Eris

I don't know what happened to Aybar. At one point in his career he was average both offensively and defensively. That last year he achieved that was 2014. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=4082&position=SS Adrianza put up 1 WAR last year playing in 70 games. With above average defense and slighly below average offense. https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=8418&position=2B/SS I would be surprised if Aybar beat out Adrianza. Aybar would need to play much better than he did last year for that to happen.

The tax on players is normally related to “duty” days. This article regarding a lawsuit against the city of Cleveland gives an overview. https://www.google.com/amp/www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-cleveland-jock-tax-0501-biz-20150430-story,amp.html

Joe Mauer can not be viewed separately from his contract. Joe Mauer had a good last season producing 2.3 WAR (data is from Fangraphs). Using Fangraphs estimate of 10.5 million/ free agent WAR, Joe Mauer produced $24 million in value in 2017. This is about equal to his $23 million contract. This was the first time since 2013 that Joe Mauer's production has matched the value of his contract. Put in a different way, were the Twins to trade Joe Mauer, he could be given away if the other team assumed his contract, with the Twins getting nothing in return, that is, his excess value above this contract is approximately 0.

I occasionally dig up some information and either respond to a thread or sometimes (very rarely) start a new thread. About a year ago, following a discussion with my son, I compiled the stat cast data on outfielders and posted the results on a forum. I spent several hours doing this analysis and working out the equations in excel. I think my efforts received 3 responses. It was very discouraging and points to one of the main challenges on TD. What topics would readers like to see covered that would generate interest? Somewhat of a catch 22. It would be helpful if members of TD could upload spreadsheets and photos. I could use advice on interviewing players for articles (I have never tried). I occasionally attend minor league games, was at spring training in Fort Meyers last year. How do I get an interview? What is the etiquette involved? I was in Cincinnati in September and Stuart Turner was playing. I would have loved to have a discussion with him about what it was like being a Rule V pickup and challenges in the big leagues. Is this even possible?

It is not just about the length of games. It is also the start time. Try living on the east coast. One option that I have been thinking about is to move to Denver or further west for the playoffs. I don't think there are any real solutions as long as major TV networks are paying for the rights to broadcasts. The Yankees in prime time, game 5, I am sure Fox Sports made out well. But I am tired.

Yes, of course you would build a team around a great SS. Currently only Lindor and Seager are well above average both defensively and offensively. Not being able to draft a franchise SS in ~4 decades is one of the key failures of the Twins organization.

One area where Robbie Grossman has improved over last year is his outfield defense. Although a much smaller sample size, Grossman's statcast catch probability are statistically similar to Eddie Rosario's (data is from Baseball Savant). For Grossman this is a major improvement over last year where is was was one of the worst outfielder's in all MLB. He is still below average, but not horrendous Grossman's Catch probability 2016 : 2017 4 star, 4/13 : 1/7 3 star, 5/11 : 5/5 2 star, 5/8 : 3/3 1 star, 18/24 : 15/16 % balls caught 42% : 47% Edited to try to get the numbers to not run together. I have put a : between the 2016 and 2017 stats. The fractions are balls caught/opportunities.

Bad/biased umpiring also contributed to the loss column. Cuzzi's foul ball call was probably the worst call in post season history.

And then you have this. A really bad non-strike call. You need to have vision problems to miss this. I also think that Jordan Baker makes the situation worse by ejecting Lackey and Contreras. Sometimes umpires need to acknowledge they messed up, let the player vent and move on. https://www.mlb.com/video/must-c-cubs-go-crazy-after-call/c-1833592183?tid=11493214

There is a delay built into live TV broadcasts to deal with wardrobe malfunctions and inappropriate language. I could not find the exact delay time for baseball games. For Mets radio vs Fox Sports, it is slightly more than 4 seconds to sync radio with TV. My point being is that at some time point for delay, the information is useless. One solution is to have an ~ 10 sec delay on TV broadcasts.

For me, as a fan, there nothing more demoralizing than Saturdays game. Having Sano come up with the bases load in the 9th inning and a chance to put the game away and he swings at 3 pitches out of the strike zone. It is not necessarily about strikeouts, it is about quality at bats, of which BB are a good indicator. Per Fangraphs, during the first 2 months of this season, Sano's BB% and K% was 15.5 and 37.4, respectively. During the last 2 months BB% and K% is 6.6 and 36.5% respectively. I would never have guessed that Sano's K% has actually decreased (every so slightly) from the beginning of the year because the quality of his at bats (as measured by BB%) has plummeted. As measured by OBP, Sano's OBP during the first 2 months of the season was 0.408. During the last 2 months it is 0.280.

