Cap'n Piranha

As far as I'm aware, the Twins have transacted two trades with SF--one sent Davis, Berroa, and Teng for Dyson. While Dyson was a disaster, that was injury related, and none of the players the Twins sent have amounted to much. Davis has a 32 wRC+ in parts of 3 seasons with the Giants, and is 27--we have a better, younger option in Brent Rooker. Berros is 21 in Low A, and has a nice 3.28 ERA, and has struck out 133 in 96 innings--but has also walked 48. Teng is 22 in High A, and has a pedestrian 4.57 ERA, and while he's struck out 130 in 88 innings, he's walked 52. Neither of them look like more than organizational filler at this point (that could obviously change). Hardly a fleecing. The Anderson for Wade trade is clearly a bad one--that happens to even the best FO's (witness the Twins nabbing Odorizzi from the Rays for Palacios). That said--Wade is already 27, there's already some potential erosion in his contact rates. He still only has 300ish PA's on the season because he's completely unusable against lefties (.376 OPS, 32.4% k rate, NINE wRC+--he's been so bad SF has only given him 37 PA's all year against lefties). So essentially you're saying SF fleeced us by getting a 27 year old platoon corner outfielder (he has 13 innings in center this year, with a -117 UZR/150--SSS), at a position group where the Twins should have better options in Kiriloff, Larnach, Celestino, Lewis (maybe), Arraez, and Buxton (hopefully) for the next 3-5 years? The issue isn't that we traded Wade, it's that we didn't identify the right player to get in return.

At the end of the day, you need people to come to your games/watch them on TV. The Minneapolis metro area is 3.5M--here are some others; Chicago--9.5M (call it 4.75M per team) New York--20.3M (call it 10.1M per team) Los Angeles--12.5M (call it 6.2M per team) Boston--4.9M Philadelphia--5.7M Atlanta--5.9M DC--5.4M Houston--7.1M Toronto--6.3M Phoenix--4.6M Dallas--6.4M That's 14 teams that have at least 1M more fans in their metro areas than the Twins--9 have at least 2M more. The Twins payroll and budget like a mid-market squad because they are one.

Wow, lots of angst here--you said the current pitching staff is in worse shape than in 2017 when Falvine took over. That's not an argument I'm attempting to make, those are your own words. The 2021 Twins pitching has been, relative to the league, better in 2021 than for the entirety of the SIX YEAR 2011-2016 timeframe, and better than all but one of those individual seasons. You can argue that the future pitching staff for 2017 was better than the future pitching staff is for 2021, but I also think that's off. Santana--was 34 in 2017, and had just put up a FIP- only 10% better than 32 year old "nearly cooked" Pineda has this year. In 2017, his FIP- was 101, and he spent 3 years not pitching/awful before somehow rebounding this year. That last part is hindsight, but it demonstrates the point--34 year old good-not-great starters should not be counted on for more than the next season--not a great future asset. Gibson--was 29 in 2017, and had 3 straight years of 25-30 starts, only once below 100 on FIP-, and that was at 97. Not a great future asset, and in fact, he didn't start to look good until 2018 (read--after Falvine had been able to work with him) Berrios--turned 23 in 2017, and had just finished a season where he put up a FIP- of 144 (for what it's worth, Shoemaker's FIP- this year was 153). Obviously there was still plenty of promise there given his age and lack of experience, but he also struck out only 7.5/9 in 2016, while walking 5.4/9. An uncertain future asset at that point, and given his immediate improvement in both k and bb rate once Falvine came on board, are we really so sure they shouldn't get some credit for helping Jose take the next step? Mejia--had 2 IP in MLB in 2016. Nice track record in the minors, and reason for hope, but let's not pretend he was locked in as a quality starting option. If you're going to include Mejia as a positive for 2017, then you have to include Duran, Balazovic, Winder, SWR, and Strotman for 2021 as well. Santiago--had a 125 FIP- in 2016; J.A. Happ in 2021 is at 126. Are you saying a 29 year old who essentially replicated J.A. Happ's 2021 season was a quality piece moving forward? Colon--was added halfway through 2017, by Falvine. Duffey--was still a full-time starter, and had a 110 FIP-. As such, he was not a potential good piece for the bullpen, any more than any generic starting pitcher is a potential good piece for a bullpen. Pressly, Rogers, and Kintzler--all three were good not great (87, 82, and 83 FIP-. 2021 Caleb Thielbar has an 82 FIP-). Rogers didn't become what he is until 2018 (read--after Falvine had been able to work with him). Belisle--was signed in free agency prior to the 2017 season, by Falvine. So of the 11 pitchers you mentioned, 2 were actually acquired by Falvine, 1 was a completely unproven minor leaguer, 3 were young starters who hadn't established themselves yet, 1 was a thoroughly mediocre vet, 1 was a solid but old vet, and 3 were good-not-great bullpen options. This idea that Falvine was handed the makings of a championship staff is ludicrous--the staff improved because Falvine helped them improve. We're also not worse off now than in 2017, given the $40m-$60M available to spend this offseason, the passel of starters coming up through the system at AA or above, and the collection of potential relief options under team control for next year (Rogers, Gant, Farrell, and Coulombe all have FIP- better than the PRK trio in 2016, with Thielbar, Duffey, and Stashak better than Pressly).

