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dbminn

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Everything posted by dbminn

  1. dbminn
    Suzuki will be back but that's not a nightmare. Resigning Hunter would be close to the nightmare bar. Pelfrey would be a nightmare because it would clog up the path for the younger pitchers. The Santana signing was a nightmare from the beginning for me, even if he'd been available the entire season. But... Buxton or Sano getting hurt would be the definition of a horrible nightmare! My best dreams are a crafty trade for a young catcher, a somewhat resurgent Mauer and at least one of the RP prospects stepping up next year. One more nightmare - and this one will be become true: all of the second guessing that will occur whenever the FO makes a trade!
  2. dbminn
    The projections have fulfilled their mission: all of us are talking about it! As Brock has pointed out, the projections are far better than just eyeballing the standings. The math works if you think the assumptions are reasonable. To me, it's a quick and dirty statistical analysis but a defensible starting point for debate.
  3. dbminn
    Progress. It always takes a while to build. By comparison, here's the recent history of the KC Royals to get to 61 wins. Six years in the doldrums, followed by a good year, then a WS run, to now: 2015 - 99 2014 - 114 2013 - 115 2012 - 135 2011 - 147 2010 - 148 2009 - 149 2008 - 143 2007 - 136 And the Cubbies. Five bad years followed by real progress: 2015 - 109 2014 - 135 2013 - 143 2012 - 162 2011 - 141 2010 - 141 The Twins are next!
  4. dbminn
    I think there is a good chance Rosario can become this player. He just needs to be more selective with his swings to get there. His stats history and his eye/hand coordination indicate he should be able to both reduce Ks and increase BBs by a few percentage points. That being said, don't be surprised if he hits a rough patch early next year. Opposing pitchers will have a complete book on him starting next season. Rosario's success will be all about adjustments. If Rosario ends up being 90% as good as Lyman Bostock, we'll have a special player. I watched Bostock play quite a few games at Metropolitan Stadium. He was ready to have a great career before his untimely death. Of course, I'm a bit biased on the matter (see avatar). For those interested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HMKx2Uc4084
  5. dbminn
    I've been reading less at this site because it's starting to sound like a fifth grade home room - the name calling and hyperbole is getting out of control. I'm not a "front-office lover", just bored with smug second guessers. The Twins are performing about as expected. Next year should be better yet. Ryan and his organization have put this team in great position for the next five years. They've drafted well and signed some fine international free agents. Do I think Ryan should stay? No - I don't think he's the best person to make the trades that are needed this offseason (among other reasons). Is Ryan an idiot? Not at all. You think Ryan should've sold the farm this year for big money veterans? Great. The point can be made without the shallow name calling - especially of those here who disagree. Thankfully, the senior contributors write consistently solid articles and, along with many of the fans here, provide fine forum commentary (even if they disagree with me).
  6. dbminn
    Bring up Buxton. Sit Hunter more and give Rosario a day off against tough lefties. That gives the Twins a bat off the bench in either case. Won't kill Buxton to sit a day per week either. Plenty for him to learn from the bench once every 5-6 games. I suspect the Twins have 13 pitchers because May hasn't been available the past few days. Should change soon. Bring up Vargas on September 1st.
  7. dbminn
    Depth is a key to a winning season. I have no problem with four players competing for three OF spots. Someone will get injured or may have an extended slump. I also wouldn't mind if one OF is included in a trade package for a young catcher. Hicks and Rosario probably have a higher trade value than Kepler since they have proven they can play in the show.
  8. dbminn
    Good post. I would switch Dozier/Rosario and Hunter/Mauer. Dozier has more power and moving Mauer up one gives a R/L/R combo.
  9. dbminn
    Ultimately, I agree with you. Kepler's BB/K ratio is hard to find in the modern game. And, with Hicks on the roster the Twins have a starting RF/backup CF if Buxton gets hurt. Finally, I think Rosario has a better trade value than Kepler right now. MLB experience is valued and GMs don't want to trade an MLB ready C or SS for a player that isn't visible to the fans for a year or more. I just have a higher opinion of Rosario than most (Fangraph's McDaniel predicts Rosario to be an "empty" .270 hitter for his career). Moving towards his career BB/K ratio would increase his OBP by .030+ (reduced Ks mean a few extra hits) and I believe he'll hit a few more homers as he matures. Just this reasonable improvement puts him pretty high up in OF productivity, maybe 120+ WRC. Bottom line: I too would prefer Rosario traded to either Hicks or Kepler. I would not trade him for less than what I believe is his future worth.
