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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Thanks
  2. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Of course, in the study I only used performance in games started. I wasn't doing it for Correia, but rather to understand what to expect from a number 3 (or 4 or 2) starter. As for Doumit, he is valuable as a hitter. Fangraphs does not factor in the pitch fx studies first pioneered by Mike Fast in their defensive calculations. So that deficit is not part of their calculation. If he is only a hitter and we ignore the catching deficit, comps in last winter's market might have been Chavez or Hafner. For some reason Correia outperformed his FIP the last two years and continues to this year. Some explain it as luck. His fangraphs WAR is FIP based. Let's hope he stays lucky.
  3. jorgenswest
    It was pointed out on this site that Correia's ERA- in 2012 was 109 which ranked 90th of the top 150 pitchers by games started. He doesn't need to rank that high to be worth the 4.5 million. In fact, his WAR on baseball reference is at 0.9 which already exceeds the value of his contract for this year. He just needs to pitch the rest of the year at replacement Level. Maybe we better trade him now. note: I see that his ERA- for 2012 is now 110. Not sure what changed since I made the spreadsheet a few months ago.
  4. jorgenswest
    I believe there are several teams that have filtered out the possibility of Doumit catching for them. That he has been able to catch regularly for a two teams that have have been among the weakest in baseball while he has played for them might also mean that those teams don't recognize his liability behind the plate. He is a valuable option as a DH/bench bat/emergency catcher. The Twins needed to find a batter defensive back up catcher. There is room for both Doumit and a back up catcher. They don't need 4 middle infielders.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think they will designate Wood clearing both a spot on the 25 and 40 man roster. He might be claimed and redesignated by someone. The Blue Jays used an extra spot on the 40 man to do that with several players. Alex Burnett and Casper Wells are two examples. Both were later claimed by other teams. The Twins did this with Pedro Florimon. They claimed him and then designated him for assignment. When no one put in a claim the second time around, he became organizational depth at AAA. If the Twins were to open a spot on the 40 man roster, it would enable them to be more aggressive with players designated for assignment by other organizations. There is little risk in designating Wood for assignment.
  6. jorgenswest
    Fair enough. In that case, the admins would need to hold themselves to a higher set of standards.
  7. jorgenswest
    I do think the Twins need both a back up catcher that is not a significant liability in the field and a bench bat/DH. I don't think they have anyone in the organization that would be an adequate solution to the back up catcher spot. It is something they needed to fix this winter. Doumit should be in the role of DH/bench bat/emergency third catcher.
  8. jorgenswest
    The original comment was in reference to his 18 home runs and 75 RBIs quoted in the discussion. Thanks for pointing out that I was not clear about which career numbers I was referring to. ThePuck had referenced OPS also. His 27 year old season was better in terms of OPS while getting his second most plate appearances in his career. I wonder if it is fair to describe last year's OPS as 4th highest when it was the only season of his career that he would have had enough plate appearances to qualify for any average title.
  9. jorgenswest
    So far, I have used only data in reference to any player. I have described them as like or not. I have not used a string of asterisks as some have to describe players like Butera. I have never attacked another writer. I do have a request. I discovered it is not possible to ignore every writer on this sure. Some can not be ignored in spite of the fact that they have not always followed the sites expectations for posts. Can this change be made?
  10. jorgenswest
    Agreed. I also enjoyed the debate. Thanks.
  11. jorgenswest
    What is the basis for likely? Is it normal that players in their 30s will continue to build on a career season? I would think he has two factors that will drive down his performance over the next two seasons. He is likely to regress to his mean. He is likely to decline as he ages from 31 to 33. As a bat, how much better is he than cheaper one year options like Chavez or Hafner?
  12. jorgenswest
    If he is a capable catcher, he is a bargain. I believe there are teams that do not consider an option at catcher. If you take away catcher and compare home to a role of bench bat/DH you compare him to a different group. Available this winter with similar OPS and no glove were Travis Hafner and Jim Thome. Hafner has a one year contract for 2 million. Thome is unsigned. We committed 7 million over 2 years. If he is only a bat, he is somewhat expensive compared to the market.