I'm pretty sure the last offer was a 7/$80M base, which is a little over $11M a year. I don't think a $7M base gets it done, nor should it.

So long as Buxton remains an elite center fielder, and plays 120 games a year, yes, he is guaranteed to post 3-4 WAR. That only works if the Twins pay him $15M or so for that performance, with a mechanism to up that pay to $20M-$25M should he put up 5-7 WAR.

I never said anyone else said 10 years. I said 10 years because I'm trying to make the point that we shouldn't just assume Joe Ryan can be etched in stone into the rotation for the foreseeable future, based on his first 2 starts. Nothing more, nothing less.

The Twins faced 6 teams that made the playoffs in 2020, more than any team from the East or West of either league (at least the ones that made the playoffs).

Tyler Duffey was a starter in 2016, and pitched to a 6.43 ERA. As recently as 2018, Duffey pitched 59 innings at AAA--this FO moved him to the bullpen, and made him a weapon, they did not inherit that. Santana was 34 when the 2017 season started--he was solid, but given the pitching aging curve, it would be reasonable to expect him to decline in the next 1-3 years, which he did (due at least somewhat to injuries). I don't think you could call Santana a good piece for the future in March 2017--at best he was a good piece for the present. So here's what the FO got for the future when they took over; a young potential #1/#2, a young #3, and two good-not-great bullpen arms. You're right, it's not nothing, but let's also not pretend like that situation was somehow playoff-caliber on the surface of it.

You have the years reversed. 2016 was the horrendous, 103 loss year. Falvine took over before 2017, which is when the Twins made the playoffs, and Molitor won MOY. Falvine has had one bad year (this one), which is going to end up being for sure better than 2 out of the 2011-2016 teams, probably better than 2 more, and perhaps even a fifth. This seems to constantly get lost--as bad as this season has been, IT'S STILL PROBABLY BETTER THAN EVERY NON-2015 SEASON FROM 2011-2016.

Schoop has a .761 OPS, and 1.4 WAR, while being a negative defensively and on the basepaths. CJ Cron gets to hit at Coors (1.080 OPS at home, .741 on the road)--I wouldn't characterize either as doing "very well". I'd say they've been fine for what they are, which is players you don't mind having on your roster, but would have no problem replacing if something better came along, which is exactly a high bar to clear.

I never mentioned Lewis--yes, if the first overall pick from the 2017 draft is OPSing .600 in A+/AA 5 years after being drafted, that's bad--considering he had a .661 OPS in 2019 at A+/AA, I think that's pretty unlikely (especially since he OPS'd over .900 in the AFL at the conclusion of that year). Cavaco was drafted as a high risk pick--there was always a good likelihood he wouldn't translate, but if he did, he could be an all-star caliber shortstop for a few years. This is Sabato's first go-around in pro ball, as there was no MiLB last year--he struggled to start, but has OPS'd 1.026 in August, and .828 so far in September, so there's a positive trend there. Larnach hit a huge slump, but there is nothing in his track record to suggest he can't recover. If all 4 of these guys fail, but Ober, Jeffers, Soularie, Steer, etc. come up and become solid regulars, you can't say multiple consecutive draft classes have failed.

