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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Catcher is a defense first position and in the eyes of some organizations the most critical position on defense. There is no data we can look at and have a reasonable picture of defensive skill of a catcher in the minors. Garver's bat is of limited value at catcher if he is not seen as an asset defensively. The new front office and emphasis on analytics places great importance on not only the catcher's skill but also preparation. I would assume they are developing those skills and ability to prepare in Murphy and Garver. I assume the better defender will emerge when a catcher is needed.
  2. jorgenswest
    Is the best no power OF example Ben Revere? Can Granite match his speed and defense? If triples are a measure, Granite isn't in Gordon's class when comparing minor league numbers. The Twins need to be patient with Wade and keep developing him as a hitter. He needs to be more aggressive on pitches he can drive at the risk of taking fewer walks. Suggesting he needs more time to develop does not equate to a lost cause. Seeing Rosario as a better investment in at bats right now as compared to Granite does not equate Granite to a lost cause. Comparing him to Mastroianni does not either. Can a better match be found?
  3. jorgenswest
    Granite's career OBP/SLG in the minors closely matches Darin Mastroianni with a .01 difference in OBP and .08 difference in SLG. They match similarly in the scouting reports of their defense. They both had outstanding age 24 seasons though Matroianni's was at AA and a Granite is in the midst. Mastroianni's ability to get on base did not translate to the majors leagues. Major league pitchers have no trouble attacking hitters that aren't a threat to go deep. The same might be said about LaMonte Wade. He really needs to work on driving the ball in AA this year before he is advanced. I don't see either as a threat to Rosario or an option to start without developing some power. Wade has a chance but he has work to do.
  4. jorgenswest
    A few notes on Rosario and 1000 plate appearances. 1) He hasn't been good. 2) Comparisons like this are not parallel. I don't think Rosario is being compared to the first 1000 plate appearances of others. He is being compared to their record at the end of their career. Joe Rudi, for example, was not very good in his first 1000 plate appearances and should have been below Rosario. 3) Frank Delahanty and George Barclay have lower career OBPs. They played over 100 years ago though. Six other players are under .300. Four of 6 played this year. Their careers aren't finished yet. My apologies if the search was comparing all players in their first 1000 plate appearances. That would be a more interesting comparison. I wonder how many other Joe Rudi's would be in the group to offer some hope in Rosario.
  5. jorgenswest
    WAR tells the story of the previous season or in this case the last few months. It is useful in its ability to add to the story in any sample. It is not a predictive measure. If it tells the story of someone being a role player last year, it does not mean that we should expect the player to be a role player this year. It adds to the story of Santana's first few months but does not help project the next few months. As for FIP, it uses actual stats. Strikeouts, walks and home runs who some consider the three true outcomes. It is not a good ERA estimator because home run rate takes a large sample to stabilize. It does give us a picture about how a pitcher performed relative to the three elements for which they have greatest control.
  6. jorgenswest
    I would be concerned about Wade's ability to hit with hard contact as shown by his ISO. As compared to Grossman's time in AA it is much lower. The Twins have much better data to look at for barrels and hard contact. Maybe most of his hard contact is directly at fielders and his low ISO is a poor indicator. He won't walk in the majors if he doesn't hit the ball with some authority. Major league pitchers will pitch to his weaker contact and his walk rate will drop considerably. While he is in AA, he needs to be more aggressive attacking pitches that he can drive. Without recognition of pitches that he can drive, it will be hard to be successful in the majors.
  7. jorgenswest
    Gordon is having a great year but Fort Myers and the FSL really suppress power and Chattanooga is friendly to hitters. By percentile of all parks, Fort Myers was in the 13th percentile and Chattanooga 66th according to home runs. The data was compiled a few years ago. http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/minor-league-ballpark-effects-2014/#sdbcZTPwbbWY6Tzq.97
  8. jorgenswest
    Isn't the difference between FIP and xFIP simply the calculation of home runs given up by pitcher? The other components are strike outs and walks. Both remove the defense with the exception of a catcher impacting strike outs and walks. FIP uses actual home runs and xFIP use fly ball rate to predict the number of home runs a pitcher should have given up. Since home run rate needs a large sample to stabilize and fly ball rate does not, xFIP is more reliable in smaller samples and has shown to be a better ERA estimators than FIP. As for WAR, I think both do the same job of filtering out the defense using the three true outcomes. Using FIP for a pitcher rather than xFIP is consistent with using actual home runs on the batter side instead of trying to do something predictive with fly ball rate on the batter side. With WAR they aren't trying to predict future value so I think it makes more sense to use actual home runs.
  9. jorgenswest
    I started the Escobar discussion. It was about his solid 2014 and 2015 season suggesting that he can continue to be solid in 2017. I am sure there are those that point to his current hot bat, but a hot bat short of the support of a long term context has no meaning. I also don't believe a "hot bat" is a thing. It is simply random variation due to small sample. It is just as likely to end today as not. They should absolutely not call up Granite based on recent performance.
  10. jorgenswest
    Everyone would want to add Gray to the rotation. The question is whether they are willing to pay the price. I think it is going to cost some team a very good starting pitching prospect and a very good up the middle prospect. If there is enough competition an upside A-Ball player could be added. It isn't a matter of not wanting Gray. It's a matter of not wanting to pay the price. I don't want to pay the price. I am not going to join those that would say if... and then come up with a very favorable deal. That's playing both sides of the debate. It is going to take a couple top 100 guys and the Twins don't have many of those. It's going to hurt.
