Eris

I like that Danny Santana has made the most of his opportunity and that Buxton should have been sent down. I would add however that during the 5th inning against Berrios, Lindor's 3 run double into left-center field should have been caught (or at least Buxton would have caught it). I was disappointed that Santana did not lay out for the ball as it was the turning point of the game. Not sure if his past hamstring injury impacted the play. Santana is one of the feel good stories for the Twins this year and I hope he keeps it up. David

I think Mike Trout is somewhat of an exception from a scouting perspective. There were a number of things that conspired to allow him to fall to the Angels, including that his hometown of Millville NJ is in the middle of nowhere as far as NJ is concerned. In NJ the baseball high school powerhouses are in northern NJ, an area that is heavily scouted (Twins high picks from this area include Willie Banks and Shooter Hunt, both of which did not turn out well). His drafting by the Angels is covered here: http://www.ocregister.com/articles/trout-377425-morhardt-bane.html Note the connection between Jeff Trout (Twins 5th round draft pick) and the Angels scout Greg Morhardt (also a Twins farmhand). With regards to Buxton's development, one of the items that is difficult to predict is a players ability to make adjustments after pitchers identify weaknesses. There are many examples of this on the Twins and elsewhere (e.g., there is an excellent article on TD from last year on Plouffe's inability to hit or layoff a low inside fastball, sorry I can't find the article). In Buxton's case he can not hit a major league curve ball. In the minors (and high school), few pitchers can throw good curve balls for strikes. In the majors, most pitchers (or at least many) can throw curveballs for strikes. Until Buxton learns how to make this adjustment, he will struggle at the plate. If he can not make this adjustment, his ceiling will be low. If he makes the adjustment, he is an all-star. As has been mentioned elsewhere on TD it would appear that Buxton's problem is pitch recognition, if this is indeed the situation, it will be a while (maybe months, maybe never) before he can be a 0.300 hitter.

This means that some of the Twins players are way over matched because they lack plate discipline (Rosario) or can't hit a curveball (Buxton). At some point they need to figure this out or they will be learning this in Rochester. My list to send down would be Rosario, Buxton and Park, in that order. I would have the least amount a patience with Rosario, in part because he has spent most of last year in the majors. I would give Buxton about another month. The difficulty for the Twins is that unless one of Rosario, Buxton or Kepler starts playing well, they do not have many options. If Kepler plays well, I would be inclined to send Rosario down. This was a nice spreadsheet. Simple and to the point and highlighting a potentially major issue for the Twins.

Rosario is a gamer. He plays the game right. That is why Molitor likes him. He has one blemish on his record for substance violation (marijuana?) Why would we want to trade some like this? He should be a fixture in the Twins outfield for years. The Sano experiment is just that. An experiment and in the end Sano will be at first or a DH, the present log jam is only temporary. I look forward to a Twins outfield of Rosario, Buxton and Kepler.

One aspect that supports the "Twins System is Broken Theory" is that they have been fleeced on many of their trades in recent years which suggests deficiencies within the organization in evaluating talent. There is a separate (although older) thread on this topic so I won't rehash old arguments. http://twinsdaily.com/topic/20486-the-twins-capabilities-results-for-acquiring-talent-through-trades/?hl=eris&do=findComment&comment=414599

There is an interesting discussion about this on the Mets blog http://metsmerizedonline.com/2016/02/are-we-rushing-to-judgment-on-mejia.html/ This link is from my son, who is a Mets fan. One other factor to consider is that boldenone has a very long detection time. Here are two links This one giving a detection time of 4-5 months https://www.steroid.com/steroid_detection_times.php However, this article indicates that esters of boldenone can remain detectable for 16-18 months http://www.evolutionary.org/equipoise-boldenone-undecylenate Therefore, before we condemn Mejia, we would need to know more about the test that was administered. For example, is it a yes/no (detect / not detect) test, or did the test measure concentrations of boldenone in the body? Until this information is known, there exists the possibility that Mejia tested positive twice for the same violation. Otherwise we are left to ponder the question of how someone could be so stupid as to throw away millions of dollars in career earnings especially knowing he would be subjected to repeat testing. I think historically, one of the biggest resistances to the testing of PED had been objections from the player association. Here is an interview with Tom Glavine about this in 2002. http://savannahnow.com/stories/053002/SPTbravesextra.shtml#.VsCfAvkrJUY The current rules on PED drugs could be improved. But it is very complicated. We treat marijuana use (probably not a performance enhancer) as the same level of offense as steroids (definitely a performance enhancer). I think teams should have the right to terminate the contracts of players who have violated league rules (e.g., Ervin Santana). But what about teams who benefit? There should be consequences for them as well. The only way to eliminate the abuse entirely is to have testing procedures that are mandatory for everyone and frequent enough to eliminate all PED. However, even then, there are challenges as with HGH or testosterone which could probably, with enough effort, be dosed in ways that are virtually non-detectable. Another issue becomes what about people who are framed? Where there is enough money or prestige involved, people will eventually bend rules to their benefit. Because I can sit behind my computer an imagine a situation where someone pays off a bartender or hires an escort, maybe its is just a overly exuberant fan, or a jealous/hated teammate who doses a drink with a banned substance, eventually this will happen.

