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2wins87

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Everything posted by 2wins87

  1. 2wins87
    I think probably they pencil in Lopez, Ryan, Paddack, and Ober next year. The last two maybe aren't guaranteed based on performance, but would seem good bets right now. For the last spot they would seem to have depth options, including Varland, Woods-Richardson, and Festa. But based on past years I think they would keep those guys as depth and try to find another veteran for the last spot. This could certainly be Gray, Mahle, or Maeda. I would think they will at least make a pass at each of them in that order. If not one of them, they might be more likely to go the trade route vs free agency. I don't think they can necessarily count on a big new influx of cash, but it's not like TV and streaming revenue are going to reverse their upward climb, so hopefully they find a little more payroll room each year too.
  2. 2wins87
    I originally assumed that the deal was including this year, but if it's true that it starts next year it seems like an even better deal. He probably would have been due a bit over $10M next year, so they guarantee 3 more years for an additional $60M or so from Lopez's perspective. Probably it's spread out evenly so it's about $18M per year for the team. It's early but it really looks like he's taken the next step forward to being a true #1 starter, which would be a fantastic deal if he stays healthy. I guess we finally found the monetary price that this front office is willing to pay for pitching, and of course it seems like somewhere between a solid bargain and a steal.
  3. 2wins87
    I've been checking out a lot of statcast data for low-A this year; Matthews is an interesting guy. The velocity is good, averaging 93.8 in his two starts. Statcast actually classifies 6 pitches for him: 4-seam, sinker, cutter, curveball, changeup, and slider. The sinker and slider aren't thrown very often, so for the slider in particular I don't know if it is just inconsistency with his cutter/curveball, but they did show up in both starts. The cutter and curve have both missed quite a few bats, and the change missed a couple too, which isn't always true for pitchers at that level.
  4. 2wins87
    Personally I don't think I need to see much more from Lee in AA to think he could be promoted. He's been very tough to strikeout there. I want to see him hit a few more out, and the walk rate is low right now but in a small sample, so he hasn't missed a beat playing at that level. I count playoff games, so he's had 14 in AA, and only had 28 in high-A last year before being promoted (though the promotion was probably largely just to get additional playing time by making him eligible for the AA playoffs). Given his path so far, I don't necessarily think they wouldn't be willing to promote him in June, though I have no insight into their actual plans and opinions on it.
  5. 2wins87
    Pretty sure this is the long relief move replacing Cole Sands. Ober is still the guy that would get a more long term position in the rotation. It seems evident now there are half a dozen guys in AAA that are going to be cycled through stints in the majors when needed. Not a terrible way to get some experience for all of them. Headrick was touching 95 in his first spring training start, but his velocity dipped throughout the spring. Presumably he came in pretty fresh, got a bit tired by the higher workload and has had to build back up. After averaging just 89.8 mph in his first rough AAA appearance, he averaged 91.6 in his second appearance (the start mentioned in the tweet), so he seems to be getting back to where he sat last year. Ideally he's a guy who can sit 92-93 and run it up to 95, which is solid from the left side. His curveball and slider both miss bats, including against righties when he locates a good back-foot one.
  6. 2wins87
    Nice to see Severino hitting homers again. My opinion of him changed a lot last year when he looked like a legit switch-hitting slugger. If he keeps it up we will need to pay a lot more attention to him.l, and hopefully he'll be in St. Paul before too long.
  7. 2wins87
    They might even be better that that. It's too early to tell, but I really think Lopez might have taken the next step to #1 territory. If he can go a full season going toe to toe with the likes of Cole, deGrom, and Ohtani this could really be a special rotation. I think Gray has been around long enough to know he's more a #2 but he's pitched like a #1 early too. It's taken a few years, but it seems like the front office has finally managed to build the rotation they've always been working on.
  8. 2wins87
    Two really fun wins in completely different games. Never want to let up against the Yankees when we get the upper hand, but very happy that we already know they'll get out of New York with at least a split. Seems like the Yankees were looking to ambush the fastball early. Varland and Jeffers made the adjustment to leading with the cutter for the rest of the game to stay off the barrels. Still got hit hard a few times after the 1st but a nice job adjusting to keep them in the game.
  9. 2wins87
    He is not solid behind the plate at this point in his career unfortunately. He has around a 10% caught-stealing percentage in his minors career. He might be better at framing/blocking but I haven't heard anything to suggest he really excels in those areas. Jair Camargo is probably the young guy who could provide catching depth this season with a good arm and solid receiving skills. He's struggled with contact and plate discipline, but can run into a few and send them a long way.
  10. 2wins87
    Olivar is a very intriguing guy. Has the athleticism to play both catcher and centerfield; you don't see that combo very often. We should probably note his 3 stolen bases yesterday in addition to his hitting line. Incredible game from as a catcher. I'm not sure if he'll continue playing center much going forward, but he raked in rookie ball last year, so if he gets going in Fort Myers now he should move up the boards.
  11. 2wins87
    I think for his future versatility he needed reps at 2B more than anywhere else since he's already kind of stretched there. I'm hoping he has a good showing with the bat in this stint, but likely gets pushed back to St Paul when Polanco, Kirrilloff, Kepler, and Gallo start coming back. At that point hopefully he gets some time at 1B and corner outfield with the Saints so he is ready to play more of a utility bat role when he gets up next, sort of like what they did with Lewis last year. It'd probably be a better defensive alignment to have Julien at 1B and Solano at 2B, but given Julien's experience so far we probably will only see the other way around for this stint.
