jorgenswest

The Reds weren't willing to part with a top prospect last year for Span. They didn't have to give up a good prospect for Broxton. It is very hard to get teams to part with good prospects.

Worth a shot. I'd rather invest innings in Swarzak than Correia or Pelfrey. Though he hasn't had great success, he wouldn't be the first pitcher to turn it around. I think it took Viola and Radke 50 starts.

This has gone off topic. My fault. Someone should probably start or find a 40 man thread.

If they can find a Correia type any winter, why not pick up a prospect and give the starts to Albers, Worley or Hendriks. Maybe one of those guys turns it around given the opportunity. How much will it cost in wins this year? 2?

Last off topic on protecting low A. I think Everth Cabrera is a recent example. Santana pitched in Midwest league. On topic... I hope they move Pelfrey and Correia somehow and give opportunity to guys that will be around in 2015. At least one guy on your list will have a significant career. I hope it is with the Twins.

Polanco? Kepler? September call ups for Rosario or Sano? We disagree on Hendriks. I think he will have a longer career in the majors than Darnell or Albers. He is younger and has accomplished more over his minor league career. I wouldn't trade him for either Albers or Darnell. I would protect Albers if he is eligible.

I think there will be some very difficult 40 man decisions next winter. There are several guys they need to add who will still be in the minors next year. I don't think they want to add a guy only to have to take him off before the rule 5 draft.

I saw his line, but how did he look? How was his velocity on the fastball? His velocity this year was a drop from 2010-2011 where it sat 90-92 as opposed to 88-90. It would be a good sign if his velocity is returning to the level previous to the 2012 arm trouble.

I don't think there is any reason to look for a replacement going into next year. If he doesn't work out as a starter, Rosario will be ready to take his shot. The Twins have bigger problems to solve.

They need to give the shots to anyone who might be part of the team next year. There is no way they will pick up Blackburn's option. I don't see any reason why they should allow him to audition for other teams. They really need to have Worley in the rotation next year. I hope he can can finish well and carry some confidence into next year. I hope the same for Hendriks. I hope that Trevor May gets a chance to debut in September. It can be a relief role. He is already on the 40 so they won't need to juggle. Hernandez future role is probably in the pen. He should get that opportunity in September. Duensing will be 31 and arbitration eligible. He may be a nontendered if the Twins think Hernandez can take his role. I think Albers and Darnell will be rule 5 eligible if they are not on the 40. If not, I wouldn't add either to the 40 to get a September look. The Twins will have enough juggling to protect guys from the rule 5 draft next winter.

The Twins need to evaluate Fien without the data. They need to assess based on watching him pitch. Either something has changed since he was in Rochester last summer or his numbers are an illusion of small sample in lower leverage situations. Any data for a reliever is very unreliable for projection of future performance due to sample size. In Fien's case, his numbers in the minors were poor due to high home run rates. That isn't surprising given his very low ground ball rate. He also has a low BABIP of .220 this year. Is that sustainable? Given his age and longer track record including the minors, I hope the Twins would listen to any offers of a moderate prospect. They don't need to mo

More reason not to extend him. I think I would keep him the rest of this year and make a qualifying offer if he surpasses 2 WAR for the year. Of course, any one would trade him for a good prospect. The original premise was no easy decision for Ryan. Extend at 2/20 Dump for marginal prospects Do nothing now keeping open the option of making a qualifying offer. I have seen responses on all sides. Not an easy decision that is guaranteed to draw criticism.

Does that mean you would trade Morneau and take the best offer?

His line in one game is also no more meaningful than the win. The eyes on how he pitched has value. I guess we can infer that his stuff is OK but not location.

