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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    How well have Dozier's comps aged? Seems like he really needs to stay at 2B to keep value. I think we could have looked at a Mauer when he was Dozier's age and felt confident that his bat would be a plus at 1B if he needed to move off catcher. The last thing they need is another huge contract at 1B. That position is too easy to fill inexpensively. Carter and Napoli will be very cheap this year.
  2. jorgenswest
    Kubel and Bartlett were more promising signings. Stubbs no longer hits or fields well. He hasn't had a positive UZR in CF since 2012. He has one season with an RC+ over 100 since 2010 that was fueled by a BABIP over .400. Santana is a much more useful bench piece given his ability to run and play more positions. I argued at the time Kubel and Bartlett were signed that it does matter. The Twins are only going to bring so many guys to camp. They will have a finite number of at bats to give in spring training. While Kubel and Bartlett were in camp the Twins missed an opportunity at JD Martinez. The likelihood that Stubbs will turn into the 2010 version of himself is so remote that it can't possibly be worth an invite to spring training. Maybe he won't get that invite.
  3. jorgenswest
    Izturis had 7 seasons as the primary SS with more than 100 starts in seasons between ages 22 and 30. The two years he fell short of 100 he bounced between two teams. He never really was a utilityman. His glove was good enough to be a starting SS for most seasons through his prime. If Adrianza's glove is the level of Izturis, he might be the Twins best option at SS. If not, he is AAA depth.
  4. jorgenswest
    Light or Belisle? I would take a Belisle. His veteran presence should be valuable. Light has limited upside. Park or Adrianza? Park has the upside, but if they can pass Adrianza through waivers he adds an excellent glove at SS in AAA. Adrianza is not a good fit in a utility role. His value is all in his glove at SS. He either hits enough to start at SS or bounces around. My guess is They DFA him when they sign a veteran hoping he passes through to AAA. They might already have that deal with a veteran and needed to time his signing first. It could be a veteran bat to go with Belisle with the additional depth of Adrianza in AAA at the possible cost of Park and Light.
  5. jorgenswest
    I am not talking about an emergency catcher though Gimenez did play some 1B and 3B last year. He also has played OF. That isn't my vision of an emergency catcher but rather and emergency corner player. Our new GM came from an organization that valued catching enough to put 3 catchers on the ALDS roster. Is it possible that he would do the same with the Twins roster this year? Is there some value a veteran catcher like Gimenez brings on the bench and in the bullpen that exceeds the value of a guy like Santana, a bench bat or a 13th pitcher?
  6. jorgenswest
    The leverage index entering the game was virtually the same as Belisle (.80 vs .83) in spite of the fact that there were fewer high leverage opportunities in Minnesota. Belisle may not be an upgrade. Certainly not enough of an upgrade to drop Park. Maybe Belisle brings something to the clubhouse that goes unmeasured.
  7. jorgenswest
    Any chance the Twins carry 3 catchers? The Indians made news carrying 3 catchers on the roster in the ALDS (Perez, Gomes, Gimenez). Falvey and Levine know Gimenez well. I would not be surprised if he were the number 2 or 3 catcher on the roster. I have no way to value his presence on the bench but he must bring something unmeasured to the game that keeps him employed. If he is on the roster as the 25th man, I will trust that Falvey's sees value that is not measured well by the metrics we have available.
  8. jorgenswest
    I wonder if having a K% second on the team (behind) May and an xFIP of 3.93 (8% better than league) could contribute to the reason. Belisle xFIP was .06 better but that was in an NL park. When adjusted for league, Tonkin had an xFIP- of 92 and Belisle 94. ERA and FIP for a reliever have little meaning. Both take too many innings to be meaningful. ERA because of all of the other factors that contribute and FIP because it uses HR rate which is unreliable in a reliever size sample.
  9. jorgenswest
    Would you trade Park for Belisle? You get one year of a veteran reliever that has been successful in the NL when healthy in low leverage situations. He is 36 and had two stints on the disabled list in 2016. He missed more time in 2015. You lose a batter with the upside of very good power but the likelihood of not making enough contact. If I am a team trying to squeeze out an extra win in 2017 towards 90 wins, I want the reliever. If I am building towards 2018 and 2019, I want the hitter. The Twins may keep both. It is critical that our management read the market correctly and no one will pay Park's remaining contract to have a shot at his ceiling.
  10. jorgenswest
    A rebuilding team needs to develop pitchers, Groundball pitchers Duffey and Gibson need a solid shortstop. Last year's trio of Nunez, Polanco and Escobar playing injured was disastrous for them. Has there ever been a discrepancy between ERA and xFIP than Duffey's numbers last year? If the Twins want a guy to grow into a position on a corner, I concur. I can't join your argument for a shortstop.
