mike8791
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A heavyweight name weighs in on Twins FO and organization
mike8791 commented on Greglw3's blog entry in Greg Allen
Wow! Highly unusual, yet very refreshing, to see this critique from a well-respected ex-Twin. Wish that more ex - Twin icons would do the same. Someone has to light a fire under Pohlad to move him off first base. Why can't season ticket holders unite and apply some pressure where it would really hurt - in Jim's pocketbook? I have never seen such a smug, arrogant group as Falvey/Levine since I started rooting for the Senator/Twins in the early 50's. Pseudo know-it-alls who know nothing about the game. At least Ryan had excellent scouting abilities. These guys have spreadsheets! -
Brock, can understand your comments on "holy overpay" to Miami but as Ashbury said, you are going to have to overpay for a "top" ML pitcher. Lacking in offense, but loaded with pitching, Miami is an obvious partner. Reportedly, their biggest need is catching, followed closely by offense. I listed Arraez because his offense is apparent, yet on Twins he really has no obvious position. Next, I think Miami would prefer a young catcher like Jeffers and that's fine with me if Twins can accept Garver's defense and think Rortvedt is a decent backup. In any case, I'm trying to trade from Twins "strength", i.e., corner OF/2B/C . Getting Alcantara might be a pipe dream but he's the type of young, cost-controlled pitcher this team should be looking at.. The only chance to land him, IMO, is to give up a couple of major leaguers. Throw in one of our top prospects and perhaps we could add another Miami pitcher like Edward Cabrera, Sixto Sanchez or Max Meyer - all of whom are currently rated in the top 50 MLB prospect list. I view SS as primarily a defense-first position, which is why Simmons would be a decent, albeit less than ideal, solution for the 2022 position. I do not want Polanco as our full-time SS. He fits much better at 2B. My hope is that out of the multiple prospects( Lewis, Miranda, Palacios, or Martin) , Twins can find a starting SS in 2023. Sure I'd like to see one of the FAs on board, but even with a stretched $150MM budget, with all our pitching needs, there is no money left for a premium SS. This "plan" could only happen if the Twins really intended to at least attempt to contend in 2022. Pohlad needs to open up the checkbook and Falvine would have to shed their severe risk-aversion and swing for the fences. It's unlikely, I know, but not impossible.
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Good point!! Forgot to add that I was offered joint titles?! It was a truly wonderful dream!
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Woke up in a sweat last nite. Dreamt that Jim Pohlad called and offered me the Twins GM job the day after the 2021 season ended. While I was overcome with excitement, before accepting the position, I had 3 demands: 1. I would be able to fire Rocco and his staff. Would look for a veteran, old school manager like Buck Showalter or Bruce Boche. Maybe even James Rowson or (gasp!!) Ozzie Guillen?? 2. JP had to agree to resign BB to the 7 year/$80MM contract agreed on plus whatever game-played incentives Bux's agent wanted(within reason of course) 3. JP reiterated to return team to relevancy in 2022 and thus, would expand next year's payroll budget to $150MM. We agreed on all of the above with one caveat : I had to provide him with a specific action plan for the offseason. Here's my outline: 1. Sign a potential #1 starter. First choice - Noah Syndergaard. Backup : Carlos Rodon(this add would not only likely fill our #1 spot, but also weaken our chief competitor) 2. Trade with Miami for a potential #2 starter, e.g., Sandy Alcantara or Pablo Lopez. The Marlins in desperate need for offensive help could pick 2 out of Arraez, Jeffers/Garver, Kepler, Larnach. 3. If Maeda was healthy, he would slot in as #3. If not, resign Pineda or a comparable veteran pitcher with a successful track record. 4. The #4/5 spots in the rotation would be open competition among Ober/Ryan/ Strotman/ Balozavic/ Winder/Dobnak . Two of these should be no worse than Happ/Shoe with the likelihood that one or two would at least be league average. 5. I would sign a real closer. First choice - Craig Kimbrel. He has arguably been one of the three best relievers this year with a nice bonus that his absence would weaken the Sox. 6. A second proven late-inning pen arm would be signed, mainly one of the following: Rosenthal/Hand/ Yates, If not feasible then Taylor Rogers, followed by one of Duffy/Thielbar/ Alcala, would round out the top 3. I think guys like Gant, Albers, Minaya, and Garza might do well in lower pressure situations. 7. Recognizing we have a big hole at SS, I would try to resign Simmons for less money. If he signs elsewhere, then Polanco would be shifted, with one of Arraez/Miranda/ Martin taking his place at 2B. Sorry, no money for one of the top FA SSs. Let's cross our fingers Lewis is ready in 2023. 8. Not sure yet of all my deletions from the 40 man, but I would begin with Rooker, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Cave, Colome, Gordon. My bench would include Turtle(assuming Garver or Jeffers moved) Rorvedt,, Refsnyder, Celestino and Miranda. Assuming we've started with an $85-90MM payroll, we have added #20MM for Thor or Rodon, $10MM for Pineda of #3 veteran, approx. $10MM in extra incentives for Buxton, $15MM for Kimbrel, and $10MM for a second bullpen arm, Tight but doable thanks to the open wallet of Mr. P. So is this plan realistic? Would this revised team be expected to compete as soon as next year? Help me out here, guys!! I'm new to all this.
