Eris

For me, Cooperstown is a bucket list item. Cooperstown is not out of the way from Rochester, NY. I would go. It is only a matter to scheduling 3-6 hours on your way to New York City. So unless you have tickets to a Broadway show that requires you to be in New York City at a certain time, I would schedule time for Cooperstown. (I should also note that I have not taken my spouse to Cooperstown as she does not enjoy the history of baseball. She misrepresented her interest in baseball while we were dating).

I was there about 6 years ago. From my perspective it was well worth the trip. My son and I are planning on going back in 2-3 weeks before he goes to college. Part of it depends on the rest of your family. Would they enjoy spending 3-6 hours in a baseball museum? There is a lot of baseball history there. I really enjoyed the Negro Baseball exhibit. I bought the 2 Twins WS collectors mugs from the gift shop. I was amazed to discover that the scores of several of the games were incorrect. I assume you meant driving from Rochester MN. Have you seen Niagra Falls? That would give you an additional reason to be in the area. Taking a more northern route will add about 8 hours of driving to your trip.

Every player, the manager, even the interim GM is playing for a position next year or the following years or for more $$ in arbitration. Don't expect any of them to go out and not try their best.

I think it is very unfortunate the both Mauer and Morneau had their careers severely impacted by concussions. We could also add Corie Koskie to this list. How many other teams in MLB have had their 2 best players impacted in this manner. The Twins, their fans, and all baseball were robbed of two very good players in their prime. This is just plain unlucky and it not necessary to blame anyone. Morneau was was one of my favorite players. I am saddened by what happened. I will root for him wherever he plays. We can not do anything about the unlucky part. However, there is a substantial failure to plan. "Total system failure" is correct. They include: Trading away Wilson Ramos for 1 good year of Capps without have an alternative MLB capable catcher in the system. Failure to draft a develop any good starting pitchers since Brad Radke. Failure to draft/trade/sign as FA a decent shortstop since Christian Guzman. Trading away Denard Span for someone they have not been able to develop. And the number of prospects who spend time on the 25 man roster but don't know the fundamentals of baseball. Hopefully, these are what Terry Ryan is being held accountable for and there should also be plenty of coaches and scouts in the system being asked about their contributions to to "total system failure."

There are multiple ways in which such a comparison could be done. Part of this would depend on what is being looked for. Most teams that make it into and advance in the playoffs have one or two dominant pitcher. If we try to answer the question of how to obtain or how most teams obtain 1 or 2 dominant starting pitchers you could start by looking at what is the best way to obtain dominant pitchers. It is of course not the only question that can be answered. Another similar question is how to obtain a dominant bullpen. You could take the teams with the best pitching WAR and run comparisons for there as well. I think what we would find is that if a theory is valid, it should be true no matter how you started with the data set, assuming you sample size was large enough. It may also be the case that what worked in 1980 does not work today. If you run the 1994-2016 timeline on starting pitching WAR 26 Johan Santana--42.7 WAR 32 Brad Radke-- 38.7 WAR 82 Carl Pavano--23.4 WAR 83 Ervin Santana--23.4 WAR 88 Ricky Nalasco--22.6 WAR Maybe the timeline of 1994-2016 is too broad to be useful (and it favors pitchers near the end of their careers), but you don't have to get very far down the list before the pitchers are quite average. This WAR should also be broken down by team as the Twins have benefited little from the career WAR of the last players on this list. If you look at team starting pitching WAR over this time period, The Braves, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox, and White Sox top the list. And the Twins are 23rd--about 100 WAR behind the teams leading that stat. The premise would be because the Twins have had few (only two) very good to great starting pitchers over this time period.

One reason D. Santana is still on the team is that he provides a significant amount of roster flexibility. This allowed the Twins to send both Rosario and Buxton to the minors to get their act together. To carry an extra pitcher. It is a good idea to have a super utility player. The problem is that Santana does not do anything particularly well.

This is how I think this comparison should be done: Take the top 50-100 pitchers by WAR over the time period of interest. Break down the WAR by the teams he played on and method of acquisition. You would then be able to determine what is the most effective way to acquire pitching WAR and which teams are good at each method. The challenge here is that I can not figure out how to do this other than copying data into an excel spreadsheet and manipulating from there. Of the top 50 pitchers from 1994-2016, only 5 played there entire career for the team that drafted them. It is interesting to note that the top three pitchers on this list, Randy Johnson (drafted by the Expos) and Pedro Martinez (signed out of DR by the Dodgers) and Greg Maddux (drafted by the Cubs) earned most of their WAR for teams other than the original signing team.

