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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I don't see how you would look at either. Neither has any value for projecting future performance without a much larger sample. Once he gets to 150-200 plate appearances, strike out rate, walk rate and ground ball rate start to become meaningful. He is at 27 plate appearances. The data is meaningless. Only the eyes of a skilled observer seeing him in games and on the side can assess his value.
  2. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Helpful. Another honest question. I have not seen any of the potential selections pitch. Shouldn't there be more concern about his first part of his season? At a small sample of 6 weeks, the difference is much more likely to be random variation rather than a change in skill level. Is it possible the last 6 weeks represent an outlier of his skill set? Could selecting him be like buying high in a trade?
  3. jorgenswest
    It seems likely me Strasburg, Price and maybe Cole were much clearer number 1 picks. How does the scouting on Wright compare to those three? Appel, Hochevar and Burlington were also college pitchers picked first overall recently. How does Wright compare to that trio?
  4. jorgenswest
    Are there other teams interested in Dyson? Rangers won't get much in return. I would guess they would move him to a team that isn't going to compete with them for the wild card. NL clubs or a team that is off to a poor start might the direction. The last thing the Rangers need is for Dyson to pitch well for a team competing for the wild card.
  5. jorgenswest
    Grossman appears more athletic this year on the basepaths and in the field. I was very surprised he made the catch on the foul ball today. Is it possible he is a better outfielder than last year?
  6. jorgenswest
    Dozier was 21 and 21. It was the he same pitchers on the road. I don't think last year's data would support an argument that Target Field is the best place for a right handed hitter but over time it has shown to help right handed hitters and be a hitter's park.
  7. jorgenswest
    The raw number isn't helpful but the rate at which more home runs are hit by right handed batters in Twin games at home than Twin games on the road does matter. Target Field has been a good place for right handed hitters to hit home runs and a poor place for left handed hitters.
  8. jorgenswest
    The myth of Target Field established in 2010 lives on. Did you know that in 2016, it led the majors in homers and home run rate from right-handed hitters (152 and 4.2 percent)? It does decrease left handed home runs though.
  9. jorgenswest
    Target Field has been hitter friendly every year since 2012 ranking between 3rd and 13th in park factor for runs.
  10. jorgenswest
    It could be simply random variation that comes with data. No decision or conclusion should be made. Santana has given up 7 home runs at home and 1 on the road. Random.
  11. jorgenswest
    No reason to expect Breslow or rest of the bullpen to have anything after yesterday. Why make the moves if you aren't going to use the fresh arms to protect a 5 run lead?
  12. jorgenswest
    Yes. That statement was unnecessary. The back up catcher does not appear to be very critical. However, this is the only roster spot they chose to overhaul in their first winter. They must have a vision of what they need from a catcher that is different from many on this board. That vision appears fundamental to their beliefs about roster construction. There is a lot of season left. There may be some things they need to see from Garver or Murphy before bringing them up. Gimenez may be a necessary place holder in their minds.
  13. jorgenswest
    I think Falvey and Levine are very confident it is Gimenez. Anyone calling for their removal?
  14. jorgenswest
    Stretching out a pitcher seems to be a big challenge concern for Molitor and Allen. They never figured out how to do it with Trevor May though there were numerous times a starter was needed. The Royals managed to stretch out Danny Duffy last year. His fist start was three innings. He made it into the 5th inning in his second start and into the 6th inning in his third start. It can be done. Duffey's ERA was awful last year and if you trust ERA it would be hard to imagine he would be successful. On the other hand, he had an unsustainably high HR/FB rate combined with a significant drop in DP rate. Did bad luck and awful defense lead to that huge difference between his ERA and xFIP? Many believe that xFIP or SIERA are much more reliable predictors of future ERA. If that's the case, Duffey had the best xFIP and ERA among 2016 Twins starters with both measures better than league average. How much of his success in relief this year is simply the result of better luck and better defense? When will the Twins become so desperate for starting pitching that they will give him a shot?
