jorgenswest

Castro is a good choice offensively but there may be some value in pairing catchers with a pitcher. Are there pitchers that benefit more from framing? Will the younger pitchers have a greater need for an experienced catcher? Catchers may platoon but it is not obviously clear that it should be based on the opposing pitcher. It might make more sense to platoon by Twin pitcher. Mauer, Park and Vargas also represent a possibility. There is no way to know when scouting by stat line whether Vargas has an advantage one way or the other though. He does not have enough career major league plate appearances against either side to answer the question. While his major league slash stats look good against lefties the sample is so small it should be ignored. It also conflicts with his minor league data where his slash stats have been better against right handed pitching. Park's record, unless there is something from Korea that should be trusted, has less. Mauer playing less would be helpful but it might be better if he is the bench guy getting starts against right handed pitching rather than the starter sitting only against lefties. Hopefully Kepler develops into a solid hitter that does well against both sides of the platoon. That can't happen unless he sees enough left handed pitching.

Duffey's WAR was good because the FIP was good relative to the Twins. His xFIP was also relatively good. Unfortunately, the exit velocity of balls in play wasn't very good. Hughes and Jepsen were worse among Twins when looking at fly ball line drive exit velocity. I wouldn't be surprised if we learn that exit velocity is a "skill" and there is a correlation year to year. More data is needed before that happens. If it does, the varied ERA estimators will go by the wayside as exit velocity becomes a variable in those calculations.

Grading the projection systems based on 2016. Steamer did quite well http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded 2015 - Steamer again did quite well http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2016/1/14/10733872/steamer-zips-pecota-marcel-projections-review

I am not sure where the 1.5 comes from. is it KATOH? Somehow that must have come from 10.1/6. Is that what this debate is all about? KATOH? KATOH is a nice tool. I really doubt there will be any prospects that are going to compare to projections for veterans in their prime. It doesn't make mathematical sense to compare them. Otherwise no team would ever trade a veteran hitter for prospects if they wanted comparable WAR projections. How many pitchers exceed De Leon's 10.1? Any of them exceed 10.1 significantly? A year ago Urias was a 12. That is a whopping extra 0.3 per year. The last KATOH I found for Giolito was at the trade deadline last year. It was 4.5 WAR for 6 years. De Leon was 10.4 at the time. I think the 10.1 projection might support that De Leon is one of the best starting pitching prospects and possibly the best pitching prospect on the market.

I would not be concerned about Newcombe's walk rate as long as the strike out rate is high. It is not unusual for very good pitchers to have high walk rates (even in AAA). I think it can be a mistake for teams to try to fix it. In fact, you can learn from looking at k+bb rate. It shows a pitcher's dominance and a hitter's inability to make contact. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-8507-searching-for-radke/ http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6339-alex-meyer-and-aaa-walk-rates/

League average pitching from a mid rotation starter is very valuable. The Twins win the deal if they get that starter in a deal for Dozier. Does that mean they should be satisfied with De Leon? Not necessarily. Getting two significant pitchers in that deal increases the likelihood that one will be that league average starter. That might not be a reasonable expectation given the limited market.

If the result of the Dozier trade is one mid rotation starter under team control for 6 years, it will be valuable addition to the team and probably more valuable than two years of second base from Dozier.

Good projections are critical and important to success. I would think teams in house have much more detail in the data to develop their projections. The projections we can see will be far better than simply using 2016 data to forecast future performance. They won't be perfect. There is far too much randomness involved in human performance. That variability should not be an argument that they should be ignored. Great forecasts based on data and the eye of trained personnel is a key to success for any team.

I was interested in whether most similar players continued to hit well. They did. I don't think he has the value of a 40+ HR hitter today and I don't believe that will be his value in the summer. According to the market his value appears to be a Jose De Leon. The chances are reasonable that his value remains at that level into July. It is a risk. He could be injured. Fly ball/pull hitters tend to fluctuate more in the small sample of a partial season. If the Twins are trying to squeeze out a few moderate prospects, it might not be worth it. They should take De Leon. If they are trying to get a second top prospect and can't this winter, it is possible the demand will be greater in July.

