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KirbyDome89

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Everything posted by KirbyDome89

  1. KirbyDome89
    Correa was a FA signing; that's an automatic overpay. Using a contract Polanco negotiated to buy out arbitration years as a baseline for 3-4 WAR production isn't remotely fair. Fangraphs also has the cost per WAR in FA this year at $8.5M, so if Correa gets to that 4 WAR mark the Twins are essentially getting what they paid for. I also expected more from Correa to this point, but I wouldn't call him a big disappointment.
  2. KirbyDome89
    Me too, and it's because the second part of that sentence doesn't seem to be happening. Maybe (hopefully) this is the absolute low point, but is there any young pitcher that could be up this year or next that you feel great about right now? Maybe the kid they just drafted, a few tearing up A ball, but the group that was supposed to be breaking through this year has largely fallen apart. They've certainly done better in trades, mostly because they seem to target higher end arms that way. I'd stop short of calling Maeda a very good acquisition; he was great for 11 starts in a short '20, pretty bad last year and then injured, he'll miss most if not all of this season, and he'll be a 35 year old starter trying to bounce back from TJ next year. Maybe he kills it next year; it's not like Graterol has been a monster for LA either, so I'd certainly make a Kenta-esque trade again. There has to be a balance, and the FO needs to adapt in order to maintain that equilibrium. I think that's laregely been a failure on the pitching front.
  3. KirbyDome89
    I wouldn't call it weak, I still expect them to win the division when it's all said and done. In fairness that has a lot to do with how little faith I have in CHI or CLE getting their s*** together, but yeah, perspective is important. Agreed, I see the low tier posts creeping into threads too, but there's some of the aforementioned perspective being lost if we're calling out a lack of positivity in single game threads right now.
  4. KirbyDome89
    They have the 2nd worst pitching staff in baseball over the last month and they've been a sub .500 club struggling to tread water in an awful division since late May. How much good will are you expecting to find in some of these threads?
  5. KirbyDome89
    The final score doesn't really show it, but the bullpen was pretty awful again tonight. Megill was bailed out by that dead ball play, Pagan once again allowed multiple base runners during a single inning of work, and Duffey did his best to give up a 6 run lead.
  6. KirbyDome89
    A high end number to illustrate his lack of iron man status.
  7. KirbyDome89
    Did it? "I don't view Ober as a 2/3 at all, regardless, he's a near lock to miss time with injuries." This year will his third time in four professional seasons he'll finish with an innings total in the 70s or lower. That's part time even by today's standard but let's argue semantics.
  8. KirbyDome89
    I guess we'll just ignore the fact he's frequently unavailable, i.e. the point being made.
  9. KirbyDome89
    The bargain bin SP signings (Archer and Bundy) haven't worked out. Pagan and Paddack were rebound candidates; Pagan hasn't and we know the Paddack story. I don't view Ober as a 2/3 at all, regardless, he's a near lock to miss time with injuries. Did they expect 150ish innings from him? The rest of that pen...woof. Staff construction was shaky from the jump. Then there's the pipeline, i.e. the reinforcements that were supposed to be pushing some of the projects aside. That's been a disaster. Hope, misplaced confidence, oversight, call it what you want, the reality is they gambled on 3/5 of the rotation + a contingency plan revolving around prospects, and neither have really shown up. Lucky for them they play in the AL Central because there's a decent chance they'd be selling if they were in any other division.
  10. KirbyDome89
    I'm suggesting this team desperately needs established major league pitching for this season and beyond. You need to give in order to receive; only parting with potential 40 man casualties and clinging to depreciating assets isn't the remedy. They decided to cross their fingers and hope this year, that can't be the approach again, especially with what's going on with the pitching prospects. Failing to recognize and/or capitalize on opportunities is another great way to show yourself out.
  11. KirbyDome89
    Thats the beauty of playing in the AL Central in 2022; you can be incredibly flawed and still lead the division...
  12. KirbyDome89
    So count on Ober to suddenly shake the injuries and give you 150 innings? Paddack is available for half the year at best, Maeda turns 35, and we're banking on both immediately post TJ? Which version of Alcala are they getting? Winder was just shut down again with a shoulder issue that has persisted for a year now. Sure, we can call Dobnak and Smeltzer depth, but the reality is they're AAAA guys, at least as starters. Ideally the depth would come from the much hyped pipeline, but ahhh yeah, we've seen how that has looked to this point. Essentially you have them shuffling the deck chairs + the FO committing big money/years to a front line SP. It just feels like asking for disappointment on both fronts. "Not horrible," shouldn't be the bar to clear for a starting SS on a team that's looking to compete. The Twins need to sign an actual SS, at least for the year. The plan can't be to hold water and hope Lewis can take over midseason after recovering from his 2nd torn ACL. The off chance that 6+ players hit their absolute best case scenario next year doesn't seem like a viable reason to stand pat and not improve an obviously flawed, but division leading team this year.
  13. KirbyDome89
    Or effective. This is the 3rd time in less than a year Winder has been shut down with a shoulder issue. It seems unlikely to resolve itself without intervention. Maeda is going to be 35 next season post TJ, and he wasn't exactly lighting it up before getting injured in August. Paddack was a reclamation project of sorts prior to TJ. We're holding onto 20ish innings to close last season as the "real," Alcala vs. his erratic 40ish innings to start the year.
  14. KirbyDome89
    Why are we assuming the FO is currently willing to pay market rate and not hunting value? The Reds could certainly be overplaying their hand, but this FO isn't exactly aggressive when it comes to paying for arms.