The Yankees have shown they value framing pitches more than any other organization. They have shown it with all of their catching decisions since Girardi took over. Jose Molina credits Girardi and the Yankees for helping him refine this skill. Unless they have decided that they have been wrong about the importance of managing the strike zone, they are not going to seek Doumit in a trade. They can improve their offense in other spots and without impacting their pitching staff. http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/9275754/studying-art-pitch-framing-catchers-such-francisco-cervelli-chris-stewart-jose-molina-others

Back to the topic... I did not see any posts agreeing with Mr. Reusse that the Twins should offer a 2/10 per year contract. There is not reason for Morneau to do a team friendly extension during the season. In his mind, he has to believe the power will come back at some level in the second half. Therefore if he is not worth a 10 million per contract (which pays off at less than 2 WAR year), he is not worth anything more than marginal prospects. We can't fault the Twins for taking that type of deal. It really isn't very different from Liriano last year. No one was advocating for the Twins to offer him a qualifying offer or give him anything but a team friendly extension. If he didn't have that kind of value to the Twins, he didn't to other clubs also. As for Morneau, of the Twins three choices in extend (not team friendly), trade (marginal return) or wait. I would wait until the end of the season. If he shows good power in the second half, I would make that qualifying offer. If not, I would let him go. Of course, if some team offered a solid prospect or Morneau was interested in a team friendly extension, any would take that offer.

I like Doumit as a bench bat/DH. He appears to be a good guy to have in the clubhouse. The money doesn't hurt the Twins at all. I don't think the Twins should ever put him behind the plate. I would rather carry a back up catcher that can defend than a 13th pitcher or 2 utility infielders. How many games have each of the 4 middle infielders play in this year? Did it help the Twins win any of those games?

By not trading him, they gamble (a few marginal prospects) that he will project 2+ WAR next year. Why might that be a reasonable gamble? His fly ball rate is near his career norm. It has dropped from (40.4 to 37.5). The difference is an increase in line drive rate. His IF/FB rate is actually lower than his career norm. His HR/FB rate is just below half his career norm at 6.5. A few weeks ago I wrote that the 3% HR/FB rate he was carrying wasn't sustainable and that he would hit double digit home runs the remainder of the season. Even with the low HR rate, his WAR is 0.9 at midseason. Just adding a few extra home runs will put that over 2 for the season. Why might he reject the offer? Let's suppose he has a second half similar to the first with a few more home runs. His numbers would comp with Cuddyer from 2011 at the same age. It has to be in his mind that it will be his last chance to get a multiyear offer. Would 3/27 or 3/30 be so far out of reach that he wouldn't go for it? What if he doesn't do well in the second half? The Twins don't have to make the offer. The Twins lose the opportunity to acquire guys like Escobar or Hernandez. What if he does well and accepts the offer? It is a one year commitment where the break even point is around 2.5 WAR. They certainly have the payroll space to take a one year risk. I think the worst case for the Twins is to commit 20 million through 2015 by the trade deadline (as Mr. Reusse suggested) and risk greater decline without seeing how he performs the rest of this season. I am certain that I will read later in this thread that the Twins should trade him for a good prospect or sign him to some bargain deal (as many advocated for Baker last year). If that happens, it is easy to be the GM. Take either of those deals. It's GM reality when there is no obvious option. 1) Offer 2/20 extension before trade deadline 2) Trade for marginal prospects 3) Let the season play out (and make a qualifying offer if he achieves 2+ WAR)

You would extend him for 2 at 10 million per?

Extending Morneau might be better than a trade | StarTribune.com Reusse suggests a 2 year contract extension at 10 million per year. I think a better option would be to make a qualifying offer which will be in the 14 million range. I don't think it is wise to commit multiple years to him. However if he thinks he can get 20 million over 2 years or even a Cuddyer type offer, he may reject the offer and the Twins would get a pick that is probably a little more valuable than a marginal prospect. The best option is to trade him for a good prospect, but that offer may not come. So the real trade option might be trade him and acquire two marginal prospects. Assuming there are no obviously worthwhile trade offers, what would you do? 1) extend Morneau at 2/10 committing 20 million. 2) plan to make a qualifying offer of 1 and around 14 million 3) trade him this month for marginal prospects

