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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    also Connor Prielipp, Mick Abel, Zebby Matthews, Taj Bradley, Marco Raya and anyone else they add to the 40. They need to take the best 12 pitchers next year. They shouldn’t worry about keeping a pitcher stretched out. Build up the pitch count with each start.
  2. jorgenswest
    I have a few wonders… Can we expect a repeat in last year’s performance level given his age? If he does decline and the Twins are on the hook for 2 million how long will we wait until he is released? I also wondered about relief pitchers that signed for 2 million last year. Maton amd Raley were pretty helpful to a bullpen. There are others that were helpful at 2 million or below. 2.25 million more and you get Justin Wilson. There were also signings that didn’t work out often due to injury. One thing in common of all of these signings is older age and often injury history. That fits Topa also. Two million is in line with an aging sometimes injury troubled pitcher. Do the Twins bet on Topa or do they look elesewhere in the pool of aging relievers? One thing that may be in the favor of looking elsewhere is other options will likely have a longer track record of success. One thing in favor of keeping Topa is the Twins should be better able to win the bet on his health than on an aging reliever outside the organization. If they question his ability to stay healthy they should move on.
  3. jorgenswest
    It is very difficult to play a passable major league first basemen. It takes good hands and feet. It takes quick reactions. It is the same set of tools found in catchers and infielders which creates a bigger pool of players that can play first base than most positions and maybe leads to the erroneous impression that any major leaguer can play there with work. My guess is that Larnach and Wallner worked out at first base in both college and the minors. When Larnach hit AA the Twins used 9 different first basemen. In AAA it was 12 different first basemen. Wallner was on the same AAA team in 2022. They didn’t try him either. I don’t see how there can be any other conclusion other than they worked out there and didn’t have the necessary tools. There was news recently that the Twins were working Hendry Mendez at first base. That’s a good thing. Maybe he will get a chance at 1B in the fall league. If he is never used there can we assume that he doesn’t have the necessary tools? He has spent time in the Brewers and Phillies organization without any time at 1B. Some guys can’t do it. If he doesn’t get time there I am going to assume the Brewers, Phillies and Twins concluded he doesn’t have the tools to play there. I hope you will join me.
  4. jorgenswest
    Can we all agree that Counsell has made the playoffs 7 of the last 8 seasons including 5 with the Brewers. He has done this in spite of never being a coach or manager previously. Doesn’t that seem pretty relevant to this Hunter discussion?
  5. jorgenswest
    @Parker Hageman Appreciate your thoughts here. The Lewis part had me recalling Hunter’s first years in the majors. He knows what the shoes of a struggling top prospect feels like. He has been in those shoes. He has shuttled back and forth in his first few trips to the majors. I wonder if that will make a difference in working with players in that part of their baseball journey. This along with all of your thoughts make him a worthwhile candidate. I am in. He will need to find an experienced bench coach. He will need to identify a pitching coach that he trusts and gives full control over pitching decisions. He needs the Brian Flores of pitching coaches. I think this can work.
  6. jorgenswest
    It is rare. If Rodriguez qualifies it will be injuries as I said earlier. Did he have 90 days of active service in each of his five full season minor league (one will be 2026)? His first season of complex league ball shouldn’t hit the 90 days. If not he will not have had 5 full seasons and be eligible for a 4th option. I guess I have to do a little more work here. In 2022 he had a season ending knee injury on June 8 after playing 47 games. The first day of the season was April 8. Is he credited with 90 or more days of active service that season? I don’t know how active service is calculated. In 2024 he also played 47 games but he was in and out so counting the days and interpretation of active service isn’t ac clear. In 2025 he played 65 games. That might not have hit 90 either. 2022 is the most clear. I think it is 62 days April 8 to June 8. I don’t see how that gets to 90 days of active service. I think Kennys Vargas is the last position player for the Twins getting a 4th option and playing in the majors.
  7. jorgenswest
    Thanks for the video. I appreciated the insight of the types of players that tend to be kept. I think that has to factor into the Twins decision making. It is very difficult to stash a position player on the roster. How can an outfielder that doesn’t play a major league centerfield be kept unless that player is a starter? Eventually injuries will create a need for that roster spot. It is also hard to take an infielder that doesn’t play a major league shortstop. If a catcher is taken they need to be ready to handle the load of a second catcher. The need for roster spots is a Twin consideration also. Every roster spot given to a player that needs more time in the minors essentially shrinks the 40 man roster. More in season DFAs will result.
  8. jorgenswest
    Fangraphs couldn’t know if he will qualify for a 4th option. In order to qualify the Twins will need to use an option this year and one of his injured seasons has to be less than 90 days of active service.
  9. jorgenswest
    Not sure. His first season in the FCL had 51 games. Would he have accrued 90 days of active service? Seems unlikely. Did injuries prevent him from 90 days of active service in any other season? Maybe.
