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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    The play of Nunez and the struggles of the young outfielders may be a factor in Nunez filling in at 3B more often than Sano.
  2. jorgenswest
    In last year's free agent crop, there were few deals to compare to one year and 10 million. If he is the player he was in 2014-2015, then a contract similar to that of Kendrick, Desmond, Rasmus or Utley may be reasonable and surround his arb figure. Span and Parra are also in that neighborhood but over three years so not really a comp. Kendrick was two years. I don't think his arb figure is out of line assuming he performs as expected the remainder of the year. He just doesn't fit the Twins. The Twins would be better off spending that money in a position of need. They should have done that last winter. He would have value to a team with a need. The acquiring team needs to pay both his salary and in players to the Twins though. Unfortunately, there isn't a lot of space after the salary to also get much prospect value in return.
  3. jorgenswest
    Do any of the ERA estimators account for a difference in performance with runners on base and no one on? Are those differences assumed to be luck? Are there a handful of pitchers whose skill level drops significantly when throwing from the stretch? The various estimators of ERA converge with ERA around 500 innings. For many pitchers, they do. For Nolasco, is it possible that ERA is a better descriptor of his performance than the various ERA estimators? If I am a team considering Nolasco for my rotation, I want to be convinced he can prevent real runs. I want a to be convinced that his history of pitching poorly with runners on base has simply been 8 years of bad luck.
  4. jorgenswest
    I don't think Arcia and Molitor are a good match. Arcia shows a lot of emotion and passion. Molitor stays even and probably gives more respect to players that can do the same. It is possible that the return of Sano and Santana will lead to the DFA of Arcia. The Twins will be gambling that Grossman's future will be better than Arcia's. They can not afford to lose on this bet.
  5. jorgenswest
    I can't imagine teams are going to be swayed by a few good starts leading to an ERA of 4.93. If his performance is going to be noticed by other teams, he needs to show it by preventing real runs and not just the kind that show up in his always better FIP and xFIP. An 8th consecutive year of bad luck? Might be. It also might be the continued disparity between his performance with the bases empty compared to his performance with men on and men in scoring position. That disparity doesn't show up in FIP or xFIP. It only shows up in ERA and RA. Is pitching with runners on base a skill or is it 8 years of bad luck? I think teams looking for a pitcher this summer are going to pay attention to the bottom line. If the Twins have any chance of trading Ricky this summer, he needs to show he can prevent real runs. Three runs in 7 2/3 innings is a good start but he is going to need that and better over the next 8 starts to convince teams to take on his contract and maybe even throw in a future utility player.
  6. jorgenswest
    Is there reason to be concerned that his numbers in the first inning over the last two years are markedly worse than other innings? A starter does face the other teams best hitters in the first inning but it doesn't explain a 11.70 ERA in that inning this year or the 5.04 first inning last year.
  7. jorgenswest
    Another attack on the character of hard working men. At times it is an embarrassment to be associated with this board.
  8. jorgenswest
    Bunting, stolen bases, few home runs... Ned Yost was old school until he started winning and his bullpen use became the new school.
  9. jorgenswest
    Teams have used the fastball 55% of the time against Park. The only one on the team thrown a lower rate of fastballs is Sano at 52.2%. He does see more split finger fastballs (3.3%) than anyone else on the team though those don't carry the same velocity. Park has been thrown a greater number of curve balls, sliders and change ups than the average Twin hitter. For some reason Park is seeing more junk than most Twins. Maybe it is his spot in the line up. I should add that recently demoted Rosario has seen more split fingers and fewer fastballs than Park.
  10. jorgenswest
    I would think they will give Cuthbert a long look.
  11. jorgenswest
    Teams are too smart to get swayed by hot and cold streaks. Suzuki had a great first half in 2014 but teams look at multiple years when they project the second half. He didn't increase his value to anyone beyond the Twins. Streaks are not going to change the reality that the Twins have little veteran value to deal. Dozier and Plouffe will have more value than Nunez. Winning teams value defensive skill and owning several gloves isn't the same as defensive versatility. I can't imagine any winning team would play him in the middle of the infield with any regularity. Jepsen will be a free agent. While he closes for the Twins, he had the value of a 7th inning guy last year with a year and a half of control. Now he is a 7th guy that is a rental. It will be hard to find a taker for Santana's contract. There will be little if any competition for his contract driving down any perceived value. For Suzuki, Nolasco and Hughes, it is probably place on waivers and hope for a claim. If someone makes the mistake of claiming as the Orioles did with Willingham, the Twins must let them go (as they should have with Willingham).
  12. jorgenswest
    I wonder if it is more important that the Twins have someone reliable in the minors working with the young pitchers. Moving up Rasmussen and leaving a void may not be a wise move long term.
  13. jorgenswest
    I concur with those keeping him in the minors until later this year. I would wait until the all star break. If he has sustained success through that time, bring him up. Unless this team makes a dramatic turn around, there will be a spot for a hitter.