  11. jorgenswest
    That's not good and I think he is third worst. Still not good. It would be more significant if he said it was the worst OBP for any player since 1900 in their first 1000 plate appearances. Joe Rudi probably had a lower OBP in his first 1000. His next 1000 were much better.
  12. jorgenswest
    I would think it would take two key top young players. Someone will offer a combination like... Up the middle player in Gordon or Polanco. Starting pitcher in Gonsalves or Romero. Additionally, they might need to add a player or 2 in A ball to beat the other offers. Acquiring a mid rotation pitcher is going to hurt.
  13. jorgenswest
    Someone will have to move off the 40. Heston was moved off for Wilk. Can Wilk be moved off for Busenitz game 2? If not, it could be Hughes to the 60.
  14. jorgenswest
    Sounds like Wilk, Busenitz and Wimmers arriving. Will it be Wilk on the 25 for game 1(sending down Turley), Wimmers as the 26th man and Busenitz not called up until game 2 (sending down Wilk)? Can they make the move like this between games? Can they do it with the 40 also? Wilk being removed from the 25 and 40 following game 1 so they can add Busenitz?
  15. jorgenswest
    Let's hope their decision pays off. To me it pays off if they get a split and they have Santana and Berrios leading the next series. I would rather put it out there now rather than ranting in the hindsight of a losing series and a severely overworked bullpen.
  16. jorgenswest
    I would agree, but the Twins have skipped starts earlier this year with off days moving Santana up. This would have been consistent with their earlier decisions. I wonder why they made that decision earlier in the season and not now. If they hadn't made those decisions earlier, I am not sure I would have commented now.
  17. jorgenswest
    Not that tough. Santana and Berrios each got an extra day rest last weekend before the San Francisco series. They could have started Gibson Saturday with Santana and Berrios starting on regular rest the previous Thursday and Friday. If Molitor had made that decision, Berrios and Santana would have combined for 3 of the 7 Indian games instead of 1 of 7. Gibson would miss the Indians completely instead of getting two starts. If they had made that decision, Santana would be starting Sunday following the double header. With Wilk and Mejia starting the double header, the Twins could easily head into Sunday with no bullpen. They could easily head into Sunday down 0-3 in the series. Who do you want starting that Sunday game? The Twins chose Gibson. This isn't hindsight. They knew about the double header. They knew the Indians were a key rival. I hope it works out. They are really counting on Gibson.
  18. jorgenswest
    I only see the long view and haven't participated in the trade or release discussion. His numbers in 2014, 2015 and this year are more than adequate to put him in the middle of the group of starting shortstops in the major leagues. Slightly above league average bat and average defense at SS hasn't been easy to find. The question he needed to answer this year was whether last year was the aberration due to injury or was it 2014 and 2015. Seems like 2016 might have been the outlier. The 2014-2015 Escobar is starting SS material.
  19. jorgenswest
    Do you think the Twins undervalue him? Other teams? Fans? I hope the Twins don't pay any attention to prospect lists or talk. I doubt prospect status written by folks outside baseball would have any impact in trading him to another team. Escobar sets his value with his performance.
  20. jorgenswest
    The Twins have set up their rotation to send out Turley, Wilk, Mejia and Gibson against their biggest challenger in the central. They risk having four consecutive blow up from the starters. With those blow outs, they risk overworking their pen. Looking forward, they play another series against the Indians next weekend. I don't think Berrios will pitch in it either and Santana should get the Sunday game. If they can get through those seven games 3-4, I would be relieved. Given the pitchers, I would put the over under at 2.5 wins for those 7 games. I would also set the over/under on the number of reliever roster moves over the next 3 series at 2.5 moves. A few weeks ago, the Twins had some days off to play with and align the starters. They chose not to. It could be something they regret.
  21. jorgenswest
    I don't think there is anything in the data that suggests that Polanco will be the better fielder or hitter the remainder of the season or next year. Escobar this year is matching what we saw in 2014 and 2015. A little above league average with the bat and average play at SS. Last year might be the outlier due to his injury. With Polanco, looking at data only is difficult. Over 2016-2017 his defense numbers don't look good but the sample even with both years combined is small. By eye, he seems improved with the glove. His bat does not have much pop this year as shown by his ISO and exit velocities compared to Escobar. If I were Molitor, I might play match ups. No way to do that looking at data we have in splits. Not near the sample necessary. He would need to go by what his staff sees or data they might have not publicly available. Adrianza probably has the best glove. Escobar might have the better bat. Polanco the most upside.
  22. jorgenswest
    Is Escobar worthy of more starts at SS? With offense above league average thus far and defense for his career right at league average (by UZR), does he give the Twins a better chance to win? We have seen solid offense and league average defense from him before. There is a reason to believe he can keep it going.
  23. jorgenswest
    Over his last 8 starts, he has performed close to his projections coming into the season. He has thrown 54 innings with a ERA of 4.00. Those almost 7 innings a game at 4.00 are pretty useful to a team. I think it is reasonably close to what the Twins (or any team considering a trade) should expect for the remainder of the season.
  24. jorgenswest
    Rooker might go CR and start next year in high A moving to AA in June. I am not going to be concerned if he starts in CR this year. I will be concerned if he doesn't play well enough to be in AA by the second half of 2018. His performance is more important than where he plays in July and August this year.
  25. jorgenswest
    Guys like Hicks, Nunez and Grossman needed a lot of at bats before they became solid players. It is hard for teams to wait out those 1000-1500 plate appearances or have patience to age 27. Even harder for fans.
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