jorgenswest

They need to trade Pelfrey. He isn't under contract next year and they certainly don't need to commit to another pitcher in their 30s. His groundball rate is at a career high with enough sample to hope it is based on skill. It might give him some trade value not expected going into the season. The Twins need to take the best the market will offer. They should probably do it soon before injury or string of mediocre starts.

There will be player movement in the minors the last two or three weeks of June. Polanco is a good candidate to move up.

Plouffe is in the midst of his peak seasons. He is a valuable player in his age 29 season. He is under team control through 31. It is unlikely he will take another significant step up and very likely he will not perform this well at 32. The Twins need to enjoy the ride and sell high.

The Twins seem to have a plan for Hicks. If that plan was to give him extended time in AAA, they need to follow through. Extended time might be June 1 or Memorial Day, but it is still too early now. I would have had him as a platoon 4th OF. Though I disagreed with their plan, I do believe they need to follow through. It is important to have a plan in developing players and not react to small samples.

Eddie Yost was an all star in 1952. They traded him after the 1958 season for little at age 32. In his 57 and 58 seasons he had WARs of 0.4 and 0.7. I fail to see the comparison to Plouffe who has been far more valuable at this similar spot in career. Yost's perfromance in 57 and 58 is a much better parallel to the CF situation in Minnesota

I appreciate that data in a small sample size were not used to make the decision. Hicks will get his shot this year. Pinto will get his shot. I think it is the last option for both. A long stretch (~40 game) of success in AAA followed by a strategic transition to the majors will benefit both.

May has two more starts before Nolasco will be available. While Nolasco has been out both Pelfrey and Milone have put up starts that are better than any of Nolasco's 28 starts as a Twin (using game score). He might not be one of the best 5. If he isn't, he belongs in the pen. Easy decision.

I don't see a team with young players seeing Gardenhire as a fit. If a team is out of contention, Gardenhire is not the manager to finish the season. His bad teams never play well in August and September. I would go interim and look for a manager in the winter when the pool is larger. A team with veterans and a need for a change to a player's manager might be a good fit. Does that describe any of the team's above?

Nolasco's first rehab start is Sunday. It will likely take at least two as he builds towards 100 pitches. The 5 in the rotation have at least two more starts before a decision is made. If they are all pitching at 4th starter level or better, it would be foolish to replace them with Nolasco.

With almost every move since Ryan returned, little value has been placed on defensive skill. While I do believe he cares that players play the game right and throw to the right cut off man, I don't think he values skill defensively. It has contributed significantly the Twins inability to prevent runs. The only solution the front office can see is to exchange mediocre pitchers with different mediocre pitchers. Give mediocre pitchers a bad defense behind them and league bottom catchers in front of them and they perform among the worst in baseball.

It is too early. Once they decide to send Hicks down, they need to give him a long enough stretch in AAA. The next time they call him up needs to be the last time. They likely poorly evaluated Schafer's skills when they took him to arbitration. Give him 120 PAs and assess. Stubbs is not a good solution. He is now a below average defender in CF. He is past his prime seasons. His numbers were home fueled in 2014. Trading for him based on that performance would be like signing a decline phase reliever with Petco fueled numbers. The Twins already have a guy that can compete with his road 211/283/333 and struggle against right handed pitching. Give him some more time in AAA.

At this point, players can not be evaluated based on stats. Whether some is tearing it up or struggling, the stats don't show it. Someone watching the Twins or Red Wing games can assess the approach at the plate and the quality of each at bat. They can assess the quality of contact. They can assess the defense in the outfield. Around 120 plate appearances strike out rate, walk rate, groundball rate and fly ball rate become useful in assessing full time players. Until then the only way to assess the players is to see them in the ballpark every game. A skilled eye can see a change in ability or talent in a much smaller sample. It is those trained eyes in Rochester and Minnesota that the Twins must rely on to make the decision on Hicks, Rosario and Schafer.

Oravetz returned to the Twins organization after playing for the Senators and Mets organizations in 1962. At 5'4" and 145 it must have been a continual battle to remain a professional ball player.

