chpettit19

I really, really, really, really, really, really, really, really hope they aren't considering options with 12 games left to play and their playoff lives hanging in the balance. If you lose Blewett, Tonking, or Thielbar on waivers (they likely wouldn't) and a guy goes down with 6 games left, so be it. If they knowingly sacrificed talent because that talent has options and the lack of talent guys don't they really are as incompetent as some say. I hope this decision was made completely on who they think gives them the best chance to win as many games as possible for the next 2 weeks and nothing else.

I'd hope they aren't worried about options for Blewett, Tonkin, or Thielbar if they aren't one of their 14 best pitchers. They have 12 games left. Optioning vs DFAing shouldn't be a consideration anymore. It's time to get your 28 best players on the roster and stop this collapse. I assume this means they thought the current arms give them their best chance to win during the next 2 weeks. I wouldn't agree, but I have to think that's their thought process. Or they already have a plan for another arm to get hurt after throwing 3 or 4 innings in the next week and bringing Alcala back. Even if that's frowned upon by the rules and would be an incredibly bold move to make.

Who had Alcala as the guy having his season ended to bring in Mr Irvin? Being pretty widely reported he's the one being optioned. Didn't see that coming.

I'm not mincing words. You said you'd take 50% Buxton over a 4A player. I'm trying to figure out what 50% Buxton is. And now I'm going to ask if you think they're 85-95% right now. That matters in this conversation. If they're only 50% it's very different than them being 95%. If they're 95% and they are sitting at all that's embarrassing. If they're 85% and sitting at all the Twins really do baby their guys as much as some people say. It's the end of September. They're playing their 150th game of the season. Nobody is 100%. That's a huge part of this conversation. How healthy are they? If they're 85% they should've played yesterday, and they should play the next 12 games without a question. Of course 85% Buxton is better than a 4A player. The question is if he's 85%, 75%, 65%, 50% and where the line is that makes sense to play him. And you've already lost that bet. They sat yesterday when the need was there. After having played a whopping 4 innings the night before.

Starting Lee over Castro in a playoff game would be quite the decision. I'd be incredibly surprised if that's your roster and they started Lee with Castro on the bench. I'd bet they also carry 1 more position player. Especially in the wild card round. If they need 13 arms to get through a 3 game series they're not coming out on the winning end of that series. The question would be Julien or Keirsey for the last spot. Keirsey as the defensive replacement and stolen base threat or Julien who wouldn't have many opportunities to get on the field. This all assumes Kepler is healthy by then.

The fascinating thing will be who they send down tomorrow. Blewett? Henriquez? Zebby? Those are the 3 I see as the most likely. Tonkin and Varland being the next 2 in line. My guess would be Zebby's season is over. That'd mean Irvin is stepping directly into the rotation, though. So maybe Blewett or Henriquez and they look to use bulk pitching as much as they can for all the non-Lopez or Ober starts? Interesting decision incoming.

What percentage of Buxton did we get last year? Was that 50%? Cuz if that was 50% Buxton I'll take any 4A player over that.

I don't know that that should change the decision all that much. You're not adding an extra start for Pablo or Ober anywhere in there unless you're going CC with the Brewers on the bit and having them make starts on 3 days rest. I find it almost impossible to believe this regime would even consider that idea. Unless they go 0-7 and the Mariners or Tigers go 7-0 they're still in a fight for the playoffs and getting Pablo in position to start game 1 is the real motivator for moving him up a day. Technically, they'd still be in the fight in the situation I laid out, but their odds would be very low. I don't think this week's results should change much at all about the decision on moving Pablo up. As I see it, either you're getting Pablo lined up for game 1 or you're so tied to your strategies that you're completely and totally unwilling to adjust from them even for a playoff advantage.

I'm curious to see what they do with Pablo in the last 13 games. He starts tonight. He'll start again Saturday. They have an off day Monday. Do they move him up and have him pitch next Thursday? They haven't done that all year. They've used all their off days as an extra day rest for their rotation. But if they start him Thursday instead of Friday next week he'd then be on regular 4 days rest for game 1 of the wild card series on the following Tuesday. I'd like to see them do things that way. It's their best way of setting up their rotation for the postseason, and allows them to, hopefully, get an extra win on the board before going into the last 3 game set against Baltimore. Unfortunately, Ober won't get the same option as he would be scheduled to pitch Monday, but will instead be pushed back to Tuesday. So, unless they're going to go way out of character and have him start on 3 days rest, his last start of the year will come on Saturday the 28th and he would either have to pitch on short rest in game 2 or go game 3. Anyone have guesses on what the Twins will do or opinions on what they should do?

Anyone you send down at this point in the season is done for the year. A demoted pitcher has to be down for 15 days unless replacing an injured player. If they've been carrying someone they don't think is one of their 14 best arms for the last couple weeks they've been doing things terribly wrong. Not a lot of room for shuttle moves from here on out.