The Twins ERA- this year is 111--25th in baseball. Outside of the surprise 2015 contention year, the Twins ERA- from 2011 through 2016 were 112 (27th), 116 (29th), 113 (27th), 118 (30th), and 118 (30th). From 2011-2016, the Twins ERA- was 113, worst in baseball. From 2017 to 2021 it was an even 100, 15th in baseball. Tell me more about how much better the TR Part 2 pitching staff was than our current staff.

Ah, the good old Strawman argument accusation. What a handy catch-all to be able to throw out, instead of directly engaging with points you disagree with. You did indeed say Brock's list didn't play much, but you also called out injuries on some as a reason for that, so the question remains--would the 2016 Twins have been better if Brock's list of players played more? If no, then weren't injuries in 2016 keeping the Twins from being even worse? You believe that a core of players which was not good enough to avoid 100 losses in 2016 become good enough, in one offseason to improve by 24 games in 2017, and that result was inevitable, even if they had hired you or me? If so, isn't it plausible that the upcoming core of Miranda, Kiriloff, Lewis, Larnach, Duran, Ryan, Balazovic, Winder, Jeffers, Wallner, Martin, and Canterino (among others), will also be good, no matter what? And if they will be, then what is the point of firing another FO, especially when that FO was directly responsible for the acquisition of 9 of the 12 on that list? Any time you actually want to respond to my points, all of which were directly in response to your assertions (and therefore not strawmen), go right ahead. If not, I'll take it that you aren't able to actually refute anything.

Not skeptical at all that he can pitch--as I pointed out, I would have put him above SWR in Twins prospect rankings, i.e. a Top 5 prospect. I'm skeptical that a guy with two career starts (one of which was mediocre) and a massively unsustainable babip is going to pitch in the majors for the next 10 years. If you're not skeptical of the certainty of Joe Ryan's 10 year career in the bigs right now, then you're drinking some real strong kool-aid. I hope Ryan builds on this. I hope he is a cornerstone of the Twins rotation for the next decade. Even bound that, I would love it if someday his number was retired. But if Joe Ryan continues to induce little soft contact (he's at 6%, the league is 16%) and lots of hard contact (he's at 41%, the league is at 32%), he will be out of the league in the next 2-4 years. I believe he can improve on that, which is why I am optimistic about him in the rotation next year. That said, assuming he pitches every 5 days, his next 3 starts will be @NYY, @TOR, TOR. If he's still performing after those 3, I'll be MUCH less skeptical.

You're upset that Cavaco, Wallner, Canterino, Sabato, and Soularie, who all had less than 1 full year of experience in the minors going into the 2021 season, aren't successful MLB players right now? I would also point out that I'm sure the Pohlads understand the baseball draft is a giant crapshoot--BJ Surhoff is one of the 15 best first overall picks for crying out loud. If half of the guys you listed from their first 4 drafts play in the majors for 4-5 years, the Twins drafted pretty well.