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2022 team is mostly set up at this point
mike8791 commented on Brandon's blog entry in Brandon's Blog
Brandon, hate to say it, but yes, title of article is quite misleading. I'm fairly confident you are not saying that if we mainly relied on current roster plus some top prospects that this team could be anywhere near competitive next year. Management has indicated they do not intend to rebuild, but instead, retool so that next year we can at least pretend to contend. No way in hell is this happening unless major additions are made this offseason. Otherwise, expect a 100 loss season in 2022 and a long wait for real contention in the ensuing years. You can drive a few 24 wheelers thru all the holes in this current roster. That's just reality! -
Week in Review: A (Familiar) Bronx Tale
mike8791 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agree with you Nick. Kepler can no longer be viewed as a key piece on a rebuilding team. We've seen enough. If the FO had any vision(a big if!), he would be packaged in a trade for a young starter on a rebuilding team. Miami is an obvious choice - deep in pitching, woeful in offense. Kepler, maybe Arraez, and top 20 minor league prospect for one of their starters. Nice thing about such a trade is that it would open up an OF or 2B position for Martin and Miranda next year. Let's face facts. Twins are not going to contend next year(unless ownership opens up the checkbook). Time to give our best prospects time to be contributors in 2023. -
Twins Options at Shortstop in 2022
mike8791 replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nice summary, Matt!! Here's my 2 cents: 1. Simmons will not be resigned. There are too many top MI prospects who need ABs next year. 2. If Gordon wasn't a #1 draft pick, he'd be long gone. Can't field well enough at SS and cam't hit well enough at any position. My bet is he'll be DFAed or part of a trade. 3. As you said, neither Miranda or Martin seem to be viewed as SSs going forward. 4. With massive pitching needs, Twins can't afford to spend precious FA dollars on a top SS. This assumes we can take Falvey at his word when he says his goal for 2022 is to return to contention in 2022. This means spending big on FAs, both in the rotation and bullpen. No way we can compete by tring to fill 3-4 rotation spots with prospects. None!! 5. Polanco is best choice for 2022. Yes, our defense will suffer, but we need both his and Arraez's bats in the lineup, at least until Lewis is ready. At that point one of these two should be traded(or, if Lewis can fetch a starter, trade him). I'm afraid we are 3-4 years away from finding a real SS from the minors' lower levels. Name of that individual remains a big question mark. -
In Defense of the Twins Front Office
mike8791 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nick, appreciate your addressing this FO issue head-on! In this trash heap of a season, the only thing we can really look forward to is next year so the abilities of these two guys should be scrutinized. After all, we have almost 5 full seasons at the helm to analyze their performance. While their missteps have been magnified this season, any realistic observer has to acknowledge the lost 2020 season, along with the late minor league start this season, has hampered their development system. So put me in the group acknowledging they should be given one more year to prove their plan is viable. But they must be put on a very short lease. If this team continues their sub .500 play by the All Star break next year, they must be dismissed. We must see some signs that at least some of their draft picks and trade pickups start producing at the big league level. As Gleeman noted in The Athletic, other than Cruz, their FA signings have been failures. Their midseason trades have failed(does anyone still think the Pressley trade was wise?). Their top draft choices have been injury-prone or have fallen short of expectations. With lack of pitching plaguing the Ryan-era teams, why did the Wonder Boys eschew pitchers for position players? They had the #1 choice in 2017 and went for Lewis, who now is not even expected to qualify as a big league SS. I have to question some of their personnel decisions as well. Their first pitching coach, Alston, flamed out. Wes Johnson was a gutsy move, but what pitchers have actually improved since he's been hired? They seem to have struck gold in hiring Rowson, but failed to retain him, then promoted from within two assistants with unproven talent. And the hiring of Rocco was also a head scratcher. No, I'm not ignoring