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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Earlier in the year, the Rangers DFA'd CF Julio Borbon. Now they have space for CF Benson. It is a little different because Borbon was out of options, but I would think that Borbon would be a good fit on the current Twin roster. Too bad the Twins didn't have the foresight to work a Borbon/Benson trade.
  2. jorgenswest
    Is the Twins, the media or the fan that like to pull the attitude card when a guy leaves the organization? As a baseball player, his struggles began before the injury and have persisted. I can't think of a comp where someone has struggled similarly in AA/AAA at 24/25 and then became successful at 26. He is out of options next year and will need to be in the majors or exposed again. However, this is not the decision I would have made. I would have brought up Gibson and there would be no 40 decisions to make. Given the decisions about Walters, they have some older guys on the 40 that are unlikely to be useful major leaguers long term. Collabello, Ramirez, Butera, Fien, Roenicke and now Walters come to mind. Doesn't sound like building for the future to me.
  3. jorgenswest
    I know that young guys can need discipline. I don't think it helps when the details become public. I trust Mientkiewicz to discipline the players when needed (even top prospects). A guy is benched for a few days. It's not going to slow his development. Lack of discipline will hinder development.
  4. jorgenswest
    I don't need more details. It is better for Rosario for the Twins to keep the discipline in house. He's a young guy and messed up somehow. He is benched for a few games. It happens.
  5. jorgenswest
    Grantland had an interview with Russell Martin and the skill of framing pitches this week. The plot of called strikes comparing 2008-2012 and 2013. Q&A: Russell Martin on the Art of Pitch Framing - The Triangle Blog - Grantland This may be of more interest considering that the Twins have the guy that caught many games for the Pirates from 2008-2011. You can also find interviews at Baseball Prospectus (not behind the pay wall) with the perspective from a pitcher (McCarthy), catcher (Miguel Montero/Chris Stewart), GM (Towers), scout and former umpire (McKeon). This link will take you to the BP Unfiltered blog and you will find the interviews within Baseball Prospectus I hope the Twins are paying attention. If you don't have pitchers that can get swings and misses, you need every called strike you can get.
  6. jorgenswest
    I will share the disappointment. I do understand that we traded for a guy whose ceiling is top of the rotation starter and floor is late inning reliever. You can't get a guaranteed top of the rotation starter for a good center fielder. They needed to take the risk in order to get the upside. No matter how it turns out, it was worth the risk. I would prefer they take the risk rather than get a young pitcher with a possible ceiling of mid rotation starter that is ready for the majors. That guy is Vance Worley. With May a good return for Revere, but neither has the upside of Meyer.
  7. jorgenswest
    There is a 60 day option for the minors also. If Butera were placed on the 60 day from the minors does he count on the 40 man major league roster. If not, what's the point of the 60 day minor league disabled list?
  8. jorgenswest
    If Benson doesn't have the character to handle the struggle in his call up, he would never have made it in the majors anyway. Every player struggles. They need the strength to deal with it and find a way to get better. The call up did not change his character. I really don't think it is his ability to handle the struggle. I think he ran into better pitching. Lots of guys top out at AA.
  9. jorgenswest
    Arcia moved up at that time last year.
  10. jorgenswest
    You need metrics to prove that the defense in LF, RF and 3B as well as Doumit's defense at catcher is at the bottom? I think there are teams that understand the impact of a defense on runs scored. The Twins, based on the decisions they have made since Ryan had returned, don't see it the same way. It is easier to blame the pitcher as solely responsible for giving up runs. The Twins give them a few handicaps. Some throw to a catcher consistently inept at getting strikes called when pitchers throw in the bottom of the zone. I find it ironic that Gardy has followed a few of those outings with "___________ needs to get the ball down" on his radio show. I wrote about Hendriks starts and how he wasn't getting any strike calls on balls low in the zone only to have Gardy report that he needs to keep the ball down. I think you can listen to last Sunday's show and here something similar for another pitcher. All pitchers have the handicap of Twins corner outfielders positioned deep in the outfield. How many singles have fallen in front of Willingham or Parmelee? Metrics tell us that the Twins get to fewer balls hit to the outfield than any other team. We don't need metrics though. We can see how deep they need to position themselves to compensate for their lack of range. We can see their lack of range. Instead it is every starting pitcher. If only they could keep the ball down in the zone...
  11. jorgenswest
    While they were winning, wasn't defense part of the Twins way? It seems like all they care about is avoiding errors and limiting fundamental mistakes. Make a fundamental mistake and we are sure to hear about it. However, repeatedly show inept defensive skill and play every day. It all starts last tear with the decision to commit three years to two guys that should not bring a glove to the field. It continued a year later by trading their players the best defensive skill. The outfield range has been so inept this year, but somehow the Twins have found a way to play guys with even poorer range the last two games. You might argue that the Twins collection of ball in play pitchers, they should seek players for their defensive skill. Not the Twins. With every roster decision the defense gets weaker. Defensive metrics would support how awful the defense has been in the OF. Beyond the OF, Plouffe and Doumit can join them at the bottom of the league in their defensive skill. Metrics would only distract from the conversation. We don't need their poor metric numbers to know that the Twins have some of the worst defensive players in the game. As the Twins are rebuilt and remodeled, I hope that defensive skill and range become a priority. Let's give our young pitchers the best possible chance to be successful. Let's move our defensive liabilities to anyone who will take them.