  11. jorgenswest
    Belisle hasn't been able to stay healthy the last two years pitching about a season worth of innings in the last two. I wonder if he had other major league contract offers. He went to the Nationals on a minor contract last year. I don't see a pitcher the Twins should be counting on in high leverage situations. On the other hand, he could be a good veteran for the young relievers to learn from in the pen. It sounded like Falvey and Levine were looking for that quality from a veteran. Hopefully he stays healthy and post another ERA significantly lower than his peripherals while being a leader in the pen.
  12. jorgenswest
    They could lose the guy they drop off the 40. It is possible that the guy they drop has a better career moving forward than one year of Matt Belisle. If they lose a player and Belisle pitches at a mediocre level, did they make a mistake? Edit: If they drop Tonkin, he had essentially the same xFIP in the context of the American League and essentially the same Steamer projection (also in the AL context).
  13. jorgenswest
    Any similarities to Tim Stauffer?
  14. jorgenswest
    OK. You have drawn me in. Slash stats need about a full season of data to become meaningful. Over his career he is a much better hitter against left handed pitching. That he wasn't last year in 115 PAs doesn't have meaning. I agree that the Twins should not sign Wieters. There must be a better way to support that statement. If what mattered was his ability to hit lefties over righties. His career number support that skill.
  15. jorgenswest
    I wonder if the Card's defense as a result of playing guys out of position contributed to the decline in the starting pitchers.
  16. jorgenswest
    The manager's job is to win. This is not a developmental league. I am sure he played the guy at SS that he felt gave him the best chance to win.
  17. jorgenswest
    Erik Gonzalez from the Indians organization has been playing SS. He is 2 years older than Polanco and projects as a super utility player for the Indians with a good arm and questionable OBP skills. I don't see how he is going to get middle infield time in Cleveland. I wonder if he would be the starting SS for the Twins. He probably another variation on Eduardo Escobar.
  18. jorgenswest
    Duffey had a few things working against him last year. He had a very high HR/FB ratio of 19.5% vs 7.8% in 2015. Is that bad luck or a skill? While his groundball rate stayed high, he had a significant drop in double play rate. Could the very poor play from SS last year with Nunez and Polanco getting many innings and Escobar not healthy contributed to his downturn? It might have had an impact on our other groundball pitcher in Gibson. It isn't very often you see an ERA of 6.43 and an xFIP of 3.89. That difference has to be close to historic. Can the difference be attributed to historically bad luck and historically bad defense or does the ERA better represent Duffey's skill? The defense on the left side does not look improved this year. Perhaps the Twins are wise to go with a fly ball pitcher in May rather than pitchers who throw ground balls like Duffey and Gibson. Maybe they can find a team that values defense after the Twins release them.
  19. jorgenswest
    I am often skeptical of the block argument thinking that performance can trump any block. This is one case where the signings of free agents did block a young player and alter the trajectory of his career. Of the 8 seasons we have received from Hughes, Santana and Nolasco we did get two solid full seasons in Hughes first and Santana's second. Were those two solid seasons, both in losing years, worth it?
  20. jorgenswest
    It will be interesting to see the Twins priorities on the bench. The Indians carried three catchers last year in the ALDS. The Twins signed their third catcher Gimenez this off season. The bench could be two catchers, a middle infielder and an outfielder.
  21. jorgenswest
    A team can with with a Sano at 3B. His strong arm allows him to play deeper increasing his range. He will make errors on routine plays but those will lessen as he plays more. It had been since 2013 since he played 3B consistently over a full season. He will be below average but his defense will be adequate on a corner given his bat.
  22. jorgenswest
    Twins who have received the same recognition as best defensive infielder from 2006-2014. All were shortstops at the time. Trevor Plouffe, Alexi Casilla, Deibinson Romero, Matt Tolbert, Jorge Polanco, Brian Dozier, Levi Michael, Danny Santana I think it is more telling that Dozier, Michael and Santana were seen as better defensive infielders at shortstop over Polanco 2012-2014. Edit: Romero was a 3B when recognized
  23. jorgenswest
    I would sign any but Drew to a one year deal. I don't think Drew can play middle infield any longer and he has little value to this team as a bench bat occasional 3B. The others can all be flipped by mid season or released if they can't play anymore.
  24. jorgenswest
    If true and they passed on the deal Dave reported, the Twins front office is the laughing stock of baseball.
  25. jorgenswest
    They can go ahead and play Polanco at SS but they shouldn't do so thinking he will turn a corner at the position. That would be foolish. They have had him in the organization since he was 16. They have seen him at the position. A major league ground ball or throw from the hole or feed for a double play isn't that different from those in the minors. It would be like thinking that Pinto was going to become a good catcher or Plouffe a good SS in the majors after seeing them struggle for years in the minors. Polanco needs to have his bat in the line up regularly. He needs major league at bats. Right now it looks like the best option is to acknowledge that his play will cost them runs defensively and play him at SS until Dozier is moved. Meanwhile they can balance it with improved defense at catcher and the outfield. Last year they opened with Arcia and Sano on the corners and Suzuki at catcher. That was a disaster.
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