his first 2 season successes, but not only are his in-game decisions head-scratching, but more importantly, his laid back manner, particularly a failure to stress fundamentals, has shown up all too often on the field this season. While he cannot be blamed for the FO's player acquisition failures, does anyone think he has the chops for ending our playoff futility? And finally, let's not overlook ownership's role in this team's failures. Has Pohlad ever stated his only goal is to bring a world championship to the TC? He hires conservative, risk-averting GMs like Ryan and Falvey, both of whom either seem to have the same banker's mentality as Pohlad or just lack the ability found elsewhere on low to mid market clubs that are consistently successful. Sure, let Falvey have another chance here, but give him payroll room to go after some top FAs this offseason and see what he can accomplish. There can be no more excuses for another year of failure. We Twin fans deserve better! -
It's pretty obvious the FO has moved on from Gordon. If he were a legit major league SS, he'd be starting. He's not and his offense is not good enough to keep him up here. As a Chicagoan, have to agree with Bean that Baez has regressed offensively. He's become an all or nothing player. We don't need another one of those! Correa, Seager, or Semien would be a big upgrade in FA. The problem is, if the Twins are really in a retooling rather than rebuilding mode, their need for top of the rotation and a closer preclude signing a top FA SS, unless Pohlad wanted to go all in. By now, we all realize that ain't happening!
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Thanks Lucas! Always look forward to your analyses! As you finish your top 30 list, I have one request: can you ID any SSs now in the Twins system who have the defensive skills to fill that all-important position at the big league level? All the reports I've read, including your #20-30 rankings do not seem to reveal a Grade A SS prospect. We have a surplus of 2B/OF at both the major and minor league levels but so far, no one who seems to be our future SS. I realize it is too soon to predict if any of our younger top prospects will hit at the major league level, but surely we should have some idea whether they have the abilities to be an above average fielder. If the cupboard is bare, then it would seem the FO has to prioritize signing a FA SS this offseason. With all our pitching needs, I hope this is not the case, but if team defense is a priority then what othger choice do we have. Just wondering!! Thanks.
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Week in Review: New-Look Rotation
mike8791 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
With Simmons very disappointing offense, looks like we still have a big hole at SS next year. We have a bunch of middle IFs - Polanco, Arraez, Martin, and maybe in a year, Lewis - but none seem to fit the need for an above average fielder at the most critical position. Polanco makes sense for remainder of this year, but they signed Simmons because Polanco was not good enough at SS. Arraez is certainly not the man and from scattered reports so far, neither Martin or Lewis seems to fit the bill. Both have been mentioned several times as more suited for OF. Kneejerk rx may be to just sign one of the stellar FA SSs coming on the market, but that just seems like a waste of payroll with the need for pitching far more important than SS. Isn't it folly to think that any one of our prospects can slot into any of the top 3 spots in the rotation in 2022? Not to even mention bullpen needs. If Twins really want to return to relevancy in 2022, they must spend some big bucks on pitching - and more importantly, resign Buxton. Those should be top priorities. One way to start sorting out the different pieces might be to bring up Martin to play 3B and move Donaldson to DH. I know that's a real push for Martin but what else does he have to prove at SP? Arraez should stay at 2B and Polanco at SS. One advantage I see is that this move can free up some trade pieces for a solid rotation piece. Arraez, Sano and even Lewis might bring in some real pitching talent. Just speculating, of course, but these next two months must be used to get better clarification on next year, not to recycle players who will not be part on 2022 roster. And that includes pushing Ryan into the rotation and one or two minor league relievers up now, rather than wait for September.- 37 replies
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Starting Over with a New Minimum Floor Rotation and How do the Twins Proceed from There.
