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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Haley and Buxton could be back Tuesday. More moves coming.
  2. jorgenswest
    As I said, I wonder what the Twins think about Garver's defense. His bat isn't keeping him in AAA.
  3. jorgenswest
    I wonder how the Twins assess Garver's defense. Is he close to Murphy? If a major league catcher were to go down, I think they would call up the better defensive catcher. There is clear separation at the bat. I do wonder if the Twins see significant separation with the glove in Murphy's favor and whether he might be the next catcher in line. That call up will be very telling for how the organization sees Garver's future role.
  4. jorgenswest
    The data used takes a large sample to stabilize when it is a single pitcher. I don't see how to use ERA, slash stats and BABIP in splits with any value. Given their dependence on each other, are they saying anything different? There might be data that is useful. I wonder if first strike % is significantly different? How about 0-2 and 1-2 counts? What is called? What is the result? How might Castro sequence a pitcher differently than Gimenez? What do the varying strike zone maps look like? Do they vary by catcher for the same pitcher? Strike out rate and walk rate are among the first that stabilize. I don't know if in a split we will have enough data at full season. Once we control by a single pitcher the split sample gets pretty small. Those would be the only two that are easily available to us but it might take a few years of data. Any conclusion would be hindsight by that time.
  5. jorgenswest
    It will be interesting to see the return for Garcia. Thorpe's value is difficult to gauge. He hasn't pitched many innings this year and will be limited next year. I think he needs to be put on the 40 man roster this winter. He has thrown just over 40 innings since 2014. When might it be reasonable that he is ready? September 2019? That is if he stays healthy. By then two options will be used. The window where he needs to show success in the majors before he runs out of options could be very narrow. If I am the Braves, I think I would seek a better return with so many days left before the deadline.
  6. jorgenswest
    Makes you wonder who was in the deal. So many guys have medical issues but most are pitchers. Kohl Stewart? Lewis Thorpe?
  7. jorgenswest
    Carl Pavano would not have been near the list in 2009. We like to recall that deal as a success, but there was little competition for his services. He was pitching poorly and hadn't been good and mostly injured since 2004. The Twins were very fortunate. Maybe Anderson saw something tha helped turn Pavano's career around. Who would be on the Pavano list this year?
  8. jorgenswest
    Garcia is healthy. He is pitching better than 2016. The demand for starters is greater. It will cost more to get him now. The Braves took a risk with Colon, Garcia and Dickey to the tune of 32.5 million and 3 marginal prospects. They will get a nice return for Garcia.
  9. jorgenswest
    Whatever the deal, the debate following should be deal or no deal. It shouldn't be the Twins should have forced the Braves to take a package of lesser prospects or take more money and a lesser prospect. Neither the Braves or the Twins are pressed for money. With the demand for starting pitching greater than the supply, the Braves are in a great position of setting the bar high and have no reason to lower that bar with so much time before the deadline.
  10. jorgenswest
    The Braves would be wise to demand a better prospect rather than demand the Twins (or any other team) pay the entirety of his salary. They are doing well at the gate this year. They can't be pressed against their budget. Since they can pay, they can seek the single best prospect offered. That is so much better for them than to take a package or a lesser prospect and dollars. If a team feels stretched at the prospect they can the offer to send back a lesser prospect or cash rather than lower the bar on the return. They have a lot of time between now and the deadline. Any deal they take now would have to exceed their expectations. Over the long term, the Twins will likely lose on this deal. It is part of doing business as a contender at the trade deadline. It is great to be a contender though. Whether it is Thorpe or Blankenhorn or Stewart or Garvin, it is going to hurt. The gamble is that the Twins go 7-6 as opposed to 5-8 in the 13 Garcia starts. Those two wins can offset that hurt.
  11. jorgenswest
    Is it possible that he was given a two start leash by the front office? It might be show something in two starts or be released or retire.
  12. jorgenswest
    Is Rosario hurt also? If not, can we blame the manager for putting Grossman in LF so Polanco can DH?
  13. jorgenswest
    On Santana v Polanco In the minors i would rather have the higher ISO bat. Good walk rates and low ISO doesn't translate to the majors well. Pitchers pound the strike zone and walk rates drop. On option... Yes. The Twins lost a year when they moved him from Dominican League to US in same summer. They lost the opportunity for a 4th option. However, he didn't lose any years of development due to injury. He entered this year with a very reasonable amount of minor league at bats including those in AA and AAA. He is 24. It is time for him to struggle in the majors and prove with some time he belongs (or not).
  14. jorgenswest
    Danny Santana has an AA OPS of 719. Jorge Polanco also 719. Santana AAA - 807. Polanco - 762 Majors: Santana 681. Polanco 678 Both came with questions about their ability to stay at shortstop. Both made good first major league impressions. I think Polanco is better than Santana but that may be more hope than substance.
  15. jorgenswest
    The comps are close but they would need to do better than Thorpe to comp Luzardo. Thorpe's injury history is compounded by the need to make a 40 man roster decision. The Nats have a lot of time to work with Luzardo.
  16. jorgenswest
    Yes. No.
  17. jorgenswest
    They made a few minor deals that didn't work out as well as Cabrera. They chose not to deal any significant young prospects, though in hindsight we would be able to pick which prospects they should have dealt. Havens might have been their best prospect at the time if not Gagne. They have a similar choice this year.
  18. jorgenswest
    The only significant asset the Twins could have moved was Perkins.
  19. jorgenswest
    It is hard to imagine Santana ever having more value than he will at this deadline.
  20. jorgenswest
    They remained competitive to the end without making a deal. Must have been tempting to trade off minor league prospects to bring in a closer. Had they traded Gagne for a reliever, they may have made it to the playoffs.
  21. jorgenswest
    Either because he is not on the market or because the Twins can't match the market, Archer should not be considered as a trade target.
  22. jorgenswest
    The starting pitcher bar has been set very high. The Cubs must have contacted the Rays trying to get Archer with a similar package. They Rays must want more. They must have contacted the A's to try to get Gray without giving up Jimenez. Do the A's even take the Twins phone call if the starting point is Gordon? I am sure the Rays don't. If this sets the market for starting pitchers, I hope the Twins are listening on Santana and cautious about trying to acquire a starter.
  23. jorgenswest
    What would it have taken from the Twins system to beat that deal?
  24. jorgenswest
    This team has many similarities to the 1984 Twins. The age of the key players on the roster was centered 23-25. They had an unexpected all star break record of 43-41. Likely very frustrating to fans, they did not make any significant trades to improve the roster. They acquired aging SS Chris Speier for a 27 year old AAA pitcher Jay Pettibone to try to fix SS. They acquired struggling DH Pat Putnam for marginal A-Ball prospect Carson Carroll to try to get some pop at a DH. Neither fix helped. They team completed well into September but did not make playoffs. It had to be tempting that year to trade off two young players in Puckett and Gaetti that flashed some offense but whose bats were generally empty. It had to be tempting to trade away some rising minor leaguers like Gagne, Havens, Lombardozzi, Portugal and Anderson. They certainly could have packaged 3 or 4 of those players to get real help. They chose not to make moves with that young roster. They kept Puckett and Gaetti in spite of little pop in their bats that year. They kept their 22 shortstop prospect in Gagne. In hindsight, no moves seems to have been the best course of action. Is it possible that the best course this year is to retain all of the young core of players?
  25. jorgenswest
    No way the Angels would trade Meyer back for Busenitz. No one would. Terrible deal by the Twins.
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