  12. jorgenswest
    The a Twins should not worry about the super 2. It only is money with an extra year of arbitration. They should be concerned about a 21-23 year old and a year of control. It is more than simply money. It makes the player more valuable all around. He is a more valuable trade commodity. The Twins have more leverage in offering a long term contract. I would send a Hicks down and have him put up a good month in AAA before returning as soon as Thomas is healthy or they can even give Richardson time. He is not a prospect but he probably is close enough to a Mastroianni. They have should no concern about any 25 year old and beginning service time. They will have control of that player through their prime.
  13. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins aren't using AAA stat lines to decide who is ready to be called up to the starting rotation. The only measures that might be stable at this point are ground ball rate, fly rate (70 balls in play) and K/PA (70 PA). W/PA may be close to stable (170 PA). Those numbers towards stabilization are at the major league level. My guess is the increased variability in the minors would increase those levels. That doesn't mean the decision on who is most ready to be called up can not be performance based. It should be. It only means that the assessment of those that have seen every game and pitch should carry the weight. There is no way anyone who has not regularly seen these guys pitch can make a reliable assessment based on 2013 numbers.
  14. jorgenswest
    Great report. Great read. Thank you.
  15. jorgenswest
    He gave up a hit in the 8th. Put him on a plane. I am looking forward to his first start as a Twin.
  16. jorgenswest
    Great stuff. I look forward to your reports later this week. You have sold me on Manaea.
  17. jorgenswest
    I tend to agree, though a one year contract is not significant risk. I would contend that anyone who thinks he is worth a reasonably good prospect in trade must also contend he is worth a qualifying offer. It amused me last year that some of the same voices ridiculing the Liriano trade also did not think Liriano was worth a qualifying offer. Clearly, he wasn't worth a qualifying offer and the return for him in trade had corresponding value. Back to Morneau, I do believe the Twins need to imply that they plan to make a qualifying offer (even if untrue). It will make their need to trade him appear less desperate.
  18. jorgenswest
    Is there a third option to give Morneau a one year qualifying offer to be eligible for compensation? If so, they do not need to trade him unless they get an offer more valuable than a pick between rounds 1 and 2.
  19. jorgenswest
    It is possible to get a good prospect in a trade. It will have to be someone young who the Twins scouts can see a better future than generally seen by others. We will have to have confidence in the Twins scouting department to find that player generally seen as a B-/C+ prospect.
  20. jorgenswest
    If so, then he was 28 at the time of the trade. The 2011 season was also one where he had just played in the all star game and carried an OPS far greater than .743. No one would suggest that would be a good comparison to Morneau. All of the data he cited matches 2012.
  21. jorgenswest
    I appreciate comps when discussing trades. It keeps the discussion more realistic. Let's start with Pence. Given his age and control, he is likely more valuable than Morneau and Willingham. They were also fortunate to find a trade partner in the Giants who have a history of overpaying at the deadline. The Giants traded Tommy Joseph, Seth Rosin and Nate Schierholtz (not a prospect). I look to the baseball cube as they keep a history of both team and top 100 prospects lists from baseball america. Entering last season, Joseph was the #2 Giant prospect according to BBA (in previous years 10 and 6 but the Giants had traded away prospects in the Beltran trade). He was not in the top 100 and had never made the list. Sickels has had him as a C+/B- prospect which probably doesn't put him close to the top 100. Seth Rosin (from University of Minnesota) was in high A-Ball pitching in relief and spot starts. He was old for the league and never made any prospect list. His grade from Sickels was a C+ in 2012. Not sure where the two top 50 prospects were in the trade. Victorino netted Ethan Martin. He did not make the Dodgers top 10 entering last season (although he had in 2011). Given that he didn't make his own teams top 10 and there are 30 teams, I would think that would put him a long way from the border of the top 100. His grade from Sickels in 2012 was a C. While they are fair comps (Pence's value given age and control probably better than Morneau), I don't see the top 100 return. It might show that we can an expect a C+/B- prospect at the high end.
  22. jorgenswest
    The way out of the hole is to develop young pitching and improve the defense. They have a lot of work to do in both areas but acquiring Meyer and May are a step in the right direction.
  23. jorgenswest
    John, I would be interested in the correlation using percentages instead of per 9. Did you try a correlation with strike out, walk and hit percentage?
  24. jorgenswest
    I am not sure Willingham ever had great trade value. He is a huge deficit in left field. He is at an age and has a contract where decline in skills both offensive and defensive can be expected. He had 7 years of an OPS+ between 115-129. Last year it spiked at 143. It seems reasonable that he would settle back in his career range this year with the reality that a drop from that range will come sometime in the next few years. While still an offensive plus, he gives back some on defense. No one knows how much. I am guessing that more than a few teams would not being willing to gamble a good prospect that his bat will continue to offset his inept defense.
  25. jorgenswest
    Is Willingham drawing more walks because he is failing to put the ball in play? Is he missing balls he used to put in play only to get a few more walks later in counts?
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