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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    What one week set of data would be useful in baseball? In any case, I think the data cmathewson referred to is a running total for the year (not the numbers for the week) just like any of the other number we see attributed to a player for 2013. As for Doumit, if it were an aberrant one week there would be nothing to write about. His data is consistent from 2007.
  2. jorgenswest
    I have wondered if the collection of talent at Fort Myers may be one of the best a Twins minor league team has seen. It is possible those folks will also see Buxton this year. As players move up, New Britain could be in the running. The 1981 Orlando squad had 12 players eventually play in the majors including Viola, Gaetti, Bush, Teufel, Laudner, Reed, Ullger and Havens. Hrbek was tearing it up in Visalia and somehow didn't get the call. Eisenreich was in Wisconsin Rapids. Lombardozzi and Portugal were in Elizbethton.
  3. jorgenswest
    Spot on. The way out the mess is through development of young talent. A lot rides on Gibson, Meyer, May and Berrios, but there seems to light at the end of the tunnel.
  4. jorgenswest
  5. jorgenswest
    The data goes back to 2007. He was at the bottom of rankings when the Twins signed him. That status hasn't changed.
  6. jorgenswest
    New Britain is playing concurrently. Really nice start from Trevor May thus far. 6IP, 1 hit, no runs, 2 Ws, 3 Ks
  7. jorgenswest
    ... or teams can seek catchers that will give their pitchers more strike calls from pitches on the edges.
  8. jorgenswest
    Yes. Even Drew Butera can get a hit every once in a while. I think a few of today's at bats points to the importance if getting that strike call. I think the evidence that evidence that Doumit does a poor job of getting strike call in spite of different teams, leagues, starting pitchers and umpires is consistent. And yes, even Doumit can frame a ball into a strike every once in a while. ... and no in case we go down that path, I wouldn't prefer Butera over Doumit at catcher today or any day.
  9. jorgenswest
    Why do some catchers year in and year out get more strike calls around the edge of the zone than others? No small sample here. There are tons of pitches caught every year.
  10. jorgenswest
    Was pitch 5 to Dozier also a matter of opinion? That strike call mattered.
  11. jorgenswest
    Look at pitch 1 in Doumit's at bat called a strike. Much more off the plate than pitch 3 to Kipnis. Called a strike. Pitch 4 was in the zone.
  12. jorgenswest
    On Kipnis... Pitch 3 was on the edge of the strike zone - called a ball. A good frame will get the strike call. Pitch 4 at the bottom on zone in the zone - called a ball. A poor frame loses the strike call. Now the count is 3-1. Pitch 5 is in the middle of the zone. Home run. Framing pitches matters.
  13. jorgenswest
    There are several years of data from the pitch/fx system. Mike Fast, hired last summer by the Astros, published the first study looking at a period of 5 years of data following the 2011 season. Looking season to season, the data correlates for catchers well. The same catchers in spite of changing teams or leagues continue to do very well or very poorly. I think it is accurate to state that while Doumit has been catching since 2007, the ratio of called strikes from pitches thrown in the zone is lower than any other catcher in baseball. This data correlates well from one season to the next. It is easy to project which catchers will do well or poorly based on the previous year's performance. Does it make Doumit a bad catcher? That is for teams to decide. At least one team doesn't think it matters. I would think it matters less if you have a staff of pitchers that miss bats and get swinging strikes. When you don't miss bats, you count on getting called strikes.
  14. jorgenswest
    Isn't pitch framing more like a counting stat than a measure? The data simply counts the number of pitches and tallies one of four things (in zone/called strike, in zone/called ball, out of zone/called strike, out of zone/called ball). Since it is a counting stat, I don't think it will go away. I don't think there is any argument that catchers vary in their ability to get called strikes and that the counts show Doumit is consistently at the bottom of the list. There will be great debate on how much it matters. This is where the sabrmetric folk jump in and create a metric to measure the impact of getting an extra called strike or missing a strike in the strike zone. These measures will try to turn those events into runs saved or lost. Any new metric deserves great scrutiny. Many of these metrics will end up in the dustbin. Minimally, I hope the Twins are aware of two things. - Framing the strike zone is a catching skill. - Doumit is not very good at it. How much does it matter? I don't think anyone knows.
  15. jorgenswest
    Any insight on Polanco? Why 2B? Didn't he have a good reputation as a SS? Has he outgrown the position? Have they already decided he doesn't have the arm? I am concerned because it is rare for a Low A ball second baseman to progress to the majors. Romero's case might be a little different as the Twins move him the other way on the defensive spectrum. If the Twins project him as a major league utility player or starting middle infielder, he needs to be getting significant time at SS. At 19, he is too young to be exclusively a 2B. I know the Twins have Goodrum, Michael and Santana in front of him. Perhaps the hope was all three will take a step up during the year opening the spot in Cedar Rapids. Perhaps he is a poor defender and no longer seen as a major league middle infielder.
  16. jorgenswest
    There were 76 starters with more than 14 quality starts last year. Diamond And Correia were among 10 pitchers tied for 59th with 16.
  17. jorgenswest
    Plouffe has to work hard to make the most of his limited fielding skill and instinct. If he hasn't been working hard, maybe sitting two games will help. If he is working hard and this is the best he can offer at 3B, he needs to hit much better to keep a job in MLB.
  18. jorgenswest
    In one of the articles, Lindbergh suggests that Molina would have more impact on sinker ball pitchers pointing to Hernandez this year on the Rays. Molina has played on enough teams to compare pitchers. Ricky Romero comes to mind. The article on the 12th shows how Mauer has been successful at getting high pitches called strikes. Is there anyone on the Twins who might benefit?
  19. jorgenswest
    I don't see how service time matters at his age. The Twins already have the extra year of control. They are not going to wait until July to guarantee he is not a super 2 if he is pitching well. I think we will see him soon. It looks like he has progressed well in his recovery from surgery.
  20. jorgenswest
    A tale of two Florimon's... Reports of inconsistency and missing too many routine pays have plagued him since Rookie League. Is it possible that the great glove he flashes at times can be the Florimon we see daily? It doesn't seem likely, but probably worth another month of the season.
  21. jorgenswest
    Ben Lindbergh from Baseball Prospectus is taking a regular look at pitch framing this year. A link to his most recent article. Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 4/26 The April 12 article featured Doumit and Mauer. Baseball Prospectus | Overthinking It: This Week in Catcher Framing, 4/12
  22. jorgenswest
    That missed strike call to Baker extended the inning 9 pitches. Fortunately he got the next guy, but it is going to shorten the number of innings he pitches. In his postgame news conference Gardy is sure to talk about high pitch count. Will anyone ask if part of that number is on the catcher?
  23. jorgenswest
    I would love to see Sano, Buxton and Rosario in New Britain by the end of the year. Once in AA, they are knocking on the door.
  24. jorgenswest
    Escobar had the better fielding reputation as a prospect. They really do need to play out Florimon. He isn't useful as a utility player with no experience at other positions. Once they determine he isn't the answer as a starter, they can designate him for assignment. Escobar will struggle with he bat, but is young enough to get better. His poor numbers in the minors were in the context of being among the younger at his level. That doesn't mean he is a good hitter. It just offers more hope that he can be adequate. I'd rather suffer through growing pains with Escobar.
  25. jorgenswest
    Groundball pitcher study links. Rob Neyer has some excerpts Bill James on overrating ground-ball pitchers - Baseball Nation this one from fangraphs Is Bill James Right about Ground Ball Pitchers and Injuries? | FanGraphs Baseball
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