jorgenswest

Thanks for the fix. This was my source http://www.fangraphs.com/library/principles/contract-details/service-time-super-two/

The Twins can push back Alex Meyer's service time if they want. It will likely cost one start from the 5th starter. The first time they will need a 5th starter will be April 12. The next time would be April 19. By that date, he would not have enough days left to earn a year of service (169 needs 172). Alex Meyer can earn the job in spring and get sent down missing only one start as the 5th starter. In any case, service time should not be an argument for a 25 year old. It is likely that a 25 year old season would be better than the 31 year old season you would be gaining by delaying.

I don't agree that they can be successful buying a starting rotation. Last year they bought three starters. They had another in his second year of purchase. One was great and three were awful. It would be hard to find three starters who performed as poorly. Together the four accounted for about a third of the budget and 11 games under .500. Can they actually buy it? That's what they bought last year. The Twins improved to 70 wins by actually buying 80% of a rotation. What part of the budget will the Twins spend on Hughes, Santana, Nolasco and Pelfrey this year? I think they will have a total of 16 years committed to them. Can we get 10-12 good seasons out of 16? Is that enough for the cost? Is it enough to move towards 90 wins? So far they are 1-2 in seasons purchased. I don't believe they can win by buying a rotation. The best year is often the first year as pitchers lose velocity and decline as they enter or continue in their thirties. I believe the only way out of this cycle of mediocrity is to develop a core of cost controlled young pitching and then give them the starts in the major leagues that are necessary for their development.

The cost of trading for pitching prospects is high. Trading established talent for pitching talent in A ball or AA ball is going to land on the side of major league talent much more often. The gamble pays off when you get a good major league starter for all of their team control years. Until they can develop their own pitching talent, the Twins need to continue to seek similar moves.

The Twins need to take the best 12 north. They need to put the best 5 in the rotation. Last year's performance matters and Hughes and Santana are in. Gibson would need to be down in velocity to be out. If May and Meyer are throwing better than Nolasco, Pelfrey and Milone, the young pitchers need to be in the rotation. None of these 5 should be "in line". They need to go out and earn the job.

Plouffe had virtually no experience at 3B entering 2012. It was Valencia and Burroughs to start the season in 2012. Ten guys some time there in spring but Plouffe wasn't among them. He did play one game there in the minors in 2011. Is it surprising that he struggled with the glove learning the position in the midst of a major league season? His improvement is a credit to his hard work and the experience at playing the position. The Twins probably could have done a better job of recognizing where he would best fit at the major league level and preparing him for that role.

Thanks for the work. Every attempt at making sense on fielding data gets us closer to understanding the impact on the game. I hope to do some crunching on with the help of play index when time allows.

Thanks for the correction. He has road xFIPS as a reliever of 3.46 and 3.78 (near NL league average) in mostly low leverage situations. He should be projected to decline given his age. I am still not convinced he should be a lock for a spot in the pen. He needs to show he is one of the best 12. If he isn't clearly better than Oliveros or other young arm, the twins need to go with the upside of the younger pitcher with team control beyond 2015.

On Stauffer's xFIP... Over his career, his xFIP on the road is almost 1 run greater than at home. Since xFIP is adjusted for park, they should be close. The number are already adjusted for Petco. Which pitcher will he be with the Twins? Why is he a below average reliever away from Petco? If it isn't the Petco guy, he needs to be released. He certainly shouldn't be a lock for a job.

