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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    Walker JenkinsEmmanuel RodriguezBrooks LeeDavid FestaMarco RayaCharlee SotoLuke KeaschallGabriel GonzalezAustin MartinZebby MatthewsSimeon Woods RichardsonBrandon WinokurKala'i RosarioCory LewisCJ CulpepperRicardo OlivarDanny De AndradeAndrew MorrisTanner SchobelAndrew Cossetti
  2. 2wins87
    Culpepper kind of strikes me as a second round profile who probably goes in the first just due to the lack of other options at the position. The better defensive profiles in college like O'Ferrall and Silva needed to take steps forward offensively this year and didn't. The lack of high-end up-the-middle bats, and particularly SS, seems to really be the reason this draft is viewed as so weak. There are some interesting high school SS, but Rainer is probably the only one I'd really like at 21, and he's definitely gone by then, so I'd probably just look more to a big college bat or an arm at 21.
  3. 2wins87
    Good to see Yasser Mercedes having a strong start after battling injuries and (probably related) mediocre performance last year. He's not exactly old for the level but I think he should be pushed up to low-A soon to be on the track you'd like to see for a top prospect. I'm starting to get pretty excited about Dameury Pena too. He's recorded a hit in every single game he's played this season, drawn a fair amount of walks, and struck out just once in 44 PAs. It's never fair to compare someone to Luis Arraez, but it's hard not to think of him. Pena's got at least some of the same skills, and probably a bit more speed too. If he continues to rake, he will hopefully get a taste of low-A this year too, maybe after the FCL ends, which would be great for a guy in his first year state-side. Seems to be a pretty good group of international signings working through the lower levels right now.
  4. 2wins87
    Alcala is still a few days away from the 15-day minimum before he can be called up again. I hope they will call him up quickly once eligible and keep him on the roster in a suitable role.
  5. 2wins87
    Carlos is Fed up.
  6. 2wins87
    Fangraph's positional adjustments for DH vs COF are -17.5 vs -7.5 runs per 1450 innings. Baseball reference uses -15 vs -7 per 1350 innings. So for a full season the difference in positional adjustments between DH and COF is only 8-10 runs, not 20. Rooker has played 904 innings in LF/RF in his career. He has put up -16 DRS, -7.4 UZR, and -14 OAA. Let's call it -12 defensive runs. That's around -18 runs prorated to 1350 innings and about -19 prorated to 1450 innings. So add 8-10 for the difference in positional value between DH and COF and he's still been around 10 runs worse playing the outfield vs DHing. That's about -1 win.
  7. 2wins87
    In general, giving up on a 24-year-old high-K slugger in favor of keeping your 27-year-old struggling, defensively challenged, high-K slugger with dwindling options would be terrible process. Of course the Twins knew Rooker still had potential. The Padres and Royals did too. Give Oakland credit, I'm sure there was some good coaching and adjustments that contributed to his success, but this is not some sort of egregious evaluation mistake. This is a player finally putting it together a few years after their prospect status faded, after working with who knows how many coaches over that time. Happens quite a lot in baseball, for some guys, but not for everyone. Happened in a good way for the Twins with Castro. There is no team that knows how to figure out when it will happen a year or two down the line or when it won't happen at all. Also, I can believe Rooker could be a 3 WAR DH but cannot believe he would be more than a 2 WAR outfielder with the same batting line. He was not just a rough outfielder but legitimately among the worst outfielders I've watched on a regular basis in the majors.
  8. 2wins87
    Actually, since Jeffers homer led off the game, they were effectively shut out for an entire 3 game series after that. Yankees pitching is good no doubt, but still, yuck. Let's hope they can just beat Cleveland to wash the taste of this series away for now.
  9. 2wins87
    Right now, I've got Moore and Janek as the 2 guys I'd be happy to see drafted with their first pick at 21. Janek has just had a monster season at the plate. The level of competition is a slight question, but hard not to be excited about what he's done on both sides of the ball. I agree that it sounds like Moore's defense should be refinable to the point where he can play the position in the majors. I would imagine that they would have a plus grade on his intelligence (attending Stanford) like they did for Jeffers (physics major). The overall makeup grade will be pretty important for how they project him, but the potential seems to be there. Lomavita's aggressive approach scares me off a bit, though he could be a good comp A pick. The athleticism is great. With the defensive reputation, I would think that Cozart's production this year would put him right up there with the other top catchers, though he tends to be rated a bit lower. I guess scouts don't view his offensive tools quite as high. Still a good potential comp A pick it would seem.
  10. 2wins87
    Feel like if you're going to throw a fastball up to judge it has to be really up. A normal high fastball is like belt high to him. I think Paddack did the same thing on the 115 mph single last night.