This is interesting. Joe West was suspended for inappropriate comments regarding Adrian Beltre. https://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/umpire-joe-west-reportedly-suspended-three-games-for-adrian-beltre-comments/ Interesting how the MLB umpires union works. I guy can't be suspended / or fired because he is a bad umpire. But... http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1636447-ranking-the-blindest-umpires-in-baseball

Using Nichols probability tables http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/users/brooks/public_html/feda/datasets/expectedruns.html 2B, 0 outs RE=1.13 RP= 0.633 3B, 1 out, RE = 0.96 RP = 0.667 1B & 3B, 0 outs, RE =1.75 RP = 0.870 RE = run expectancy, RP = run probability Having Buxton bunt Rosario to 3B, giving up an out, the probability of scoring 1 run increases from 0.633 to 0.667 (4 more favorable outcomes in 100 opportunities). Of course in the process of losing an out, the run expectancy decreases from 1.13 to 0.96. However, this data presents itself only after the outcome of the sacrifice bunt. There is also the possible outcome that Buxton successfully reaches first. There is also the outcome of Rosario getting making an out at 3rd or at second, but these are much smaller and I will ignore them (because I don't know the values). If you take dbminn's data that Buxton's BA when bunting is 0.583, then the probability of scoring at least 1 run is 0.667*(1-0.583) + 0.877*0.583 = 0.789 (favorable outcomes have increased by 19 in 100 opportunities). Even if Buxton's BA on bunting is cut in half (0.583/2 = 0.294), then the run probability is 0.728. These are MLB averages and the results for our Twins may vary, however, the run probability tables suggests that bunting in this situation would increase the probability of the Twins scoring at least one run.

This is one of the most profound statements I have ever read on TD. I mean this in the most positive way. It is 100% correct and belongs in the Hall of Fame of baseball quotes.

Trading for very good pitching is very expensive. Look at the trades for Sale, Miller and Chapman. Those trades remade the Yankees farm system. If you look at the Sale trade, which involved MLB top ranked prospect and a 30, the Twins currently have no one in there farm system to make such a deal. If you look back historically, it would have been the equivalent of the Twins trading Sano (or Buxton) plus Berrios and couple of lower level prospects. If the Twins were 1 starting pitcher away from a legitimate shot at a WS run, I could see a trade for Archer, Gray, or Quintana. The problem is the Twins need at least 1 starting pitcher (maybe 2) and 2 relief pitchers. Obviously the injuries to May and Perkins have an impact. I don't believe the Twins are capable of beating Houston, or Washington or the Dodgers. So I would not trade away top prospects at the trade deadline, especially when prices for quality arms are expensive.

The Verducci article in SI is a interesting article and I would encourage everyone to read it. There is however more to an effective curve that high spin. Kershaw has an average curball spin of 2373 rpm (lower than the league average of 2500 rpm). Kershaw's effectiveness is attributed to hitters not being able to get an early read on his curve because it looks indistinguishable from his fastball out of his hand. Seth Lugo (Mets) who had the highest recorded curveball spin rate in the Statcast era, was not mentioned in the article. The Unteachable Skill. One should always be skeptical when someone indicates something can't be done. It is interesting that a number of pitchers who have great curveballs taught themselves or learned it from their dad and spent many hours crafting the skill. A number things that we have once thought of as being true were not true. Examples, hitters could not distinguish a slider from a fastball, curveballs hurt young arms and therefore many players were never taught how to throw a curveball. The current system (college and MLB) has rewarded young players with elite velocity and as a result there is an industry of baseball academies / training facilities focused on teaching young players the mechanics of throwing a baseball 90-95+ mph. The result is an explosion of TJ injuries. When the incentives change to reward players with elite curveballs (which is maybe now be happening), this industry will change to teach players how to throw effective curveballs. It might be that the mechanics of max velocity are not conducive to throwing a good curveball and therefore someone who throws 100 mph fastball can not throw a good curveball using the same mechanics.