I think there is a reasonable chance (~30%) that Gibson has a better ERA than Santana next year. He was better in 2015, their xFIPs were 0.29 apart last year and I think Castro will have more influence on Gibson's performance. It is likely Santana will move towards his xFIP and possible Gibson towards his 2015 line. Santana still should have the edge as he will go deeper in games and pitch more innings but their projections will probably be close.

On Feliz... He is projected for a 3 year deal at 6 million per year. It is hard to imagine his age 29-31 seasons will be better than his age 26-28 seasons. As a whole the last three years were mediocre for a late inning reliever. They varied geatly individually as often happens in the always small seasonal sample of a relief pitcher. I would be very hesitant to give him a three year deal. A one year deal at 8 million would be preferable to 3/18. With the appearance of a good half season, they can trade him at the deadline and replace him with a similar guy next winter. If Feliz declines or is injured again, they only are committed for a year.

It is balancing Dozier's potential value over the next two years and the potential value from prospects over the long term. I am not sure that Dozier is under valued by some but rather the long term is prioritized over the short term.

I don't think teams are valuing Dozier at his 2016 performance level this winter. They would be foolish to do so. I think they seem him with an OPS in the higher 700s. I think he will perform in that range next year.

The Dodgers don't need to offer the Twins an equivalent return. It just needs to be better than any other club is willing to offer. They don't need to outbid themselves. They know the Twins need pitching long term and Dozier is controlled for the short term.

I am hoping he was or will be included. Time will tell.

One of the questions the Twins must be asking is whether Brian Dozier will retain his value. We have seen his streakiness in season, but season to season he has been pretty reliable. I do wonder if hitters with his characteristics (pull hitters, fly ball hitters, relatively high ISO, right handed) tend to be more streaky within season. On the other hand, slash stats don't stabilize short of a full season and really aren't very meaningful in splits. We shouldn't expect them to be reliable by the month or half season. I looked for a comp group with a similar age 26-29 seasons centered on Dozier while trending up at age 29. Searching for right handed hitters with a similar OPS+ and ISO, I found 30 hitters since 1991 with a 4 year OPS+ of 115 and ISO of .215 (Dozier is 114/.208). There were 31 in the age 29 group with an OPS+ of 139 and ISO of .251 (Dozier was 136/.278) The overlap group includes Andruw Jones Brian Dozier Chris Carter Corey Hart Dan Uggla Dean Palmer Ian Kinsler Kevin Youkilis Mike Lowell Pat Burrell Paul Konerko Rich Aurilia Todd Frazier Troy Glaus Vinny Castilla Yoenis Cespedes Chris Carter is the same age as Dozier. Carter and Jones aren't great positional fits in opposite directions. My interest is whether Dozier will continue to hit though. This group of healthy regulars maintained their heath for the most part ages 30 and 31. Only Hart lost a season (31) due to injury. Six of the twelve age 30 seasons made the all star team. The median OPS+ was 127. A drop from the age 29 season but better than the career number. It isn't surprising that it was a drop from age 29 since I looked for players that trended up. That group did not regress very much. Only one player Glaus did not play a full season at age 30 but even he had 456 plate appearances. Jones and Kinsler had an OPS+ below 100 and only Jones had a bad season at the plate. There was a drop at age 31. Jones and Hart were injured. The median OPS+ was 107.5 (without Hart). This group is dropping off. Dozier is probably not a good extension candidate. The discussion needs to be centered around dealing him now, dealing him later or keeping him through age 31. I do wonder if this type of hitter declines earlier than typical but I don't expect that decline to begin next year. Holding onto Dozier for a year seems a reasonable gamble. The Twins don't need to trade him for fear that he will fall apart next year. It could happen. It could also happen that the players they get in return fall apart. That is why they must get more than one significant prospect or wait until they see that offer.