Starting with the pen. The only guy I would have in red is Perkins. Casey Fien's strike out rate was down all last year. The combination of extreme fly ball and a strike out rate that dropped from 29.9% to 19.6%. It is a myth that he fell apart at the end. The strike out rate was around 20% all year and he was a disaster waiting to happen. The disaster struck in the second half. Given his fly ball rate, he needs to move his strike out rate back towards 30% to be in the pen of a winning team. If he doesn't show it is the spring, I would option him out and have him show it in AAA. There were 58 left handed non closer relievers in the major leagues last year (30+ appearances). Brian Duensing was 51st in strike out rate, 50th in FIP and 39th in OPS+ against. He isn't likely to be better next year. Tim Stauffer's performance outside of Petco Park has been poor. He needs to show he can pitch well outside of Petco or he needs to be released. Caleb Thielbar's rankings compared to the 58 lefties above were 47, 30 and 43. He can still be optioned and may need to show it in AAA. If the Twins are going to return to a winning team, they need to have players who rank in the middle or better. If they are below the middle, they need to have the upside of youth. These four need to show they are better than the average guy in their role or they need to be optioned or released. All of these guys have earned the right to fight for a job in the bullpen this spring. None of them should be locks to make it. The Twins need to take the best 12 north.

I agree when it is a case of a pitcher throwing well in the majors the previous season and ends pitching well. Gibson might be included with Santana, Hughes and Perkins. If Nolasco and Pelfrey had the 80% anchoring them down, they wouldn't make it. The Twins need to bring the next best 8 north. Nolasco, Pelfrey and the other veterans need to show they are among that group.

I think last year's performance can and should be used to assess best 12. Hughes, Santana and Perkins can go to spring training and work on being ready for opening day. The rest of the guys better bring something. Meyer ought to have the opportunity to beat out Stauffer or Pelfrey or Nolasco for a job. The Twins need to bring their best 12 north when on field performance means everything.

Does that mean you think that Milone and May are much more likely to show they are better pitchers in spring? If Meyer is clearly one is of the best 12, should they still send him down?

Oops... Jose Bautista (not Tony)

What do the Twins do about Trevor Plouffe and Brian Dozier? Extend? Go year to year? Hope to sell high at 30? There has been some great discussion started by Seth on Dozier and Plouffe. Dozier is 27 years old and will become a free agent when he is 31 years old. Until that time the Twins can give him one-year deal, albeit at increasingly expensive contracts if he performs well. Plouffe is 28 years old and will become a free agent at 31 years old, too. There also have been studies that show aging curves in the post steroid era are changing. Fewer players are maintaining their peak seasons into their thirties. There are many studies to read. Here is one by Jeff Zimmerman for Fangraphs.I wondered how players currently around 33 years old have aged. With the help of play index from Baseball Reference, I searched for all players who had seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or better in 2006-7 as 26- or 27-year-olds. There were many others that were below that level but they were probably not in any team consideration for getting an extension. Before getting to the group there is one player who might be included in the group who should be mentioned here, because he is an extreme outlier. He, by age 27, was with his 5th team, having been waived twice and traded for the likes of Justin Huber and Robinson Diaz. After over 1500 plate appearances through age 27 he had an OPS+ of 89. For comparison, Chris Parmelee sits at 96 and he was just released by the Twins. Tony Batista, that one player, has had a performance since age 27 that has been outstanding with his opportunity in Toronto. He didn't make the group because at age 27 Pittsburgh wasn't thinking extension, they were thinking dump. I would like to place a table of data below so you can see all of the players. The new blogging software makes tables very difficult. All 24 of the players in the search can be found in this google sheet. For each player I grouped his performance in three season chunks using ages 25-27, 28-30 and 31-33. I did this so that any single year variation did not stand out. I also used three as it is the norm in many projection systems. There were a few middle infielders in the group including Mike Aviles, Khalil Greene, Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla. There were some former Twins like Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. I added Jason Bartlett, but he did not meet the first criteria since his over 100 OPS+ seasons came after 27. His decline at 31-33 is similar to several others. I wondered how many of the players had more plate appearances AND a better OPS+ from 31-33. The answer was none; no one had more plate appearances and a better OPS+ from 31-33 than they did from 25-27. No one. There were, though, two players with a better OPS+ from 31-33. Matt Holliday had an increase of 5% in OPS+ while coming to the plate 5% less than he did from ages 25-27. Shane Victorino had an OPS+ increase of 4% while injuries and platooning dropped his playing time by 17%. Brain Dozier through his age 27 season sits at a career OPS+ of 98 in 1670 plate appearances. Maybe the Twins will get lucky and he will follow a path similar to Brandon Phillips. He only dropped 1% in his age 31-33 seasons while playing time dropped by 6%. From age 28-30, he was up 13% compared to 25-27. Trevor Plouffe through age 28 has an OPS+ of 99. Plouffe and Dozier started at an older age. Does that make a difference? Aging curve studies suggest that it will work against them and later career starts lead to earlier declines. There are several players in the group who started at age 25 or 26. They did not age well. The two that improved debuted at 22 (Victorino) and 24 (Holliday). The decline of players into their early thirties is real. Teams need to plan for it as they make any extension offer. Player with and OPS+ of 125 or better over three years have plenty of room for decline. That isn't the case for Dozier and Plouffe. If the Twins do decide to buy free agent years from either, the Twins must be certain that there is something different in Plouffe and Dozier that will keep them playing at their peak longer than anyone in this group. Click here to view the article