  10. dbminn
    Hicks's second half has been remarkable, no doubt. His splits are wide but might improve with experience. (Nice to see him have multiple LH hits last night). In any case, I agree he has earned the right to play full-time this year, at least as long as the Twins are in contention. Rosario is more than hustle and grit - he has plenty of athleticism and baseball skills. He's a 23 year old rookie who's accumulated 1.2 WAR in less than 300 PA. That puts him slightly above "good" in the WAR world. As a rookie. I believe he will add a couple of percentage points to his %BB and to drop a few from %K in the next couple years. That would leave him with percentages similar to his long-term minor league history and improve his offensive WAR. I would be happy with Rosario, Buxton and Hicks as the 2016 starting OF. I think this is the most likely case at this point. I could see Rosario or Hicks being traded in the offseason for either a C or SS. That's fine too. Just don't trade Kepler.
  11. dbminn
    If you believe the Twins are in contention with the Blue Jays and Orioles for a wild card spot, bring up Arcia. Otherwise, make him earn his chance for now. (He can still come up in September to try to prove himself one last time.) Kepler is not a "marginal" prospect. He's easily top five in the Twins organization and has the tools to become a fine major league player. He puts the ball in play with authority, strikes out very little and is a capable OF. He's just not ready. Let Kepler continue through the minor leagues for now... along with Buxton.
  12. dbminn
    Thoughtful article and I generally agree with the theme. Just a couple of items: I think the plan has been to compete for the title in 2017. Prospects are starting to fill the major league roster but the Twins are still another year from having a full complement of seasoned young players. The Twins will still need to pursue a SS, C and a RP outside of the Twins system. The Twins need to make offseason moves to fill a couple of these positions with young, MLB-ready players. They have OF/DH/P prospects and a couple of veterans available for trade. I would keep Ryan through the end of the season. Ryan is and always will be a scout. He's developed a fine minor league system through both the draft and international signings. To me, he's less solid as a dealer. The big question is: Should he be the one to make the offseason trades and take the team into 2016?
  13. dbminn
    Thanks for the response, Spycake. I agree that we shouldn't close the book on Turner and also that his hitting this year is nothing to get excited about. Still, I'd like to clarify a couple of things: The article is about the major league team. Turner was never expected to be a major leaguer this year. He has advanced from A+ to AA and will need one more year at this level before he even appears at the edge of the MLB radar. No reason to use the word "fail" in this context. Just say the young man is not close to the majors.I argued that he was a college catcher. Only one AA catcher from your Fangraphs link was as young as Turner and went to college: Kyle Schwarber, a hitter who has failed to develop as a catcher. The others have had 3-4 years in professional baseball. Turner was a part-time, aluminum bat wielding baseball player who was also a college student.I probably wasn't clear enough on how I view young catchers. IMO, defense and game calling are more important than hitting at this phase of a catcher's development (23, 2nd year in pro ball). Catchers are notorious for late development as hitters. Here's Kiley McDaniel's scouting report from FanGraphs: "Turner isn’t the guy you get excited about at first glance, but he might turn into a big league starter behind the plate. He’s an advanced catch-and-throw guy that gives pitchers a big target, he calls his own games and has the plus arm to shut down the running game." Sounds like he hasn't failed yet as a defensive catcher, which, to me, is more important at this point.
  14. dbminn
    Nick Gordon is slashing .333/.378/.449 in July. Nice to see.
  15. dbminn
    Stuart Turner has yet to "fail to develop". He's a 23-year old college catcher in his first year at AA ball. Catchers have a lot more responsibility than simply putting up a slash line. No one should expect him to be dominating AA at this point.
  16. dbminn
    Thanks Brock. All a negative fWAR - ERA difference means for a young pitcher is, "If he ever gets command of his pitches, he'll be good".
