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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Someone will trade an elite prospect. The Rays can afford to be patient and wait to the deadline as the White Sox did with Quintana. If the Twins are interested and want to approach the Rays they had better do so with every minor leaguer on the table. It is very reasonable to take the position that the Twins should not part with Lewis and one of their top pitchers for Archer. The truth is Lewis is a long way away. Does he grow into a corner OF or stick at SS? Is his career path heading towards Correa or Kepler?
  2. jorgenswest
    Darvish is first choice but ultimately it may be easier to persuade the Rays to trade Archer than persuade Darvish to sign with the Twins.
  3. jorgenswest
    I can’t see leaving Lewis out of the deal and still coming up with the best offer. It is going to hurt to get a pitcher. At one point Sano might have helped but the allegations against him really hurt his value. Guys like Rosario and Kepler just won’t help get a good pitcher. Corner outfielders unless they are elite won’t have enough value.
  4. jorgenswest
    Chris Archer and Jose Quintana are good comps. They are about the same age. They have a similar amount of team control. They have nearly the same fWAR over past three seasons. They both had relatively poorer 2017 campaigns to their previous two seasons. The Rays should be seeking a deal similar to that of Quintana or be patient. Quintana’s return was Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease, Bryant Flete and Matt Rose. The Twins can’t match a prospect like Jimenez so they will need to give up their best and then do better with one of the other pieces. Crease has been in the top 100 and a Sickels B+ last season. Flete and Rose are C prospects. It is going to hurt and will gut the system but it must start by giving the Rays the choice of Lewis/Gordon and choice of Gonsalves/Romero plus another B prospect. Even with Tommy John if Alex Reyes is in the conversation I don’t think the Twins can top the Cardinals in this deal.
  5. jorgenswest
    It does not factor in a batter’s speed as a skill. xwOBA is concerned only with what happens just after the ball leaves the bat, and what the hitter does once he leaves the box doesn’t change it all. Of course, a speedy batter is much more likely to turn a gapper into a double or a triple than a slow batter is. Any difference as a result of speed should not change. Another factor that might account for differences in xwOBA and wOBA is ballpark factors. xwOBA doesn’t care about the ballpark. Since the Twins are playing in Target Field any difference due to park should not change. The last of course is luck. This is what xwOBA hopes to measure. Which batters hit the ball better than their numbers indicate? They might expect that their numbers did not match their ability and can expect that they would this year. I also think a fourth factor might be a hitter’s spray chart. How easy is it to shift the defense in areas where the player consistently hits the ball hard? What does it mean for those Twins? Is Buxton difference mostly due to good luck or his baserunning skill? How about Mauer? How much is bad luck and how much is slow baserunning? How about Mauer vs. Rosario? Rosario’s line drives are spread from foul line to foul line. Most of Joe’s are left field to center field. Which player is easier to shift against? Wouldn’t that effect this number? It would be awesome to have a measure bad and good luck to help determine a player’s skill level? Baserunning is a skill. The ability to hit the ball to all fields is a skill. I don’t think this number factors those skills out.
  6. jorgenswest
    Looks a lot better with Darvish. They will likely need 7 starters at some point in the first two months. Using Duffey’s option to start him in AAA would offer a lot more hope for depth than the options we saw early last year.
  7. jorgenswest
    They have several with options. The crowd is only a problem if they don’t have pitchers with option flexibility. They won’t have 8. They will have depth. Kinley can’t be optioned. He is going to have to win a higher leverage spot so that the low leveraged can be optioned as needed.
  8. jorgenswest
    Sigh. We are already slamming the character of a player before he has put on a Twins uniform. Any man who has pitched successfully into their 40s has done so by being extremely dedicated to their craft continually learning and working hard. There are accounts from the DBacks and others that he has helped the younger pitchers on the team because that is how he was treated when he arrived. That points to a good teammate. It is the Twins management that negotiated this deal and made commitments to Rodney. If they told him he would be used as a closer that is on them. Let’s question the wisdom of the front office. Rodney did not force them into the commitment.
  9. jorgenswest
    Musgrove and Moran had appearances on a top 100 list. The K numbers of Féliz are hard to match but he is a 25 year old with a very good arm and experience in the majors. Perhaps Pressly, May or Duffey is a match. Mejia might match Musgrove Moran is a major league ready 3B coming off a strong season. Granite and Garver never had his status as a prospect but both are major league ready coming off strong seasons. Moran is just better though. He was ranked a B prospect by Sickels and the Twins has two of those in Romero and Javier. Martin was graded a B- prospect and looks to be a 4th OF. Baddoo was ranked similarly as a B-. I suppose Mejia, Pressly, Javier and Granite might be similar in 3 players ready to be major leaguers but I think the Pirates would still take the Astros deal because Moran is the best prospect that is major league ready player of the 8 and Granite has a pretty low ceiling. The Twins would have to upgrade on Mejia or Granite to win the deal.
  10. jorgenswest
    Unless Kinley is more reliable than Pressly there is no way to justify the roster spot. He doesn’t help as the low leverage reliever. He can’t be optioned and that flexibility is valuable to a team that should be competitive.
  11. jorgenswest
    When all are healthy... Rodney, Reed, Duke, Hildenberger, Rogers, Pressly might be the first 6. Busenitz is a good fit for the seventh spot. He has options. Instead of going to 13 pitchers when the pen is exhausted they can send out Busenitz and call up Curtiss or maybe Chargois.
  12. jorgenswest
    I would guess that the order would have been out on Darvish sign Reed rather than we just signed Reed now we don’t have money for Darvish. The additions of Reed, Rodney and Duke add nicely to the bullpen at minimal commitment.