What do the Twins do about Plouffe and Dozier? Extend? Go year to year? Hope to sell high at 30? There has been some great discussion started by Seth on Dozier and Plouffe. There also have been studies that show aging curves in the post steroid era are changing. Fewer players are maintaining their peak seasons into their thirties. There are many studies to read. Here is one by Jeff Zimmerman for Fangraphs. I wondered how players currently around 33 years old have aged. With the help of play index from Baseball Reference, I searched for all players that had seasons with an OPS+ of 100 or better in 2006-7 as 26 or 27 year olds. There were many others that were below that level but they were probably not in any team consideration for getting an extension. Before getting to the group there is one player in the group that should be addressed. One player by age 27 was with his 5th team having been waived twice and traded for the likes of Justin Huber and Robinson Diaz. After over 1500 plate appearances through age 27 he had an OPS+ of 89. For comparison, Chris Parmelee sits at 96 as the Twins have released him. Jose Bautista's performance since age 27 has been outstanding with his opportunity in Toronto. He didn't make the group because at age 27 Pittsburgh wasn't thinking extension, they were thinking dump. I would like to place a table of data below so you can see all of the players. The new blogging software makes tables very difficult. All of the players in the search can be found in this google sheet. For each player, I grouped their performance in 3 season chunks using ages 25-27, 28-30 and 31-33. I did this so that any single year variation did not stand out. I also used three as it is the norm in many projection systems. There were a few middle infielders in the group including Mike Aviles, Khalil Greene, Brandon Phillips and Dan Uggla. There were some former Twins like Ryan Doumit, Justin Morneau and Jason Kubel. I added Jason Bartlett, but he did not fit the first criteria since his over 100 OPS+ seasons came after 27. His decline at 31-33 is similar to several others. I wondered how many of the players would play have a better OPS+ from 31-33 as well as more plate appearances in that time frame. With over 20 players in the group, no one had more plate appearances and a better OPS+ from 31-33 than they did from 25-27. No one. There were two players with a better OPS+ from 31-33. Matt Holliday had an increase of 5% in OPS+ while coming to the plate 5% less than he did from ages 25-27. Shane Victorino had an OPS+ increase of 4% while injuries and platooning dropped his playing time by 17%. Brain Dozier through his age 27 season sits at a career OPS+ of 98 in 1670 career plate appearances. Maybe the Twins will get lucky and he will follow a path similar to Brandon Phillips. He only dropped 1% in his age 31-33 seasons while playing time dropped by 6%. From age 28-30, he was up 13% compared to 25-27. Trevor Plouffe through age 28 has an OPS+ of 99. Plouffe and Dozier started at an older age. Does that make a difference? Aging curve studies suggest that it will work against them and later career starts lead to earlier declines. There are several players in the group who started at age 25 or 26. They did not age well. The two that improved debuted at 22 (Victorino) and 24 (Holliday). The decline of players into their early thirties is real. Teams need to plan for it as they make any extension offer. Player with and OPS+ of 125 or better over three years have plenty of room for decline. That isn't the case for Dozier and Plouffe. If the Twins do decide to buy free agent years from either, the Twins must be certain that there is something different in Plouffe and Dozier that will keep them playing at their peak longer than anyone in this group.

