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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    My preference in the middle infield is one year guys. I expect Gordon to rebound and reach the majors this year. I expect Lewis in May 2020. I don’t want to be committed to any of the free agent middle infielders beyond this year.
  2. jorgenswest
    The Twins need 5 good reliable options in the pen. I would only count on May and Rogers in my top 5 arms. Hildenberger should be AAA depth and options shuttle. Reed needs to show something in spring or be released. They shouldn’t count on either. They need to sign 3 relievers.
  3. jorgenswest
    I don’t think he was ever a poor defensive catcher. He showed a good bat with the Angels but he also had solid veteran catchers blocking him in Brian Downing, Ed Ott, Bob Boone and Tony Pena. The Angels also called him up at 19 so they had to make a decision on him and moved him off catcher. He was still blocked when traded to the Pirates by Pena and Junior Ortiz. That his defense at a young age didn’t compare to those veterans shouldn’t have given him the label of poor defensive catcher. He also was brought up to the majors so early he never really had time to develop before teams needed to make 25 and 40 man roster decisions on him. After that he was no longer seen as a catcher until the Twins signed him and gave him the opportunity If Astudillo’s defense is similar to Harper’s defense he should be the front runner for starting catcher next year. Harper was able to answer the question about his defense. I hope Astudillo can also.
  4. jorgenswest
    There isn’t anywhere near a plethora of good defensive catchers. If there were, guys like Wilson and Butera would have very short major league careers around their peak and then be replaced by the next very good defensive catcher around age 27. The reason those guys can stick around until age 35 is because it is really hard to find a good defensive catcher and nowhere near a plethora.
  5. jorgenswest
    Carson Cistulli compared Thorpe to Jalen Beeks. Both left handed with similar polish and command. Both with questionable fastball. The good news to me is Beeks returned Eovaldi in trade so there is solid value there. For the most part, the Rays used Beeks as the guy who pitches after the opener. The Twins need left handed pitching whether he lands at the back of the rotation or the bullpen. They need guys that they can flip for pitching help when they are contending for the playoffs next July. It is encouraging to know that the Twins have prospects of this value outside their top 10.
  6. jorgenswest
    My interest is finding a way to have a 12 man staff for the majority of the season. I don’t think that is possible with the stacking strategy. I wonder about the opener. I would like to look at the Rays opener starts and see how many pitchers were typically needed in those games and then compare that to the number of pitchers needed in starts by Twin fifth starters. Is the opener a greater burden on the bullpen? While I do wonder about the opener strategy I am certain that the Twins need 5 good arms they can rely on in the bullpen or it doesn’t matter how they configure their rotation. I think they need to add 3 relievers.
  7. jorgenswest
    Necessity for stacking or any model?
  8. jorgenswest
    Does the stacking plan increase the likelihood of a 13th pitcher? An opener is available to pitch between “starts” and does not need to be the same reliever every time. Both pitchers in the stack will not be available in the few games after the start and likely need to be the same two when that spot in the rotation returns. That works with the large rosters of September. With a 25 man roster I think it limits flexibility to the point where a 13th pitcher becomes a fixture. The trade off would probably be Tyler Austin. He is best suited to a role where his at bats are more limited against right handed pitching. A three man bench has space for a catcher, middle infielder and outfielder. There isn’t space for a bat. If Austin can be a regular than it could be a spot for a guy like Astudillo that gets sacrificed.
  9. jorgenswest
    The success of the opener strategy hinges on enough really good arms in the bullpen. The success of the traditional starter that now pitches 5-6 innings hinges on enough really good arms in the bullpen. The Twins first concern has to be to find 5 really good arms in the bullpen and whichever starter strategy the elect will be a success. Can we put anyone in the bullpen on the really good arm list? May and Rogers? Who else?
  10. jorgenswest
    Falvey is holding the leash. Falvey’s own leash can’t be longer than 2 more years.
  11. jorgenswest
    I think one of Cave or Kepler will step up as a solid RF. It is good to have both, Kepler has the plate discipline and needs to make better contact more often. He will improve as he enters his prime. Will it improve enough? Cave barreled the ball often and needs to manage the strike zone or pitchers will not throw him pitches he can barrel. His strike zone management will improve as he hits his prime. Will it improve enough? I would lean towards Kepler with the better strikezone management to be more likely to take the step forward next year. I think Cave is going to have some struggles as pitchers adjust and he improves in his plate discipline but has the higher long term ceiling. There is a spot for both on the roster and there will be plenty of playing time for both. They need to perform.