There needs to be a relevant second prospect first. Heyman on the 21st and Neal this week independently reported that there has to be a prospect beyond De Leon. My heart is with your report Dave, but I don't see the Twins passing that one up. If the Twins had anything to do with the Neal report, they made it known they are looking for an additional prospect beyond De Leon. Why put that out if they already have that deal on the table? Heyman "It is known that the Dodgers hold two other top pitching prospects — Walker Buehler and Yadier Alvarez — in extremely high regard, and it’s quite likely that L.A. wouldn’t be willing to deal either of those two prospects along with De Leon." Neal "The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked."

Neal wrote "The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked." MLBTR interpreted "Neal suggests that the sticking point between the Twins and the Dodgers, who have long been the clear primary suitor for Dozier, has been that Los Angeles is seeking a straight up, one-for-one swap of Dozier and top pitching prospect Jose De Leon." It isn't clear whether non-prospect minor league filler types have been offered. Does that even matter? I think it is fair to read Neal's article as the Dodgers have offered no other prospects in the deal. MLBTR's statement is a little stronger with the one-for-one but the only real difference might be AAAA types that have little chance to have any major league impact. I don't get how the front office would pass up De Leon and Alvarez. I do get how they would pass up just one of them. My heart wants to trust Dave's source but I have to balance that against the reporting of a veteran reporter respected in the industry and former president of the BBWAA.

I think Eaton is a reasonable enough comp. I don't think the return from the Nationals sets the market though. It is a single transaction and possibly an outlier beyond where other teams see his value.

I have been trying to think of an equivalent from the Twins perspective. There is no way I would trade Berrios and Jay for Eaton or Dozier. Dozier has two years of team control for which he should have an OPS around his career mark of .762 representing very good production at 2B. Eaton has the extra year and a slightly better career OPS. He can play CF which is more valuable than 2B but his plus defense is on a corner. Corey Seager is far more valuable in years of control, age and position.

"The Twins have been pushing for De Leon plus another prospect, but the Dodgers haven’t blinked." I find La Velle's article and source credible. It doesn't specifically state that De Leon is the lone player offered but makes clear he the only prospect. It makes sense that the Twins front office hasn't embraced this deal as they should have embraced a deal that included De Leon and Alvarez. While this gives me more faith in the new front office, I wish there was a better market for Dozier. If De Leon is the best offer, do the Twins take a major league ready pitching prospect with many years of team control or keep Dozier? Both have risks. The market for Dozier could be better in July. Young major league ready pitching prospects projected to be mid-rotation starters are very valuable and don't move often. They might be able to get a pitcher a year or two away but lots of stuff can happen as they progress through AA and AAA.

La Velle's story and source seem credible. The Twins may regret keeping Dozier over De Leon. It is very difficult to acquire major league ready young pitching. I don't think a pitcher that close to the majors is available in the summer. It is also easy to understand why they are expecting more in return.

If DeLeon and Alvarez are on the table and the Twins management doesn't take the deal we need Terry Ryan back.

I think I would make that trade. I have changed my thoughts on trading Santana. I do want to understand better the correlation of injury and aging. I suspect that injuries to older pitchers make it less likely that they will recover.

I would have agreed with you until I looked at a similar group of 20 pitchers that centered slightly above league from ages 29-33 while above league average in the age 33 season. There were injuries and the innings drop was significant. However, it was a skewed group. I took a group of healthy pitchers. Had I taken a random group there would have been some pitchers injured at 33 and contributing innings at 34. If I had taken a group of healthy 28 year olds and looked at their next three years there would be an innings drop also. I might need to do it to see the increase in injury risk. It surprised me that the ERA+ weighted by innings of the group did not decline significantly from ages 34 to 36. The age 34 dropped from 33 but was almost the same as the average from 29-33. At age 35 and 36 it was 94 and 96. A drop... but not steep and still valuable to any team. I don't know how many starts Santana will contribute and the next injury could be significant. That can be said about any pitcher. I do believe that he will be a valuable pitcher the next three seasons when he does pitch. Near league average starting pitching has been difficult to find in Minnesota. It would take far better than prospects than those that slot in 10-15 to persuade me to give up a pitcher I expect to be near league average. It is going to take a near ready pitching prospect that I am confident will be contributing in 2018 and mid rotation in 2019.