Being able to throw a complete game and its benefits to the team is one of the attributes that is lost in the velocity arms race and the desire for maximum strikeouts. If your starter goes 6 innings, a team will typically need 4 or more pitchers to make it through the game. Long term that has the effect of making the bullpen less effective from overuse. There is an interesting article I was first alerted to by a post in the TD draft thread, on the return of the curveball. Santana doesn't have great velocity or a good curveball, but there are indications that teams are moving beyond velocity. https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/05/23/curveball-clayton-kershaw-lance-mccullers

I did not watch the game on Saturday. According to this report, he hit 94 mph (at least once) during the game. http://www.ncaa.com/news/baseball/article/2017-06-10/brendan-mckay-becomes-louisvilles-all-time-strikeout-leader

That is certainly part of the problem. Per fangraphs, last year he threw 180 curveballs and 122 were strikes (68%). This year, so far, he has thrown 63 curveballs, and only 31 have been strikes (50%). I don't know if this is on Pressly or if batters have figured out that they can't hit his curveball and just layoff the pitch. Someone with more skill than I would need to evaluate the data if there is a difference in his in-zone vs. out of zone strike %. Analytical data cuts both ways. It tells pitchers what they need to throw for strikes, but it also helps batters identify what pitches to avoid.

While it is convenient to place the blame on Pressly and he was also the one demoted, there is a catcher involved in the pitch selection as well. Has Pressly been shaking off the catcher or is he throwing what is called.

Between 2014-2016 (3 years) only 7 relief pitchers have thrown 210 innings (this averages to 70 per year). There is a tendency amount many teams to overuse their bullpen. I am not sure if overuse is the is the issue with Pressly. He threw 75 innings last year (in 72 games). All data is from fangraphs. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=rel&lg=all&qual=210&type=0&season=2016&month=0&season1=2014&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=14,58&filter=&players=0 In 2014, the number of relief pitchers throwing 70 innings was 26. In 2015 it was 20 and in 2016 there were 33 RP pitchers throwing 70 or more innings. I don't what a reasonable number of innings are for relief pitchers to maintain effectiveness, but the data suggests that 70 is too many.

Here are several articles linking TJ to velocity and also innings thrown when they are young. It is one of the big paradoxes of modern baseball. Throwing in the 90s in high school is almost necessary to be drafted or make it to a major college program. It is also increases the risks for injuries. According to Burdi's Wikipedia page, he threw 95 in high school. In Verducci's article there is mention of the innings logged by pitchers selected in the first round. There is more data today. In the Hardball Times article there is mention of a study that suggested the Hall of Fame caliber pitchers where more likely to come from the northern part of the U.S. than from the southern part, suggesting the the number of months spent playing baseball during youth was inversely correlated with MLB success (for pitchers). I have not been able to find that study. https://www.si.com/mlb/2014/04/15/tommy-john-surgery-high-school-pitchers-jameson-taillon http://www.hardballtimes.com/velocitys-relationship-with-pitcher-arm-injuries/ http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2012/11/15/3641206/pre-tommy-john-surgery-pitch-type-velocity-scientific-support

I think one of the aspects of the game that the Twins have improved is taking walks. This also gives players better pitches to hit and is a reflection of being able to take quality at bats. Of the regular players only Rosario and Mauer have a decrease in BB%. The BB% data is from fangraphs. 2016 2017 Sano 10.9 17.1 Buxton 6.9 10.4 Kepler 9.4 11.4 Rosario 3.4 2.9 Dozier 8.8 11.3 Polanco 6.3 8.3 Grossman 14.1 19.1 Mauer 13.7 9.1 It looks like either Rosario has not gotten the message about improve this aspect of the game or is not capable of making the adjustments. Last year there was a lot a criticism directed at Sano. He is taking much better at bats and the results have improved substantially. I suspect that unless Rosario's results improve he will sent down. A trade seems unlikely because his value is low at this time.

I was at the game last night. We went to see Trout play. It was very classical Alex Meyers. I didn't think he would make it out of the first. Recovered to have a 1, 2, 3 second. Struggled in the 3rd. Pitched a great 4th and lost it in the 5th.

I agree with your assessment about Escobar. Except for 2014, he has never had above average defensive numbers and needs to hit to maintain a roster spot. This year and last he has not hit well enough to justify a roster spot. The Twins could use an additional outfielder. However, they have been managing except for the game on Friday where they PH for Rosario and Buxton an thereby needing to put Esobar and Grossman in the outfield. Zach Granite might give the Twins defensive flexibility, but he would benefit by playing everyday in AAA. I don't think calling up Nick Gordon this year is good use of a 40 man roster spot. He does not need to be added to the 40 man until after next season.