There's a lot of factors. Agreed that knowing vs not knowing is very different. Was Ryan getting treatment for a groin injury the team knew nothing about? Why would he be? I assume Larnach is getting treatment for whatever ails him. I'm just pushing back on the idea of "hero time" as if it's them just deciding they want to be seen as the conquering hero so they sat out until now. The season is almost over. There's nothing left to heal up for. That's a very different situation than going on the IL in June where you're planning to heal and be back. Playing through injury for 3 months is very different than playing hurt for 2 weeks. But people don't like to always acknowledge that and would prefer to say things like "Byron and Carlos can't be bothered to play" and suggest they're only coming back now because they can/will be seen as the hero. They're coming back now because there's no time left. They've healed as much as they can so it's either try to play now or pack it in. And I'd argue that if they can't play the day after playing 4 innings they should just pack it in.

Just wanted to see you say it since you like to act like the stars are doing something different than the rest of them. Glad to know you hold Trevor to the same standards.

Was that just as predicted? Is he a "Boras boy," too? You making any implications that he has questionable character? What happens to him if something happens that effects his health in the future? Would the team be better off with someone who can play the field and run the bases or should they keep Trevor in the lineup for him to attempt to play hero even though he doesn't care about playing midseason games when he's this hurt?

I questioned them being brought back if they can't play everyday. So I'm in agreement there. Why is Trevor playing through an injury now, but didn't in previous seasons when he was hurt during the middle of the season? Hero time for him, too?

Byron Buxton is not a Scott Boras client. If you're going to question a man's character at least do it based on proper information.

If there's so much concern that they may need to, or the team may want to, remove them early from a game they should simply put them back on the IL. Either they're healthy enough to play or they aren't. If they are, put them where they best fit in the lineup. That being said, one could make a very reasonable argument that they deserve to hit in the 5th and 6th holes because they haven't played in so long they likely aren't going to perform to their usual standards. That being said, Buxton homered in his return and Correa doubled in his. They certainly looked early like they're their usual selves on the field. I don't know the right answer to all this, but having to sit the day after playing 4 innings of baseball feels like the wrong answer. They have 13 games left in the regular season. They hold a 2.5 game lead over 2 teams, and a 4.5 game lead over a team they have a 3 game series against at the end of this week. If they need to sit after playing 4 entire innings I'm not sure they're really more valuable to this team than having a full roster of playable guys. Especially when you add Lewis and his inability to play every day as well. If your strategy is to maximize your roster by being able to play matchups and put guys (see Margot, Manuel and Farmer, Kyle) into ideal situations where they don't have to face competition you know they can't beat then having 3 position player roster spots dedicated to guys who are so limited in their playing time is probably a bad call. It's go time. Full go. Pull them from blowouts, for sure. But then you can't sit them the next day. If they're that hurt still put them back on the IL. There's nothing left to save them for. You have 13 games. It's time to put them in there and see where the cards fall. If you can't just play them then put them back on the IL and try to matchup your way to the playoffs.

One of the more bizarre stories I can remember ever hearing about a baseball player's on field conduct. Wanted to end his team's season because he was worn out physically or mentally? Had a personal problem with that specific pitcher so wanted to tank their performance? Had money on the game and wanted to help his odds? If he wants to continue his career we'll likely get some sort of comment from him, but it'll be hard to know how much of it is believable. Just a wild story. If he's a person in crisis I very much hope he gets the help he needs and looks to find a path back to the life he was attempting build. If he was just a jerk who hurt his teammates out of his own selfishness I hope he has some good people in his life to help him improve as a person and he has a good backup plan for his life from here on out cuz baseball likely is not the answer anymore.

I think a lot of that will depend on what the rest of the roster looks like. You can't platoon them all. Wallner has a .697 OPS against lefties this year. League average OPS is .712. He's OPSed very well against them in the high minors (.848 last year, .911 in 2022) in over 300 ABs. They can't platoon them all and Wallner should be the one they give the chance to see what he can do. Would you rather have Wallner face lefties or have the Farmers and Margots of the world face righties? I don't think it should even be a question. Wallner has a better OPS against lefties than Martin, Farmer, or Margot have against righties. His OPS against lefties is better than Kepler (.682), Martin (.669), Farmer (.668), Julien (.660), Kirilloff (.653), Margot (.652), Vazquez (.607), and Lee (.586) have done overall this year. And that's with sporadic ABs against them here and there. If they're not going to let Wallner get a shot against lefties with those numbers we should be pretty worried whether or not they'll let Emma or Jenkins do it when they get here. And if they're going to turn all their young lefties into platoon bats they're going to severely handicap their team.