I enjoyed this article. Thank you. Hire an advanced sabermatrician to be incorporated into the scouting system with the goal of projecting future late round draft picks that will profile as top of the rotation starting pitchers.

Todd Frazier was both offensively and defensively a better player than Plouffe. I think if the Twins got this return for Plouffe people on TD would be disappointed. Don't expect to trade Plouffe for an above average starting pitcher or a future above average catcher. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/reds-sell-todd-frazier-for-low-upside-in-three-way-deal/

Rosario had a 2.3 WAR last year, which ranks him at 42nd among outfielders in WAR. Carlos Gomez had a WAR of 2.6. Alex Gordon 2.8, Ben Revere 1.9. I am not sure why people are so down on Rosario, as a rookie, he was an average or slightly better that average MLB outfielder. His ISO is 0.192 which is ranked 23rd (ahead of George Springer). He had 11 DRS, which is ranked 15th among all outfielders. He has areas for improvement such as a K% (24.9) that is too high and a BB% (3.2) that is too low. Go back and watch some to the throws he made from the outfield last year. The baserunners are probably still shaking their heads wondering what happened. Rosario had 16 assists from the outfield last year (which ranks 3rd among all outfielders). Despite is deficiencies, Rosario is a decent outfielder and an all-around decent player not great at anyone item but better than average at most. He also has seems to have a great baseball sense. I believe that somewhere on the TD boards is an article describing Rosario as a Molitor type player. I believe that he will be in the Twins outfield for a long time. Note for the fangraphs data, I used 400 PA as Rosario did not meet the qualified.

A different way of looking at this is 12% of the plays are then determined by fielders capabilities. In a typical (?) game, 40 AB with 10Ks means 30 balls in play. 12% of that is about 4 plays / game. This is about 640 plays per year. How many times is a close game decided on one play made or not made. I think it is quite a few. As an example the 2015 World Series outcome is probably changed based on 3 plays that the Mets failed to make. Cespedes not catching the inside the park home run leading off the 1st game. Murphy's error. Lucas Duda's throwing error. There is also the failure to pick off the runner at 2nd in one of the games. Over a course of the 162 game season, winning 10 games is very significant.

Plouffe's numbers are quite good and many teams are in a similar situation as the Twins. I looked at only RBI totals and compared Plouffe's 86 RBIs to how that would rank on other teams. The data is from Fangraphs. I have included the Twins. For ties, I gave the higher number. Rank Teams 1 9 2 15 3 5 4 1 Plouffe's 86 RBI's would have ranked 1st on 9 teams (including the Cardinals and the Mets) The worst comparison would be with the Blue Jays were he would be ranked 4th in RBIs. Therefore with Sano and Plouffe, with Sano hopefully projecting to have a 100 RBI season, and if Plouffe maintains production (he had 80 RBIs in 2014) the Twins will have better production from their 2nd best bat than 24 other teams. I think peoples expectations are a little bit unrealistic. There are only 6 teams (Angels, Blue Jays, Cubs, Reds, Rockies, and Royals), where 86 RBIs was not at least the 2nd best RBI production on the team. Edited from Original post: There is a different way to look at the numbers I have provided. Looking at only the 2015 numbers (without projecting Sano for 2016), 21 teams had better production from their top RBI man than the Twins. This was a problem. For 2016, if Sano delivers 100 RBIs and Plouffe maintains his current production, the Twins will have a very competitive 1,2 RBI machine.

Another potential issue that drives the age towards younger players is the travel schedule. Years ago it was that every get away game was an afternoon game. The lack of afternoon getaway games poses additional and very significant demands on sleeping schedules. For example, any team playing a night games followed by a 3 hour flight would expect to get to their hotels at 4 or 5 in the morning. The older you get, the more brutal this schedule becomes. This couples with the elimination of certain stimulants also gives an advantage to younger players.