  10. jorgenswest
    from Google AI In Major League Baseball, a player may be eligible for a fourth option year if they have used their three standard options but have not yet completed five full seasons of professional baseball. This is most common for players who spend time in the lower minor leagues or miss significant playing time due to injury. Who is eligible for a fourth option? A player qualifies for a fourth option year if they meet all of the following conditions: They have used all three of their regular options. They have less than five "full seasons" of professional experience. What counts as a "full season"? For the purpose of the fourth-option rule, a full professional season is defined as any season in which a player accrues at least 90 days of active service on either a major league or minor league roster. Time spent on the injured list can sometimes contribute to the 90-day total, but only after a minimum number of active days are logged. Rookie-level leagues and other short-season minor leagues, which have seasons shorter than 90 days, are often a key reason a player doesn't reach the "five full seasons" threshold and becomes eligible for a fourth option.
  11. jorgenswest
    I don’t think they saw Outman as a two month rental. They must have seen the risk though. He is a legit centerfielder and as long as he can hit passably he is a good option as the CF on the bench. They have the winter to work with him and get him to that passable level. He has hit in the minors and hit in his full season. It is a risk but there is upside. If he can get his bat into to the Michael Taylor range he will probably have a spot on the bench in the majors. They took the risk and they need to be able to take the loss and move on if doesnt improve his hitting. Rodriguez and Jenkins are coming soon and play centerfield. Outman probably has until they are ready to show he is a passable or better hitter.
  12. jorgenswest
    The Pirates have had a top 10 ranked prospect pool for several years running. I looked at the last 14 Fangraphs team rankings and they are top 10 in 13 of 14. They are top 5 in many. I have wondered if there is a relationship between prospect ranking and winning. Those strong prospect rankings have not translated to winning for the Pirates.
  13. jorgenswest
    I will take two seasons and a comp pick from Ryan. I would not move him until the deadline in 2027. I am not going to worry about injury or labor dispute. Teams get 6 years of control of a player. The last three are often better than the first three. Keep him through his prime and then move on.
  14. jorgenswest
    I don’t know where they are headed. I will pay attention to where they are. No reason to brood about where they are going until they get there.
  15. jorgenswest
    It really isn’t about happiness. It isn’t about winning the World Series. Each of the 162 games matter next year. Their starting pitching can make many of those games competitive. More competitive if they keep the core, bet on the upside of young position players and identify arms for the bullpen.
  16. jorgenswest
    I am torn here. I want a competitive team in 2026. My previous take would be to bet on the long term if your a 92 loss team. I would bet on Culpepper and Lee. I would roster Fitzgerald. I would look for the Willi Castro types out there seeking a fresh start. The Twins looked to have opportunity at the time he signed as Correa was a free agent at the time. I think middle infielders needing fresh start would see the opportunity. Sign a few and hope for a Castro. On the other hand if they want to sign Bo Bichette you won’t hear an argument from me.
  17. jorgenswest
    All seem promising
  18. jorgenswest
    Seems like it is the same debate we had about Farmer. He was said by some to be easy to tender and trade. The Twins were left stuck with the contract and replacement level performance. Young players were in AAA while he had a roster spot. Perhaps some believe Larnach has excess value beyond the 4.7 million. Is it enough excess value to take the risk that he will be holding a roster spot all year?
  19. jorgenswest
    AI summary from google The metrics heavily based on pitch framing and stolen bases do not favor Suzuki well. Scherzer believes in him. Though. It is hard to measure leadership, game calling, the ability to communicate and a presence that provides confidence. These are probably skills that translate to the manager role. My guess is this information was scraped from reports in 2019 when the Nationals won the World Series. I am not sure what the 2025 Scherzer would say about Suzuki today. Does he still see that same leadership, communication and game calling skills?
  20. jorgenswest
    Why are the future values of Ballesteros(45+) and Long(40) so underwhelming? Neither is ranked near the top 20 in MLB or Fangraphs. A top flight prospect and more is what my line would be for Ryan. Otherwise I keep him. note: the FV comes from Fangraphs but those have been the more realistic. MLB pipeline will have a 55 in the mid 100s and that just isn’t possible. Not near that many prospects will make that kind of impact. An FV 55 is an above average regular. Take a look at the MLB Pipeline 50th prospect from 2011-2020. One player in those 10 years had a significant major league career. Willson Contreras was an FV55 and more than fulfilled that future value. Another guy had a good rookie season but was let go by his team after three years. Nick Gordon is third best. He had one season close to average.
  21. jorgenswest
    I just wonder if those 2 million dollar back ups need to have close to an average glove to get those dollars. Playing a passable major league catcher is high bar. I am not sure that Pereda meets it and it seems clear that Gasper does not. Is passable glove and no bat enough for a back up?
  22. jorgenswest
    Maybe his slow start makes him attainable.
  23. jorgenswest
    I have wondered about this. I wonder if catching is so difficult that the catchers that tend to be available are ones with a passable glove and little ability to hit. I wonder if the ones that have good gloves, call a good game and work with pitchers well all have jobs and aren’t easily acquired during the season.
  24. jorgenswest
    Really appreciate the work. There are successful managers in the list.
  25. jorgenswest
    Isn’t part of being an elite defensive catcher physical skill that he may have been lacking? He must have brought something to catcher. He was not great at throwing out runners and led the league in stolen bases given up three times. He wasn’t a great framer. He must have been pretty good at those other hard to measure aspects of playing catcher or he wouldn’t not have had the lengthy career there. I think it is those hard to measure aspects that will translate to managing better than throwing out runners and framing pitches well.
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