  15. jorgenswest
    Should the Twins be looking for immediate help in the form of a veteran on a minor league deal with another club? Sometimes these guys have opt outs in their contract. A quick look at strike out rates singles out Justin Masterson. Masterson signed a minor league deal with the Dodgers at the end of spring training. They seem flush with starting pitching at the major league level. His strikeout rate of 24% suggests he is missing AAA bats. He would not cost a significant prospect. Perhaps a flyer on a guy like Masterson might be worth a shot through the All Star break. I wonder if he has an opt out.
  16. jorgenswest
    I thought the article pointed it out. Isn't 40% of their starting staff under 25? Gibson is no lock for that other 20% and it to could be taken by a pitcher with less than 50 major league starts.
  17. jorgenswest
    Falvey and Levine enter this year knowing Gimenez as well or better than any other player. He has played in both their organizations. If it is so clear that Gimenez should not be on the roster, than we should have absolutely no confidence in the front office and advocate for their removal. It is not clear to me. I don't think there is any good way to measure his value and as a mathematician I want to be able to measure everything. Hopefully I will see a time when there is a good way to measure the value of a catcher and use data to support arguments about who is best suited for the position. I don't think we are close today. At the point, I trust that Falvey and Levine were purposeful and intentional as they overhauled the catcher position. I find arguments related to catcher ERA, slash stats in a split hundreds of plate appearances short of reliability and AAA slash stats very unconvincing.
  18. jorgenswest
    I hope that catcher ERA is not anywhere among the data provided to Molitor. The catcher position was the only significant off season roster move of the new leadership. I can't argue against their decision here without also arguing that we need new leadership.
  19. jorgenswest
    As long as the Twins are competitive, I would stick with the veteran catchers. There is no way to measure how much Gimenez helped Mejia get through 5 innings today but I don't think Suzuki would have managed it.
  20. jorgenswest
    By finished at... Is that a season number or was that the ERA following May 23? I assume that it was full season and the ERA after was worse. In either case, it doesn't appear ERA through May 23 was a very good predictor of ERA for the remainder of the season. I wonder if xFIP or SIERA were better predictors.
  21. jorgenswest
    One way or another the Twins can make better use of Duffey. He is 5th in average leverage index among the relievers slightly behind Pressly and well behind Rogers, Belisle and Kintzler. I believe he has more upside than Gibson or Hughes in the rotation. Improving the 4th or 5th starter is far more valuable than the 4th or 5th guy out of the pen. They have two opportunities to increase his impact on the team. Flip him with Belisle or put him in the rotation. Continuing to use him in a lower leverage role from the pen seems like the worst of the three options.
  22. jorgenswest
    It takes so many plate appearances for slash stats to be reliable. Players just don't get enough at bats against lefties to give confidence that the data indicates a skill. In Vargas's case, the opposing pitcher's pitch mix probably matters more than his handedness.
  23. jorgenswest
    It sure sounds as if they were waiting for him to repeat something mechanically with consistency. I believe I last heard Falvey reference it is the Inside Twins show. While no one would know how he was going to fare, they would be able to assess whether he was consistent with the mechanics they were trying to establish. I think that is the "readiness" they were seeking.
  24. jorgenswest
    Changing the catching was the only real move this front office made as they take over. They chose Castro and Giminez knowing they wouldn't hit much. They must believe the value they bring to roster contributes significantly to preventing runs. I find myself agreeing with them though this skill is very complex to measure. Some of the pieces can be measured over the long term. If you don't support Falvey and Levine's only fundamental roster decision, it is hard to imagine that you would support their continued role leading the Twins front office.
  25. jorgenswest
    It isn't very easy to find a near league average starter and they are very expensive. Duffey had the best xFIP and SIERA of any Twins starter last year and was better than league average in those measures. the Twins can continue to run Hughes, Santiago and likely Gibson out there as the season progresses, but Duffey is likely better than any of the three. The starting pitching depth has already been tested with a losing start from Tepesch. How many more will we see while Duffey remains a 6th inning reliever? Other teams find a way to get pitchers stretched out from pen to rotation. Last May 15, Danny Duffy went into the rotation. His first start was 3 innings. He made it into the 5th inning on his second start and he was stretched out for the third start. There is no reason the Twins couldn't follow the same path starting this Monday with Duffey.
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