mike8791 commented on Brandon's blog entry in Brandon's Blog
http://So how do we turn all of this and other available talent and potential free agent signings into a great rotation that can compete in 2022? This club has too many holes to "compete" in 2022, even if Pohlad opened up his wallet. Realistically, best outcome would be around .500 with an outside chance of competing for a WC. So getting a short term expensive FA like Cueto makes little sense. What makes more sense for a potential contender in 2023 and beyond is to acquire a FA who has shown potential at the big league level to be an ace. Thor stands out here. Acquiring a Stroman or Gausman would be ok, I suppose. It is unlikely any Twin's prospect will jump into a #2 or 3 slot in next 2-3 years, so assuming Maeda takes one of these slots, the FO must decide whether Pineda fits the bill for the other. If not(and that would be my guess) than a trade for an established mid-rotation guy makes added sense. We actually have a surplus of IFs/DH candidates and even at C position with Garver or Jeffers providing catcher-hungry teams with an enticing trade candidate. Such a trade might help alleviate a logjam of Polanco, Arraez, Martin, Lewis and Miranda that seems likely over the next 2-3 years. As for the 4,5 spots in the rotation, these should be left open for two of Jax, Ober, Balozavic, Duffy, SWR, Winder and/or Strotman. If none of these prospects can make the jump, than Falvine should be relegated to the dustbin of history, certainly no later than the end of 2022. Can't even begin to tackle the bullpen woes yet. That's an issue for another column. -
The Dust Has Settled - What's Next, Part 2
mike8791 commented on mike8791's blog entry in mike8791's Blog
CHPettit 19: " http://he Twins are currently tied for 11th in MLB in runs scored. So suggesting the offense can't compete next year seems a little more pessimistic than necessary" Not arguing with these numbers, but I think a few high scoring games( 8 games/96 runs) skews this performance. Those numbers indicate they scored an average of 4 R/G in the other 98. I realize you can say this for any team but the lack of consistent offense has plagued this team. Just too many low scoring affairs where the Twins RISP % was poor. To me this reflects an all or nothing lineup - lots of HRs(3rd in the majors) but can't string together hits. With Cruz gone, Twins offense going forward is still a question mark. At best, this looks like a league average offense, better if some of the newcomers advance, worse if injuries/trades remove Bux and Donaldson from decent ABs. No question pitching dragged this team down more than offense, but neither is at contender level right now. -
The Twins Bought Low on Austin Martin
mike8791 replied to Cody Pirkl's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Just saw a note from Ken Rosenthal on The Athletic that Twins view Martin as a future CF despite not yet having the arm strength for an OF spot. While I, too, am very high on this guy's bat, I am very puzzled by this statement. If Martin is slotted in for CF, where does that leave Buxton? Is this an indication they don't plan on signing Bux? Also, the team's top 2 prospects, Lewis and Martin, are apparently not viewed as big league SSs. Nor are Polanco, Miranda or Arraez. So where are all these good bats going to play? And is there any minor leaguer who the Twin's brass views as their future SS? To some this might seem like a good problem to have; to others, maybe it's just too confusing. -
Did the Twins Win or Lose the Trade Deadline?
