jorgenswest

The Twins need to develop starting pitching. They need to develop Thorpe’s talent which will have greater value than a return in trade. They are filling the back end with veteran question marks like Bailey and Chacin. I would prefer the go with the uncertainty of Dobnak, Thorpe or Smeltzer for at least one of those spots. Maybe they will.

Randy Dobnak undrafted college pitcher In 2017 moved pretty fast from independent ball to the majors. I am confident now that if pitchers perform well and remain healthy they will move up. The previous group was unable to provide the major league team with pitchers. It may have been an inability to recognize talent or an inability to develop talent. It doesn’t matter how fast or slow they move if they don’t have the talent or don’t know how to use it.

He needs to work hard and get back. It is the work that matters. As long as he works hard I don’t care what he says and I certainly have no interest in what he (or anyone for that matter) tweets.

In the spring of 2018 the Twins traded Luis Gil for Jake Cave. At the time of the trade Luis Gil had been in the Twin organization since 2015. He had thrown 65 innings over those three years with 73 strike outs and 46 walks. He did not pitch due to a shoulder injury in 2016 and had yet to pitch in rookie ball. He did not make Seth Stoh's 2018 prospect handbook. He did have a big fastball. In July of that season the Twins traded Fernando Rodney for Dakota Chalmers. Chalmers was injured at the time of the trade. He had been in the Yankee organization since 2015. He had thrown 121 innings over those years with 137 strikeouts and 91 walks. He would not pitch due to Tommy John surgery in 2018 and had yet to pitch above Low A. They have some similarities. They both had injuries that caused them to lose a season. They both had big strike out and walk numbers early on. They both needed to be put on the 40 man roster this off season and start their options clock. Keith Law ranked Luis Gil as the Yankees 14th prospect writing... He was ranked 5th in the MLB pipeline and 10th by Fangraphs. Keith Law ranked Dakota Chalmers as the 19th best prospect writing... He was ranked 23rd in the MLB pipeline and unranked by Fangraphs. Here is a recent article on Chalmers from Baseball America following his successful AFL season. Both have significant command issues as shown. Both look to be relievers. Luis Gil will be 22 this year and likely needs to start in High A where he has only three games of experience. He has three options to figure out the strike zone and gain experience at the higher levels. Dakota Chalmers is 23. He will likely start in AA. He also has three options to gain command of his pitches. The Twins acquired Jake Cave for Luis Gil. He has given the 2.3 fWAR as their 4th outfielder in two seasons. The Twins have 4 more seasons of control. The Twins traded Fernando Rodney to acquire Dakota Chalmers. They gave up control through 2019. Rodney netted -0.1 fWAR for the A's before he was released and then part of the Nationals World Series team (0.5 fWAR). Would you trade Chalmers for Gil today? Chalmers is closer. He might help in the pen this year if the Twins went that direction with him. Gil will likely start the year in high A and still be given the chance to be a starter. His value to the Yankees would be to show better control in the first half as a starter and then moving him at the deadline. Gil is further away with a history of shoulder trouble. Any injury set back and it is hard to imagine that he will be ready before his options run out. I will be interested in where they both start and whether Chalmers is in the pen or rotation. I would probably trade Chalmers for Gil. I like the upside of that arm and the possibility of having that trade piece at the deadline. Chalmers may be ready to help this year though. I see them both in a similar place as pitchers with a history of arm trouble, swing and miss stuff and command issues. They both need spots on the 40. In the moments when I regret the trade of Gil for Cave I need to remember appreciating the acquiring Chalmers for Rodney.

I think one of the young starters should get those 7-8 starts before Pineda returns. Dobnak appears most ready. I think Chacin is here only if someone goes down or it is really clear that his 2018 form has returned.

Danny Santana had an OPS+ of 130 and some data behind it to make us wonder whether he would repeat in year 2. Arraez had a low hard hit rate and exit velocity. Those two numbers are similar to Revere. Is it at least worth wondering about?

Should we ignore the 4th percentile hard hit rate or 19th percentile exit velocity? I don’t think it is wise to jump to only lack of home runs from there. Are there any other players who have consistently been better than league average hitters at those ranks? I don’t know the answer to that question but it can’t be many. It will be interesting to see how teams pitch and defend Arraez differently this year and then how he adjusts.

Revere had a career because of his defense and base running. Arraez will only have a career if his bat is much better than Revere’s.

Things are not bleak In the minors. Players who end up at 3B don’t often start as 3Bs in the minors or even play there as their primary position throughout the minors. Donaldson was a catcher through AAA. If Donaldson hadn’t been signed it is a spot that Lewis could have taken.

I was encouraged to see Gonzalez at 2B today. He might be the best option if something goes awry with Arraez.

Astudillo’s DRC+ was 95 last year and above league average for his career. That is better than Gonzalez (93) and Cave (89) who faced a much easier set of opposing pitchers.

Ehire plays middle infield. Gonzalez plays the corners. They overlap at 3B. If Ehire isn’t needed it will be Gordon or Lewis or some other middle infielder that pushes him out. Gonzalez needs to hit well enough to be useful at a corner.

Seth- I really appreciate this report. Thank you.

