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Cap'n Piranha

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Everything posted by Cap'n Piranha

  1. Cap'n Piranha
    Apparently Ryan threw all his strikes in the first inning.
  2. Cap'n Piranha
    Rocco decided to bat Refsnyder third because...
  3. Cap'n Piranha
    8 pitches, 8 strikes, 3 outs. Joe Ryan is on pace to be the greatest, most efficient, with the best k/bb ratio, pitcher of all-tme!
  4. Cap'n Piranha
    Precisely. The Twins had just won 103 games, but had started Randy Dobnak in a playoff game--they needed frontline starting pitching, but couldn't get it in FA. They went out to get a guy to improve their rotation, and he did just that. If the offense doesn't fall completely asleep at the wheel against Houston, who knows what might have happened?
  5. Cap'n Piranha
    This is correct. Any time you can get 3 years of control on a #2/#3 starter for 6 years of a reliever, you do it.
  6. Cap'n Piranha
    Right--I never said they should make a decision in the next 30 games. But if Ober continues to put up good numbers, and Ryan makes 5 starts where he looks ready for MLB, that makes fielding a competent pitching staff in 2022 much less daunting. If both Ober and Ryan look overmatched this month, the FO kind of has to assume they need 5 new starters at minimum should they wish to compete. That necessity very much increases the odds the FO decides to look at 2022 as a transition year, doesn't seriously attempt to compete, and stockpiles ammo (read, prospects and payroll) for 2023.
  7. Cap'n Piranha
    Rooker wishes.
  8. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, this is driven mostly by my past interactions with Mike, which are overwhelmingly negative against owners. At a certain point, continuing to complain about owners choosing to maximize profits becomes more about opting for misery than anything else.
  9. Cap'n Piranha
    Both Perkins and Bremer openly taking shots at Joe West tonight.
  10. Cap'n Piranha
    It must be miserable constantly griping about the financial blessings of others.
  11. Cap'n Piranha
    Having any modicum of confidence in Ober and Ryan sticking in the 2022 rotation vastly improves the odds of competing in 2022. If not, the FO legitimately needs to find 5 new starters in the next 7 months.
  12. Cap'n Piranha
    33% chance to make the playoffs, when only 1/6 of that is actually from winning the division, is not window open, in my opinion. The Jays were actually 50.7% to make the playoffs on opening day, so in 4 months, they had already lost about a third of their chance. The Jays essentially just tried (unsuccessfully) to open their window wider now, at the cost of it closing earlier than it would have. Seems foolish to me.
  13. Cap'n Piranha
    I completely agree the Jays were trying to get better mid-season. That they gave up SWR despite their less-than-favorable position, and for a guy who is not good enough to be a game 1 starter in the playoffs, is informative on how the Toronto organization views SWR. If they were convinced he was going to be better than Berrios in 2023, do they give him up? No chance. I imagine even the Mets see the value in an 18 year old, highly regarded pitching prospect. 33% should not be a high enough bar to cash in chips for a run. I imagine that teams who consistently raid their farm systems to try and capitalize on 33% chances to make the postseason very soon find themselves in position to no longer need to worry about making the postseason--because their odds go to 5%. The fact that the Jays have 3 behomoths in their division should be all the reason they need to not chase--essentially the Jays attempted to open their window early, by all but guaranteeing it will close sooner as well. Martin and SWR could have been key pieces in a 3-5 year window in a year or two. Now they're both gone, and if the Jays miss the playoffs next year (hardly an impossibility), they will have given them up for essentially no pay-out.
  14. Cap'n Piranha
    I mean, their non-position players are...who? Rooker and Arraez? If you assume the roster next year is Garver, Kiriloff, Polanco, (new shortstop), Donaldson, Larnach, Buxton, and Kepler, with a bench of Arraez, Jeffers, Sano, Miranda, and one more, why not Rooker (assuming in this scenario he's hitting). You have flexibility to rest Kiriloff or Larnach by playing Sano at first, Arraez/Miranda can spell Polanco and Donaldson, and 1 of the 5 (except the catcher) is DHing every day anways--may as well be a Rooker that's hitting, especially because you can thrown him in left on days you have a righty facing a left-heavy lineup. Once you have any injuries (not exactly unlikely, given Buxton, Donaldson, Polanco, and Arraez' presence), it becomes even easier to find a spot. If there's 40ish PAs a game, that's almost 6500 PA's, which means 13 players can each get 498 (502 is enough to be qualified). So if one guy misses 12 games (4 PAs a game), but the other 12 all stay completely healthy, all 12 of those players will qualify for the batting title.