  13. jorgenswest
    The Twins committed 174 million to Nolasco, Santana and Hughes over 14 years. The return thus far has been 3 of 11 season of league average or better starting pitching for the 134 million they have spent thus far. A good season for a starting pitcher has cost them almost 45 million a season. The 40 million looks like a bargain.
  14. jorgenswest
    What recent comps are there for younger players signing away their arbitration and maybe a few free agency year away? The Altuve deal was 2013. Singleton 2014. Astros haven’t been able to make similar deals with Springer or Correa. I would think Buxton would need to blown away by a deal to sign. In any case, the Twins can afford to pay for play in arbitration. They can’t afford to commit significant money towards poor performance.
  15. jorgenswest
    From 2013-2016 Tillman was very valuable. He averaged 32 starts a year with a solid 4 year ERA in an AL hitter’s park. I would imagine if he hit free agency a year ago he would be seeking 20 million a year for 4-5 years. Given his age, he would have ranked above Lynn and Cobb. One shoulder injury later and he is looking for a make good one year deal. Someone will give him a shot. I hope it works out for him. His poorly timed injury cost him tens of millions. From the Twins perspective an incentive laden one year deal would make sense whether or not the sign Darvish. If I were his agent I would advise he go to a team like the Padres, White Sox or Royals who might be more patient early in the season. They would then hope for a good first half to flip him at the deadline.
  16. jorgenswest
    I am wondering if the big 4 includes Lynn and Cobb who I would think are similar to Nolasco or Santana as they were signed if Nolasco and Santana also had the injury history. They come with a greater risk of injury over 4 years. It seems as if everyone is waiting so I think it is more like the players waiting. Apparently the Cubs offered 42 over 3 to Cobb and he is waiting for better. I would offer either 60 over 4 as long as year 4 has an option that vests at 200 innings pitched in year 3 and a buy out for that 4th year at 5 million. Anything more would be a mistake for a pitcher that projects as a back end postseason starter year 1 and declines from there. Neither will move the needle much for a team making an impact in the postseason.
  17. jorgenswest
    I don’t think league average ages 25-28 projects to league average ages 30-32.
  18. jorgenswest
    ZiPS seems to get more notice but hasn’t done as well as Steamer or Marcel recently. Here is a comparison of 2016. https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2017/1/8/14189138/pecota-zips-steamer-marcel-projection-systems-graded I haven’t seen the 2017, but ZiPS did not do as well as Steamer or Marcel in 2015 or 2016. Looking at the summary, ZiPS may have been less reliable on the pitching side. I would guess teams have far better systems given their access to more detailed data. I sure hope the Twins project well in their search for a free agent starter.
  19. jorgenswest
    I still have hopes for Duffey as a starter. I would send him to AAA to begin the season in the rotation and sign a guy like Belisle to take his spot in the pen. I think I would start May in AAA also until he is ready. Teams generally need 7 starters in the first two months. Duffey and May might fit that need well allowing Gonsalves, Romero and Littell a half season of AAA experience. Jorge, Stewart or Ens can move into the AAA rotation as needed. The Twins also need someone with options they can send out to bring up a fresh arm when the bullpen gets spent. They can’t do that with Kinley without a phantom injury. A rule 5 player can really make difficult in season roster moves and drive sooner the need for 13 pitchers. Busenitz might be in that shuttle role pulling up Moya, Curtiss or Chargois.
  20. jorgenswest
    The Twins are getting fantastic value out of Escobar. He was such a great return for a few months of Liriano. I wouldn’t offer a significant extension though. I would seek the next player to fill that role. It could be Adrianza.
  21. jorgenswest
    Interesting take on Darvish and the Twins at Beyond the Box Score https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2018/1/3/16843352/twins-offseason-free-agency-signings-hot-stove-rumors-yu-darvish-lorenzo-cain-playoffs-wild-card You might note that the author also blogs regularly at Let’s Go Tribe.
  22. jorgenswest
    Jamie-The walk and strike out rates as well as the O-Swing likely indicate growth in Rosario’s skill level. I appreciated that you stayed with numbers where the sample likely shows a change. Mike- I worry about defensive metrics also. However, they have the stability of slash stats at a season level and can vary significantly from one season to the next. It is just as likely the change in defensive metric is random variation due to sample as regression. Watching him, I am left with the impression that he makes the mistakes of throwing to the wrong base sometimes trying to do too much than he can do and sometimes it seems to be lack of focus. I don’t have data to back it up though. There must be some detailed Statcast data that can better answer that question.
  23. jorgenswest
    Thanks. Encouraging article. I would bet on Kepler will take a step forward. His BABIP will be better. He will improve against lefties though increased opportunities will be a drag on his overall numbers. I think we will see more power against right handed pitching.
  24. jorgenswest
    This is so tiresome. You ask questions as if you aren’t reading what is written. In short for next year... Go big for an ace through free agency or trade. If that doesn’t happen they go with what they have - filling with players on one year deals. Please have the last word. Just don’t leave the same question to answer. We can disagree.
  25. jorgenswest
    They should invest everything in developing their own pitching. They should overhaul the pitching development throughout the system. They should invest in coaching to do so. They should invest in analytics to develop those skills. The old front office bought 80% of their rotation in 2015. When all were healthy or not on suspension they needed to move Trevor May to the bullpen. He had back trouble which he attributed to relieving. I wonder if they had a commitment to development over the long term rather than trying to patch the short term if Trevor May would be a starter they could count on for 2018. I do not want them to make long commitments to pitchers unless that pitcher projects to be above league average. That will give them space to still be valuable as they decline. They did not get enough good years from the signings of Nolasco, Santana and Hughes. I don’t want to continue that cycle.
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