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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    His xFIP (and therefore related peripherals) of 4.75 are a little worse than his previous few seasons but he is older. I expected him to be close to a league average pitcher and his performance related to things pitchers can control have him close to that neighborhood.
  2. jorgenswest
    When was the last time a top starting pitcher was traded in summer and the return had no one in the top 100 prospects? I don't think the Twins can make up for high end prospects by volume. They missed opportunities with the selections of Stewart and Jay and they are paying for it now with the lack of high end talent in the system. I hope I am wrong but there will plenty of buyers and almost all of them will have better high end prospects.
  3. jorgenswest
    I think another team will come up with a better headline prospect. It doesn't get it done unless the Twins are willing to part with one of their young players on the major league roster.
  4. jorgenswest
    I guess anyone would make a deal where the Twins give up a little and get a starter. I don't think that is reality. Starters during the season are very expensive in terms of prospects. There will be enough competition for Grienke that he will be expensive also. The Twins don't have the prospects to get a deal done for a good starter and even a middling starter that might be a number 4 on a playoff team will cost a very good prospect. Reverse it. Suppose the situation reverses and the Twins put Santana on the market. Do you take the equivalent of a Gordon and Garver? The key to any deal is the best prospect and I would think that the market would offer someone better than a Gordon for Santana. So no, I don't think the trade route will work. I don't want to part with Buxton or Berrios or Kepler to get pitching and the drop off to the tier of young players in the minors is too steep to generate interest. The Twins need to count on Berrios and likely Mejia and Duffey to fill any holes in the rotation.
  5. jorgenswest
    Now that they have made the assessment that he is ready, I hope he will get a long look regardless of results. His turn comes up 11 or 12 times prior to the all star break. As long as he remains healthy, I hope there is no thought to returning him to AAA until at least the all star break. How long would you let him go if he is struggling?
  6. jorgenswest
    I don't think they should be interested in a rental for this year. Ideally they would acquire someone under control through 2019. That is not likely but they absolutely need 2018. The team is just too many pitchers away from really competing in the playoffs. Do they have a single arm in the bullpen that would be pitching innings 7,8 or 9 on a playoff team? Would anyone other than Santana be starting? I am old also, but I believe they have a shot to get it right with this wave of players. I want them to get it right.
  7. jorgenswest
    Adrianza is a very good defensive SS. Santana may have a better bat, more speed and better defense in the outfield but he doesn't do any of those at an average level. Is it better to have the contribution of one above average major league skill as opposed to a wide mix of below average skills? How will the Twins utilize that one skill?
  8. jorgenswest
    I hope he makes it through waivers and gets regular playing time in AAA. Reading through the numerous posts in this site, passing through waivers shouldn't be an issue.
  9. jorgenswest
    Is that what I said? I tried to emphasize that they were seeking for leadership. I don't know how to measure their success. I would assume that some veterans are very skilled and others are lacking. I also would assume that they weren't confident that the young players they had returning had developed those skills yet. Was it an unreasonable assessment to come in and determine that the Twins were seriously void of leadership? To address that they bring in Belisle and Giminez as well Torii, LaTroy and Michael in the background. I don't think I said anywhere that they preferred veterans over youth. It seems the roster has several young players. You drew me in though. Really I would be most wise use to ignore rather than reply. I apologize for the tone. Hopefully I won't bite again.
  10. jorgenswest
    I think Falvey and Levine believe Giminez gives them a better chance at winning games this year. I have no idea how to measure his contribution while on the bench. I do think that the front office values that contribution.
  11. jorgenswest
    I concur. No need to change the OF defense though.
  12. jorgenswest
    I don't want to see Grossman in the OF on any regular rotation. I would rather rotate the three. That is enough work to keep them all sharp.
  13. jorgenswest
    I think Falvey and Levine believe Giminez brings something to the team that isn't measured in the data. They spoke of the need for veterans and leadership on this team. They knew Giminez well it was clear when he signed that he was coming in to be on the major league roster. I think they believe Belisle brings something beyond his data also. As a mathematician, I want to be able to measure their value. I can't in this case. I either need to trust in Levine and Falvey's roster construction or not. If I don't, I really need to question their competence. The only real changes on the roster were Castro and a couple of aging veterans on the bench. That presence was among their top priorities raking on the team. I can also question Berrios but I choose to trust their also. The Twins haven't developed a starting pitcher in years. I hope the next time Berrios comes up it will be for good. If that's the case, I don't care if it takes half the season.
