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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Do you believe they are similar talents and on similar career paths?
  2. jorgenswest
    Ignoring the use of some stats that need a much larger sample... Gibson is an extreme groundball pitcher that also has had a low hr/FB rate over the last two years. That isn't luck. There are very few pitchers with those characteristics. SIERRA does factor in balls in play. However it assumes that a groundball pitcher will have a higher than normal hr/fb rate. Therefore it will not model Gibson's characteristics well. xFIP does not consider groundball rate and assumes a league average HR/FB rate. If Gibson is truly an extreme groundball pitcher with a lower than average HR/FB rate, xFIP will not model his performance well. More on the rare combination is at http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2015/4/4/8338029/twins-kyle-gibsons-rare-valuable-talent-ground-balls-pop-ups As for 2015, it might be wise to wait until he has 10 or so starts before we pay too much attention to the stat line.
  3. jorgenswest
    Those stats in this sample in AAA are not going to have any meaning in projecting who will perform better between Beresford and Bernier. They must have assessed that if someone had to step in for a game or two in the next two weeks, Bernier would be the most likely to have success. Later this year Bernier will be removed from the 40.
  4. jorgenswest
    I appreciate that data in a small sample size were not used to make the decision. Hicks will get his shot this year. Pinto will get his shot. I think it is the last option for both. A long stretch (~40 game) of success in AAA followed by a strategic transition to the majors will benefit both.
  5. jorgenswest
    Unless Arcia forces the issue, I would wait a few more weeks. Once in Minnesota, I would start him against all left handed pitching and slowly increase starts against right handed pitching. Confidence from success are critical. The Twins have a player that will be a useful platoon/4th OF. There is still a chance he can develop into an every day player but it can't be expected the day he returns.
  6. jorgenswest
    I think ZIPS projections had him around 240/320/400. Steamer was little lower. I don't see why he won't be close to that range with an OPS in the 700-730 range. He is below now but it is short of a meaningful sample size.
  7. jorgenswest
    You must realize that his data in the sample this year is not predictive of how he will perform the rest of the year. I sure hope the Twins aren't making decisions based on that data. At Escobar's playing time rate, it will take until mid June for walk and strike out numbers to be meaningful. The triple slash number will take a season or more at this rate of playing time. I do agree that once the Twins decided to give Santana the starting SS job, they need to give him a long look. I would give him half a season and longer if progress is evident.
  8. jorgenswest
    Any brain trust is a better evaluator than someone looking at stats in meaningless samples.
  9. jorgenswest
    It takes so long for a reliever to have a sample size significant enough to even look at strike outs and walks. I think it is around 170 plate appearances. The only way to assess is to be on the staff watching them pitch ingames and on the side. Ryan was there last week. He saw Tonkin. He was with the staff. There is no question in my mind that they went with the guy that they felt would help the Twins the most. It is Tonkin Time. Hopefully for good.
  10. jorgenswest
    Go Michael. Pitch well and force them to move someone else when Casey comes back.
  11. jorgenswest
    May has two more starts before Nolasco will be available. While Nolasco has been out both Pelfrey and Milone have put up starts that are better than any of Nolasco's 28 starts as a Twin (using game score). He might not be one of the best 5. If he isn't, he belongs in the pen. Easy decision.
  12. jorgenswest
    On Boyer's last week.. It is true that he hasn't given up his own runners. The relievers that followed him did a good job of keeping them from scoring. He has allowed all 3 of his 3 inherited runners to score over his last 4 games. That is a pretty low bar for pretty good.
  13. jorgenswest
    I certainly argued that the best decision was to roster both of them in the spring. I don't know what their internal plan was for Pinto. I do know they believed Vargas was ready. He didn't make the roster because of Pinto's injury. I know that they believed in Santana as their SS prior to spring training. I know they assessed that Schafer was their best option in CF. If management trusts their baseball people, it is too soon to react and send them down. If management no longer believes in the people making roster decisions, that is the problem. The Twins may have a bigger problem than was fixed by firing Gardenhire. They may have an organization incapable of assessing baseball talent. Time will tell.