Reading the article on the first big Twin trade, helped me recall the first three Minnesota Twin trades that were minor on the field yet involving three legends. Ernie Oravetz was traded for Ed Palmquist and Joe Altobelli. All three were career minor leaguers and Palmquist and Altobelli did play some for the Twins after they acquired them. Altobelli managed in the major leagues for the Giants, Orioles and Cubs. He won a World Series for the Orioles. People in Rochester know him as Mr. Baseball. Following his season with the Twins he played in Rochester in 1962. He has also served as coach, manager, general manager and broadcaster. http://m.milb.com/ne...14090192377228/ The franchises second trade also involved a World Series winning manager. The Twins traded Billy Consolo for Billy Martin. Martin retired from baseball after 1961 and stayed in the organization as a scout, third base coach, AAA manager and finally manager in 1969. He was part of the Twins first two playoff teams in 1965 and 1969. I believe the stretch from 1961-69 was his longest continual stretch with any organization. It lasted until he knocked out Dave Boswell with punches in the alley behind the Lindell A.C. bar. On the same day as the Martin trade, the Twins traded Paul Giel and Reno Bertoia for Bill Tuttle and a player to be named later. Nine days later the player to be named later was one of the original players in the trade - Paul Giel. Paul did not want to leave Minnesota and after one start with his new club he retired from baseball. Giel, born in Winona, was a football and baseball star for the Gophers in the early 50s and runner up for the Heisman in 1953. After his return to the Twins and retirement, he was the Vikings announcer from 1962-1969 and University of Minnesota Athletic Director from 1971-1989. The Twins didn't see much on the playing field from Altobelli, Martin and Giel but all three stepped out into significant careers following their last games as a major leaguer and Twin in 1961.

There were three Twins trades in the 1961. None of them had the impact on the playing field but all involved players whose would go on to very significant careers. Ernie Oravetz was traded for Ed Palmquist and Joe Altobelli. All three were career minor leaguers and Palmquist and Altobelli did play some for the Twins after they acquired them. Altobelli managed in the major leagues for the Giants, Orioles and Cubs. He won a World Series for the Orioles. People in Rochester know him as Mr. Baseball. Following his season with the Twins he played in Rochester in 1962. He has also served as coach, manager, general manager and broadcaster. http://m.milb.com/news/article/2014090192377228/ The franchises second trade also involved a World Series winning manager. The Twins traded Billy Consolo for Billy Martin. Martin retired from baseball after 1961 and stayed in the organization as a scout, third base coach, AAA manager and finally manager in 1969. He was part of the Twins first two playoff teams in 1965 and 1969. I believe the stretch from 1961-69 was his longest continual stretch with any organization. It lasted until he knocked out Dave Boswell with punches in the alley behind the Lindell A.C. bar. On the same day as the Martin trade, the Twins traded Paul Giel and Reno Bertoia for Bill Tuttle and a player to be named later. Nine days later the player to be named later was one of the original players in the trade - Paul Giel. Paul did not want to leave Minnesota and after one start with his new club he retired from baseball. Giel was a football and baseball star for the Gophers in the early 50s and runner up for the Heisman in 1953. After his return to the Twins and retirement, he was the Vikings announcer from 1962-1969 and University of Minnesota Athletic Director from 1971-1989. The Twins didn't see much on the playing field from Altobelli, Martin and Giel but all three stepped out into significant careers following their last games as a Major Leaguer in 1961.

I was more hopeful until I was reminded of the 87 and 91 teams. On the 1987 team, all of the starting position players were in their 20s. Each one of them could be expected to improve along the aging curve. Add to that Viola who was entering his age 27 season and their was a lot of reason for hope among the young players. Only one guy in the 1991 rotation was over 27. The starters were like Kyle Gibson where there was hope of a step forward because of their age. They were willing to bring up opening day their best prospect at age 22 with very little time in the minors. There is hope in that youth. I have hope for Kyle Gibson and that he will take a step forward. I have hope in Dozier, Escobar, Santana and Vargas that they will continue their growth. Is that foundation for enough hope? Not when you compare it to the upside on the 87 and 91 teams.