  13. jorgenswest
    There have been several studies in the last few years related to receiving pitches. You will find Doumit at the bottom of all of these studies. It may be one of the reasons he could not find a better offer after 2011. I am not sure the Twins were even aware of the study at the time. The Rays must have been. They signed Jose Molina the same winter. I believe the Twins need a better solution at catcher behind Mauer. Butera is not a better solution. I don't know if Pinto or Herrmann will be a better solution. If not, it needs to be on the to do list next winter. Meanwhile, Doumit is an adequate somewhat expensive DH/bench bat. I believe he is a significant liability anywhere he is put in the field.
  14. jorgenswest
    As a rookie in 1981, Brunansky opened the season with Angels. After hitting .152 through 11 games (41 plate appearances) he was returned to the minors. He never played in the majors for the Angels again. A little over a year later he was traded to the Twins for Doug Corbett and Rob Wilfong in May of 1982. The Twins brought him up to the majors following the trade. If the Angels had exercised more patience, he may have found success with them and the Twins may not have been able to acquire that key piece of the 1987 team.
  15. jorgenswest
    Starting SS is the only role where Florimon will be a useful major leaguer. He has no professional experience at positions other than shortstop. If he breaks his long time trend in the minors of inconsistency on routine plays, his glove may be good enough to start at SS for a handful of years. Escobar is two years younger and has an experienced reportedly plus glove at three positions. While his offensive numbers in the minors were poor, they were always in the context of being among the youngest at his level. He is young enough that his bat will grow. Players with good gloves across the infield can have long useful major league roles as utility players. As I said at the time of the trade, these guys are not easy to find. The Twins have both guys in roles that suit their profile. It is up to them to make the most of he opportunity.
  16. jorgenswest
    If the Twins decide Arcia is ready, they can reduce Doumit's playing time at DH when everyone is healthy. Any trade of Willingham or Morneau should based on the quality of return the Twins can get from a team in need of a bat. The trade should not be based on the Twins need to find him a spot for a 21 year old. When Arcia is ready to contribute, Doumit will be a valuable piece on the bench. A trade is not necessary.
  17. jorgenswest
    The Twins are suddenly very thin in CF. The Rangers need to trade Julio Borbon by tomorrow afternoon. Orioles, Astros and Mets are reported to be interested. Should the Twins be interested?
  18. jorgenswest
    Hopefully Arcia will start at least 2/3 of the games while he is up. No real second option in CF. Hicks needs to play every day.
  19. jorgenswest
    All young pitchers are a risk. Players with concussion history are a risk. Highly respected young pitchers with great fastballs are almost impossible to acquire. Lead off hitting center fielders with reasonable contracts also difficult to acquire. A good and wise trade for both teams. Meyer may hurt his arm. Span may be concussed. That won't change the wisdom of the trade for either side.
  20. jorgenswest
    He will be back when injury or trade takes out one of the bats.
  21. jorgenswest
    Look up the first two seasons of Santana and Viola. If Hendriks is out of chances, you would have given up on those too also.
  22. jorgenswest
    Find out? They should already know. Like most good prospects, the Twins started him in the most demanding defensive position possible in the low minors. He started as a CF and was moved to a corner. They found out.
  23. jorgenswest
    I think it works out ok given today's postponement. Perhaps they projected the postponement when they made the move. When he returns, I hope he has a different catcher behind the plate.
  24. jorgenswest
    Game 2 with Doumit catching According to Brooks baseball, Hendriks threw 7 pitches in the bottom quarter of the strike zone that were not swung. The result - 1 strike and 6 balls. in his first game he threw 5 such pitches. The result - 1 strike and 4 balls Must be the umpire... In the KC game, Davis did not have a single pitch thrown anywhere in the strike zone called a ball. In the Baltimore game, Arrieta had two pitches (one in the bottom quarter) called a ball. In two games with Doumit catching, Hendriks has thrown 12 umpire decision pitches in the bottom quarter of the strike zone and received only 2 strike calls. Those 10 extra balls force him behind in counts and add significantly to his pitch count. The manager's take... - he needs to keep the ball down. - he needs to keep his pitch count down. The solution... Send him to AAA I wonder if the Twins are addressing the correct problem note - as I am about to submit Bert is talking about Hendriks on the telecast. He says Liam needs to go down and work on locating his fastball. I guess it must be all on Liam.
  25. jorgenswest
    There is a void behind Mauer and his first around 100 plate appearances above A-Ball are encouraging. Too bad he isn't younger so that more growth could be projected.
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