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gil4

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Everything posted by gil4

  1. gil4
    I'm not sure how well WAR compares across generations. For example, I don't think Ruth was THAT much better than Williams (183.8 vs. 123.2). I think that with the larger talent pool and improved training methods, the difference between the best and replacement level has been shrinking over time. I know there are more teams, but the increased population, the integration or the game, and internationalization have more than offset it. Another (bigger) problem is career WAR is basically as counting stat. Looking at who would be in vs who would be out should give you some pause. If Jeter retires now, he's out. Berra' out. Koufax is out - he's in line behind Jimmy Key, Jamie Moyer, and Kenny Rogers. If your methodology says Koufax should be waiting in line behind Kenny Rogers to get into the Hall, you need a new methodology.
  2. gil4
    I want fries. I want a lot of them. I want them to be awesome. And I want them now. Is that too much to ask? (OK, don't answer that.)
  3. gil4
    When it comes down to it, he has been a great player. As much as we'd love every year to be like 2009 for him, he has still been very productive even when hitting 10 HRs.
  4. gil4
    Some might be language barrier. Some might be caused by stuff being normal/legal/widely available at home but not permitted by the US and/or MLB.
  5. gil4
    Really, I think that's enough. Fat players tend to decline early and suddenly, like George Scott, Mo Vaughn, and his dad. David Ortiz seems to be a decent counter-example, but I'm not sure he is in the same class of fat. I can't think of any others, but really there aren't that many fat players, period. (Pitchers are different.)
  6. gil4
    Learn something new every day. Was the change before or after 2007? (Just in case someone knows without looking - I'm not totally helpless and will try to find it too.)
  7. gil4
    I'm pretty sure that once he stays on the 25-man for a year (even on the DL) there is no obligation to offer him back.
  8. gil4
    Closest I can come is Pavano.
  9. gil4
    Hudson got $23M/2 years. I'd say a good starting point for Arroyo is less than that - I saw 2 yrs/$19M somewhere and thought it sounded reasonable.
  10. gil4
    I couldn't read " Hardy deal" and "ill advised" without having the gut reaction that you are being far too kind. The Twins have made some bone-headed personnel moves, but that one still makes me want to type words that that would get me banned. We finally had an above-average SS, and management didn't even realize it. Instead of looking to extend him, they dumped him for garbage. (Just to clarify - Mrs Hoey, in the unlikely event you're reading this, yes, I called your son garbage. I only did so because I didn't want to use the words that would get me banned that I mentioned in the previous paragraph.) I at least understood the Ortiz move at the time. I knew he had some disagreement with the coaching staff, but I had no idea he could be that good.
  11. gil4
    I think Hendricks is out of options and has to be up or waived. Despite his performance so far, I doubt he clears waivers. Did DeVries sign a minor-league contract with the Twins? I thought he was gone.
  12. gil4
    I don't know how open he was to returning, but players are usually a lot less open to returning after you trade them mid-season. Last off-season someone asked if I would have given the 2 yr/$14 mil deal to Liriano and I said I would. I knew there was risk, but the potential upside is still higher than what we saw last year. He was a maddeningly inconsistent electric talent - I'd rather roll the dice with that than with consistent mediocrity. I remember what he was like that first year and I didn't see anything that ruled out the possibility of a return to that level. I also liked the idea of Bobby Cuellar as the bullpen coach because I thought I remembered reading that he had he played a key role in the success of both Liriano and Santana, and his presence might have increased the likelihood of Liriano's re-signing.
  13. gil4
    Teams have always had to weigh AJ's personality vs. his performance. The Ozzie Guillen quote "If you play against him, you hate him. If you play with him, you hate him a little less." is a classic. (I still hate Ozzie more than AJ.) Hopefully the personality has mellowed with age, because the performance isn't what it used to be. If it was up to me, I'd pass.
  14. gil4
    Is Dodger Stadium still and extreme pitcher's park? His ERA+ was 84, which isn't good. That said, the past 6 years it has been 113, 87, 102, 81, 102, 84. Based on the pattern, we should sign him to either a 1 or 3 year deal. Maybe we can sign him to a 2-year deal with the stipulation that he take a sabbatical in 2015, since he should do something other than pitch during odd years.
  15. gil4
    You did mean left-handed pitching, right?
  16. gil4
    Deduno's shoulder surgery worries me. I know his agent says it went well and he should be 100% for the spring, but that's what they always say. Worley and Diamond were supposed to be 100% last year, and we saw how that went. (Granted, that might have been 100%, especially for Diamond.)
  17. gil4
    When you double-post something like that, it's time to bring the bug back.
  18. gil4
    He didn't seem to need that shoulder to keep pitching. What he was able to do that final year was amazing, considering he probably couldn't even comb his hair without pain meds.
  19. gil4
    He's sixteen now - not allowed to admit it.
  20. gil4
    If we can get some pitchers to cover a few positions on their off-days we probably wouldn't lose too much on offense
  21. gil4
    Wasn't Guerra in a free agent who agreed to come back on a minor league deal last year?
  22. gil4
    I can't remember the details, but I remember thinking the same thing a little over 20 years ago. I hope he had his middle name legally changed to that.
  23. gil4
    I just want to add that it wasn't a Tommy Herr situation where he hated us and we hated him. Smiley was a damn good pitcher and I think most of us would have been happy to have him stick around. He had a down year after he got paid, but then he came back and was good again for three years before his arm fell off. Using ERA+, his best year was with the Twins.
  24. gil4
    He was great through June - 8-2, 2.60 ERA, in 16 starts. He was then horrible in July and August and then was traded for Darren Reed, a pinch-non-hitter (.182/.216/.242 with the Twins, basically in line with his numbers in his brief career.) If Krueger had kept pitching like he had been, the Twins might have stayed in the race. (They fell out of first for good in early August.) Of course, if he was capable of sustaining that success, he wouldn't have been available as a scrap-heap pickup in the first place. It was an exciting season until it fell apart. Smiley was a one-year rental the whole way. IIRC, he wasn't happy with the trade and wasn't happy to be with the Twins, and there was zero possibility of re-signing him.
  25. gil4
    Any ailment is scary for a pitcher who is effective due to a fastball with unusual, unexplained movement. The best parallel I can remember is Scott Erickson - he was on his way to a Cy Young award, tweaked his elbow, missed a couple starts, and was never the same again. His heavy, sinking fastball that moved all over the place lost a lot of his movement. He spent the next few years trying to learn to pitch with the Twins and was finally adequate again for a few years with the O's.
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