Mike Pelfrey chose the more difficult path of battling back from a torn UCL. Coming back from Tommy John and then losing another year to injury and fighting back again. It is time to get behind the guy who is fighting back to save his career without the help of steroids.

Every year I use BR play index and select the top 150 pitcher by starts. One of the sidetracks in the article below has that info. http://twinsdaily.com/blog/36/entry-6349-what-can-the-twins-expect-from-santana-and-nolasco/ Last year the median starter was 100, but sometimes it is 99 or 98 because of relievers. The 90th rank had an ERA+ of 95 last year. Santana would have in the midst of the number 4 starters. Like Correia, his ability to stay healthy gives him a boost in value but not in performance. The team just get more starts at that level. Three years ago he was near the bottom of the 150. Two years ago he was a number 2 likely with help of the Royals league best defense. With the Twins defense and park, an ERA mid 4s should be expected this year with decline if the defense does not improve. That is a loss, but not a catastrophic loss. It will be catastrophic if his decline accelerates without steroids and the Twins stubbornly keep him on the roster and don't look for a better solution.

I am not sure why they paid a 32 year old pitcher coming off a season with a 92+ ERA tens of millions. It does not really matter how much he is paid. It doesn't change his projections. He was projected for 0.7 WAR by ZIPS and 1.5 by steamer. Cut that in half. The new fifth starter is taking his starts. If you don't want to call him the fifth starter call him something else. If the starters replacing him are replacement level, the cost in wins will be minimal because Santana skill level starts below league average. Assuming the starts are below replacement level, the cost might be two wins. If you are going to win 72 games, you might chose to risk winning 65 by going young and developing that talent rather than buying decline phase talent to get to 72. That would be floating a rotation of team control guys like Hughes, Gibson, Meyer, May, Milone, Berrios...

Pelfrey has battled back through two very difficult injuries. He has an opportunity that may be his last. The Twins need some good stories this year. I am hoping his hard work to battle through injuries towards a successful season is one of those good stories. Go Pelf!

If the fifth starter can pitch at replacement level, it probably has the cost of 1 win. Twin fifth starters haven't been that successful so maybe it will be two wins. That might be critical to a team fighting for the wild card but it doesn't change the 2015 outlook for the Twins.

One was a 20 year old kid in rookie ball. The other is a 10 year major league veteran with a salary that will set him up for life many times over. He was brought in to be a leader on the team. Neal Allen talked about his mentoring Berrios and they purposely paired them in the same game. He is role model for children in his country. His response about not knowing he had an old school steroid in his body is impossible to believe. This is something that is taken daily and methodically.

Pelfrey has worked hard to come back through two difficult injuries. He has done so without the apparent help of PEDs. I look forward to seeing him pitch and hope he has a career year. I really hope that whichever 5 starters the Twins have in the rotation when Santana is eligible return are doing a respectable enough job to keep him out of the rotation.

ZIPs projected Santana at 9-11 with a 4.64 ERA and 0.7 WAR. Steamer was more favorable at 11-13 and 4.36 for 1.5 WAR. Cut either in half. How will the Twins fans accept him at half that performance? Decline it over three more years. They will be lucky to get 3-4 WAR out of him over the course of the contract. Santana doesn't lose much here. He still gets almost 50 million. The Twins lose what would very likely be his best season as a Twin and pay big for the decline. I don't think the Twins make the playoffs until he is gone.

I generally agree. However, I think Pinto's bat is needed on the bench and then it comes down to a choice of Nunez and Herrmann. Nunez doesn't offer anything on the bench. Molitor said he doesn't see him in the outfield. The Yankees dropped him because he couldnt handle 2B. His only real position is 3B. Escobar is the better utility option defensively and overall. He needs to be in the lineup every opportunity. Any Nunez gets takes away from him. Pinto is the better right handed bench bat. Robinson runs well. It seems like Herrmann and his ability to catch and play the outfield and first helps more. He also can shuttle back and forth when the need for the 13th pitcher surfaces. Ultimately it could be neither if both Hicks and Rosario do well.