jorgenswest

He doesn't make the top team prospect list in BBA and isn't among the hundreds in the minor league baseball analyst. It isn't his bat. Antony one of improvement on his radio show this summer. Most recent comment came from Sickels and the fall league this year. "Garver has made considerable progress refining his defense, throwing out 50% of his runners this year" That is good news but they don't make those kinds of comments about good defenders. He could have said he is a good receiver or even average receiver but went with improved. It also sounds as if the improvement is in the throwing game. I think it will be the receiving and game calling skills that will be valued by Falvey. I expect he will seek an above average receiver and not worry about the bat at catcher. Garver will have an opportunity to show he can defend at that level in AAA. If isn't at least an average receiver, he will probably go the way of Josmil Pinto. if Garver is a good receiver, Falvey will recognize it and he will play.

Cleveland was a defense first organization at catcher. They were horrible offensively, Gomes was hurt and they still had no interest in Suzuki. They stuck with Perez who can't hit but does everything well defensively. If Falvey brings that same model, I can't see him giving the catcher job to Mitch Garver. It could be that Garver is a very good pitch framer and game caller. That has never been his reputation though. Turner has had a reputation of a good defensive catcher. I think both will start in AAA and their defense will be under the microscope with the better defender getting the nod when needed.

Pelfrey and Correia were 29-32 year old signings on a 1-2 year deal. In 2013-14 they were waiting on Hendriks, May, Meyer and Hernandez to be ready. I am not sure that plan worked out that well. Are the Twins any better off today as a result of those signings? Were they that much better off in 2013-14 as a result of those signings?

Well thought out and reasonable plan. No long term commitments/burdens beyond the necessary addition of Castro leaves flexibility for the future.

Cardinals have three starting infielders in Peralta, Diaz and Carpenter under contract. If they are willing to trade pitching, outfield looks like the greater need.

Very well thought out post. Thank you. The comps represent a reasonable ceiling for Dozier. Given that CF and C are more premium positions, the Heyward deal is probably the best of the comps. They absolutely should be looking for a team control 24-25 year old pitcher with some successful major league experience in return. It will be hard to find a match though. De Leon doesn't have a major league track record but is ready. If the Dodgers offered him alone for Dozier I would have a hard time turning it down. I wouldn't spend too much time trying to squeeze out a prospect and have them find another solution for 2B. They need to take the best young pitcher major league ready pitcher offered rather than fight for a package of younger players.

Thanks for sharing the report and taking the time to add the details. I hope the immediate dismissal your words received won't discourage you from contributing in the future.

Neither split sample is enough to draw a conclusion about Vargas' ability to hit left and right handed batters. It takes a large sample for slash stats to become reliable - particularly those chunked over the first three years of a career. Did you know that in each of the last three years in the minors he hit better against right handed pitching than left? At Rochester last year, he had an OPS of 926 against right handed pitching and 484 against left handed pitching. Over the last three year he has been better against right handed pitching when combining majors and minors. That doesn't mean anything either except to point out the need for a large sample to make sense of situational slash stats. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=573627#/splits/R/hitting/2016/MINORS

Solid offense doesn't do a good job of making up for poor defense up the middle. There are just too many opportunities for lack of range, poor feed on the double play and errors to occur at those spots. When that happens innings are extended, pitch counts are extended and bullpens are overused. The burden on the pitching staff of poor defense at key defensive positions takes a toll in places beyond a player's defensive ranking. I still do think it is possible that the Twins find a way to play Polanco at SS. They need to mare than make up for his deficit at catcher and center field in order to play him. Buxton should be the starting CF all year. They need a real back up plan that can actually be a plus glove in CF though. Santana is not an option. Rosario and Kepler are not options for any long term play in CF. The combination of any of those three and Polanco would be a losing one. If they want to play Polanco, they need a catcher who can contribute more outs stopping the running game. They need a catcher with receiving skills that is on the plus side of framing strikes. A handful of extra pitches every game will lead to more innings from the starters. It is not a matter of just raw count either. Getting that extra strike in any at bat is going to shorten the entire at bat. Starting 1-2 vs 2-1 or 0-1 vs 1-0 will force the batter to be more aggressive and swing at pitches outside the zone. The Twins don't have that catcher ready for next year. It isn't going to be Centeno. It isn't going to be Garver. I don't know if Murphy can be that framer. For his career, he is a plus. He isn't going to contribute outs in the running game. Want to start Polanco? Find a defense first catcher (no bat required) and back him up with Murphy. Do you like the possibility of Garver's bat at catcher? Find a defense first SS and see if Garver can be ready by June. Want to give up a lot of runs and burden the bullpen? Play Suzuki, Polanco and Rosario(or Santana) at the key up the middle spots.

Falvey needs to shake up the pitching staff throughout the system this winter. I hope he has Pohlad's blessing on a short leash for Molitor in 2017. A shake up during season may be necessary.

Is the best argument for keeping Molitor start with a statement like "It's not his fault that the..."? Is that a good enough argument? I am interested in hearing any argument about why the Twins should keep Molitor and what does he bring to this team that would be difficult to replace. I can start with... He is a well respected man and hall of famer. He is local and appears to care deeply about baseball in Minnesota.