But, the Royals also obtained Wade Davis in that trade. Although it is too soon to pick winners and losers because Tampa traded Meyers to the Padres. Meyers, after winning Rookie of the Years, has been somewhat of a disappointment. The Royals look very shrewd by picking up Davis in that trade, without whom they probably would not have won the WS this year.

How is it that other organizations have become much better at drafting and developing pitchers (the Cardinals, for example) than the Twins. Yes there has been progress as the Twins have drafted some pitchers that are potential success stories (Berrios, Jay, Duffey). As a comparison, the Twins stockpiled these pitchers during the recent stretch of 90 loss seasons, while the Cardinals developed their farm system while making it to the playoff most years. Going back a decade, Glen Perkins is probably only good success story of a pitcher drafted and developed within the Twins organization. Are we moving in the right direction? Yes. But clearly, there is a problem in the Twins ability to draft and develop pitchers. The Twins have gotten the short end of many trades over the last decade. This would be an indication that our scouting department is weak in comparison to other organizations (or it could also mean that the front office doesn't value the input of the scouting department when making trades). I've read with envy the haul that the Braves have gotten in some of their recent trades (although I would never have traded Simmons). Those trades are difference makers for the future of the organization. They have acquired 3 to 4 players that will make significant impact several years from now. This is what you expect from a rebuilding team. Where are the similar Twins trades from the lost era of 2011-2014. Progress in this area? Too soon to tell. Free Agent signings? How many FA have the Twins signed during the past decade that have exceeded expectations over the course of their contract. Mike Redmond may have been the last one. Who was last short-stop drafted and developed by Twins who became an above average MLB SS? Greg Gagne was drafted by the Yankees. So it has been more than 3 decades without an internal success story at one of the most critical defensive positions? I have read some nice reviews on TD about some of our minor league SS (Gordon, Vielma) and it is too soon to give up on Polanco. The next several years will tell. I am not really sure if this matters but since 1990, the Twins have won 15 gold glove awards. During the same period, the St. Louis Cardinals have won 34. The Atlanta Braves have 29. The gold glove awards are probably not the best indicator because they voted however it is an indication that the Twins have been lacking, as a team, stand out defensive contributors. http://minnesota.twins.mlb.com/min/history/awards.jsp http://stlouis.cardinals.mlb.com/stl/history/awards.jsp http://mlb.mlb.com/atl/history/awards.jsp My conclusion is, that based on history, the damning statement is quite accurate. I think that there has been progress in some areas (drafting, pitcher development) during the last 5 years. In many other areas like trades and FA signings the Twins seems to be trailing the competition.

The above posters have it correct. Players can only opt for free agency the 2nd time they are outrighted (unless they have 3 years of MLB experience or are a super 2) The CBA: http://mlb.mlb.com/pa/pdf/cba_english.pdf See section XX-D on page 92 of the above pdf. The relevant part is copied below in (2). D. Outright Assignment to Minor League club (1) Election of Free Agency—3-Year Player Any Player who has at least 3 years of Major League service, or who qualified as a “Super Two” Player under Article VI(E)(1) as of the conclusion of the prior championship season, and whose contract is assigned outright to a Minor League club may elect, in lieu of accepting such assignment, to become a free agent. In the event that such a Player with at least 3 years of Major League service does not elect free agency in lieu of accepting such assignment, he may elect free agency between the end of the then current Major League season and the next following October 15, unless such Player is returned to a Major League roster prior to making such election. Any Player who accepts an outright assignment as a “Super Two” Player will not retain a right to elect free agency following the season. (2) Election of Free Agency—Second Outright Assignment Any Player whose contract is assigned outright to a Minor League club for the second time or any subsequent time in his career may elect, in lieu of accepting such assignment, to become a free agent. In the event that such Player does not elect free agency in lieu of accepting such assignment, he may elect free agency between the end of the then current Major League season and the next following October 15, unless such Player is returned to a Major League roster prior to making such election.

The situation with Big Papi is far more complicated than the Twins trying to turn him into a high contact hitter. As I recall, the Twins questioned his work ethic and ability to recover from a wrist injury. From Fangraphs it is interesting to note that his K% went down at Boston and his HR went up and there was a significant increase in ISO. Steroids could also be a factor in this. I would like to think (because I am Twins fan) that the Twins were a relatively clean team and discourage this type of abuse, but we will never really know because 96 of the 100 players who failed the confidential drug testing have never been disclosed (although the numbers average out to about 3 players / team) https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/03/26/david-ortiz-still-haunted-failed-drug-test/Cvcd1E7am8OybqLpNA6uKP/story.html

