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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I like the number of starters angle but I wouldn't count pitchers with just a handful of starts. I wondered about the number of starters who started more than 8 games. At that level the difference between replacement level and number 5 starter might be a game. Over the last 5 years (courtesy baseball reference) 5 starters - 18 6 starters - 56 7 starters - 44 8 starters- 22 9 starters- 8 10 starters- 2 Of course some of the the extra starters come from sources other than AAA. A July trade will add to the starter count of the acquiring team as well as adding to the count of the trading team. It seems reasonable that most teams should expect two of their AAA starters to have a significant role in the rotation by the end of the season. I think the Twins have the depth to manage that need without rostering Vogelsong.
  2. jorgenswest
    I don't think they went to arbitration if that makes a difference.
  3. jorgenswest
    Sorry. I should have defined peripherals. For pitchers key peripherals are events that are most directly under their control. Strike out rate, walk rate and fly ball rate are all measures that stabilize in relatively small samples. They are the basis for most ERA estimators and have shown to be a much better predictor of future ERA than previous ERA. I hope that is helpful.
  4. jorgenswest
    His peripherals were best among Twins starters last year. The peripherals are a much better predictor of future ERA than an ERA driven by an extremely high HR/FB ratio, a significant drop in double play rate without a drop in groundball rate and an extremely low LOB rate. Is it possible the combination of bad luck and awful defense have derailed his future as a Twin? He is 26 years old with 36 major league starts and a career xFIP of 3.82 (xFIP- of 91). There are only 9 living pitchers through age 25 with a better xFIP- over the last two years. Even if the xFIP overstates his ability, he absolutely needs to be on the 40 and must be given every opportunity to be a part of this rotation.
  5. jorgenswest
    If thoracic outlet syndrome symptoms set in over the course of the game, wouldn't Hughes be a better fit in a relief role?
  6. jorgenswest
    They could turn to the guy that had the best xFIP among their starters last year at 3.89 (Santana was 4.21).
  7. jorgenswest
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/03/trevor-may-diagnosed-with-torn-ulnar-collateral-ligament.html
  8. jorgenswest
    I tend to agree. Does it matter that Park has is the one with options? They would have to DFA the either of the other 2 to go to 12 pitchers. They would have to DFA them at the start of the season but that comes at a time when all teams feel the roster crunch. I hope the 25th man is not currently on the roster. The Twins will have the top claim at a time when all teams are making difficult roster decisions. They had an early claim in 2014 when JD Martinez was waived towards the end of spring training. They opted to roster Kubel and Bartlett instead.
  9. jorgenswest
    Why does there have to be any issues? It is a tiny sample of spring at bats.
  10. jorgenswest
    My concern would be this will turn into Mauer sitting only against tough lefties. While true that a mediocre lefty would be easier for Mauer to handle it is also the kind of pitcher that Vargas might crush. If Mauer faces any lefties at all, it should be those that might be more difficult for Vargas or Park. They need to make sure they crush mediocre pitchers.
  11. jorgenswest
    I hope the analytics approach doesn't include looking at slash stats in a sample that one season would provide. No decision should be based on that sample. For slash stats, it would probably take three full seasons to get a good sample of plate appearances against left handed pitching. There may be some value at the pitch level data in a full season.
  12. jorgenswest
    It isn't clear to me that it was a mistake to move him to 2B full time a year ago. He had played under Mientkiewicz the previous two years and they had to be going on reports from that staff. It is very possible they correctly assessed that he would not field nearly well enough to be a starting SS at the major league level. If the Twins had made the same assessment about Plouffe and Santana, they would have been more prepared to play positions other than SS instead of learning those at the major league level. Now the Twins are betting that their assessment a year ago was wrong. I think that there is a lot more hope than substance in putting Polanco at SS. The payoff is big if hope wins out.
  13. jorgenswest
    His numbers in spring won't mean anything. We can go by the expert eyes of those who see him several times in camp, but those eyes will be Twins staff and I am not sure they will be forthcoming in their reports. It will be a very difficult debate to support on this site with no useful data other than his last 2-3 seasons in the NL. We already have that data and it isn't encouraging.
  14. jorgenswest
    I saw they have Gimenez working in the outfield and at first base. Might they carry three catchers? Will a veteran like Gimenez in the 25th spot bring unmeasured value on the bench and in the clubhouse?
  15. jorgenswest
    I looked into how the Indians used Chris Gimenez last year. He was the primary catcher for two of their pitchers in Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin. He didn't catch Kluber at all and caught few of Carrasco and Salazar's games. The Indians had three right handed catcher so platooning by opposing pitcher wasn't and ideal match for them. I wonder how much they valued matching a pitcher with a catcher. Will that carry over to the Twins? Will platooning catcher by Twin starting pitcher rather than opposing pitcher give more value? If it were a computer game, the choice is obvious and they should sit Castro against lefties. On the field, I don't think the choice is as obvious. There have been a few occasions where the Twins matched a catcher to a pitcher. Junior Ortiz caught Scott Erickson on the 1991 World Series team. That was brilliant. Gardenhire inexplicably matched Sam Deduno with Josmil Pinto virtually guaranteeing that both would fail. That decision was indefensible as they sat a catcher whose one plus defensive skill was blocking pitches whenever the pitcher on the team most in need of a blocked pitch took the mound. What do you think? If the Twins were to match Castro with three of their starters, where does he fit best?