The players to be traded are all mentioned above. One item that I would focus on is trying to alleviate the coming 40 man roster crunch by focusing on A level prospects who don't need to be added to the 40 man for 2 or 3 years. From this point of view, these would be higher risk trades. If we are being honest about the situation most of the players will not bring any of a potential buyers top 20 prospects. E. Santana and Dozier might / should get a top 10 prospect.

Beltran (who normally plays RF) hurt his hamstring about 2 weeks ago which is why Hicks has been seeing more playing time recently. Hicks is only slightly worse than A-Rod at the plate but much better than Beltran in the outfield. Beltran is hitting 0.297 and otherwise having a good year. http://nypost.com/2016/07/04/carlos-beltrans-hamstring-may-actually-allow-a-rod-to-play/ (Note I should have quoted Stringer Bell's excellent comments above).

One of the challenges in signing Ian Desmond was his qualifying offer. The Rangers gave up the 19th overall pick in this years draft for Desmond. As only the top 10 slots are protected, the Twins would have lost their 1st round pick (15th overall, used to draft Alex Kirilloff). There are many problems with the qualify offer. As it relates to Ian Desmond, only a team that was 1 or 2 players away from competing for a World Series run would / should give up a first round pick. From this perspective the Rangers made a wise choice. From the Twins perspective, with Ian Desmond, they would have maybe the 3rd or 4th worst record in baseball rather than the worst. An improvement from the current dreadful situation, but not enough to justify losing a first round selection. The Rangers can "recoup" their lost pick by making Desmond a qualifying offer after this season, but then must be prepared to pay him close to $16 million.

I was watching one of the games versus the Yankees and one of the Yankee commentators indicated that Buxton's swing was too long and he was in need of work to develop a more compact swing. His long swing leaves him susceptible to breaking balls. I don't know how to do such an analysis but it would be useful if someone on this board broke down Buxton's swing and compared it to others.

The bad asset management starts with this team placing players on the 40 man roster before they are ready to contribute and / or poorly utilizing option years once they are on the 40 man roster. A number of these players may have benefited from more time in the minors. Examples include Buxton, Hicks, Berrios, Carlos Gomez and Arcia. I am not sure why the Twins have been so poor in assessing whether or not some of these players are ready to contribute at the MLB level. I think some of the decisions are based on hope. Some are based on poor roster construction.

Peak value is often only determined in hindsight. In hindsight, Plouffe should have been moved at the trade deadline last summer when the Twins were in the middle of a pennant race (or at least thought they were). The value this past winter for 3rd basemen was not very good. For example, look at what the Reds got in return for Todd Frazier, someone who is a much better offensive and defensive player than Plouffe. Frazier was also available at the trade deadline last summer and he wasn't moved, presumably because the Reds where not happy with what offered. The Mets need at 3rd baseman. It was reported that they made inquiries about Danny Valencia (but not Plouffe). If the Twins put Plouffe on waivers, would he clear waivers?

Learning how to take quality at bats should be a requirement at the major league level. For whatever reason, Arcia was not able to make the adjustments necessary to improve his hitting. It is about time that the Twins either send to the minors or release players who are not willing or able to do this.

No. We forgot Drew Butera. Butera is having a career year. I think we would take 0.273 BA from our starting catcher right now. Sean Gilmartin has been up for a brief stint with the Mets, but has spent most of tis year in the minors getting stretched out.

On Pat Dean. My thoughts on watching him pitch is to question whether MLB scouting has become too reliant on velocity. (It is easy to measure). I get that more velocity increases the margin for error. But Jepsen throws 95-96. Graham 97, Jim Hoey was up there as well. Could someone like Greg Maddux make it in todays MLB world?

I tried to edit my previous post but I can't do that (not sure why). I would add. This comes after the learning this spring that Joe Mauer played last season with double vision. Perhaps both Joe Mauer and the Twins organization (depending on their insurance situation) would have been better off if Joe would have acknowledged his injury last season.

In this case one never knows for sure what Johan Santana could have been done to arrive in camp better prepared and if that would have made a difference in the outcome. (Your point could be correct). I think Johan Santana was a very intense competitor and by management calling into question his work ethic, he went out and threw when he should not have. That was the end of his career. Would the outcome have been different if the Mets management would have taken a different approach. That was my point. This is what is in debate here. Are Perkins and Hughes really hurt or are they just wimps? Management is doing everyone a disservice by taking these public and I really question their motives. And in the end there is not positive long term benefit that will arise from an environment where players are discourage from bringing injuries to the attention of management. We are not talking about Pablo Sandoval here. At least in Perkins case (as others TD members have noted) he was pitching hurt last year when he should not have been pitching. My recollection of Phil Hughes is that his career started very well until he injured his hamstring and then ankle while trying to pitch through the injury. He was never really same pitcher after those injuries (I am not sure why and if there is a correlation).

