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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    Trading Larnach for Archer is probably a deal you lose on. You probably also lose on giving Ryu a four year deal. Those losses are relative though. The Twins have the salary space to absorb that loss. They also have the prospect capital at the corner OF spot to absorb that loss. Find a trade partner looking for that bat first prospect and get the best starter you can. If it takes Larnach for Archer. Do it. Even if it feels like it is too much. With that trade there is high likelihood that the 2020 team wins more games. I would go after Ray first and then offer him an extension he can’t refuse boosting his salary this year and locking in three more.
  2. jorgenswest
    Nick- Always fun I know that trade asset is different from the definition of asset in your post but I was interested what the computer algorithms at baseball trade values placed the top 20 Twin trade assets. Numbers 20-16 ranked by median trade value. 20: Astudillo (8.0) - Already shakes my faith in the valuation system. Willians position, options, control and contract all give him trade value. 19: Sano (8.1) - two years of control, inconsistency and arb status hurt his trade value 18: Duffey (8.3) - a year ago I didn’t perceive any value. Thanks to Wes Johnson and tunneling he has become an asset. 17: Matt Wallner (8.3) - power hitting corner prospect drafted 35th overall in 2019. The next wave behind Kirilloff and company. I don’t buy the values put on players who haven’t played AA yet but encouraging to see the depth here. 16: Misael Urbina (8.3)- 17 year old centerfield prospect with good speed, walks and few strike outs. A long way away but encouraging to see.
  3. jorgenswest
    Thanks. He really is a great story. I think he gets a shot at those early starts with Pineda and Hill out and makes it hard for the Twins to take him out of the rotation when they return. Keeping hitters off balance and sequencing are key for him. He is going to throw his off speed and breaking stuff more than half the time. They have got to get that mix right.
  4. jorgenswest
    Ryu is the one top pitcher that the Twins could have signed and they failed to recognize it early enough. Had they gone after him first they might have signed him at better than 4/80 but even late they could have gone 4/90 and signed him. I get the arguments that It would be a mistake to sign Ryu to 4/90. I don’t buy the arguments that no one would come to Minnesota. The Twins need to do a better job of identifying that player early before they are they have the leverage of the last remaining option in free agency.
  5. jorgenswest
    If they want to move the needle with infield defense it has to come at SS or 2B. Sano is below average at 3B but the volume of plays at 3B is much less than up the middle.
  6. jorgenswest
    I want those probabilities of success high enough that it is going to take a top prospect. Who is the best pitcher we can get for Larnach or Kirilloff? Can we do better than Archer? Can we get Ray? Is his one year better than Archer’s two? I am not looking to win the deal. I am just looking to get the best pitcher and if the best pitcher I can get is Archer I would pay up.
  7. jorgenswest
    I agree. I also think the cost for any pitcher worthy of the rotation is going to be way too much. If Archer has the ability to help the rotation and start a playoff game then the cost of Larnach is a small one. If Archer isn’t enough to help in the playoffs then I don’t want him at any cost.
  8. jorgenswest
    Are we ready to deal for Archer if we have to give up Larnach?
  9. jorgenswest
    Yes. Ryu would have taken the Donaldson money 4/90. The others have compelling arguments that they had a particular team they were focused on but not Ryu. He could have been a Twin. Even if the Twins thought Donaldson was a better way to spend this money they should have known that he was using them to drive up Atlanta's offer.
  10. jorgenswest
    Garver and Arraez are both very patient seeing over 4 pitches per plate appearance. I would use both of them depending on the starting pitcher.
  11. jorgenswest
    Feels like a fair trade but I think the Tigers could get quite a bit more. Trading for starting pitching is going to hurt. This one doesn't hurt too much.
  12. jorgenswest
    Gonsalves was a 50 prospect after 2017 and entered his first full AAA season in 2018. He walked 55 in 100 innings that year. Like many prospects he rating dropped as he hit the upper levels He was injured all of 2019. This 2017 AA numbers are pretty far back in the rear view mirror in order to commit a 40 man spot. Thorpe, on the other hand, was a 40 prospect the three years before that improved to 45 with his first full season in AAA. That trend is encouraging.
  13. jorgenswest
    I really respect Seth's knowledge and here is his take... I would trade from pitching from their strength in outfield prospects in Kirilloff, Larnach, Rooker and Lewis.
  14. jorgenswest
    They do look similar by the numbers but Gonsalves is 89-90 with the fastball and didn’t generate swings and misses in his short stay. I don’t know the AAA numbers but it is hard to imagine they were anywhere near Thorpe’s swing and miss rate, I think Gonsalves would have been the first one up last year had he remained healthy and lost his best shot at an opportunity.