  15. KirbyDome89
    These same Twins were also 11 games over .500 at one point. Yeah, they've been treading water for the last 2 months but Cleveland and Chicago have been 2-4, 3-4, and 4-3 all year. What about either of those two teams suggests they'll pull off a run like MN did to start the year? Don't get me wrong, the Twins have plenty of warts and I have my own reservations, but I just don't understand the faith some seem to have in either CLE or especially CHI suddenly getting their s*** together enough to take over the division.
  16. KirbyDome89
    I think people are just being realistic about what Ober is, a back end rotation guy when healthy. That's ok, and you're right, if the Twins find that out of nowhere (not a prospect on the radar) that's a W, but his inability to stay on the field from his time in college to now severely limits that upside. Right now last season's 100 inning mark looks like the exception, or at least the max, and even then it goes unmentioned he was hurt to finish the year too. Ober doesn't get the same benefit of the doubt as uber prospects (think Buxton) because his ceiling isn't something the Twins are incapable of acquiring outside of the organization.
  17. KirbyDome89
    Backup QB syndrome. What's funny is that his most glaring issue, an inability to stay on the field, doesn't seem to ding that perceived value much. Pitching starved fanbase yada yada, but Pineda looks like an iron man in comparison.
  18. KirbyDome89
    You feel great about guys like Povich or Festa being major contributors, or are they just next on the list? This is what, year 5 as a pro and year 4 playing for SWR? Yeah, he's young and I'm not advocating for giving up on the guy, but he's struggling during a repeat of AA after being shut down because he was performing so poorly last year. If you're not going to commit to high end pitching then you need to be developing it, at least semi consistently.
  19. KirbyDome89
    How far are we stretching the definition of pipeline? Smeltzer? Ryan spending a couple weeks in St. Paul? Failed starters turned relievers? It's been Ryan with a dash of Winder and a guest appearance from Ober (33 IP in 4 months because he's hurt...again) as far as young starting contributions go. All the higher end farm arms have been some combination of poor/injured. Yeah, I expected more when the FO decided to hinge this season on said pipeline.
  20. KirbyDome89
    The acceptable, absolute minimum is probably 2 relief arms that slot above Jax and below Duran. If some want to argue a starter is a must as well I'm not going to fight it. I think we'll get one decent reliever and one reclamation project that'll be talked up. I'll be really surprised if any type of impact starter is acquired. Jeffers had a 4 game stretch with 7 hits in mid June and a nice series against TX where he put up 5 hits in 2 games. Between that it was more of what we watched all season. Basically, without those 2 Rangers games, he's still a guy struggling to stay above the Mendoza line with an OPS in danger of dipping below .600. Word seems to be out about his inability to control runners as well. Would I rather have him than Hamilton? Yes, but Jeffers is already at or near the bottom third of an awful cohort when it comes to production, so I think it's fair to question just how severe the loss is.
  21. KirbyDome89
    What pitching prospects (I'm not counting Ryan) do the Twins have that you feel great about right now? I'm asking honestly. Balazovic is a mess, SWR regressed quickly after a nice start and he's hurt, and Canterino looks destined for a bullpen role after getting hurt again this year. Guys like Varland, Sands, ect are probably pen pieces. Something could break right there, but I wouldn't hold my breath. I doubt Oakland has much interest in Ober. He's been injury prone since his collegiate career began, he's thrown 33 innings this year, and his ceiling is back end rotation piece. He's likely worth more to MN than anyone else at this point. I'm not marking Montas as the guy, but the pitching outlook doesn't match a lot of the hype it has gotten. Those guys were supposed to be depth this year too, and most of them have been to injured/ineffective to be relied on a la last year. I wouldn't be too afraid to spend some of that currency on a rotation staple is what I'm saying.
  22. KirbyDome89
    It could be well into August or even September before we see Ober. Last I saw he was cleared for upper body workouts and hadn't even started throwing yet. He's going to have to get through a throwing program, and then multiple rehab starts. Availability was an issue with him, and here we are. He's going to throw 33 innings in 4-5 months. Winder is in AAA (would love to see that change) but the rest of the minor leagues arms have been some combo of hurt/bad. We can call it a pipeline, but what kind of flow are we getting?
  23. KirbyDome89
    Have you seen this division?
  24. KirbyDome89
    He was terrible last year with a BB/9 half of what it is this year, but regression on that front is the solution? So just hope hitters stop pissing on his cutter, hope the fastball starts to play up, hope he start throwing the splitter for strikes consistently instead of burying it in the dirt? It's likely the Twins need to win the division to punch a postseason ticket. There's literally no reason they should continue to let Pagan actively damage their chance of doing so on the off chance his command suddenly returns and he goes from DFA candidate/negative asset to simply a bad relief option they can maybe hide. It's not even remotely worth it.
  25. KirbyDome89
    1. He's throwing hard, and subsequently allowing a HardHit% in line with his awful SD years. His velo isn't so high that he can overpower hitters a la Duran. His fastball has a 140 wRC+ and .348 wOBA; pretty pedestrian. 2. Yep, the splitter is a plus pitch, but it's his only one. As a relief arm you can certainly survive with that, but you have to be able to locate.... 3. What he did three years ago in TB is irrelevant, especially since he's been a disaster each year since leaving. This isn't even a case for improvement; it's some weird footnote. I'd argue that margin for error disappears when you're allowing baserunners at the rate Pagan is, and the ball continues to find its way over the fence. None of the three points address Pagan's inability to command the strike zone; it starts and stops there.
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