  11. 2wins87
    He's been throwing 60% sliders this season and I think he threw 9 or 10 in 28 pitches tonight. Maybe he just caught them off guard, maybe a change in pitch mix will do him good
  12. 2wins87
    Almost
  13. 2wins87
    Weird choice by Boone letting Santana hit from his strong side for the 3rd time against a tiring Rodon before bringing in a righty when he must know all the lefties are coming off the bench now. Let's hope we can capitalize
  14. 2wins87
    The -1.6 def on Fangraphs includes the positional adjustment. Even a gold glove 1B will tend to have negative overall defensive value because every first baseman gets dinged pretty hard for positional value. I wouldn't put a ton of stock into BBref's range factor based -1 defensive runs either (which does not include the positional adjustment). Range factor is good for historical comparisons because it can be calculated simply from a play log, but it is very crude compared to modern metrics. He has a positive 0.9 UZR and 1 OAA on Fangraphs. My overall reading of several defensive metrics would be that he's been a least a bit above average for first basemen. My eye test would agree with that too. He's a solid defender, but at first base, we should want a little more on offense as well.
  15. 2wins87
    I'd much rather use WPA and RE24 to talk about producing runs than HR and RBI. Using RBIs amounts to cherry-picking the good out from the bad, and just citing his recent games does the same. He also did his share to contribute to losses in the first month, and we can't ignore that part. For the season he still has a -0.31 WPA and -3.16 RE24, which is a little worse than we should expect from his slightly below average offense overall. So despite his recent clutch hits he hasn't been clutch overall considering how many times he came up empty earlier in the season. This is a little bit of an aside, but Buxton, for comparison, has the same wRC+ of 98 but a WPA of of 0.6 and RE24 of 0.58 on the season. Buxton has actually been clutch for them this season, though I don't tend to hear him discussed that way.
  16. 2wins87
    I would say I was lukewarm on the Santana signing, and at this point in the season he's been pretty much at expectations overall. If he stays hot for another few weeks I'll be pleased with where he is at, but right now I'd still say it was an ok signing for the price, and I still wish they would have found a way to concentrate their money into someone like Hoskins, rather than spreading it around to Santana, Margot, and Farmer. I didn't think he would just be a platoon player, but I did think that he would sit a little more against righties than he has. He currently has a .617 OPS vs righties and .917 vs lefties, so I still think he should be viewed as closer to a platoon right handed bat like Farmer or Miranda than a full-time switch hitter as Rocco has mostly used him.
  17. 2wins87
    Kind of worked perfectly though. Duran held a one run lead, bats gave Jax a bigger cushion that they ended up needing, and they won. If Jax or someone gives up the lead in the 8th there's a chance Duran never even pitches in the game. The whole point is to make sure to use Duran in a big spot. The 8th was a big spot.
  18. 2wins87
    Well. All's well that ends well. GG Twins
  19. 2wins87
    Nicely done by Ryan. Not really at his sharpest tonight, but finished strong.
  20. 2wins87
    Against lefties: Margot - .214 Santana - .286 Farmer - .130 Vazquez - .333 And then Jeffers Correa and the lefties have basically carried the team otherwise
  21. 2wins87
    I wouldn't either but I've seen a few head scratching calls on similar plays. I think catchers and umpires have gotten better at it recently, but it just was not enforced consistently and sometimes poorly in the early going
  22. 2wins87
    Oof, Rocco doubling down and losing their challenge in the first inning. I never know how they're gonna call those sliding lane calls because the rule seems I'll defined, but deciding to challenge that call kind of feels like a gambler on tilt.
  23. 2wins87
    Varland's 2 starts prior to yesterday weren't successful enough? 12 IP, 1 ER, 1 BB, 13 K I think there is more time to let him find some consistency.
  24. 2wins87
    Don't know about the stuff yet, but I believe Miguel Cordero is the 3rd youngest player (by just a few days) to appear in the FCL this year, and by far the youngest pitcher (who are on average more than a year older than the hitters). First appearance perfect with 4 punch outs in 3 innings. Definitely going to be watching his progress. The org has not really developed much pitching from their international signings at all, and I'm hoping that can start to change.
  25. 2wins87
    Zebby looked great, totally unfazed by the step up in competition. One of his breaking balls, I think the curveball, was a great out pitch last night. Looked to have really good depth, staying in the zone a long time but just continuing to dive below the hitters bats. I also liked how the few times he did fall behind he had multiple pitches to get back into the at bat. There were two 2-0 counts in the last inning where he just grooved a back door slider into the outer third. I don't think I saw too many changeups, which was one of the main weaknesses for Matthews last year and probably still the pitch he most needs to work on. But just a fantastic, exciting start.
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