  17. dbminn
    I don't think Arcia fits with the Orioles right now. They already have a weak corner OF defense. So... Let's spice this trade up - Rosario/Suzuki/Milone/Young Prospect for Wieters/Gausmann The Orioles get a legitimate OF defender who can slash and has upside potential. They need a #5 starter and I'd take Milone over Bud Norris. Suzuki can platoon with Caleb Joseph. Wieters becomes a FA at the end of the year, so they can still sign him to a long-term contract (probably unlikely). The Twins get a pitcher with upside potential. Put him in the bullpen and let him work with Neil Allen the rest of the season. May to the rotation for Milone. Either acquire an OF at the trade deadline or bring up Ortiz until Buxton is healthy. The Twins get two months of a top-flight catcher to appease the "win now" folks. There is no likelihood this trade is made, but it's more fun than assuming the Orioles will trade a SP prospect for a no-field OF/power hitting prospect.
  18. dbminn
    A major league ready catcher would be my priority. Depending on the catcher, players to trade could include, as options, (not all) Arcia, Plouffe, Polanco or any from a list of the younger (2017 or later) prospects. Again, depends on the catcher. There are several teams with an established catcher and a younger second. Someone mentioned Cozart as a possible SS trade. Of course, he's rehabbing right now but I'd be willing to talk to Cincinnati about him in the offseason. I would not want to trade Buxton, Berrios, Sano or Kepler for either position. Rosario maybe for the right player.
  19. dbminn
    I hope the goal is to trade for younger players during the offseason. The Twins have several C prospects to pursue at that time. 30-year old free agents should not be the priority.
  20. dbminn
    Twins Wins: 37.5 OVER Mauer's OPS: .815 OVER Dozier HRs: 14.5 UNDER Sano HRs: 9.5 OVER Hicks: .350 OBP OVER Sano OPS: .900 OVER Hunter HR: 8.5 UNDER Perkins Saves: 22.5 UNDER Gibson ERA: 3.25 UNDER Santana ERA: 3.50 OVER Hughes ERA: 3.75 OVER Arcia PA: 150 UNDER Buxton PA: 150 UNDER Trevor May Starts: 5.5 OVER Mike Pelfrey Starts: 5.5 UNDER Alex Meyer IP: 6.5 UNDER Jose Berrios IP: 15.5 UNDER Kurt Suzuki OPS: .600 OVER RP acquired via free agency and trade: 1.5 OVER Catchers acquired via trade: 0.5 UNDER Trevor Plouffe OPS: .775 OVER Brian Duensing ERA: 3.80 UNDER Blaine Boyer ERA: 3.80 OVER Casey Fien ERA: 3.80 UNDER
  21. dbminn
    Stick with internal options this year. Rollins and Segura are not upgrades.Tulo is too old for his contract and for a young Twins team. Cozart is injured and won't return until next year.The Twins can explore trades for a younger SS in the offseason, if the deal is right. Cozart would be a possibility at that time. I would like to see the Twins follow the model of teams that have been successful for a number of years. The Cardinals, Pirates, Nationals and Giants all have everyday lineups that are primarily homegrown*. Both the Cardinals (Pujols, Freese) and the Giants (Sandoval) have replaced established contributors with younger players, all while competing for championships. (*Some of the players were obtained while either in the minors or while under control.)
  22. dbminn
    During the offseason, Dave Goltz would bowl in the Tuesday afternoon Farmer's League with my Grandpa Carl. (Northern Aire Lanes, Fergus Falls, Minnesota.)
  23. dbminn
    The voters won't look at the team's record for the last four years. Mauer had very good years in 2012 and 2013. His struggles have only occurred in the last 18 months. Joe has looked like his old self the last three weeks. Hopefully that'll continue.
  24. dbminn
    A fine analysis of the first half, Brandon. It's great that the Twins have improved enough that this article was possible. While May has shown improvement all year, Hicks is the player that has shown the most surprising gains. He still has a lot of rough edges at the plate but the light has turned on. His continued solid play is needed if the Twins are going to make the playoffs.
  25. dbminn
    Congratulations to the Twins on a successful first half, from the field to the manager to the front office. Twins baseball has been fun again. I expected the starting rotation to be fairly consistent this year but I didn't see more than .500 by the all-star break. Until the last 10 days, the veteran hitters had provided most of the run production. Somehow, adding Sano has energized the other young hitters; Rosario, Santana and (wow) Hicks. They give me a bit more optimism about the second half.
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