Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Old-Timey Member
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,284

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    9

 Content Type 

Profiles

Minnesota Twins News, Rumors & Analysis

Minnesota Twins Videos

2026 Minnesota Twins Top Prospect Rankings

2022 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Minnesota Twins Trade & Free Agent Rumors

Minnesota Twins Fan Guides & Resources

2023 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

The Minnesota Twins Players Project

2024 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2025 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

2026 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks & Signing Bonuses

Forums

Blogs

Events

Store

Downloads

Gallery

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    We essentially swapped Joe Benson for 8 starts from Walters. Walters was 2-5 and the team 3-5. Seems like a wash. Benson played 9 games before his most recent injury.
  2. jorgenswest
    I think the study needs to look at every effective 30 year old closer with similar usage pattern. The role of one inning closer probably became prevalent throughout baseball around the time of Eckersley. There should be a big enough pool in that span. Take that group and see what rate remain effective at 31, 32 and 33. I did a similar group study before the Twins decided to extend Burton into next year. They didn't need to extend him as he was under team control for this year. Given the rate of decline of similar pitchers in his role, I suggested it would be unwise to extend Burton. Burton: What's is the Future for a 31 Year Old Set Up Man? - Blogs - Minnesota Twins News & Rumors Forum Set up men are a much more volatile lot. Perkins is a year younger. It would require a different study.
  3. jorgenswest
    How well do effective 30 year old closers age as they work there way towards 33? What is the rate of decay? The Twins need to do this study to project his value in comparison to any offers.
  4. jorgenswest
    Encouraging... Plouffe Mauer Perkins Arcia Signs of hope... Deduno Gibson Fien Thielbar Need to step it up... Dozier Parmelee Florimon Diamond Worley Signs of decline... Willingham Burton Morneau Doumit Pelfrey Just holding a spot... Duensing Carroll Walters Roenicke Bad but young enough to improve... Hicks Escobar Hendriks Hernandez Better than expected... Correia Thomas Swarzak Pressly
  5. jorgenswest
    Just to clarify... The one closer I was referring to is Mariano with 141 innings in the post season. He is the only reliever with a significant sample. Papelbon has been in a lot of playoff series but only has 27 innings. Mariano is elite. No one else can compete.
  6. jorgenswest
    If you are suggesting that GMs would prefer Rodriguez, Rodney, Street, Crain, Bettancourt or Putz because of their playoff experience, I simply disagree. Some of them have a poor track record in the playoffs, but it is meaningless due to sample size anyway. Papelbon is the better reliever based on the breadth of his regular season performance and he is paid accordingly. If money is not an issue, a team should go get him. Bottom line, the combination of Perkins performance and contract make him a very valuable asset. No GM is going to look elsewhere because some inferior reliever has pitched 10-30 innings in the playoffs.
  7. jorgenswest
    There is probably only one closer with enough sample size to be reliably evaluated on post season performance. Any other credentials would be a myth and meaningless for any projection on future performance in the playoffs. The best predictor of playoff performance has to be the large sample of performance in the regular season. I am certain every organization understands sample size, otherwise they would be going after Phil Coke based on his 2012 post season credentials as a closer over Perkins.
  8. jorgenswest
    Somehow the Twins need to move Doumit or Willingham before next year. They both are liabilities in the field becoming greater liabilities. They both will still have offensive value. Either can be valuable in a Jim Thome type role. The Twins talk about how they value defense as the Twins way. Their decisions the last two years show otherwise. They may value avoiding errors, but they certainly don't value as highly players who can take away a base hit with their ability. The Twin pitchers have seen enough weak hits fall in front of their corner outfielders. They have seen enough pitches in the bottom quarter of the strike zone called a ball. Trade one. Retain the other as DH. Don't give them both to Gardy next year.
  9. jorgenswest
    Hicks will be a defensive upgrade in CF over Thomas. Thomas will be an upgrade at either corner. On days they both play, the Twins may approach a league average defensive OF for the first time in 2013. Unfortunately, their offense won't be close to league average. This is an opportunity for Plouffe to earn a spot in the heart if the 2014 batting order. They will need his right handed bat to be a force.
  10. jorgenswest
    Big start and he has Doumit behind the plate. His k/bb ratio with Doumit is 20-13 in 9 starts this year. With Mauer it is 16-3 in 5 starts. Graphic of his last game with Doumit at catcher. Notice all of the green squares denoting balls at the bottom of the strike zone. http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/cache/location.php-pitchSel=539438&game=gid_2013_06_20_chamlb_minmlb_1&batterX=0&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=3.gif I am guessing Gardy commented after the game that Diamond needs to keep the ball down. It would be nice if he would get strikes on those pitches. Did you know that as a team pitcher k/bb ratio with Mauer is 2.63 and with Doumit is 1.62? It is probably just the umpire.
  11. jorgenswest