  14. jorgenswest
    Still too early. Suggested on the radio show this morning (either Laudner or Morris) that 40 games was the time. Pitchers have adjusted to Santana and Vargas. They need some time to try to adjust back. Will they give Hicks and Pinto the same small sample then flip back? That is no way to run an organization or develop players. I did not agree with many decisions this winter or spring. If they believed in the decisions of their baseball people, they have to let it go longer. If the baseball people are incapable of making good decisions, they have more trouble than Hicks or Pinto can fix.
  15. jorgenswest
    Slash line stats stabilization point 910 AB: AVG 460 PA: OBP 320 AB: SLG That is for a single player. I am not sure what it would be for a trio. Probably more than 48 PA.
  16. jorgenswest
    It is too early. Their baseball staff assessed the roster and made their decisions. They need to stay the course. They can't react to a few weeks of slump. They need to let it go longer. They also need to let Pinto and Hicks go longer. If they flip them now with Vargas and Santana (with Escobar at SS and Nunez utility) and the numbers are reversed, do they flip them again in three weeks? If their baseball staff is incapable of making good decisions, it really doesn't matter what they do. They will not progress to a contender. Without good decisions, a team in the Twins market cannot win. One decision is really hard to fathom though. They have a reliever who had the lowest career WAR in the history of baseball for any reliever with over 100 innings. He has further solidified his spot in that list with his performance this year. That was clearly a very poor decision based on a handful of spring appearances. An experienced GM should know better.
  17. jorgenswest
    He can be a valuable platoon/4th OF right now. Success in a role where he starts against all lefties and occasional right handed pitchers could build his confidence towards a more full time role. I would not hand him centerfield full time when he returns. Twins faced a left handed starter in 56 games last year. The options they have now against those lefties is very thin. Pinch hits options when a LOOGY comes in are nonexistent on the bench. Hicks and Pinto would change that. Give him 100 PAs in AAA. If he is not struggling, bring him up.
  18. jorgenswest
    I don't see a team with young players seeing Gardenhire as a fit. If a team is out of contention, Gardenhire is not the manager to finish the season. His bad teams never play well in August and September. I would go interim and look for a manager in the winter when the pool is larger. A team with veterans and a need for a change to a player's manager might be a good fit. Does that describe any of the team's above?
  19. jorgenswest
    Nolasco's first rehab start is Sunday. It will likely take at least two as he builds towards 100 pitches. The 5 in the rotation have at least two more starts before a decision is made. If they are all pitching at 4th starter level or better, it would be foolish to replace them with Nolasco.
  20. jorgenswest
    He is a valuable platoon fourth OF. Not a last chance, but the next time up might be in that role.
  21. jorgenswest
    With almost every move since Ryan returned, little value has been placed on defensive skill. While I do believe he cares that players play the game right and throw to the right cut off man, I don't think he values skill defensively. It has contributed significantly the Twins inability to prevent runs. The only solution the front office can see is to exchange mediocre pitchers with different mediocre pitchers. Give mediocre pitchers a bad defense behind them and league bottom catchers in front of them and they perform among the worst in baseball.
  22. jorgenswest
    The next time they bring him up has to be for good. Give him at least 100 PAs in AAA and then assess.
  23. jorgenswest
    They need to let Pinto continue to catch regularly in AAA. the next call up needs to be the last call up. In another thread we might be able to make a long list of bad short term free agent signings that are continuing the cycle of mediocrity and delaying the rebuild. The Twins would have a better chance to rebuild if they didn't feel obligated to spend money.
  24. jorgenswest
    It is too early. Once they decide to send Hicks down, they need to give him a long enough stretch in AAA. The next time they call him up needs to be the last time. They likely poorly evaluated Schafer's skills when they took him to arbitration. Give him 120 PAs and assess. Stubbs is not a good solution. He is now a below average defender in CF. He is past his prime seasons. His numbers were home fueled in 2014. Trading for him based on that performance would be like signing a decline phase reliever with Petco fueled numbers. The Twins already have a guy that can compete with his road 211/283/333 and struggle against right handed pitching. Give him some more time in AAA.
  25. jorgenswest
    It isn't always about the player that is in the majors. They must have assessed that Tonkin or Presley having something they need to work on in AAA. If true, there hasn't been near enough time for them to have made progress. The same can be said of Pinto, Hicks and Rosario. I think they made the wrong decision, but they make it worse by sending them to AAA for a short time span without giving them time to make progress. For Tonkin, Presley, Hicks and Pinto let's hope the next time they come up is for good and progress is evident.
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