jorgenswest

The Mets have D'Arnaud back from injury. The Red Sox have the resources to go after Lucroy or Norris. Toronto has Russell Martin. His defense and framing are far superior. I would think the Blue Jays would project his bat to be at least similar to Suzuki's over the second half. That leaves Cleveland. Would they see Suzuki as an upgrade over Gomes? Gomes certainly has he better arm. If the Indians are the only reasonable spot for Suzuki, wouldn't the supply far exceed the demand? There would be no reason for them to give up one of their better prospects. If the Twins demand Mejia, the Indians can simply look elsewhere.

If the return is little, why trade Suzuki? Do the Twins have a 2017 solution at catcher? Murphy - maybe. His BABIP of .091 and even the .233 in AAA is well below his previous levels. While with the Twins, his swinging strike rate and out of zone rates were better than his career norms. He wasn't hitting line drives as he had previously. He also wasn't pulling the ball near as often. That may indicate a change in approach but the sample is small. I don't see why he can't hit at an adequate level for the catcher position. If his hitting is just adequate, his defense needs to be better. Is it? Regular play the last two months with the Twins might help answer that question. Garver - he is riding the other end of the BABIP range. His .332 is probably not something he would maintain. He also has work to do defensively. He will benefit from a full year at AAA next year. The Twins should not plan on Garver as a starter next year. He could be a solution for 2018. Turner - if his defense is as real as advertised, he might be able to start his Drew Butera career line in the majors next year. If the hope is that his bat will develop into that of a starter, he needs the full year at AAA. Centeno - will either his offense or defense be at least adequate? I am not certain. He came with a good defensive reputation, but I am not sure that defense has shown up. He seems to have trouble blocking balls and framing pitches. His arms seems OK, but the results aren't there. The Twins might see the need to retain Suzuki for another year paired with Murphy. The value in trading him for little return is that it might force the Twins to seek a different solution.

MLBTR analyzes the catcher trade market. http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/07/catcher-trade-market-mlb.html It seems like a large supply of catchers that will exceed the demand. How would other teams view Suzuki in the group? Is Suzuki someone they would particularly target over the other options? Do they see him as a cheap fall back if their other options don't work out? Is there a catcher the Twins should target either now or in the winter?

From the day of the trade... http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2013/07/02/cubs-trade-feldman-clevenger-to-orioles-for-arrieta-strop-and-bonus-money/ The Twins could look for a similar guy at 27 that was once a top prospect 3-4 years ago followed by no success over numerous opportunities. They can hope that a change of scenery will help. Maybe their scouts see something that the Twins coaching staff can fix. What will be the reaction if the return is a 27 year with a 7.23 ERA before being sent to the minors even if he was the number 67 prospect 4 years ago? The Twins picked up the 2012 number 76 prospect for free this year and were criticized.

Started this poll just prior to the half way point. I wonder of perceptions have changed in a week. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/23075-twins-record-second-half/ Looking at the early results, one week has changed perception.

It isn't a conundrum yet. Give Vargas regular play through August and Park a long stay in AAA. Hope for a conundrum.

I don't think the Twins can get a significant return in prospects for Santana. I think teams will see him as the route to go if they don't want to pay the prospect cost of an Odorizzi or Teheran. They might prefer taking the contract and keeping the better prospects. Even if the Twins offer to pay salary it doesn't help because they enter the Santana market with the hope of keeping their good prospects and willing to spend the dollars. He might be at his high selling point this July. That high point might not include the kinds of prospects that some are hoping for in return.

The supply... Ervin Santana Rich Hill Julio Teheran Drew Pomeranz Matt Moore Jeremy Hellckson Jon Niese Matt Shoemaker Sonny Gray Andrew Cashner Jorge de la Rosa Tyron Ross (if returns and shows healthy) If the demand isn't greater than the supply, only the most desirable of these options will get a return of top prospects. I don't see Santana among the most desirable. If the Twins asking price is too high, teams will look elsewhere. Right now the Rangers are looking to Kyle Lohse. It would help if the Twins can get them to look elsewhere.