I think any projection for Gonzalez should probably give little weight to 2017-2018. His 2019 numbers are in line with his 2016 but he isn’t nearly as valuable as 2016 because he played just 1 game at SS and 2 games at 2B last year. Even Astudillo was given 2 games at 2B. He is still a good defender on a corner. His bat likely at 5-10% below league average isn’t empty. A good BABIP year and he a valuable piece. Selecting the right match ups with pitchers and his numbers will be skewed better. I hope he has one more useful year. On the other hand if there is more decline I hope the Twins will be ready to cut ties.

I wonder how to adjust the home run context for era. Is there an ISO+? The duo of Mathews and Adcock must have been pretty good in an era where it was not as common to hit 35 home runs. Edit: I took a look. I think they should have made the list in 1956. They finished top 5 in baseball in home runs. Mathews led all 3B and Adcock led all 1B. Looking forward to Sano and Donaldson topping that duo.

Gil wasn’t even in the Twins prospect handbook at the time of the trade. He is a good prospect now but he is probably still a lottery ticket. He was signed in 2015 and over 5 years has only around 200 innings. The Yankees had to put him on their 40 and the options clock has started. He will turn 22 (same age as Duran) and probably needs to start in high A given his persistent high walk rate and just 3 games at that level. If he can get through this year making a quick jump to AA and getting his walk rate down he will move beyond a lottery ticket. Back to CF options... Cave is on the team because he is a major league caliber OF with options. I don’t think he is as good as his numbers but with the bat he has around an .800 OPS and with the glove statcast shows that he gets to a lot of balls. His success rate on catches was better than his expected catch rate and overall his success rate ranked 33rd of 225 players with at least 25 attempts. Buxton was 16th and Kepler 27th. On the other end Rosario was 199th and Wade 219th.

Cave made some obvious memorable mistakes that stick with us. Wade is more limited athletically and it shrinks his range. Cave gets to more balls and Wade is more reliable on the balls he gets to. I think Cave is the better bet long term defensively. His catch percentage was slightly better than his expected catch percentage last year. Wade wasn’t close.

One measure gave a more optimistic look at Astudillo’s performance last year. BP’s DRC+ has him at 95. Below league average certainly but better than other players that on the bench like Cave(89) and Gonzalez(92). Avila was at 96. There are several factors here but one is the context of the set of pitchers he faced which were much more difficult to hit than Cave’s group.

I think we need to look a lot deeper here. Has his top velocity dropped or is he throwing at top velocity less often? There has been an increase in Berrios’ number of batters faced with a ball in play after 1 pitch or 2 pitches from a 1-0 count. Batters crushed him early in counts last year. Is he taking something off the fastball to get ahead? Is that skewing the data? He did increase his innings and batters faced per game as a result but it might have reduced his average fastball. Is the increase in ISO driven by those at bats early in counts? Is he throwing a lower percentage of four seam fastballs? Would that reduce his average velocity? Is he closer to his max velocity against better opponents or hitters or in close games? There is quite a contrast in how Odorizzi and Berrios attack hitters early in counts. Odorizzi does not give in and the result is more pitches per plate appearance and shorter starts. Berrios has many more low count plate appearances and that may be as a result of taking a little off to get ahead.

You might consider rookie status as a third restriction. Not a prediction but I am pulling for Jake Reed to get noticed.

I don’t think you get that I am not using them as a negative or positive. In this case I added the context that the typical batter against his set of pitchers hit them better. I will often add context not to suggest a negative (or positive) but to suggest the futility of arguing with stats as a foundation - particularly stats resulting from a plate appearance. I think it comes off as a negative (or positive) when I offer that contrasting context. I am doing the same in another thread about Odorizzi the third time through. I am not suggesting a positive or negative but only pointing out that it can’t be seen by the skewed data offered. I offer this context to point out that teams need to make decisions long before these samples (that have a variety of skews) become reliable. You can't give all of your prospects the opportunity necessary to get to the point where the data becomes reliable. In fact that time span is multiple years so any improvement gets lost. That improvement can not be seen in slash stats. It needs to be seen by the staff. I trust the eyes of this staff and the skills of the data team. I think they took an organizational step forward in 2018 with hitting and a step forward last year with pitching. They haven’t been perfect but they need to get it right more often than most.

I would call it random variation due to sample and the skew of a schedule where his opportunity came with a disproportionately larger number of games against weaker pitchers. I wouldn’t use slash stats to make a decision about Cave at this sample or even double this sample.

Should he Twins be looking for a shortstop to add? Is Tovar enough additional depth? There may be some shortstops DFA’d as teams set their rosters. Some will have options. Others will not. If the player doesn’t have options the Twins might put them on as the 26th man temporarily and then hope the pass them through waivers later. If a player has options the Twins might have to offer something in return so that he isn’t lost to a team with an earlier claim.

Front offices need to work hard at avoiding the labels. They can absolutely work with Buxton in managing his crashing into walls. The Twins can help him manage migraines. Trainers can help with muscle strength imbalance. That work and conversation is important and necessary to get the most from Buxton. Seeing their player as injury prone as if it was a fixed trait would not help. We throw around all kinds of labels on the humans we watch playing the game. Teams can’t afford to do the same.

I wasn’t aware that he had an opt out date at the end of spring training. I wrote at the signing that this is a good deal with an opt out date of mid May but a bad deal if the opt out date is end of spring training. The Twins don’t need to give Chacin valuable spring innings to show case himself taking an opportunity from Dobnak, Thorpe or Smeltzer.