chpettit19

I don't disagree with that plan. I think we've actually discussed it before. It's why I wouldn't be in any rush to trade Ryan now. That's what I'd do with the rest of 2025, too. And 2026 and 2027 are the target window I'm looking at, too. Or I'd be pushing for a full rebuild and I'd be all over these boards saying they should blow the whole thing up and trade everybody. Part of my 2026 and 2027 plan includes trading one of the arms, though. I'm all for seeing what they have in the system. Gaining data and giving experience. But I think it'd be naive and too much wishful thinking to go into 2026 with only guys currently in the org and more low cost, 1-year vets on the position player side. Seattle has been showing us for years what happens when you have all pitching and no offense. It doesn't work. If Ober comes back and looks like his old self then trade him if you think Lopez and Ryan have to stay. He'd bring a worthy return. If not, it has to be one of Ryan or Lopez. Because you need to bring in more talent on the offensive side to open this window more. Festa, Zebby, and SWR need to be able to step up. The system needs to produce. Or it's all doomed. So, since they need offense from outside the org to help, and they can't afford to add free agent offense. And they need their internal pitching prospects to step up anyways. The only path to truly opening that window for 2026 and 2027 is by trading one of Lopez, Ryan, or Ober. And Ober's name comes off that list if he doesn't come back and dominate. Otherwise, I see no reason to go into 2026 expecting anything other than what we've seen for 2024 and 2025. And if 2026 goes the same way, it's full rebuild time because you can't go into 2027 with all those guys on 1-year deals and this entire wave of prospects already in the bigs. There's no more waiting, in my view. At least 1 tough decision needs to be made before 2026 to better balance this roster.

I'd get the best return I can on the offensive side of things. I think Basallo is an offensive weapon who happens to also be a catcher. He'd be my number 1 target. Rushing I threw in there because I know people around here love to target catching in every trade. Basallo would catch, DH, and play 1B for me if I acquired him. Don't think there's any chance Baltimore trades him, but I'd ask nicely anyways. But, otherwise, yes, we agree. I don't care about position. Get a shortstop if they're the best player. The Twins need offense. And defense. And base running. They need position player talent. The catcher names was just to throw the hounds a bone. I do think Basallo is an answer to multiple Twins questions, though. I think he's an absolute star that I'd start 162 games, including a bunch at catcher.

Making up for that Chris Archer debacle.

No, it wouldn't have. There was a reason the Twins never called him up. Yunior Severino was never that kind of prospect. He was never bringing back a "Joe Ryan like proven major league starter." Major League teams aren't just looking at Fangraphs, sorting by HR leaders and saying "I'll take this guy, he must be good." I mean, sure they could've included him in a package with Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis in 2023 and brought back a proven MLB starter, but Yunior himself wasn't the kind of prospect to front that package. He was never a top 20 system prospect let alone a top 100 prospect. You're comparing him to way different types of prospects. Chase Petty had just been drafted out of high school when he was traded. I don't know what he's going to be, and that trade worked out exactly as the Twins wanted it to, couldn't have asked for more, but it's right on track for the Reds, too. Saying he "finally made his debut" is super misleading. A high school kid making it to the bigs in 4 years isn't bad at all. Not super elite, but not some sort of failing. He's 22 years old. I'm pretty sure the Reds are quite happy with how that trade is trending on their side as well. I don't think they've given up on the 22-year-old after 6 innings in the majors.

I can understand this argument, but the same argument can be made about Jax and Duran closing out games. And Ober providing them with a 3rd playoff starter. Now we've taken out all their truly valuable trade chips and I just don't see a way to truly impact change on the position player side. And, in my opinion, without real change on the position player side you're not competing in 2026 or 2027 anyways and then all you've done is hold onto these guys and get 5 comp picks in return and this org has doomed itself. I'm positive Cleveland fans didn't want to see Francisco Lindor traded. Or Corey Kluber. Tampa fans thought there was no way they could compete without Blake Snell. And then Tyler Glasnow. Milwaukee fans were convinced they were doomed without Corbin Burnes, especially with Brandon Woodruff injured. I get the fear, I really do. I just think you're essentially saying "they've failed to develop any real position player talent so far, but they're going to make it happen in the next 2 years." Unless you see another way to get that side of the team to improve. Which I'm open to, but haven't seen anyone even attempt to suggest how to do it. I reject the idea that trading a singular starting pitcher means it has to be a full rebuild. And if it does actually mean that then I'd argue this team needs a full rebuild because it's 1 injury away from each of the next 2 seasons being completely and utterly destroyed. Whether or not this front office can pull off the right trade is one question, but if you can build a package around a Dalton Rushing or Samuel Basallo type MLB ready catcher plus other pieces I don't see why trading one of these starting pitchers has to destroy this team. They have to get the trade right, and it's never fun trading your studs. But letting all these arms leave for comp picks in 2 years is a far worse outcome than trading one or 2 for way more than comp picks. But the Twins have to be able to develop talent or none of anything works. Festa, Zebby, and SWR have to be able to back fill to some extent. Is Festa figuring it out? If he is, trading Ryan, Lopez, or Ober now or in the offseason is the right move to compete in 2026 and 2027, in my opinion.