  15. Cap'n Piranha
    The logic is that #1 starters are the most valuable commodity in baseball. Teams covet them, and will spend obscene amounts of money on them. Getting one for 6 years, at a maximum of say, $40M, is the equivalent of drafting a quarterback, and watching him become immediately MVP-caliber. As such, teams aren't going to give up on that lightly. If SWR is truly that, why have two teams in the span of 3 years decided they no longer want to have him in their organization, but instead opted for a handful of extra starts from good-not-great pitchers? It's true, the Jays may have been beaten out for Berrios in the offseason--assuming someone was going to beat their Martin/SWR offer (if they were willing to make it on July 31, why not in December)? My point was that it's quite possible the Jays could have given up less to get Berrios. The Mets could have given up less to get Stroman. I think e can agree it's very unlikely they would have had to give up more. As such, they're placing a pretty low premium on the possibility of SWR hitting his ceiling, since they were both willing to walk away from that in return for 12ish starts of #2 starters in non-playoff years.
  16. Cap'n Piranha
    Declining to surrender prospect capital for established big leaguers at the deadline, and punting on a season in progress are not the same thing. I'd argue that a team with a low chance to make the playoffs should never trade prospects in-season, unless the deal is just too good to pass up (like if the Twins had been able to get Trea Turner for Rooker and Wallner). The point I was making is that if the Mets and Jays had waited until the upcoming offseason, they still could have traded for Stroman and Berrios, and possibly paid less (they certainly wouldn't have paid more). As such, both clubs signaled they didn't value SWR's first 6 years of control all that highly, as they potentially gave it away for 12 starts from good-not-great pitchers in years they were not likely to make the playoffs. I think you're mischaracterizing the 2019 Mets and 2021 Jays as teams where "the starts aren't perfectly aligned"--both teams were quite flawed, with very low playoff probabilities, but reason to hope for the future. Making win-now moves for teams not ready to win now is illogical, unless it's to get an amazing player (neither Stroman or Berrios was/is), or if the cost is non-elite prospects. And there is the crux of the point I'm making--if the Mets and Jays saw SWR as an elite prospect, they would not have traded him in the circumstances they did. So either SWR is actually elite, and both the Mets and Jays weren't smart enough to realize it (hilarious in the case of the Jays, who would have had to realize it only 2 years earlier), or SWR is not actually elite.
  17. Cap'n Piranha
    The 2022 Twins don't have room on the roster for a guy who's hitting? I don't think our roster is that deep...
  18. Cap'n Piranha
    I'd be perfectly fine ditching Law, Thorpe, Farrell, and Smeltzer at this point. I also wouldn't be too upset about letting Colina go either (he's still only 24 sure, but has only struck out more than 9/9 once in his life, and seems to have some serious health issues. He's the last of the group I'd let go, and only if I was certain I was improving his spot--that is, I don't release him to sign a Matt Wisler type, but rather to sign a Taylor Rogers type).
  19. Cap'n Piranha
    Yeah, Rooker had a 139 wRC+ in AAA in 2019, and 141 this year. He'll be 27 before Spring Training next year. If he's not ready to be a usable regular at the MLB level at this point, his roster spot needs to go to someone else.
  20. Cap'n Piranha
    Balazovic, Duran, Winder, Ryan, and SWR could all be reasonably argued to be elite (or at least have elite potential). Unfortunately, 2 are hurt, 1 is struggling, and another seems to not be in game shape in the middle of the season, somehow. If we're expanding beyond just pitching prospects, Martin and Miranda could also qualify as elite.
  21. Cap'n Piranha
    Dick described that fly out by Donaldson, which came about 40-50 feet short of getting to the wall, as hit "high and deep".
  22. Cap'n Piranha
    Dick just said he doesn;t like the term Immaculate Inning, because it reminds him of the Vikings-Cowboys game where Drew Pearson pushed off, and scored the winning touchdown on the Immaculate Reception. Who wants to tell him that's not the play Immaculate Reception refers to?
  23. Cap'n Piranha
    There's 4-6 guys on there who could legitimately be on a division winning team in some capacity. That's hard to replace.
  24. Cap'n Piranha
    Well, Orlando Arcia was better than Oswaldo, and Yadier Molina is better than Bengie and Jose were, so I say we grab Acuna, get him to sign a 20 year, $300M contract, and start planning his HOF induction for sometime in the 2040's.
  25. Cap'n Piranha
    2021 Twins positives Byron Buxton, when healthy, looking like the best player in the game, bar none. Jorge Polanco proving that, when healthy, he is a bona fide top half of the order hitter for a playoff team Mitch Garver giving hope that 2020 was the fluke, rather than 2019 Bailey Ober stepping up and looking like a solid 4th or 5th starter, despite only 40 innings above high A (and not pitching at all in 2020) Restocking the farm system at the deadline with potentially a legitimate 1/2 hitter, 2 starters, and 1-3 relievers, one of whom could be high impact.
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