Lots of things point towards Stauffer trending down. -Changing to AL -Moving from Petco Park (0.826 and 29th) to Target Field (1.116 and 3rd) -In the decline phase of career. Non closers drop off significantly from age 31 to 33. -Used in low leverage last year. If the Twins change that use it will impact performance. His ERA and missed bats in low leverage situations were nice last year, but it would be foolish for the Twins to take last year's numbers and project something similar this year. http://espn.go.com/mlb/stats/parkfactor I also did a study of aging on relievers from 31 to 33 when the Twins were considering extending Burton after 1 year. He declined significantly passed 31. Unfortunately, the study is unreadable after TD's change in blogging software last summer. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-1759-burton-whats-is-the-future-for-a-31-year-old-set-up-man/

The Twins extended Span through his age 31 season. The Twins already have that team control with Dozier. It isn't a good comp unless the ages are the same. Two guys that started at a similar are Donaldson and Carpenter. They have career OPS+ of 125 (far better than Dozier's best single season). Kipnis is a year younger on the path and has a career OPS+ of 109. All have space for decline. Dozier has a career OPS+ of 98. There is no space for the decline. Shouldn't they at least wait until the career number look closer to 110 in OPS+? The best path is to sell high by age 30 and let someone else buy the decline. His contract will be easier to trade if it does not include age 32 or 33 seasons. They must not extend now and buy a free agency year. Span is not a good comp. They didn't commit to Span's age 32 season and even age 31 was an option.

At SS they need to use the guy with the better glove. If it is Escobar, then Santana can fill a need in CF. If Santana, Escobar will get plenty of at bats in the utility role.

I am sure you are correct. Last year the Twins had one of the oldest pitching staffs in the AL. The number of innings from 25 and under was near the bottom. Those veterans gave them near bottom performance from the pen and rotation. Is a long term solution in the plan? Ryan's solution is to fill their bullpen with guys in their 30s in Perkins, Fien, Duensing, Pelfrey and Stauffer. Perkins is the only one of the 5 that would make any roster.

Neil Allen was a starter in the minors. He hit the majors at 21 as a reliever mixing in 5 starts in 50 appearances. After closing for a few seasons, he returned to the starting rotation at 25 with the Cardinals. I wonder how that experience will influence him as a coach. I would hope he would see it as a positive and be open to the idea of Meyer or May in a similar role. A bullpen including decline phase players in Stauffer, Pelfrey, Duensing and Fien does nothing to build this team long term. I would rather see that opportunity go to Tonkin, Oliveros, Pressly, May, Meyer, Graham or maybe even Achter. If any off those guys develop, the Twins have a piece of the future.

I won't be opposed until he makes the roster in favor of Tonkin. There are very few people left who would call a Target Field a pitching friendly park. It was number 3 in park factor according to runs last year. Number 1 in the AL. Every element of offense was given a boost in Target Field. One year isn't enough to judge a park. The usual standard is three years. The two years previous it ranked 10 and 12. Target Field did look like a pitching friendly park in its inaugural season. That impression created the first season lingers in a few minds.

It may be his last chance to be a regular CF, but he has demonstrated skills that can help a major league team. He can hit left handed pitching. He would be an above average defender on a corner. He is adequate in CF. Some team will give him a role platooning in RF with a guy that doesn't hit left handed pitching well and is limited defensively. His skills play well on a bench. Defensive replacement, pinch hitter against a LOOGY, pinch running and a platoon option on a corner. I would give him two more months to see if he can hit righties well enough to be a regular CF. Meanwhile Rosario is the AAA CF and Buxton is the AA CF. On June 1 if either is dominating while Hicks is struggling, they come up and take over and Hicks slides into a bench role and start him on a corner against lefties.

Hicks is a useful player. He has a good arm. His acceptable CF play would be a plus on a corner. He had an OBP over 340. His career OPS against lefties is .758 (792 last year). He is young and will get better even without fixing. He could platoon with Arcia right now and be valuable.