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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    If the performance had been from Gibson, would you be so quick to dismiss it?
  2. jorgenswest
    I didn't expect this start today. I guess we were lucky.
  3. jorgenswest
    The opportunity for a bargain contract probably ended when the Twins didn't listen to his agent requests for an extension in July. Keeping him probably means showing interest by making a qualifying offer. Meanwhile I am glad they didn't trade him. The entertainment he has provided this weekend will likely surpass anything the marginal prospect they may have acquired the deadline. His trade value has to be up. Would he still go unclaimed?
  4. jorgenswest
    The 10-5 is a good point.
  5. jorgenswest
    The market next winter will be hard to project. Teams will have an influx of TV money. I think some guys will be signed to some bad contracts that handicap teams in 2015-2017. The Twins can't afford that handicap. The best case is to find a guy who had somewhat of a down season. Overpay him on a one year contract instead of a multiyear. The player might want the one year deal in order to get get back on track and seek a bigger multiyear after next year. Trade him at the deadline. If he doesn't pitch well, it is just a one year contract.
  6. jorgenswest
    Is it reasonable to assume that the power Morneau has shown recently is real? Probably. No one sustains the rate he has hit at the trade deadline but he probably has 20 home run power. At midseason, he had 3 home runs and a 3% HR/FB rate. That wasnt sustainable either. It was easy to predict he would he double digit home runs in the second half. I think it is possible to project 2 WAR next year. At 33, I would want him on a one year contract. He isn't worth a qualifying offer, but I think it is a better option that 3 years at 7-8 million. I would do the qualifying offer. Every team is going to have an influx of TV money for next season. The Twins have to prepare themselves for the changing market. The cost of 1 WAR in free agency will go up. Could it go as high as 7 million? That level and 2 WAR will be the break even point for Morneau at a qualifying offer. In next year's dollars, Morneau might project to be worth 10-12 million. I think that is close enough to make a qualifying offer. I don't think it is the certainty he will take it. If he does, the one year risk is a small.
  7. jorgenswest
    I looked at the previous three years. 2010 and 2012 better in the road. 2011 and 2013 better at home. Since Target Field opened his OPS is .793. His Target Field OPS is .804. Numbers stabilize when the sample is large enough.
  8. jorgenswest
    OPS stabilizes at 500 plate appearances for individuals. That sample can't be accomplished in a single season comparing splits. When Samples Become Reliable | FanGraphs Baseball
  9. jorgenswest
    It probably is simply random variation that happens with smaller samples.
  10. jorgenswest
    It is a good sign that strike out rate has not gone up. Ten weeks in AAA next year is not going to hurt his development. If he can maintain his strikeout and walk rates in AAA, call him up around June 15. If not, give him the time to adjust at AAA.
  11. jorgenswest
    It takes a sample of around 500 plate appearances for OPS to become reliable for use in assessing a player. It is dependent on so many other factors. Strike out rate, on the other hand, stabilizes at 150 plate appearances. Sano has 172 plate appearances in AA. His strike out rate has remained at the same level as he has moved up to AA. That is a good sign that we should care about.
  12. jorgenswest
    There is no way to know if he is ready in the spring. He will not see near enough season ready quality major league pitching in the spring. Spring stats and even September call up stats have absolutely no value for projecting or assessing readiness. You reward your season ticket holders by developing Sano into a very good player over several seasons. As for AA, his strikeout rate has not gone up and has stayed around the 25% level as he has moved up the ladder. That is encouraging. Let's see that trend continue for 10 weeks in AAA next year.
  13. jorgenswest
    I think the Yankees made a move like that with Betances last year. They may have had to put him on the major league roster first.
  14. jorgenswest
    I hope he is OK also and has a quick return. Concussions are serious business. It is a credit to Ryan's character that he is willing to go out there for the team. I am glad baseball is starting to take these injuries seriously.
  15. jorgenswest
    Nothing will be learned in a September call up. It isn't enough time. The only purposes served would be my selfish interest in seeing him play and the managements interest in selling tickets. A better use of September is the International League playoffs that begin September 4 and continue for up to two weeks. Let him get that experience. Perhaps moving he and Rosario soon to help Rochester get to the playoffs. Give him 10 more weeks in AAA next year and allow him to dominate that level. If that happens, call him up June 15 and allow him to work through his struggles at the major league level with the knowledge that he has dominated the levels below. This is not about service time or super 2. I think this plan decreases the chance that he will need to move back and forth between the majors and the minors.