mike8791 replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I have to give this trade season an Incomplete grade. On the whole, the FO did well, especially on Cruz and Berrios. A+ on those. Unlike many, I give them high grades in keeping Donaldson, Buxton, Kepler and even Sano. If this team is to have any offense next year, they need this group to anchor the lineup. But the trade deadline moves are only a first step in return to respectability. Resigning Pineda and Buxton are musts. Signing a top FA pitcher is a must, as is acquiring at least two bullpen arms who can be depended on to close games. Without these additional moves, we are looking at an extended rebuild. If the Wonder Boys complete their mission, I'll be first in line to congratulate them! IF they repeat 2021 mistakes(and we should know by midseason 2022, they should be shown the door. Oh, and let's not forget need for ownership to be proactive in expanding payroll to invest in this brighter future.- 60 replies
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The Dust Has Settled - What's Next, Part 2
mike8791 commented on mike8791's blog entry in mike8791's Blog
No question, this is a bad team now. How can it be anything else when your best hitter and pitcher are traded? But the FO had little choice but to trade both Cruz and Berrios now while their value was highest. Berrios made it pretty plain he was going to test FA. If he wanted to be paid like an ace, Twins had to trade him. Cruz at 41 is a stud, but to expect him to continue at this high level is just unrealistic. While yes, the Twins are in a rebuilding mode and as things stand now, contention in 2022 looks like a big stretch, the future does look brighter than it did several days ago, especially in the rotation. To accelerate the improvement, they need to resign Pineda and hope that one or two of their top 10 prospects can contribute positively by 2023. They have at least doubled their chances of that happening if we can believe the baseball pundits. With Jax and Ober pitching reasonably well to date, it's feasible one of them plus one of the other prospects will solidify the #4 and 5 spots by 2023. Admittedly the offense is a big unknown. So long as they can escape any major injuries, Donaldson and Buxton are middle lineup, above average hitters. Guys like Arraez, Polanco, Garver have by and large established their offense. We should expect at least one of Kirillof or Larnach to contribute to this core, and I'm not quite ready to write off Sano and Kepler yet. They still show flashes now and then, though not nearly enough to count on. With Miranda and possibly Martin showing great promise, additional reinforcement should occur by 2023. None of the above is any guarantee of a rapid return to contention. This FO must get a lot smarter in signing FAs. A FA signing of someone like Thor or Stroman is essential. This team has no ace and likely will not for the next 2-3 years. Ditto for bullpen additions. At least two closer-types needs to be added. We should also transition a guy like Duran to the pen as soon as he is off the IL and bring up guys like Cano, Hamilton and Moran to see who might stick. Signing Buxton to a LT contract is an absolute must. If the FO fails at this very achievable goal, heads should roll. And speaking of rolling heads, Rocco tops the list. He and at least a few of his coaches just don't cut it. If this year has shown nothing else, lack of leadership, lack of stressing fundamentals and poor game management have not been the sole cause of futility, but they certainly haven't helped. With some smarter FA moves, signings and player development, this team should start making noise by 2023! -
Before we look into our crystal balls post-deadline, a quick review of what's just transpired might be in order. First, we lost our best hitter and best pitcher. For this very reason, chances are this season is going to get even worse. Three of our new starters will likely be Ober, Jax and Barnes, none of whom figures to be better than a #5 starter. The bullpen has arguably gotten worse without Rogers and Robles. And the offense will likely continue to be erratic - some big run production outings against below average pitching, but more likely low run production against even average pitching. And with a very difficult August schedule, the likelihood of the Twins climbing out of the cellar looks mighty slim. But let's look at the bright side. The Twins prospect depth greatly improved. We've added at least 3 top 10 prospects, probably catapulting our depleted, injury-stricken minor league system into the top ten in MLB, at least on paper anyway. And just as importantly, we kept several players who can be building blocks going forward. You cannot underestimate the importance of Maeda and Pineda, solid #2 and #3 starters in leading a reenergized rotation in 2021. Nor can you ignore the importance of having a Donaldson and hopefully healthy Buxton leading the offense next year. Which brings me to my first point : they need to resign both Pineda and Buxton if this team has any chance of jumping into contention in 2023. This team will likely not be a playoff contender next year but for them to bounce back to at least a .500 record and set the stage for contention in 2023, these 4 players must be kept.. Continuing on the bright side, this FO did a great job in the trade department. They received at least 3-4 players who should be playing in the big leagues as soon as next year, but most likely by 2023. The rotation's future looks much brighter with guys like Joe Ryan and SWR, not to mention our top prospects, Winder and Balozavic, should yield one or two rotation mainstays by 2023. Which brings me to point#2: Sign a FA with ace potential this offseason. My first choice is Syndergaard who should be more affordable due to injury but still young enough to lead a contending staff. He should be an offseason priority. This is a risk but one well worth taking if the team is committed to rebounding quickly. The new additions will also mitigate against rushing some of our younger prospects and perhaps switching some to relievers. Which brings me to the bullpen. We added some middling prospects, one of whom might prove valuable in the pen. We still have Rogers, Duffy and Thielbar, with a few minor leaguers on the verge. Let;s bring up guys like Cano, Hamilton, and Moran and see how they do. Coulombe has looked decent. Point #3: they must spend the $ for a top FA reliever. Any suggestions? I'm at a loss here. And let's try to get Alcala straightened out at AAA now, as well as transitioning Duran to the pen. This is still a dumpster fire but at least it can't get much worse than it is now. So count me as positive for the retool. It sure beats a long rebuild!!