  16. jorgenswest
    Escobar had a bad year. Injuries played a part. I wouldn't forecast the next year based on a single season for any player. I think it is reasonable that he can post an OPS of .700 while being average defensively at SS. That isn't exciting but he was better than that in 14 and 15. If he is at that level, he is a very valuable bench player.
  17. jorgenswest
    The starter with the best xFIP and SIERA was Tyler Duffey last year. Both have a higher correlation to future ERA than ERA. His xFIP+ was 8% better than league. The disparity between the two was huge. He had the perfect storm of a bad defense, abnormally high HR/FB rate and a significant drop in DP rate compared to 2015. I would plan to have Duffey in the rotation entering spring. The Twins can't afford to miss on any young starter. Duffey, May and Berrios are critical to the Twins short and long term future.
  18. jorgenswest
    How is his data more trustworthy than that of Dozier, Santana or Plouffe? I see in the data 200 games at 2B in the minors and almost exclusive play at 2B by his winter ball coaches. It would have to be extreme incompetence on the part of the Twins to play his that often at 2B that often if they thought he had a shot to be a decent SS. It is critical teams keep players as far to the right of the defensive spectrum as long as possible. I am curious what you see in the data that gives you more confidence in his ability to be decent than the three players above who couldn't make it. All three played SS a much greater rate of time in the minors.
  19. jorgenswest
    I suppose the same could be said about Plouffe, Nishioka and Dozier as they started playing shortstop for the Twins. There were people who questioned their ability to play decent defense at SS in the majors. Perhaps they were unreasonable. The Twins did seems to have more confidence in Plouffe and Dozier at the time they arrived given they had stayed at SS through the minors. The Twins moved Polanco away from shortstop a few times including the start of 2016. Reports of his struggle with defense have been around since he hit high A. I think there is a good chance his defense won't approach my understanding of decent (not in the bottom quartile). Call me unreasonable.
  20. jorgenswest
    Groundball pitchers Duffey and Gibson will benefit most from Adrianza. Duffey had the best xFIP and SIERA among their starters last year and he seems the getting little consideration for the rotation. He mixed an extremely high HR/FB rate and a significant drop in double play rate last year driving a huge disparity between ERA and xFIP. The HR rate will regress and Adrianza should help considerably. I could be wrong about whether the Twins view him as a starter but I hope his xFIP- of 92 offers them some hope that his ERA was driven by both very poor luck and very poor defense. They should be counting on him for the rotation.
  21. jorgenswest
    I hope the Twins management doesn't subscribe to the belief that Vargas can't hit right handed pitching or even that he is better against left handed pitching. On this site, it seems to have become a fact perhaps based on major league slash stats in a short career. He also has had a better OPS against right handed pitching in each minor league season from 2012-2016 in a much larger sample. There might be enough sample to look at strike out rate and walk rate over his major league career, but those are not far enough apart to draw a conclusion. It could be that Vargas can't hit right handed pitching well enough to be a DH. If true, I suspect that his ability to hit left handed pitching will be similarly inadequate.
  22. jorgenswest
    You certainly wouldn't use slash stats at that sample. You could look at strike out rate, walk rate and pitch level data. If those rates were close to the same as before 2015, you could be more confident that his skill level hasn't dropped. Unfortunately his strikeout rate against lefthanded pitching is over 40% since 2014. That isn't very encouraging.
  23. jorgenswest
    The signings of Gimenez, Belisle and Breslow can bring some needed veteran influence to the bullpen. I don't know if any of them will bring a positive WAR but they might bring something to the clubhouse and the pitching staff. If either Breslow or Gimenez is willing to stick in the minors to start the season they will be a valuable presence in Rochester.
  24. jorgenswest
    I believe he was a good defensive outfielder in 2012. In his last 4 seasons in CF which includes over 1300 innings he has had negative UZRs and an overall negative DRS. He has 876 career innings in RF with a negative UZR and DRS. He has played only 162 innings in LF with a positive career UZR and negative last year both mean little due to sample. I don't see anything to support your statement about his defense. I would love to have the 2012 Drew Stubbs who was good defensively and brought value with the bat. That guy no longer exists. The Twins need to find better alternatives to bring to camp.
  25. jorgenswest
    I don't think I would use slash stats short of a split that has at least 500 PAs. They wouldn't support an argument about who should be sitting in a small sample.
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