  12. jorgenswest
    Teams must be wondering if he will be nontendered. What kinds of offers does he get if nontendered? Maybe he gets a contract similar to Lance Lynn as a ceiling. In that case would you rather give up a prospect and pay 9+ million in arbitration or spend a little more in free agency and keep the prospect? I don’t think there is much space between his value in free agency vs. his arbitration award. Certainly not enough space to give up much more than a guy that is on the fringes of the 40.
  13. jorgenswest
    On trusting defensive metrics... Is it just the available measures you do not trust? Do you believe that individual defense has a significant impact on preventing runs?
  14. jorgenswest
    Huh? I would not tender Grossman so I really don’t get the response. I want a clear upgrade. I want a really good bat.
  15. jorgenswest
    I would not tender Grossman either but I do think he will be projected to have a better OPS next year than either Cave or certainly Wade. I think the Twins need to seek a clear upgrade and that player isn’t on the roster.
  16. jorgenswest
    Slash stats vary widely in partial season samples. I don’t think they have any meaning for the future and do not represent a trend.
  17. jorgenswest
    One way to try to measure the value of a manager has been to look at runs scored and try to see if they more more than an expected number of wins. Can a manager win more than their share of close games? I don’t think this measures has shown a significant impact. It is very difficult to measure how many extra runs a coaching staff added or prevented due to the preparation of the players and the relationships they build towards getting the most out of a player. How would that be measured? The Twins front office needs to find that manager who is better than almost anyone else at preparing and getting the most out a player’s ability.
  18. jorgenswest
    My objection is using slash stats and WAR to support an argument for or against Cave’s future value. WAR does a good job of talking about the past but at his sample helps little looking forward. The Twins need to look forward and there are good reasons (strike outs and walks) to be concerned about both bats. The one valuable asset to count on is Buxton’s defense.
  19. jorgenswest
    I do know that both his strike out rate and walk rates over his full 2017 season were better than Cave's 2018 rates. I do know that he is far superior defensively. I would guess if you could go back and pull a sample from the end of the 2017 season back to match Cave's sample size he would have more WAR but I don't think WAR should support any argument at that sample. I do know that Buxton's sample would not be selective like Cave's where his data is skewed due to sitting disproportionately against left handed pitching.
  20. jorgenswest
    If anyone is projecting Cave based on his OPS and WAR they should add that the sample in his half season is not enough to be reliable. His strike out and walk ratios should be a concern. We have to wonder if he can hit lefties well. Scaling his numbers to a full season makes even less sense when his data is disproportionately skewed to right handed pitching. He is a reasonable fall back option for Kepler or Buxton but his OPS/WAR do not project reliably forward.
  21. jorgenswest
    I will have to think about it. You may be right. I would hope a manager with superior relational skills would help get the best out of players and also right the ship quicker when things go bad. I wonder if a manager is a consideration at all in signing a contract either as a free agent or to remain with the team. Maybe not. Money is king here. Machines do a lot now but I do wonder if managing playing time, bullpen, batting order, match ups and the like still has an important human element. I guess I am relectant to agree that managers add almost nothing because then I have wasted a good amount of time being a critic of their decisions. If managers add almost nothing then that doesn’t leave much to criticize.
  22. jorgenswest
    A lot of stuff happened that was out of Molitor’s control. I don’t question that. Manager’s matter though. Has anyone pointed out some deficit they need to fill now that Molitor is gone? What did he bring to the table that will be really hard to replace? The Twins (or any mid market team) need a great manager and front office to compete. Average won’t do it. “Not his fault” won’t do it. It is on the front office to find that great manager. If they can’t it should be their jobs on the line next.
  23. jorgenswest
    If Dozier’s knee injury is the root of his poor performance he might be the best bargain of the winter on a one year deal. The Twins need to middle infielders. Neither Dozier nor Escobar should be ruled out without at least finding out what it will take to sign them.
  24. jorgenswest
    I think the starting catcher job needs to be Astudillo’s to lose next year. Let Castro and Garver come in and try to beat him out but if they don’t really stand out, I am going with Astudillo. I know I can’t see how well he preps the game plan or communicates with pitchers but he sure seems like the leader I would want at catcher. He seems to provide some of the fire and energy Escobar brought. I can’t imagine the how the AAA staff would remove him from catcher in order to give it to an older journeyman like a Rupp. They could just have easily signed a journeyman infielder if there was a need at 3B and kept him at catcher. That lost 4 weeks at catcher prior to his call up is inexcusable. Several teams missed on this guy. The Twins almost missed on him. I could be really wrong. September call ups can be tell a misleading story at the plate. I don’t think playing behind the plate is that different in September though. I think he is a starting catcher.
  25. jorgenswest
    How much confidence should he Twins have in Astudillo? Do they address catcher in the off-season finding a veteran for the 25 man roster?
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