  14. jorgenswest
    There was debate on this site about extending Kubel in 2014 after a first month of an OPS of around .800. He was gone in June. Can we wait until August before even considering extending Santiago? He is an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park that is friendly to home runs by right handed batters. Of all AL parks his ERA in Minnesota is the highest. Most similar fly ball pitchers get by with high strike out rates. Santiago doesn't match those rates. I sure hope the front office doesn't make decisions based on one month of numbers. A sample too small to have any value in projecting the future. They need to confidently project the next few years. Let's postpone this discussion for another 15 starts.
  15. jorgenswest
    I hope so. Molitor had me thinking it was going to be Tepesch this morning.
  16. jorgenswest
    Mientkiewicz and his staff saw a lot of Polanco at SS. Their input should have had significant weight in the decision to play him at 2B exclusively in AAA last year. Let's hope the assessment of that staff was wrong. Any implication that someone outside the organization might influence that decision is inconceivable. Let's also hope that they still are heavily invested in Gordon at SS. The future of the middle infield is Gordon and Polanco.
  17. jorgenswest
    I wouldn't expect his 1.2 innings to be enough to know if he is healthy. You would think that they would want to see him with his normal velocity and spin rate over several appearances and they would also want to see how responds pitching on consecutive days in AAA where they can more easily control his workload.
  18. jorgenswest
    Glad to see Vargas up. They need to get his bat in the lineup routinely. It will mean more time in the OF for Grossman. That is probably OK with Buxton and a bigger liability when anyone else is in center. Hard to get excited about Boshers. Every team will have an arm or two on options move back and forth from AAA to the end of the major league bullpen. These guys have a short term chance to make an impression. I hope he makes the most of this opportunity. Either way, this kind of bullpen shuffle isn't worth pages of commentary.
  19. jorgenswest
    Both Berrios and Duffey need an extended shot in the rotation. 50 starts. Both will get their opportunity soon enough. I don't care which one gets a shot first but the Twins need to develop their own starting pitching. I don't see any long term solutions among the other 4.
  20. jorgenswest
    Numbers... It is going to be a long time before slash stat numbers have any value in supporting whether or not a player should be called up. Even in a large sample, slash stats don't indicate well whether a player is ready to hit major league pitching. Use them in a large sample (think full season). If the Twins management is influenced at all by minor league slash stats at this point, this franchise is hopeless. The eyes of a trained staff seeing a player everyday should have significant influence. Hopefully they have not looked at the slash stats at all. Anyone who does is sure to find wildly varied BABIPs.
  21. jorgenswest
    He is my starting center fielder all year. He needs to learn how to hit major league pitching and that won't happen at AAA. For the same reason, Berrios needs to be up learning how to get major league hitters out. Their upside is worth the full season of struggle.
  22. jorgenswest
    The Twins have tried to change their approach since the acquisition of Jim Hoey. They acquired Meyer and May. They have drafted with more emphasis on velocity since 2012. It takes a long time to turn around an organization by drafting and the cost of acquisition is very high. Thus far there is little evidence they know how to develop high velocity pitchers into successful major league pitchers. Maybe Falvey and Levine can make a difference here.
  23. jorgenswest
    It is fun. They will probably have a few other 6-3 stretches this season. Gives hope when you start the season with one.
  24. jorgenswest
    Short of an injury, the front office should stick with the roster they determined twas the best to begin the season. They could not have learned anything new in 9 days. They shouldn't react to a 8 game sample. It would not have been my 25, but I want a front office that makes a reasoned decision followed by patience in the short term.
  25. jorgenswest
    Yes. They deserve credit. They have 1 very productive year out of 2. Hopefully the next 2 will continue to be league average or better. Two very good years out of the 4 would be more than what should have been expected when compared to pitchers of similar age and performance at the time of his signing.
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