  14. jorgenswest
    I looked for instances when teams changed GMs in season. I did not see an example of a team hiring away a key member of another team's front office during the season. Most recently the Tigers fired Dombrowski last August but stayed in house to replace him with Avila.
  15. jorgenswest
    Looks like other teams are pitching around him and attacking the guys behind him who are more unlikely to put the ball in play.
  16. jorgenswest
    I read it very differently. Polanco has not had a chance to have sustained success in AAA. It is reasonable to expect that he will struggle given regular play in the majors over the next year or so. That's quite different from having no faith.
  17. jorgenswest
    We understand sample size and variability very differently.
  18. jorgenswest
    They need to play Dozier through the All Star break. As Escobar returns send out Polanco to play AAA. He has 146 PAs and has been OK but not near dominant. They have had enough guys try to be successful in the majors with little or no AAA time. After the All Star break, trade Dozier and Plouffe for whatever they will bring. Turn it over to Polanco, Buxton, Kepler and Murphy if they have demonstrated sustained success in AAA with particular attention to their ability to stay in the zone on breaking pitches. The same can be said for Walker, Vargas and Rosario. Find a space for them if they have shown an ability to command the zone at AAA. That is 7 guys and it might be hard to clear that much space, but the reality is they won't all show the necessary understanding of the strike zone to be successful at the major leagues.
  19. jorgenswest
    Nice article. The Cardinals model works because of the a highly skilled staff throughout the system. The model doesn't matter of you don't have the people to execute it.
  20. jorgenswest
    Is there anyway that we can refrain from characterizing to men working hard for a career as trash in a dumpster? Robbie Grossman is 26. He was not a first round draft pick. He didn't enter baseball as a top 100 prospect. Josh Harrison is likely the only guy drafted in his round that will end up with more career WAR. I appreciate the persistence, effort and determination these men put forth to get to the majors and have a career. I can continue to put folks who makes these characterizations on my ignore list but it seems that more are gravitating to that place.
  21. jorgenswest
    1) It was a mirage but probably around 4-6 wins. Perkins was so incredibly successful the first half. Other members of the pen, Boyer and Thompson, were very successful early. 2) Mauer's concussion radically shifted his aging curve. 3) Prospects require patience. The Twins have not had the patience to give many a half season at AAA before bringing them up. The path has been AA and then the majors and then return to AAA and bounce back and forth. Fans react to good or bad months when they have little meaning statistically. We might want to wait until age 26 before deciding if a prospect is overrated. It is fair to say Meyer was overrated. Guys like Arcia who made a top 100 list in only one season were really not rated that highly to begin with.
  22. jorgenswest
    Compared to 2015, he has played enough this year to look at some rate data and pitch level data. His strike out rate has improved this year. His walk rate has improved this year. His swinging strike rate has improved. He is swinging at a lower rate of pitches out of the zone. It is a little early for ISO, but it has declined this year significantly. The slash stats need most of a full season to stabilize. It takes a couple of full seasons of balls in play to consider BABIP. His career BABIP is .266 and this year it is .232. There may be some bad luck in that number.
  23. jorgenswest
    Players will struggle when enter the majors. They can't learn to hit major league pitching in AAA. Players might need two full seasons of major league plate appearances to make adjustments and show consistency. It is hard to wait out those 1000 or more plate appearances. There is important development that happens at AAA. Pitch recognition at the forefront as there are older pitchers with more refined change ups and breaking balls. Players should be given the chance to find sustained (1/2 season) success against AAA pitching. With that success, they can be ready to struggle at the major league level. The Twins have brought up several players with little AAA experience. Many were sent back. They need to show a long stretch of sustained success before they return.
  24. jorgenswest
    They need to look long term. This winter's free agent group is poor and void of any good starting pitcher. There will be guys similar to the Santana, Hughes and Nolasco type signings. The lack of supply will lead to some bad commitments to decline phase mediocre pitching. The Twins need to avoid making those commitments. The group following the 2018 season is tremendous at this point. The Twins young players will begin entering their prime seasons In 2019. Mauer and Santana will come off the books. Nolasco will have been off the books for a year. The Twins need to give themselves the pay roll flexibility to compete in free agency that winter. Meanwhile, any commitments to middling players this off season needs to be short. They can overpay for two years instead of competing at 4 years. They need to find a staff that can develop this talent. I think there is little evidence that the current major league staff is elite in their ability to develop the skills of young players. They need to find that staff and they should be searching now. Expect growing pains in 2017. Demand that the Twins hire a staff highly skilled in developing that growth. It might be a guy that they could turn to now in Mienkiewicz. What is the downside of finding out? It might take a couple of staff turnovers before they get to 2019.
  25. jorgenswest
    Grossman is 26 and once a BP top 100 prospect(76). Seems like the kind of player bad teams should be giving a shot. They may well get a few good years of useful play. Meanwhile, let the young players get extended playing time at AAA.
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