Pomeranz, Teheran and Odorizzi will come with a significant prospect cost. The appeal of Santana is that his return would be much less in prospect cost. I think to get even a moderate prospect, the Twins would have to pay some salary. If the demand is a top prospect, teams would be wise to go after one of the other three. Once they move, demand for Santana should increase.

Hill going to Red Sox. Reyes with Mets. Two teams found an infielder at no or little prospect cost. Gourriel still available. How much demand will there be for Dozier, Plouffe or Nunez? Is there a supply of other players like Hill with a low cost of acquisition?

If the Twins are reasonably certain he can continue to perform as a number 4 starter over the next two years, they need to keep him. If they look at a large group of similarly aged and performing pitchers, I think that they will find that far less than 1/2 of those pitchers can continue as a number 4 as the progress into their age 34 and 35 seasons. The Twins would need to see something special in Santana that would suggest that he will decline at a slower rate than typical and avoid injury more common with older pitchers.

Baltimore gave up a 27 year old failed prospect with 63 starts in the majors with a 5.63 ERA and no good seasons. They also gave up a 28 year old reliever who did have a nice season at the back of the bullpen at age 27. He also was a waiver wire pick up after being dropped by the Rockies. There is probably a 27 year old failed pitching prospect who hasn't pitched well In several years available. The Rangers have a few younger guys like Chi Chi Gonzales and Anthony Renaud. The Red Sox have Matt Barnes who would be seen as better since he has pitched well in relief. They also have Joe Kelly. Liam Hendriks might fit the description. He is 27 now. The Twins just need to find the Arrieta out of the dozens of others that won't turn it around. They then need to have the coaching to turn it around.

Fair enough. If Arcia returns a player or Jepsen gives salary relief, isn't that what we are hoping to get from the likes of Nolasco or Plouffe? I would put Santana in the salary relief group also. They might not count either. In that case, the Twins have very few veteran players worthy of a return. Everyone should go under on th number.

I am not as confident in trading Santana. Something is not right. He is laboring to get through 6 innings throwing a lot more pitches. This year he is over 100 pitches per 6 innings. Last year it was 93. In KC it was 90. I am not sure how to compare Atlanta since NL pitchers have the advantage of fewer DHs and disadvantage of getting pulled strategically for a pinch hitter. The increase is batters fouling off pitches that were once swinging strikes. Without the ability to miss bats, he has become more similar to Mike Pelfrey than the pitcher he was in 2013-14. His velocity remains the same but he really has no more space to decline and still be effective. I don't think they need a good return if they can get out of their 2017-2018 commitment.

Is the trade counter already at 2? Arcia and Jepsen were part of the opening day roster. Arcia has been moved. Jepsen is yet to be resolved. The return is minimal but similar to what we might expect from Nolasco or Plouffe. Space is cleared on the roster.

The difficult part will be 40 man issues for the other team. Adding prospects that an acquiring will need to put on the 40 will not be as enticing since they would have to take someone off their own 40 to make room. The more valuable pieces are those that are not in the 40 (and don't have to be put on the 40 in the winter). Those pieces are really valuable to a rebuilding team also. Roster issues are probably why not to many of these deals are made in July. Teams also are looking to fix a short term problem as cheaply as possible. They would not be interested in including better prospects for an extra lesser prospect. They will just look to another team

Kintzler might be of some interest.

I hope they can trade Santana. It will be tough. He hasn't eaten innings with just 84 innings in 15 starts. That is less than 6 innings a start. He has performed as a back of the rotation starter with an ERA of 4.22 and FIP of 4.26 over his last 32 starts. His performance is in line with expectations but not in line with his contract. The Twins should expect a little more decline over the next two years.