  15. jorgenswest
    If they do make a trade it is going to be too much. That is the premium cost for starting pitching. Expect it. The deal is not going to feel fair. Larnach is a sell high candidate that can be the main piece of a deal for Ray or Alcantara or several of the others. He is valuable to most teams because he looks ready to arrive this season. Rosario is most valuable to a contending team with a need in left field. He is more valuable to the Twins than most of these trade partners.
  16. jorgenswest
    I think you are spot on with what it would take to get an established pitcher. The Twins might lose all of these deals but starting pitching is a premium and if you don’t develop it you need to pay up in players or dollars.
  17. jorgenswest
    Yes. It will impact the roster and the need for an extra pitcher. I think it will help the development where longer stays in AAA will allow them to work on the pitches that will help them be successful. In Thorpe's case he needs a better change up to keep right handed hitters off balance.
  18. jorgenswest
    Thorpe used 4 pitches when he arrived last year. His slider is a major league plus pitch. His four seamer will play with his slider. The change up is the concern. He used it almost exclusively against right handed batters and it was not effective. If he goes to the minors it would be for the express purpose of developing that change up to help keep right handed batters off balance. I hope that is something that can be accomplished this spring. If there is any glimmer of hope in that change up I would have in the rotation until Pineda returns.
  19. jorgenswest
    Martin Perez has a dominant cutter last year until he didn’t and couldn’t get it back. If Bailey struggles look to the effectiveness of his splitter. If effective give him some rope. If not cut ties.
  20. jorgenswest
    If we get to the trade deadline and Bailey is a better than league average pitcher as Perez did last year I will be pleased. Of course Perez was at an age where he was in the prime of his career so there may have been more reason for encouragement and too much patience with his two awful starts to begin August. Morrison was nowhere near a league average player nor was he 28. Perez was a poor pitcher after the trade deadline but articles about his fall came well into the second half. Andrew Thames wrote one for TD in August 11 and szymborski and Fangraphs had one August 12. The Twins might have pulled the plug August 12 but this was not the season long struggle of Morrison. I don’t see that comparison and I really hope we get league average pitching from Bailey that we saw from Perez through July.
  21. jorgenswest
    For most I think it is a preference to play in Arizona or Philadelphia or New York or Washington or Atlanta. They are all making more money than they will ever spend. It is clear to me they would focus on a place they want to move their family. I would. No player is going to say I didn’t want to play somewhere. Why would they? Of the pitchers I think the Twins could have won the Ryu deal. I don’t think he was particularly focused on Toronto or anywhere. His home isn’t here. They could have offered him 4/90 and committed a rotation spot and significant fraction of budget for the next four years. I think I would have made that offer. I do prefer Donaldson at a similar contract but I think he is waiting on Atlanta to add a fourth year and using Minnesota and Washington to get that deal. Even if Atlanta doesn’t step up I think he goes to Washington who will probably match anything Minnesota offers. I wouldn’t have wanted to wait on Donaldson and lose Ryu so I would have made Ryu the offer and gamble he will remain a playoff caliber pitcher the next four years,
  22. jorgenswest
    I think the bar will be set by the other 4 pitchers. If they are out pitching him I think they stay in the rotation.
  23. jorgenswest
    Cave will get better but we might not see it in numbers if they are a BABIP inflated. Moreland will decline. Moreland needs a platoon partner and has no positional flexibility. He is a part time 1B only. I would bet on the in house options that include Cave in spite of the BABIP. Your point is a good one though. Baseball Prospectus factors in things like BABIP and as a result Moreland’s DRC+ is better than Cave’s the last two years but not as good as a Cron over the two years. I think we agree that the in house options are preferable to Moreland and I join your concern about Cave’s BABIP.
  24. jorgenswest
    With the late adds of Pineda and then Hill there will be constant competition and early opportunity for the young pitchers. Bailey has 8 starts to show that he is a step above Thorpe, Dobnak, Graterol or Smeltzer? He is going to need to start strong. Last year Perez started strong. Even at the trade deadline his ERA was sitting above league average at 4.38. In his three starts between the all star break and trade deadline two of them were quality starts with a poor start against the Yankees but no one had a good start in the series. The wheels came off in his first two August starts. It would be a good signing if Bailey hits the trade deadline above league average. I am hoping that one of the young pitchers does even better and the bar is set higher to stay in the rotation.
  25. jorgenswest
    Are we sure Moreland is a better hitter than Jake Cave? They have almost identical OPS over the last two years with Cave the slight edge at .795. You might need to platoon with Cave but Moreland is already a platoon 1B. Why not put Cave in the line up until one of Larnach, Kirilloff or Rooker is ready? I would play Cave at 1B this spring but Kepler is an alternative there. Cave hasn’t played 1B but there is a lot of time in spring to give he and the three others time at 1B. They might go with a Cave/Rooker platoon and send Astudillo to AAA. Go big and sign Donaldson here or stay in house.
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