I don't think they will let go of either. I think they will continue to put Doumit behind the plate and not develop Pinto or Herrmann. I think they will pencil Burton in the pen next year instead of developing a longer term solution. Why extend either player for multiple years given their age and injury history? Why not bank the bargain they were in 2012 and look for the next guy on a one year deal. They could have had Burton on a one year deal this year. Free agents like Sanchez are young enough to make sure the Twins get a good portion of their peak. Signing guys past 30 almost guarantees that the Twins pay for the decline. Until the Twins establish a foundation of you get players that play winning baseball, I would not commit to any old guy beyond a year. The Twins spent the mid 90s signing decline phase players and continuing the mediocrity. They finally went young in 1999 and had a foundation in 2001. For the Twins trying to develop and compete did not work. You can also look to the very young teams in the early 80s that were a foundation of the 1987-1992 run. Who is available next year? I don't know. Matt Garza is in his 29 year old season this year. It isn't likely these elite would be interested in signing with the Twins until they have a foundation. I wouldn't sign old guys to multiyear contracts in response to not getting the more valuable players in the market. I would rather lose a few more games with players who will get better as they gain experience.

Given the size of sample in any single month isn't change in data likely due to random variation rather than a trend up or down? It is true that younger players will improve and trend up. We can hope that Dozier is that case. I don't think it will be seen by comparing monthly data. The first data that might become reliable is strikeout and walk rates. If his walk rate shown in June continues through July, that would be encouraging.

The Twins can use the rest of the season to invest at bats and innings into some pieces that could help in the future. They need a back up catcher that can defend. Do they need to sign someone in the offseason. Can Chris Herrman or Josmil Pinto defend well enough to fill that role? Why not find out? Chris Collabello is putting up great numbers in the minors. Will his skills transfer to the big league? Probably not. Why not find out? Is Andrew Albers for real? Probably not. Why not give him 10 starts? How about Michael Tonkin? Could Hernandez be a LOOGY? Why didn't Slama get a longer look earlier in his career? Hendriks and Worley are both young? Is there space for them in September? Speaking of September how about Sano and Rosario? One of the reasons this can't happen is because the Twins go bargain hunting in the winter. They signed Willingham, Carroll and Correia to multiple years. They get great one year deals with Burton and Doumit and instead of looking for the next bargain they extend them two years. They are funding their decline which only continues the cycle of mediocrity. Meanwhile, they don't get to invest playing time into guys that could actually be part of the solution. Parmelee should have played more last year. Maybe the playing time investment in Plouffe is paying off. I was very concerned they would sign a Hannahan and stall his development opportunity as they did Parmelee. It is time to stop shopping in the bargain bin and buying the fruit that is good for a short time but begins to rot. Instead play the guys not yet ripe and see if they develop. Next year use free agency in two ways. Only sign old guys that will take a one year deal. Overpay an elite younger player to a long contract. If these guys won't come to the Twins yet, don't add to the mediocrity by committing multiple years to guys in the bargain bin. It is better to suffer with guys who will improve. As for this year, move the old guys off the shelf and get whatever they can get. The Twins need the shelf space for new product. What is the worst thing that can happen? Would they lose 95 games this year instead of 90? I would rather lose more games using players who have a chance to get better.

They should leave the 40 spot open. It will get filled when they trade a veteran in July or August for multiple players or it will get filled in September by a guy like Sano. They can also leave it open and claim a future DFA. There will be more as teams shuffle rosters at the trade deadline and players begin to come off the 60 day DL. In fact, Mastroianni will need a spot when he is ready. It would be unwise to fill it with Albers temporarily and then later have to expose him or another player when they need that spot.

Half season numbers like ERA from relievers tell very little about how well they will pitch in the future. They never have enough innings to be significant. The Twins absolutely should trade Fien or Thielbar for a guy they can project to be a starting position player or pitcher.