I found 14 teams that won between 23-27 games in the first half. There are more to find but I couldn't figure out a quick way to get the information. It was enough to help me set the over/under number. All teams won at least 30 games in the second half. Two teams played better than .500 ball. The 97 Phillies went from 23-58 to 45-36. The 2010 Orioles went from 25-56 to 41-40. The group was centered from 34-36 wins which is how I picked the over/under. There is one Twin team in the group. The 82 Twins went from 24-57 to 36-45. It is unlikely that the Twins will perform abov .500 in the second half. It is very unlikely they will repeat their dismal performance of the first half. Other than regression, there are some baseball reasons that will lead to improvement. Their young players particularly in the outfield will likely play better. It is unlikely that whoever closes the ball games will pitch as poorly as the closers in the first half. I think Berrios will make an impact and improve on the production on Milone/Dean. I think Duffey will be better. I am not as confident about Sano's health, but I do think he can better. They certainly can get better production from DH. Even if they trade some of the infield, Polanco has the ability to step in and perform reasonably well. For this reasons I think they will be closer to a .500 team than a .325 team. Somewhere around 35 wins. Optimistically, I will go for the over.

If streaky is part of Dozier's skill set, how much does it matter? If at the end of the year he has a mid 700 OPS, does it matter how he got there? Perhaps by the end of the season Dozier has had a significant impact on 40 games. Does it matter that those 40 games were clumped together? If another guy gets to 40 spread evenly through the season is that better? I don't really know. I searched for a study. I do know that when he is hot they can be comfortable throwing him in the middle of the order. Maybe there is concern amidst a cold streak that he won't have the next hot streak. When he was doing poorly this May, his pitch level data suggested that he hadn't changed from the player he was previously. There should have been little reason for concern then. There was nothing in that data to suggest his very low BABIP at the time was a result of a loss in skill.

I don't have confidence that Molitor and Ryan are the pair to pull it off, but the Twins have the core of players to turn it around quick. The keys of course are Berrios, Sano and Buxton. All have the reasonable upside to be very good next year. If that happens, they have enough other pieces for the foundation on offense. They do need to tear down the bullpen and rebuild. That can start happening today. Dozier can absolutely be a key piece of the next competitive Twins team. Any return has to be a key piece of the 2017 team.

The Twins will be closing out a dismal first half this weekend. What do you think their record will be in the second half? Will they continue their same dismal pace or worse? Will they approach .500? Somewhere in between? If they improve, what signs will we see?

I don't think the Blue Jays would trade their current 2B straight up for Dozier. Travis is 25. He has a career OPS of .835. He is a better defensive player. He isn't even up for arbitration until 2018. With the return of Peralta, the Cardinals are playing Carpenter and his .999 OPS at 2B. Behind Carpenter, Peralta and Diaz, they have Garcia, Wong and Gyorko. The Cardinals have greater needs. I don't think either of these teams would be motivated to go after Dozier and give up a significant return.

I may be misunderstanding the "should've" since they were exiting their primes. In no way should the Twins have expected 12-12 records with 4.14 ERAs from Nolasco and Santana. At best, they should have hoped for 2 or 3 seasons between the two of them out of the 8 at that level. I think the performance they have received is much more typical of similar pitchers in their ages 32-35 seasons. They are getting what they paid for. Hughes was in his prime and the Twins locked him up throughout his prime years. They were fools to extend him after a single good season. He would have been off the books after this year looking for a minor league deal. It is signings like these that continue the cycle of mediocrity.

Players don't ride the roller coaster of value. His value hasn't suddenly changed. He is a slightly above average 2B in the prime of his career. If a team has a bottom quartile 2B, he is a significant upgrade. Reyes is of the Market. Gourriel can play 2B. He won't have a prospect cost but will have a contract commitment greater than Dozier's. His return will really depend on the market. What other potential 2Bs are available? Which teams don't have a reasonable in house alternative? I suspect the Jays are content with the return of Travis. The Mets are going to give Reyes a shot. The Royals have Merrifield playing well right now. Gourriel hasn't signed yet.