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Trade Deadline Preview: The Los Angeles Dodgers
mike8791 replied to Matthew Lenz's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Agree that Dodgers are one of Twin's best trade partners, primarily because of their deep farm system. For Berrios and one other reliever(Duffey, Thielbar?), Twins should shoot for two top 10 prospects. Although injured, May would be my top choice, but doubtful Friedman would move him. If not, two of Gray, Pepiot, or Gonsolin would be great. These are all names that have been bandied about many times on this site and others. I have another suggestion. One of those three starters + Lux(who could step into SS position immediately) and (surprise), Graterol, who MLBTR says might be available. While he's been injury prone his addition would provide a badly needed option for a shutdown reliever. Twins might have to toss in a prospect here to sweeten the deal, but this is direction I hope FO will go. With addition of a key FA pitcher(Syndergaard is far and away my top choice), retaining Pineda and Maeda, one of the Dodger pitchers mentioned above, and either our best minor league prospect or Joe Ryan, our 2022 rotation should be much improved. Fingers crossed!! -
Joefish: I realize Polanco is an average SS at best, but think it more important for both Arraez and Polanco to be in lineup every day and this is only solution, at least for 2022. Without Cruz, this team is going to need all the offense possible, which is why guys like Donaldson, Kepler, Buxton, Garver and yes, even Sano should be on next year's squad if this team is going to at least be respectable. Twins didn't do too badly in 2019/2020 w/Polanco at SS, so let him play there next year, too. I see greater hope for 2023 with hopefully the emergence of Lewis and Miranda bolstering the lineup, thereby lessening heavy dependence on an aging Donaldson, an all-or-nothing Sano and allowing the FO to pursue trading Polanco for whatever help is needed at that time. Of course, returning to contention in 2023 will greatly depend on the success of Falvine's draft picks upon being promoted to the Twins. The jury is still out on that big question.
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Letting Byron Buxton Walk Will Haunt
mike8791 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Earlier this week you guys had to make a tough move and trade Nelson Cruz, a face of the franchise. With the deadline approaching, have you given any directives to Derek/Thad about your other potential faces of the franchise, José Berríos or Buxton? No. I don’t give any directives to the front office. I don’t think that anybody wants me to be doing that, (media) or any fan out there or anybody on the team. I don’t do that. _________________________________________________________________ The above quote by Pohlad when questionned by Dan Hayes of The Athletic capsulizes in a nutshell what is wrong with this franchise. It would be very simple for Pohlad to tell Falvey : sign this guy! Period. But I'm afraid JP, as usual, prefers to sit by the side of the pool rather than make a decision. This is simply lack of leadership - a trait that has plagued this franchise since the son has taken over. When Carl tried to contract the Twins and came to a baseball meeting in Chicago, I came down to O'hare with signs protesting this egregious act. I got in Carl's startled face and chastised him for this travesty. As the only protestor, I was interviewed by A TV reporter from the the Twin Cities NBC channel. I'm only relaying this story to implore the Twin's fan base to get off their butts and picket Pohlad's office now. What do you have to lose, other than the franchise's best player since Puckett? Who knows, maybe JP will shed his lethargy and listen to the fans! You guys should have a lot to say!! -
No question, Angels nabbing 3 of 4 primarily due to the lack of offense. Without Cruz and Kirillof, this is a well below average offense. Rocco must give Garver and Sano plenty of playing time, not only to help spark a languid offense, but to better assess what help they will be next year and beyond. With Bux's status even more uncertain, this team must find some answers on the offensive side as well as pitching. Right now, hopes for a rebound in 2022 are looking mighty slim. One more thing. This org. better decide soon whether Alcala can be fixed. He has been a huge disappointment in my mind and cannot at all be counted on being a positive member of the pen going forward. Better start bringing the rooks up after trade deadline and see now whether they can provide some hope for the future. This current bullpen is a dumpster fire!