The players were terrible in 2016. A new FO comes in, emphasizing analytics to help drive improvement. The players improve enough to make the playoffs. Seems silly to just assume the players were always going to improve, regardless of any other factor, like perhaps a FO with greater ability to develop players? Is your argument that Park, Murphy, Suzuki, Nolasco, Hughes, and Perkins would have been good if they weren't injured? Otherwise, you're essentially saying that the 2016 team would have been better if the bad players had been able to play more. It's not just that Stewart, Gordon, and Jay didn't turn out--it's that they were all top 6 picks in 2013-2015, and before this year, had combined for only 62 IP of 4.80 ERA, all from Stewart. Ignoring that as a factor is silly--the Twins should have 2-3 guys in their prime able to put up 1-2 WAR each right now, and they're getting nowhere near that. Of the 7 players you listed the FO shouldn't have let go, Anderson has only pitched 2 innings in the minors this year, so he wouldn't have helped. The other 6 have combined for 5.9 WAR--for what it's worth, Pineda, Thielbar, Jeffers, Kepler, Donaldson, and Garlick have combined for 5.8 WAR. It's also too early for their first round picks to truly make a difference when you account for the fact that their first 1st rounder was barely 4 years ago, and has been out this entire year, and that every MiLBer lost all of 2020. None of their first round picks had been able to get even 3 full seasons of pro ball going into 2021, and 2 of the 4 had less then one season (Cavaco and Sabato). Are they really supposed to be able to transition that quickly? This FO spent money in FA on Cruz x2, Pineda x2, Happ, Donaldson, Shoemaker, Colome, Simmons, Parker, Perez, Gonzalez, Schoop, committing $213.5M over just the past 3 off-seasons--my quick search at the source below shows that's more than the Twins spent on their ENTIRE roster in any TWO years of their history prior to the Falvine era (the only exception is if you combine 2011 with either 2015 or 2016--that would get you either $218M or $221M). The only year of the Falvine era that didn't have higher payroll than any other year in Twins history was 2017, their first, and that's because teams that lose 100 games generally don't go out and spend like crazy. The idea Falvine doesn't spend in FA is just not supported by fact or reality. This FO has been good--the proof is in the record. That doesn't mean they were good this year. It doesn't mean they'll continue to be good next year or the year after. But to jettison a front office that has produced playoff seasons in 3 of their 5 years at the helm is ridiculous. I also have to wonder how much better the Twins' pitchers WAR might be if Maeda, Pineda, Dobnak, Thorpe, Smeltzer, Rogers, Duran, Balazovic, and Winder hadn't all spent significant portions of the season hurt. You're perfectly fine with giving 2016 a pass based on injuries, despite the fact that the 2016 team was significantly worse, so why not 2021? https://twinstrivia.com/salaries-2/

The fact there is little to go on is exactly why we should be skeptical. On a completely different subject, I have this really awesome stock tip. The company was just founded last year, and grew 1,000% this year! If you send me some money, I'll invest it for you--I know that's only a little to go on, but that obviously means there's no good reason to be skeptical!

The skepticism comes from his .100 babip despite only inducing 6% soft contact, but giving up 41% hard contact; it is impossible for those 3 numbers to coexist for any sustained period. The number most likely to change out of those, by far, is the babip, and when it does, he won't be throwing 7 inning one-hitters. This doesn't mean Ryan's about to turn into Happ or anything, but it also means he's not mutant deGrom either. I like Joe Ryan, and I'm very optimistic about him--I thought he should have been ranked higher on the Twins prospect list than SWR--but we shouldn't assume that he's ready to be a 10 year starter in the bigs based off of two starts, one of which was mediocre.

Joe Ryan currently red-eye flight napping in the dugout.

2nd, 3rd, LF, or DH. Pretty easy to get him at least 1 game at each of those spots in any given week, even if you have a "full-time" DH. He won't be particularly good defensively at any of the first 3, but he's not so bad that you can't live with it, especially when the trade-off is one of the best pure hitters in baseball.

That is two not great defenders making a pretty great defensive play that better defenders would make look a lot easier.

I thought Happ was a perfectly acceptable signing for this Twins team (lots of young pitching, none of which was ready to contribute at the MLB level; not a ton of money left to spend). He fell apart pretty early in the season, which was always a possibility. My characterization of him as old with next-to-nothing in the tank was based on the reality of what has happened to him this year. This offseason, Happ will be lucky to get a Shoemaker deal--in all likelihood he will either take a MiLB deal with a spring training invite, or he'll retire. Goes to show how fast the aging process can be once it begins.

I'm going to go with he's old, and has next-to-nothing left in the tank.

Last night, Happ started his stretch run gauntlet, as I called out above. It did not go well, as Happ had, by game score, his worst start of the entire year. 13 batters faced, only retired 3, gave up 8 hits (2 HR), 2 walks, no strikeouts, and 7 earned runs, for a Game Score of -8.

As likely an explanation as any other.