Strong disagree that him spiking his chase rate is a good sign. His chase rate was never the problem. And it spiking will never be a good thing. His problem is his in zone swing and contact rates. He's too picky on which strikes he swings at, and misses too many of the ones he does. Him chasing more does not help the situation. He was passive before, but it's all about him swinging at, and hitting, strikes. If he were better at making contact then increasing his chase rate wouldn't be terrible. But he isn't. He already struggles to make enough contact so adding swings on balls he really can't hit, and would be balls, is not a recipe for success. He needs to be more aggressive on balls in the zone, but, really, he needs to be better at hitting the ball. This season he's seen 50.4% of pitches in the zone. League average is 48.7. He's swing at 62.2% of those pitches. League average is 67. He's made contact on 78.2% of those pitches. League average is 82. His chase contact rate is 36.5%. League average is 57.8. So he sees more pitches in the zone, swings at fewer of them, and makes contact with fewer of them. Pitches out of the zone he misses significantly more than the average player. Chasing more will not help him. His swing path is incredibly steep and it makes hitting certain pitches much harder. That's his problem. Maybe the extra chase is part of the process, but it better be short lived. He won't have a career if he's chasing 33% of the time.

Matt has made my "he'll come back a little and be a 120-130 OPS+ type bat" stance look awfully silly since his recall. And 120-130 OPS+ is a top-50ish bat in MLB! He's certainly looking like a top-10-15 bat in MLB if he doesn't have anymore crazy stretches where he's completely lost like the first couple months this season. He seems like a very hard worker who puts a lot of thought and effort into perfecting his craft. I expect him to have learned from last offseason into this season and come out mashing from the jump in 2025. If you can plant a bat like that in the 2 to 4 hole everyday (yes, everyday, including against lefties) you've got an awfully nice starting point for a nice offense. He'll never be Max in right, but his arm helps make up for some of his lack of natural fielding instincts, and the more he plays RF at Target field the more comfortable he'll get and be able to improve his overall defense. The unfortunate thing for Matt is he's going to be 27 next year and he's not even knocking on the arbitration door yet. He'll have 1 shot at a big pay day in his early 30s. If he keeps doing what he's doing he can still get some really impressive financial numbers going for himself, but his window is a little tighter than the average MLB superstar.

If I remember correctly, the graphic on the last game said his sprint to first was the 2nd fastest speed on the team this year behind only Buxton. Now that doesn't mean we'll see a bunch of steals from him, but he's awfully fast.

His xBA is .265. That's not bad at all (league average is .245). xSLG .447 (league average .406). xwOBA .342 (league average .315). Those are very respectable numbers. Hard hit rate right in line with league average (33.3% for him compared to league average 36.5%). Line drive rate of 33%. As you said, incredibly small sample size, but the statement "Keirsey's contact has resulted in batted balls with pretty low chances of being a hit" is false. He's also seen 53.8% fastballs. Lewis has seen 51.8%. Wallner 55.6%. Miranda 52.2%. Correa 55.7%. So he hasn't, by any means, been challenged with more fastballs than the average Twins hitter. He has seen 8% of pitches middle-middle. Lewis gets 6%. Correa 7%. Miranda 7%. Wallner is down at 5%, but otherwise he's not far off of any of those guys for middle-middle pitches or fastball percentage seen. All of his expected numbers are above average. He's been more than respectable in his ABs to this point. I assume he's still here for defense and pinch running, but his expected data is quite nice. It's a basically useless sample size, but at least give him the credit he deserves. He's not looking like a superstar or anything, but he's certainly held his own in an incredibly small sample.

Helman is already back in St Paul. Was demoted yesterday for Margot.

Yeah, I'd like to know what their data is saying about things. Maybe those lefties happen to all really struggle against splitters? That'd be my best hope for that kind of decision. His fastball usage has gone from 49.6% in 2022, to 45.1% in 2023, to 41% this year. Curve has gone from 31.4% to 27.7% to 27.4%. Split has gone from 16% to 27.1% to 31.6%. He's getting very few swings and misses on his split (18.9%). But his other 2 pitches are pretty close to his previous seasons. His exit velo against all 3 pitches are at all time lows outside of his curve having been lower in 2022. Really weird season for him. His batted ball data is still elite. Highest weak contact rate of his career. Lowest barrel %. Lowest chase rate of his career, though. And they're hitting it more when they chase. Tipping pitches maybe? Lowest swing%, chase%, and whiff% feel like guys are awfully comfortable in the box against a guy with his stuff. His chase rate is in the 30th percentile after having been in the 98th in 2022 and 67th last year. He's not fooling anyone.

This is slightly incorrect. He gave up a single to a lefty (Kavadas). Then a single to a righty (Adams). Then got back to back righties to strikeout (Ward and Neto). Then a single to a lefty (Schanuel). Then a groundout for a righty (Stefanic). And every ball in play was hit hard from both righties and lefties. Hits came off a splitter to a lefty, fastball to a righty, and splitter to a lefty. Groundout was on a curveball to a righty. Threw 5 total fastballs in 22 pitches. All 5 pitches to the lefties were splitters. Every ball in play off him was hit 94.9 MPH or harder.