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- brent rooker
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Not minimizing Berrios" ability. Just sounds like he wants the market to set his value, not the Twins. That could result in his getting somewhere between $20-25MM/yr for at least 5 years. If Twins ownership willing to increase payroll significantly more, e.g., by 20-30% over current payroll, then perhaps they could compete in FA. But their priority seems to be resigning Bux - and that's as it should be, so if they can get someone now to send a couple top prospects for Berrios now, that would be far preferable to letting him go for a comp pick. If you think the Twins can realistically retool enough in 2022, then yes, keep Berrios by all means. I don't think that's reality and so, trading Berrios seems like the right move now. After a very good yield for Cruz, I'm hopeful the FO can build on this success with a second major trade, and that would have to include Berrios and probably Rogers, too.
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Top Gun: Yes, I purposely left return for Berrios out, as now it's just pure speculation what that might be. At first glance, yes, the Dodgers seem to be in great need for a starter and late inning reliever. May would be great as a return. I'd add Lux in the package, along with another top prospect like Pepiot or Gonsolin. Problem is Friedman hates giving up top prospects and I think May would be untouchable. The Pods also look like a good trade prospect with guys like Weathers and Paddack intriguing. No telling what Preller will do, but SD would be my second favorite trade target. Bottom line: Twins FO needs to be blown away to trade Berrios/Rogers and while I think they should, given Berrios' seeming demand for ace $ and Rogers still uneven, as indicated by his %Inherited Runners Scored, I doubt Falvey will pull the trigger. I agree that offense will take a step back next year, but chalk it up to growing pains. With our needs in the pen and rotation, just not much left over to add bats. I pushed for Twins this past offseason to trade Polanco for package of Castellanos and Gray or Castillo, but that was not to happen. And while I am as unhappy with Sano as everyone else, his trade value is so low we're better off holding on to him for DH duties. Rooker will never be better than a AAAA player and there is no one else on the farm that looks like an upgrade. Strum: Have to disagree here. Both Arraez and Polanco are too valuable to slot into a utility role. This lineup needs consistency and these two have been providing it. A guy like Gordon could fill the bill until Lewis is ready, at which time, trading Polanco or Arraez might be feasible. In the meantime, each of these guys should focus in their offensive contributions instead of manning several positions. Bad idea, especially for a young guy like Arraez.