  16. jorgenswest
    So I guess we are arguing that when the Twins get to KC's position in three years, this is the kind of move they should consider. By that time, some of the key prospects will be 22-25 and hopefully have a few seasons under their belts as Gordon, Hosmer, Moustakis and Perez do. Let's look for that trade in 2016. Meanwhile, what do the Twins do with Correia? Stay with him or try to go with a young guy that may struggle more but be part of the future solution?
  17. jorgenswest
    I will concede. The point about performance in spite of a heavy workload can't be overlooked. It takes a deep staff and good management of the pen. Can we expect this be a top bullpen next year? I am not as certain looking at some of the numbers. As long as Ryan can continue to identify inexpensive free agent pieces and Gardy continues to utilize those pieces, I guess I should have more confidence in continued success.
  18. jorgenswest
    At midseason when he had 3 home runs his hr/fb rate was at a very low 3%. That wasn't sustainable. It had to go up. It was written that he would have double digit home runs in the second half without the need to make changes to approach. It was unfortunate for the Twins and Morneau that he had the bad luck of the 3%, but his power production in the second half is closer to his true ability.
  19. jorgenswest
    Twins relievers are the strength of the team. Here is how they compare to other teams. The data is from fangraphs. WAR 1st 5.4 xFIP 15th 3.76 K/9 20th 7.89 BB/9 4th 2.81 The top rank in WAR is more reflective of opportunity than top of the league skill. If you pitch a lot more innings, you have more opportunity to add to the WAR. Their ranks in the categories suggests the Twins have a good bullpen, but probably not among the top 10 in baseball.
  20. jorgenswest
    I would love to see Sano play with the Twins. That is my selfish interest. Ticket sales would increase. The management's selfish interest. The same statements can be made about next April. The reality is that he still has room to grow in AA this year. He will benefit from starting at AAA next year. Let him develop. Allow him the chance to dominate AAA next year for at least 10 weeks. If he dominates, we see him June 15. If not, the Twins need to be patient.
  21. jorgenswest
    A link to an assessment of the trade from long time Royal fan and baseball analyst Rany Jazayerli. Assessing the Myers-Shields trade from the Royals' side. It ain't pretty. - Grantland
  22. jorgenswest
    The Royals traded 7 years of Myers for 2 years of Shields. The argument about the timing is reasonable. Three key offensive players (Hosmer, Moustakis, Perez) won't be entering their prime seasons until 2016. Shields is Royal property through 2014. The argument that the value of two years of a very good starting pitcher is worth a top batting prospect is also reasonable. Did the Royals time it right or should they have had more patience? Minimally, they need to make the playoffs before Shields leaves.
  23. jorgenswest
    It appears the majority of those on this board approve of the Twins apparent disregard for this data. I am on the other side of the debate than the Twins, but not sure if there is anything else to say. I think they are one of only a few teams that would play Ryan Doumit at catcher. There is volumes to read and replies in a forum setting really can't change or inform anyone's thoughts. I hope the Twins are on the winning side of this debate. I fear that they are not and some organizations are laughing at their roster decisions related to catcher.
  24. jorgenswest
    The first measures that become reliable in small samples are strike out rates and base on ball rates (as well as flyball groundball data) While the samples in the article are too small to justify a conclusion of improvement, I think there has also been an significant improvement in the walk and strike out rates.
  25. jorgenswest
    An article about pitch framing that include quotes from several teams. Studying the art of pitch framing by catchers such as Francisco Cervelli, Chris Stewart, Jose Molina, and others - Grantland Those teams may be on the wrong side of the debate, but they certainly are on the opposite side of the debate than the Twins. By signing and extending Doumit, the Twins have shown that they are ignorant or discount its impact on runs scored. I hope it is the latter. I think they are the wrong side of the argument, but doing the research and taking a side is better than being ignorant. They can't be in a wait and see position. You don't sign Doumit for three years if you think it is possible this skill has significant impact on runs.
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