Even a great bullpen arm might not be equivalent. From Fangraphs the top relief pitcher this past year were Cody Allen and Chapman with a WAR of 2.6 and 2.5 respectively. There were 32 starting pitchers with a WAR 3.0 or greater. In Mariano Rivera's bests season (2008) he had a WAR of 3.2. Also Denard Span has a career WAR average of about 3 / season. Trading Plouffe for a relief pitcher seems like a poor idea. Additionally, we have no idea whether or not Sano will be a decent defensive 3rd baseman. As the Blue Jays found with playing Colabello in the field, someone who is contributing significantly offensively can seriously impact the team in a negative way when they are a defensive liability (-14 DRS). Because the Twins continued to play Plouffe at 3rd last year, I suspect that there are people in the Twins organization who question Sano's ability at third base.

The "Twins Way" should be important. This is about team culture. You want players who work hard, play smart, throw to the right bases, help and support each other, etc. Look no further than the Nationals as to what happens when the team culture, driven by a few difficult personalities, falls apart. A couple of months back there is an article / interview where Hicks is crediting Hunter for his success by helping him prepare for his at bats, especially with two strikes. What struck me about the interview is that apparently this was not happening prior to Hunter rejoining the Twins. How could Hicks go through years within the Twins system and not have other players / coaches repeatedly coach / help teammates become better players. This was one of the failures of the Twins organization after Tom Kelley left.--too many prospects would reach the majors and not know how to play fundamentally sound baseball. (In Hick's case it may also represent him being difficult to coach and not receptive to advice).

Maybe the Twins don't think that Sano will be an effective third baseman long term either because of his capabilities or size.

I think a trade for Plawecki would be nice. Great defensively but not so good offensively. He would be a better hitter than Stuart Turner. I am not sure why the Mets would trade Plawecki. No thanks on D'Arnaud. The Royals showed how a poor throwing catcher can be a significant liability during the post season.

Rob Deer seems to be a good comparison. He hit 0.220 with an OPS of 0.766. His career %K was 31.2%. His minor league stats (%K and BA) were comparable to his major league stats. His major league career was 14 years. I think Walker is much better (or at least has significant potential to be much better) than Deer.

There is a limited budget, and if the Twins sign Davis, does that me we don't sign a good starting pitcher? I would rather have a great pitcher. The Twins were not horrible in runs scored. The Blue Jays led the league with 891 runs scored. The Yankees has 764. Royals 724, Twin 696, Cubs 689, Mets 683. Runs scored was not the Twins problem. We have several players who don't really have a good position and should be at DH. These include Mauer, Vargas, Arcia and Walker. Obviously, none of these players would be as productive a Davis, but does that mean we are giving up on them? For some, that answer might be yes. How about keep Plouffe, play Sano at first, Mauer at DH. Acquiring an above average catcher is also a greater need.

There are several decent articles that try to address this. The short answer is that there does not appear to be a correlation between height and various parameters associated with pitching effectiveness or durability. The first article written by Glenn P. Greenberg indicates there is a positive correlation between **The taller he is, the higher the round he would be drafted ** The taller he is, the more likely he would become an established major league starting pitcher http://sabr.org/research/does-pitcher-s-height-matter He also mentions that the rule doesn't seem to apply to LH pitchers, presumable because of the scarcity of LH pitchers http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/offseason-notes-a-graph-of-pitcher-height-vs-gb/

Maybe this is posted somewhere on TD. In January 2015 there was an article posted in USA today evaluating large $ value contracts for pitchers. There are not many success stories? The challenge with many of the free agents is that with few exceptions there performance starts dropping with age. And it is often not known until hindsight who will perform well in their mid 30's. http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/01/max-scherzer-james-shields-free-agent-pitchers-contracts-100-million-mlb Because of their lack of success in the post-season, would David Price or Johnny Cueto be available on a 3-4 year contract and therefore potentially with less risk. Although it has been mentioned by others in this forum, I too find the number of pitchers released by the Twins who have found success elsewhere to be disturbing. Granted these are relievers and not true Aces, it indicates that the Twins have difficulty projecting / developing pitchers which bodes very poorly for identifying future talent in trades.

Here is some limited data from the Rays. The Garza trade netted the Rays 16.2 WAR and the Twins -1.4 (Note in doing this I have only determined the time with the organization so in this way the analysis is not complete because the data has not been collected to infinity). The Rays trade Garza to the Cubs. Rays net 16.5 WAR and the Cubs 6.3 WAR Rays trade Shields and Davis to the Royals for Myers and others. Rays net 7.5 WAR and Royals 13.7 WAR (although this is more complicated as Myers was traded to the Padres after two years in Tampa)