whether he has made the necessary adjustments to approach or technique should be the determine factor. They are individual cases. I don't think attitude is part of the mix.
  22. jorgenswest
    The numbers don't mean anything. Watching Hicks play is everything. If there has been a true adjustment in approach and technique, it can be seen by the coaching staff. They can assess if it worthwhile giving Hicks some more playing time at the major league level. The same should be said about every other player mentioned above. Their call up or addition to the 40 man must be supported by a skilled coaching staff watching them play. It can't be supported by numbers.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think it is a mistake to write off a player prior to 1000 plate appearances with good OBPs in the minors. His projections entering this season on fangraphs for OBP were 308, 322, 322, 330 and 343. These projections look beyond a limited number of major league at bats to project. The median team OBP from the centerfield position is .322 this year.
  24. jorgenswest
    His OBP was so far under .300 that after today you can say he has a career OBP over .300. Presley is still far short of 1000 plate appearances. No one knows what steps he will take with consistent playing time. It isn't unreasonable that he could be a solid fielding CF with an OBP well above .300.
  25. jorgenswest
    It takes a long sample to really determine if a young player is terrible. They may need to be judged by their growth as they get past 1000 plate appearances. They probably need consistent starts as they struggle. I am much more interested in the Twins investing in these struggles rather than extending or signing decline phase players. I had a different viewpoint when the Twins were winning and signed Thome. I would rather lose a few more games investing playing time into younger players. It is easier for me to take this side. I am not a season ticket holder. I don't have any skin in the game.
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