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Eris

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Everything posted by Eris

  1. Eris
    Bill James Pythagorean Expectation is that a team will have one win for every 10 runs. The Twins have scored 615 runs and have 64 wins which is 9.6 runs per win. Keaschall has accumulated -13 DRS over 46 games in the OF. ( data is from FanGraphs). Replacing Keaschall with Pete Crow-Armstrong, who is the best outfielder in baseball currently, would have saved 18 runs over these games which will give about 1.89 wins (18/9.6). So instead of being 4 games out of the wildcard the Twins would be 2 games behind. Realistically, Jenkins or Rodriguez would not contribute at the level of Pete Crow-Armstrong and the actual win expectation difference is less than 2 games. There are other reasons why Jenkins and Rodriguez should be called up, but the expectation they are the difference between the Twins making the playoffs or not should not be one of them.
  2. Eris
    I really appreciate these updates and the effort put into this. One item that would be helpful is if the previous rankings reflected the highest ranking of the prospect. For example, in Spring 2025, Rodriguez was the TD #2 prospect and being currently ranked 6th represents a fairly significant drop. Similarly, after acquired in the 2025 trade deadline Tait was the TD 4th ranked prospect ( this is from memory I couldn’t find the actual ranking).
  3. Eris
    The challenge with one dimensional hitters is that there are people (and now perhaps computers) who work long hours trying to figure out how to get hitters out. Once they find a weakness it is up to hitter to compensate. Daniel Murphy likely had an oversized impact on the Twins hitting philosophy. What is overlooked is that like Brian Dozier, Daniel Murphy’s success was short-lived. I look on in disbelief every time Buxton or Lewis take an outside pitch and ground it to the third baseman.
  4. Eris
    “The Twins called up their top prospect on August 7“ Nitpicking an otherwise fine article. Culpepper was the TD third ranked prospect behind Jenkins and Lackey. Does Culpepper have the defensive tools to remain at SS and be above average defensively.
  5. Eris
    If I am remembering correctly from the scouting reports Lewis was never thought likely to stick at SS. From that perspective the Twins did Lewis and themselves a huge disservice by playing him at SS in the minors as compared with better identifying his best position and giving him experience at that position in the minors. (A similar situation occurred with both Lee and Martin).
  6. Eris
    CS comparisons in A ball. Tait was 32/98 with Philadelphia. Diaw was 3/26.
  7. Eris
    I do find that my mlb.com dollars don’t go as far as they did several years ago because of Apple TV night, Peacock night, Netflix night, maybe Amazon Prime night in the future. I am seriously debating if I should just get a good internet radio and listen to the games.
  8. Eris
    Nice article. Thank you for sharing.
  9. Eris
    Longevity and consistency matter. Hrbek had 10 straight years where his WAR was never below 2.5.
  10. Eris
    The biggest Twins issue is not money but drafting and developing players. Hence the Twins have ended up with a roster full of DH types who lack speed and athleticism and can’t play defense. Injuries are part of the game. The Twins have three players whose careers were cut short by concussions (Mauer, Morneau and Koskie). I think the Carlos Correa resigning was very questionable in part because two other clubs (Mets and Giants) rescinded their contracts to Correa after evaluating is leg/ankle.
  11. Eris
    The Twins biggest threat is themselves. Since August 1, on games they have won their BA with RISP is 0.375. On games they have lost their BA with RISP was 0.154.
  12. Eris
    This is one of the challenges associated with international signees. Rodriquez has been in the Twins system since July of 2019. The best option is to call him up to give him an opportunity. The Twins have given more 40 plate appearances each to 3 outfielders with negative WAR. (Outman, Roden and Wallner).
  13. Eris
    I would add to this that Jenkins doesn’t need to be added to the 40 man roster until next December. Adding him this year reduces flexibility for the off-season. The Twins have 5 pitchers on the 60 day IL.
  14. Eris
    The Twins hitters looked really helpless against Dobnak. Not sure if this says more about Dobnak or more about the Twins.
  15. Eris
    Defensively the team ranks near the bottom (28th using FanGraphs). There is really not much can be done in this regard with the current roster. Only the catchers and Kreidler are above average defensively.
  16. Eris
    It is also about execution. Gómez’s pitch caught way too much of the plate. The run expectancy with runners on 2nd and 3rd with one out is 0.887 and with the bases loaded and one out it is close to 1.5.
  17. Eris
    Quoted from the article. “The Minnesota Twins offense has been among baseball's best all season and currently leads the American League in runs scored.” Interesting in that both statements are true. I think this shows up because the Twins offense is more feast or famine and the averages hide these offensive inconsistencies. The Twins are 12-14 in 1 run games. The Twins are not losing games because of a high number of blown saves
  18. Eris
    If I am remembering correctly, Dobnak had some type of middle finger injury that affected his ability to throw his sinker.
  19. Eris
    I think part of the reason is members of the national media typically write for large market teams and their coverage tends to be favorable to “their” team. For example, Jon Heyman. One would not expect to see an article from him stating the GM of the Yankees really screwed up with their catching situation and will have to make a huge overpay in acquiring Ryan Jeffers to fix this. Instead you will find articles like because the Twins need to cut payroll or they can’t afford to sign him next year, Ryan Jeffers will be available on very favorable trade terms for your favorite teams World Series run. Buxton articles are similar—need to cut payroll and very favorable trade terms
  20. Eris
    JT Realmuto has an average pop time to 2B of 1.85 seconds. If Tinney’s 1.80 pop time is correct it would be elite.
  21. Eris
    Came across this article in the NY Post. Kerry Wood is pitching for the Savannah Bananas and has a trick pitch. Not sure this is the best place to post this, but I found the video fascinating. https://nypost.com/2026/07/26/sports/kerry-wood-throws-crazy-cool-trick-pitch-for-savannah-bananas/
  22. Eris
    This is really not new. The linked article is from August 2025. Article also indicates the the Twins wanted a major league outfielder—reports at the time was that this was Jarren Duran (who is having a horrible year). https://www.boston.com/sports/boston-red-sox/2025/08/02/red-sox-craig-breslow-twins-joe-ryan-offer/
  23. Eris
    “After last year's fire sale that shook up the roster,” Last year’s deadline moves involved trading relief pitchers and players on expiring contracts. Left untouched were the plethora of underperforming position players for which decisions will need to be made (e.g., Wallner, Lewis, possibly Lee and Martin). The Twins roster as currently constructed has only Jeffers and possibly Buxton who are above average both offensively and defensively. This is not the roster of a championship team.
  24. Eris
    Thank you for sharing this. What great second act of his life.
  25. Eris
    Lewis is not worth much in a trade and therefore he will have more value if he ever figures it out. According to FanGraphs he has 2 minor league options remaining so he doesn’t have to be moved unless there is a 40 man roster log jam.
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