  12. 2wins87
    I was pretty skeptical of Julien when he was walking 20%+ of the time in low A, but also striking out 25%+. Maintaining basically those same rates all the way up the minor league ladder was surprising and impressive. But what's really got me believing in Julien now is how much power he has, especially for a guy that doesn't necessarily look it. He routinely hits opposite field homers and hits some real bombs from time to time too. I'm excited to see what he does and hope he can make the transition quickly.
  13. 2wins87
    I could be wrong but I think the modern analysis in that situation (tied, bottom of the inning, in extras) is that bunting the runner over is better. Generally runner on second with no outs has a higher run expectancy than runner on third one out since the former is more likely to score multiple runs, but when you only need one run, the latter is more likely to score at least that one. If the probability of executing the sacrifice were always 100% you would probably see it most of the time. However, even with good bunters it's not 100%, and with guys that don't tend to bunt much there is a fairly high probability that they'll pop it up or otherwise fail to advance the runner. That's why you don't see the bunt a whole lot, but I know I have seen it several times. I wasn't really surprised, in fact, it almost feels like a no brainer to me with Taylor who can usually lay down a good bunt, is fast, and isn't a great hitter otherwise. We also saw the upside that when the bunt is executed it puts pressure on the defense. Most other guys at the plate we probably don't see the bunt though.
  14. 2wins87
    I'm pretty sure Duran has started off with a curve in several outings this year, or at least a good number of at bats. I think it usually works since hitters are geared up for the fastball and have no chance on the curve. His curve has been a super effective pitch in any count for him too. Robert took a chance that he would start with the curve again and ended up being right. I don't think it necessarily makes it a bad call. No one has criticized it in other at bats where he's done it because it has always worked out. Now, when you have a 102 mph fastball, it is probably less likely that they'll manage to square it up first pitch even when they are sitting on it. You might be right that it's not necessary or optimal for him to "pitch backward" as he often does. But it has typically worked for him when he's done it in the past. Probably a couple times in his career someone will ambush a first pitch fastball too. It's probably best for him to not fall into a predictable pattern, but sometimes the hitter will guess right.
  15. 2wins87
    Jeffers is definitely the guy losing out most from Buxton being DH only for the start of the season. I think he would have started at DH at least twice by now if Buxton were playing the field. Understandable, but tough for Jeffers who had a good spring and has looked good when he's managed to get into the lineup.
  16. 2wins87
    Varland and Festa both looked great. Festa in particular was just pumping strikes and the opposing batters basically had no answer. Obviously he throws hard but I think he has a bit of deception that gets on hitters a little extra fast too. Kyle Jones had a nice start in cedar rapids too. Ended up giving up a string of singles that did some damage in the 4th or 5th, but he pitched better than the final line.
  17. 2wins87
    Baseball reference is my suggestion too. The interface is much better than milb, and you can also get game logs and splits by month, handedness, etc. Fangraphs also has stats for all the minor leaguers, with a few league adjusted stats that are nice if you like those advanced stats.
  18. 2wins87
    I could definitely see something like this happening. Pretty easily actually. Dollander's ++slider has apparently been totally absent this spring. Probably a very real question whether he'd still be deserving of a top 5 slot if he doesn't find it. He's still got velocity and a clean delivery, so he could still be worth it they think they can work on his grip and re-develop his breaking pitch, but he's been slipping, and is probably clearly outside the top 3 at this point.
  19. 2wins87
    Has it been implied that he would turn down 7+ million and go to college? It's hard for me to see signability being an issue in the top 10 or so picks.
  20. 2wins87
    That is my understanding that it does basically work like you would expect it to. It might be hard to see in the numbers since it can also work in the other direction where a guy falls a couple slots because he's not willing to cut a deal a couple picks higher, but can get pretty close from another team a few picks down going over slot. FWIW, only Torkelson in 2020 got the full slot value at #1 overall since the pools were introduced in 2012, and more often than not in 11 drafts, the highest bonus has not gone to the guy picked highest (among those who did sign). Seems like maybe it is becoming less common lately vs just after the pools were first introduced, and it's never really been done again like the Astros did it in the first opportunity in 2012. Maybe the teams have moved on from trying to game their pools so much, or the agents have gotten better after a few rounds of negotiation and have learned they can hold out and will usually get decent deals for their players. They should generally have pretty good leverage since the players are unique, while most draftees are more or less happy going to any of the 30 clubs as long as they get the best deal
  21. 2wins87
    I'm pretty sure the soft cap is $150,000 now in the new CBA, not $125,000. BA had to correct their initial article.
  22. 2wins87
    I did watch a good chunk of his start. Didn't see any velocity but he seemed to have the curve working pretty well.
  23. 2wins87
    I was pretty worried about Maeda compared to the rest of the staff. The Marlins' offense is not great, but he looked pretty good. Hopefully there is another MPH to come on the fastball as he builds back, but he was controlling his secondaries pretty well for the most part. One turn through the rotation with a 1.03 ERA and 3.11 FIP. Less than 5 1/3 IP per start, but it seems like they were on pitch limits around 85 pitches for the first start, and I would guess that it would be around 95 or so for the second start. I think this is totally fine to let the starters build up a little bit. The bullpen has not been stressed at all yet. In the future when the starters are cruising like several were in their first starts I'd like to see at least 6 innings. But overall I'm feeling really good about the pitching so far.
  24. 2wins87
    I wouldn't say the offense did well against Alcantara, but there were a lot of well hit balls hit right at the outfielders. Their expected batting average was .217 vs their actual .103 for the game. So, yes they were shut down by an ace pitcher, but it was also kind of one of those days where the results didn't match the process.
  25. 2wins87
    Milb.tv has been rolled into the MLB app. https://www.mlb.com/news/milb-on-mlb-tv-faq-2023 I think the MLB At bat subscription is pretty comparable in price to milb.tv in past years
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