This starting staff seems so far away from winning. Might be wise to trade Ervin before he falls. Is this team going to contend next year? What will Ervin have left two years from now? They must get starting pitching in any return, but maybe that starting pitching is going to be a key piece towards a contending team.

Sorry. I wasn't aware that a top tier manager has a contract expiring.

Simply because the established top tier managers are already employed. More likely, they will need to find someone who will join that their with some experience.

If the Twins want a top third play off caliber team, they ought to seek a manager who is among the top third in baseball. Is there any evidence that Molitor is that manager? Is there evidence that he will grow into that manager? The Twins probably can't hire that top tier manager. They need to find a manager that is going to grow to be among the better managers. A younger manager growing with a young team is a better fit. It was an argument some made two years ago and I don't think it has shifted much today. This is not the right place or time for Molitor. They should seek someone else.

I wonder how much Walker's inability to play defense has an impact on the decision. Grossman hasn't been out there much lately either. if they are going to have Polanco and Sano in the infield, they might need the gloves of Rosario, Kepler, Buxton and Schafer in the outfield. Grossman has started one game in the OF since August 28. He was banged up but I think he is healthy and sitting now. There is a place for Walker and Schafer on the roster, but there might not be a place for Walker's glove in the OF. There isn't room at DH. The Twins need to do everything possible to prevent runs. Schafer, though he isn't in the long term plans, can make a much better contribution to the defense than anyone else in AAA.

By age and rank at position, Maeda is a good fit. There is a premium on starting pitching so the Twins would probably have to send an arm to the Dodgers. Maeda also has a laden incentive contract that is very reasonable with longer control. He doesn't have a long track record though. Dozier has three solid seasons from which to project forward. A popular name to throw out in this site is Stewart, but I have to think that the Dodgers might not see a lot of value added from a guy with such a low strike out rate. That will depend a lot on what the scouts see. Scouting Stewart by stat line isn't very encouraging. It will probably need to be someone more significant. Another target might be Chris Archer. He also has a solid three years. They are close to the same age. Archer's season this year looks like a drop in performance but his xFIP remains among the best of starters. This is the guy I would target. It would take more than Dozier. The Rays would find a place for Dozier in the field and have always been very flexible positionally. If not the Rays than perhaps a three team deal where the Dodgers get Dozier and the Twins Archer. The Dodgers send one of the young prospect pitchers like Deleon and the Twins send a significant prospect (It will take more than ABW) to the Rays.

Eye test... I wonder about his feet. He doesn't seem to put his body and feet in the best position to receive and throw the ball consistently. Poor position to throw will lead to weaker throws and the appearance of less arm strength. I think we have also seen an arm that appears strong enough to start at SS at times. Can he improve? That is probably best answered by the team who has watched him and his progress throughout his minor league career. It seemed like the Twins made that assessment entering the season and are now having second thoughts.

That 13th player should have options. They are going to want to go with a 13th pitcher at times and will need to send someone out. That wouldn't work with Plouffe. They could send Park, but if he is doing well they don't want to keep Plouffe over Park. Other than that, they could send an OF or Sano. I hope that isn't necessary. A guy like Walker might work. He is 25 so less worries about needing to play every day to develop. He has two full seasons above A-Ball. His right handed bat and better k/bb rate against lefties might get him a few starts a week for Rosario or Kepler or Mauer. If he doesn't hit, they can give Palka a shot.

The Yankees were reported to have made many waiver claims in order to block players. There was an insider article on ESPN a few days ago. If the Twins don't plan on taking Plouffe to arbitration, they should have let him go. I wouldn't have taken him to arbitration last year. The money would have been better spent on the bullpen or a veteran outfielder with a good glove like Austin Jackson (who probably can in cheaper than Plouffe). Since they didn't let Plouffe go, does that also indicate that they plan to bring him to arbitration. Maybe not. It could be that they want to leave that decision for the new GM. His arbitration contract will be very difficult to trade and probably made it difficult to trade last winter. Had they non tendered Plouffe, they would have a better answer about Sano at 3B. they don't have time to get an answer now. It takes a minimum of a few months of regular play to see whether there will be growth and improvement. Nothing is learned in the last month of the season.

They don't need to trade Dozier this winter. It is reasonable to expect performance similar to the last three years. His trade value will remain strong as long as the Twins don't extend his contract.

Was there a report that Plouffe cleared waivers? He could have been claimed by a team with no intention of making an offer.

I never saw that Plouffe cleared waivers. They could have given him and his contract to the claiming team without getting a return. I guess teams in the playoff run prioritize defense in their catchers. Suzuki's bat would have been an upgrade in a few places but it is a defense first position.

I think they need to spend the money Plouffe would have received in arbitration on pitching. If they take him to arbitration, his contract won't be tradeable. They shouldn't offer him arbitration.

Wouldn't Garver's success to this point suggest the Twins have handled him well? His bat has remained solid as he moved up the ladder and his defense is reports to be much improved. Mishandling might be expecting him to be a major contributor at the major league level from opening day next year. They can hope that he will arrive with little time in AAA, but need to plan otherwise. Planning for him to arrive in the summer with a larger major league role in 2018 would be more reasonable.