I think it is really bad when management questions the work ethic of hurt players they have signed to longer term contracts. If these players had such poor work habits, maybe management should have done their homework and recognized this before signing them to long term contracts. How bad can it get? Below are some excerpts from the linked articles about Johan Santana. Several weeks after the initial article appeared, he was diagnosed with another shoulder tear and has never pitched again. PORT ST. LUCIE — The Mets believe it is “self-evident” that Johan Santana reported to spring training last month out of pitching shape, a result of offseason inactivity. Asked on Saturday that very question — did Santana arrive in Port St. Lucie out of pitching shape — general manager Sandy Alderson told the Daily News, “That is fair to say, based on what we have seen in camp.” That is not a shocking statement; if Santana is not pitching, it follows that he cannot possibly be in pitching shape. But it does underscore the team’s frustration and surprise that an essential player was not ready to pitch earlier in the Grapefruit League season, and is questionable for Opening Day. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-frustrated-out-of-shape-santana-article-1.1277872 http://nypost.com/2013/03/29/shoulder-re-tear-could-finish-santanas-tenure-with-mets/

I would extend the timeline to 1988 and include Tom Herr as the worst 2B and possible the worst Twin of all time. His stats were much better than I remember them BA 263, OPS 679 in 89 games. However, he had a very negative attitude and clearly did not want to play in Minnesota and was not shy about voicing his opinion about this.

Matthew Capps signed a minor league contract with the Diamondbacks earlier this year. He had a brief stint with the Baves last year in spring training and for a short period in their minors. http://www.rotoworld.com/player/mlb/4296/matt-capps He has appeared in 2 games in AAA this year. http://www.milb.com/player/index.jsp?player_id=448165#/career/R/pitching/2016/ALL

Most of this (maybe all of this) is on Meyer. He has two great pitches, if he could consistently throw strikes with both pitches he would be a starter. If he can only throw his fastball for a strike, he might not even make it as a reliever. Compare Meyer to Berrios. Meyer, when he is on, has better stuff than Berrios. What Berrios has though is the ability to consistently throw 3 pitches for strike. Because of his control, Berrios will be a much better pitcher. (A comparison between Duffy and Meyer might be better because both essentially have only 2 pitches)

I tuned in to watch Jose Berrios pitch last night. I thought Jerry Layne had a horrific game last night. He must have had at least 10 ball and strike calls incorrect. Both Berrios and Dallas Keuchel were unhappy with the strike zone. And of course Murphy was ejected over this. Is there a website that grades umpires in this regard? What does MLB do about this? There doesn't seem to be anything that happens to umpires that really screw-up. What does he/MLB do to improve the situation/effectiveness between now and the next games Jerry Layne calls?

I have this MLB via the At Bat app on my Iphone. This year I bought an Apple TV and stream the games on TV. I think it is a great app. I live New Jersey and the Twins are only blacked out when playing the Yankees or occasionally the Mets or on Saturdays. The full package (or better if you can get a discount, read the above posts) is well worth it for a season of baseball. If I still lived in Minnesota and could not watch the Twins I would probably insist on the 50% discount before purchasing. Also, national broadcast games (Fox on Saturday, and ESPN on Sunday night) are also blacked out based on the time the game starts. That part is a bummer. Keep in mind that post-season games are also not covered.

Even though this is a small sample size, you can judge whether players are taking good at bats or are just unlucky. Rosario, Santana and Escobar swing at the most pitches outside the strike zone (O-swing, fangraphs) at (42.3, 33.9, and 33.5% respectively). At least Santana and Escobar have a high contact percent on pitches inside the strike zone at 97 and 94% respectively. Rosario's z-contact % is 69% (the worst on the team. From my perspective Rosario should be sent down as he is taking very poor at bats. Sometimes players are unlucky over a short period of time, but management should insist they take quality at bats. The problem that the Twins have is that Rosario is currently the best defensive outfielder on the MLB roster. I would be inclined to bring Kepler up and actually play him. Kepler's problem appears to be that he was not aggressive enough (z-swing of 40%) at the plate and took to many strikes. The other option the Twins would have is to call-up Darin Mastroianni as the back-up outfielder and play Arcia everyday. (This option creates 40 man roster logistical issues and also a poor outfield defense with Arcia, Santana and Sano). But either way, Rosario should be sent down.