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gil4

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Everything posted by gil4

  1. gil4
    I mostly agree with what you wrote, except for your take on Radke. That 20-win season was not his "one good year." His ERA was at least 15% better than league average five times (ERA+ of 136, 135, 120, 116, 115.) He had three more that were 10% better (114, 111, 110). Just looking at his raw ERA doesn't give a great indication because he was pitching in a era that favored the hitters. I will grant that Radke never received or deserved a Cy Young award, but then Perry really should have been no higher than 3rd in 1970 (McDowell, Palmer.) Radke's career ERA+ was 113, the exact same as Perry's was with the Twins. Radke did it while pitching about 570 more innings (2450 - 1880). I'd take Radke over Perry.
  2. gil4
    And the hitting is their strong suit. 😒
  3. gil4
    I had to read the article to see if that was supposed to be a good thing. Let's call it damning with faint praise.
  4. gil4
    Positive WAR just means they are better than the average AAAA guy you can call up to replace him. I believe 2 WAR is the guideline for a good starter.
  5. gil4
    I think you are underestimating what a crapshoot it really is. I looked at all the R1 #21 picks from 2007 - 2021. The average career WAR for that group is 0.92. That's Brice Turang (2018) at 11.8 and everyone else adding a combined 2.1. The Twins' one contribution, Alex Wimmers in 2010, is one of the "success" stories - tied for 5th with 0.2 WAR. I will concede that some of the more recent selections will likely add to their WAR totals, but anyone selected #21 from 2016 and prior is either done or likely to have a negative WAR if someone uses them in an emergency. I will also concede that my data selection accidentally skewed the data toward my point. I selected 2021 as a start to allow the player to get to the majors, then went back for a total of 15 seasons. Once I figured out I could just list all #21 overall picks, rather than going year-by-year and looking at the #21 pick that year, I saw that the 2006 and 2005 (just outside my data set) were pretty good - Ian Kennedy (16.9 WAR) and Cliff Pennington (9.9). Then we don't get another pick who was near or over 10 WAR until Jake Westbrook in 1996, so I'd say my point is still valid. The #21 pick is a crapshoot. Heck, 1/1 is a crapshoot, but on a different level. The average WAR for the top pick in that time period is 18.85. It's reasonable to have expectations if you draft #1. At #21, it's more wish and hope than expectation.
  6. gil4
    All those throws he bounced weren't splitters? Are you sure?
  7. gil4
    I only half pay attention to Rule 5, so I only remember one previous time the Twins did it. They gave away the top pick in the draft, up-and-coming star Jared Camp, to the Marlins for the #2 pick, for some guy who probably never amounted to anything, Johan Somethingorother. And cash. At least they got the cash.
  8. gil4
    ? Did you leave in Dec 2023 when they announced budget cuts and just drop in tonight for the first time since then? I'm usually the guy in August thinking all we need is a 15 game winning streak to get back to .500 and then we keep going from there, but even I am feeling a bit jaded by the state of affairs with the Twins.
  9. gil4
    In 2008, the Air Force sent me to Altus, Oklahoma. The local JUCO team - Western Oklahoma State College - was really good, led by star SS Andrelton Simmons, They also had a star OF/P combo named Almonte. I thought, "That can't be THAT Almonte, can it?" It was. He played two years at WOSC and hit nearly .500 both years with a total of 32 HR. He also pitched, and his W-L record over two years was 16-1. That's the only stat I have on his pitching (Wikipedia), and it's one stat that can be easy to pad when you're on a regional power that plays pretty variable competition. I drove past their field many times, including some when games were going on, but I regret that I never actually went to a game.
  10. gil4
    Let me help:
  11. gil4
    Google AI says yes, but if that was true, I think I would have found some confirmation of it somewhere (or I would have at least heard of the guy before today.) My guess is the AI is about as accurate with this as it is with NFHS baseball rules. (It's useless.)
  12. gil4
    has earned him another opportunity to guide a AAAA club.
  13. gil4
    Attendance increases tend to follow success, and as Schmoeman5 pointed out, that success was really just late August, September, and the first round of the playoffs. They had an opportunity after 2023 to build on that success, and it wouldn't have taken much. Instead, they chose to alienate their most loyal fans by slashing payroll. If they had tried and failed it would have been forgivable. They chose to not try.
  14. gil4
    Is .727 in MLB at age 28 better than .840 in AAA at age 22? At age 22, Larnach had an ,842 OPS split between A+ and AA. He had 361 PA in A=, 181 in AA, and the same OPS at both levels. Which one would have a higher OPS in 2025? Flip a coin. (ZIPS like Rodriguez.)
  15. gil4
    Never heard him sing. He's just OK at tap-dancing despite a lot of practice. (Timing still isn't great.)
  16. gil4
    He has been pretty good. And we might have been able to get a bucket of baseballs for him at the deadline, too. Maybe two buckets.
  17. gil4
    That was a rough blown save. It has been a long rain delay in the bottom of the 9th that they could have avoided.
  18. gil4
    That might not be so bad. Maybe they can meet up at Squirrel's place and watch 1987 and 1991 World Series replays.
  19. gil4
    They want back to Apple Valley and got a couple of younger guys in hopes that Ms. Magnuson (class of 2012) wouldn't recognize them, So far, so good. Travis Adams (class of 2018) and Mick Abel (2019) haven't been busted yet. That road construction thing might have helped, along with stashing Abel across the river for now.
  20. gil4
    I remember having his baseball card, but I don't remember what happened to him, other than a high draft pick turned into a mediocre pitcher. What were the symptoms of that disease?
  21. gil4
    I'd really like to see the Mets decide they need a lefty and the Cubs decide they need a righty so they could trade one brother for the other. (I know, deadline has passed.)
  22. gil4
    The Yankees-Marlins played a wild one last night. The Yankees were up 6-0 in the 5th. The Marlins kept chipping away, even taking a 10-9 lead. In the top of the 9th, the Yankees took a 12-10 lead. Then they showed that maybe they should have upped the ante to get Duran or Jax, because their new gut Doval coughed up 3 runs in the bottom of the 9th, with help from a brutal error by new RF Jose Caballero. The Pirates and Rockies said "Hold my Coors Light and watch this." Pittsburgh scored 9 in the top of the first. The Rockies chipped away and the Pirates kept answering, and the score was 16-10 heading to the 8th. The Rockies got two in the bottom of the 8th on Yanquiel Fernández' first career HR, cutting the lead to 4. The bottom of the 9th started with a K, but then it went HR, walk, triple, single, and a walk-off HR by light-hitting CF Brenton Doyle. Dugan Darnell, making his first MLB appearance at age 28, pitched a scoreless 8th and 9th to get a memorable win. You don't see slugfests like this all that often, and having two games on the same day turn into slow-pitch softball scores is crazy.
  23. gil4
    My brother went to their game at Clemson (sold out 81,000+ seats.) He said it was a lot of fun. His wife said it was maybe a bit too much to absorb. I like seeing their clips on YouTube. Definitely entertaining, but I wouldn't spend $300-$400 per ticket (or even $100.)
  24. gil4
    France wasn't exactly a high-dollar signing. Was there even a dime left on his contract?
  25. gil4
    Just looking on TickPick for tomorrow's game - lots of 300-level seats available for $25 or less. Or you can get really good seats for $50 - $60.
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