    Possibly fair? If you go by the count at the HOF site. Hall of Famers | Baseball Hall of Fame Of course, their list is different than the count on their front page. If you look at list it seems to support Brock's point. We could spend a few comments arguing positions and Ripken, Molitor etc... that would only distract from the point.
  12. jorgenswest
    Not sure I remembered the year correctly from the show. I do recommend listening.
  13. jorgenswest
    The most recent Effectively Wild podcast had a lot of Twins talk. Would you trade Buxton for all the heralded Royals 2010 prospect group? Is Joe Mauer's contract worth it? How does Caleb Thielbar stand out this year? Give it a listen if you haven't already... Baseball Prospectus | BP Daily Podcast: Effectively Wild Episode 234: Byron Buxton, Joe Mauer, and the Twins/Dylan Bundy, Tommy John Surgery, and PRP
  14. jorgenswest
    Did anyone mention releasing Carroll? As for Thomas, he appears to be a better 4th OF option than Ramirez and Mastroianni. It would be nice to have him on a corner with Hicks in CF. That might bring the OF defense for that game close to average.
  15. jorgenswest
    Lots of risk in baseball. Sign guys over 30 and watch them decline. Give any pitcher a long term deal and see them lose a season to injury. Developing talent and retaining control of those players through arbitration is essential to sustained success. The a twins have both depth and top end talent. It is an encouraging position. That doesn't mean that those players won't struggle together before putting it together. The 1986 Twins took a step back before a pretty good 5 year run when the key players entered their primes. Hrbek and Gaetti were 27 and 28 at the beginning of that 5 year run. Hosmer and Moustakas are 23 and 24. Will the a Royals have enough patience?
  16. jorgenswest
    He was close. According to baseball cube, he was#58 entering season he was traded and #71 the year before that. He was the Twins 2nd or 3rd prospect those years. An awful trade acknowledged by everyone at the time. You don't trade top prospects for closers. note: I should add that his OBP was .280 with an OPS of .625 in Rochester at the time of the trade. His prospect status had certainly dropped off the preseason ranking.
  17. jorgenswest
    Much of Willingham's perceived value comes from OBP and walks. Evidence that not all walks are the same. Slow guys with a lot of walks are not nearly as valuable as average runners with walks. The OPS calculates the same either way. There is no reason to give Willingham anything to hit with two outs. The only way he is going to score is with a Morneau home run. How often does that happen?
  18. jorgenswest
    Jeremy or Seth would be the expert. I can point you to Jeremy's work. http://twinsdaily.com/1272-minnesota-twins-roster-payroll-2013.html I think if you look at the rule 5 column you will see some players with the 2013 designation. If I understand Jeremy's work correctly, the players with the 2013 need to be added this winter or be eligible for the rule 5. That would include guys like Angel Morales and Logan Darnell. There are also some purple 40 man add highlights on guys like Alex Wimmers, Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. I thought Polanco and Sano were the same international year but they have different rule 5 designations. Jeremy jump in and correct me.
  19. jorgenswest
    Obviously much better prospects than Betances. Jose Molina references the Yankees and Giradi when asked about pitch framing. They have always employed catchers who do well both with the Yankees and when they leave. It is hard to imagine that Girardi would allow Doumit behind the plate.
  20. jorgenswest
    Morneau fits New York with his position and expiring contract. They want to stay under luxury tax. They may believe their park will help revive his power stroke. Would they offer failed prospect Dellin Betances? He is 25. Struggled with injuries and command. I would guess he is running out of options. In this instance, it would be two trade low candidates with both teams gambling they can resurrect talent not seen in two years.
  21. jorgenswest
    By the time Buehrle was Albers current age, he had reached 100 wins, played on 3 all star teams and was a starter on a World Series champ. The Twins haven't had that skill set in a while. I really think they are different style pitchers. Buerhle is about location - fastball and change up. Albers utilizes his slow curve.
  22. jorgenswest
    They are different types of pitchers. Anderson is 2 or 3 years younger and a ground ball pitcher. Best scenario would be to demonstrate success over the course of the year and earn a September call up. The hope might be a Bruce Chen. Both have shown reverse platoon splits. Neither is a groundball pitcher (Chen appears more extreme but hard to compare his rates vs. major league hitters). Neither throw hard. Both are left handed.
  23. jorgenswest
    It is all about Hicks. He is an asset they need in 2014. When Thomas regresses, they can throw Richardson out there and eventually Mastroianni. Those three journeymen can hold the place until Hicks shows some domination in AAA.
  24. jorgenswest
    His line drive rate is 19% but probably not enough plate appearance to be stable. It is certain to escalate against major league hitters. If you don't get ground balls and your strike rate is below average, you are going to give up a lot of home runs. It is hard to be successful over the long run. Lefties Barry Zito and Bruce Chen have been around a long time with that mix. They both rely on a heavy mix of sliders and curve balls. Is Albers a compto either? Diamond is a ground ball pitcher and probably not a comp.
  25. jorgenswest
    Obviously there isn't much to learn from numbers at this number of plate appearances. Seeing him pitch would have much more value. His k-rate and walk rate are ok. His groundball rate is around 42% which is not very encouraging. With that groundball rate, he will need to maintain the strike out rate into the majors. That isn't likely.
×
×
  • Create New...