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Now that the first shoe has dropped in the Twin's trade season, what should the Twins do next? The Cruz trade impact clearly affects both the pitching and offense of this team, both now and next year. The additions of Ryan and to a lesser extent, Strotman, can be expected to bolster the Twin's staff, even as soon as next year. Their addition improves the odds that ("trumpets blaring"), this team might have doubled their chances to internally develop an ace(prior to this trade, Balozavic seemed the only minor leaguer who has a reasonable chance to achieve this status). Furthermore, their addition can allow guys like Duran and Winder more time in the minors to develop better secondary pitches, rather than being rushed to the ML club. Of course, losing your most consistent hitter in a very inconsistent lineup will have a negative impact on the offense. There is no one ready to step in to the DH role and replace Cruz, either this year or next. So one fallout of this trade should be that the FO holds onto its remaining offensive talent, starting with Donaldson and Buxton. Josh has shown his ability this year, both to stay relatively healthy and be a middle-of-the-lineup threat. Buxton, despite his injury history, is the catalyst this offense needs and must be resigned at all costs. Happy to see the FO making an offer now rather than let the issue linger into next season. Get it done, Falvey. The loss of Cruz should squash any thoughts of trading guys like Sano, Kepler, Garvey, Polanco, or Arraez if there is any hope of having a competitive lineup next year. While each of these guys have their drawbacks, there is simply no one in the minors who looks ready to replace any of these guys. Yes, Kirillof looks like a better long term 1B than Sano, but the latter should be retained to serve as DH, with Garver and Astudillo as backups. Arraez should have a permanent position at 2B. Ditto for Polanco at SS, at least until Lewis or someone else is ready. Miranda is having a great season, but should not be rushed to the majors before he shows he can step into Donaldson's shoes in 2023/4. Even with an improved staff in 2022, this lineup does not inspire great hope of an immediate rebound. Hopefully, the FO is not finished dealing this month. At the top of their list of tradable assets should be Berrios. He is what he is - an above average, dependable #3 starter who can help put a contender in a better position to win it all these next two years. You never know what other clubs would offer in trade, but certainly we could expect another major-league-ready pitcher at least as good, and likely better than Ryan. Reading all the reports, Berrios seems very unlikely to resign with the Twins, and that's not a bad thing. He is not the type of ace you can build a staff around and certainly shouldn't be paid like one. Assuming the demand for his talents is quite strong now, the FO should capitalize on a bidding war to procure two top prospects by the July 30 the deadline. One can hope that teams like the Dodgers, Padres, or Jays, loaded with excellent prospects, would be bidding for Berrios' services now - to the point of maybe even overpaying. Trading Berrios should coincide with retaining Maeda and Pineda. Though neither can be counted on as an ace, they are perfectly suitable for #2-3 slots in most rotations, especially a Twins team who has little hope of being serious contenders in 2022. The one FA starter who the Twins should pursue this offseason is Syndergaard. Yes, we don't know how much he can contribute in 2022 after a serious injury, but it's a risk worth taking. He could be much more likely to be a true ace than anyone since Santana. Maybe the FO could make it easier on the Mets by trading Berrios to them, thereby lessening their need to resign Thor. I can get very excited by a rotation of Thor, Maeda, Pineda, Balozavic, and Ryan in 2023! As for the bullpen, yes, reinforcements are badly needed. I would keep Rogers unless getting a trade offer too good to refuse. Ditto with Duffey, but the Twins must have a proven closer in place by a year from now. I've liked what I've seen of Coulombe and Ferrell, albeit very small sample size. I can only hope Alcala progresses(though I think he's rapidly losing credibility this year in a late-inning role).. Duran looks like a potential closer-type but that remains to be seen. One proven closer must be signed in the offseason to bolster this group. This will not be a playoff-ready bullpen next year but it has the potential of no longer being the trash fire it was this year, especially after getting rid of guys like Colome, Robles, and other ill-conceived 2021 FA pickups. And finally, since this is my wish list, I have one more request. Please get rid of Rocky. He is too laid back for a contender and doesn't have the necessary baseball smarts to pull the proper levers. This team's lack of fundamentals and fire have been agonizing to watch and while blame can be shared equally among under-performing players, Rocco and the FO, if this team is going to rebound in the next couple of years, replacing Rocco with a veteran manager is a necessity. It's worked for the Sox, why not the Twins?
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Not Good? Be Interesting (Twins Hitting)
mike8791 replied to Ted Schwerzler 's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Thanks Ted for summary of "hitting prospects". It goes to reinforce belief that Twins 2022 offense depends greatly on keeping the current offense intact. The only promising position player who should be called up this season is Miranda. The other guys mentioned are at best AAAA players. If this is the Twins' future, look out below, especially if Rooker "replaces" Cruz. He has shown absolutely nothing at the ML level that indicates he can fill Cruz's jock, no less his shoes. We'd better hang on to guys like Donaldson, Garver, Sano, Kepler if we hope to rebound in 2022; otherwise, even if this FO succeeds in a successful rebuild of the pitching staff, the offense would take a big step backwards. The attention has been all on pitching, but looks like the Wonder Boys have also whiffed on offense as well, if these are our best near-term prospects.- 10 replies
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