FYI Crochet was controlled through 2026 when he was dealt. And he's 26, Joe is 29. Hunter Brown is more valuable than Ryan. I don't think Seattle trades Bryan Woo to MN for Ryan straight up. Or George Kirby. Detroit hangs up on Falvey if he offers Ryan for Jobe straight up. Or Olson. Joe Ryan is not the 2nd most valuable trade asset in the American League. The Tigers have 3 pitchers alone who are more valuable than him. Joe Ryan has never made it through a full season maintaining this kind of performance. I'm not saying the Twins should trade him, but he's not Crochet who was an ace for a full season and is 3 years younger with only "half" a season less control. We need to be more realistic about who Joe Ryan is. As somebody else mentioned earlier in the thread, we need to very much consider that this is an outlier season for Joe. He's never done this for a full season. He's a full 1.4 bWAR ahead of any full season he's ever had already. Again, not saying they should be looking to trade Joe Ryan right now. And he's very valuable. But he's absolutely not the 2nd most valuable trade piece in the American league. Those were just the pitchers I could think of off the top of my head. Ryan is good and valuable, but let's be a little more realistic about who he is. And if this half season has truly vaulted him to the Tarik Skubal stratosphere of trade value, then I change my stance and the Twins should be shopping him hard because he's not that valuable of a player and they'd be selling him for more than he's actually worth and they'd actually have a chance to rebuild this thing while they still have Lopez, Ober, Jax, and Duran under control.

Rodriguez is a good CFer. He's a better CFer than he is a hitter at this point. If Bader keeps hitting better than he has in years he's going somewhere else. Just no way the Twins can afford to pay him 8 figures next year.

To trade him now I'd need a massive return. But I'd be listening. They should always be listening. On everyone. If Baltimore thinks Joe Ryan is the key to them getting back to contention the next handful of years and they want to get him in there now so they waive Samuel Basallo plus in my face you better believe I'm listening. But I wouldn't be actively calling and trying to sell Joe Ryan at the deadline. I might during the offseason, though. At this deadline I'm selling guys who won't be here moving forward. That's guys on expiring deals and guys I can't afford/won't pay. As @Riverbrian points out, the Twins don't have the budget to keep everyone. And I don't think they should want to. This team is what most of us thought they were, mediocre. Somewhere around .500 teams shouldn't be having you fighting to break the budget to keep them together. I think they have the pitching to compete. I don't think they have the hitting, fielding, or base running. So, I'd sell off anyone who I don't think will be here moving forward (Castro, Bader, France, Larnach (I don't think they'll pay his arb raises), Vazquez, Clemens) and give all the ABs to people who might be. The rest of 2025 would be about figuring out what kind of pieces I have that can contribute in 2026 and beyond and getting them experience. Can Julien and Miranda figure it out or do I need to cut them? Does Emma look completely overwhelmed or is there something there (next year is his last option year, we need to start gathering data on him at the big league level- although I'm open to trading him if he has big value)? Can McCusker show any sort of adjustment making in the majors over 2 months? Can Martin be a 4th OFer/2B? I 100% understand why people don't want to trade away good pitching. And it's why I wouldn't do it now. But what path do people see to improving the position player side? This isn't a blip on the radar anymore. This position player group hasn't been good enough for years. They don't have the financial resources to improve it. They haven't been good at developing all around players. I'm a prospect lover, but they have a 2 year window. Letting Ryan, Ober, Lopez, Duran, and Jax walk for comp picks after 4 years of roughly .500 teams fighting for the final wild card spot would be a disaster. So, I wouldn't trade any controllable pitching now. But I'd be open to it this offseason and moving forward. If Festa, SWR, and/or Zebby look like any sort of reliable rotation option one of Ryan, Lopez, or Ober likely needs to get dealt next offseason. If Ober doesn't come back and dominate it's Ryan or Lopez.

Honestly, I wouldn't even limit it to just expiring deals. If I were in charge, it'd be guys I don't see as part of the future. I think Larnach is on the border of being non-tendered. Not because he isn't worth the 4ish mil he'll get in general, but because he won't be worth it to the Twins with the tight budget they'll be on. Same with Topa. Unfortunately, the Twins are in a really bad spot when it comes to options for upgrading the position player side of the team. I think they have the pitching to compete. June obviously saw things fall apart for a while, but I think there's enough talent there to realistically look at that side of the roster and say it's worth trying to compete for the next 2 years. But the position player side needs work and there aren't many avenues to improvement. It almost all comes down to internal development. And because of that I think the rest of this season has to be focused on figuring out who can play a role the next couple years and giving them experience. Could this team catch fire for 2 weeks again and have that be enough to sneak into the last wild card spot? Maybe. But I don't think they have any realistic shot at doing damage in the playoffs. And I'm typically a chip and a chair kind of a guy. I just think the last 11 months say this team isn't good enough and if we're being honest the position player side needs a real shake up. France, Bader, Castro, and Clemens have no future here. Give their ABs to people who might. If you're going to non-tender Larnach trade him now, get something for him, and get somebody who may have a future ABs. Maybe everyone you have here now looks completely overwhelmed. At least you know now and that changes how you do things in the offseason. I'm generally an optimist, but we have enough info now, in my opinion. This position player group is too flawed. Let's try new guys and be better prepared to make decisions during the offseason. I don't think that's what they'll do, but it's what I'd do.

They're likely not bringing back anyone who can help next year for those expiring deals. That wouldn't be the goal, though. Get whatever prospects you can and clear out guys who aren't part of the future. Running back this same team for the 3rd straight year doesn't make sense. They need to be realistic about this position player group. It's incredibly flawed and not good enough. And they can't afford it anyways. They can't keep the payroll under 155 without dropping guys from the current 18 under contract plus the 3 you want to bring back. And they aren't going to run that big of a payroll. So, who are you trading away in order to keep Castro and Bader? Lopez? 2 of Duran, Jax, Ryan, and Ober? Unless you think it's realistic that the payroll is going up while their attendance continues to nosedive, it's not realistic that they're bringing those guys back. So, now they're carrying them for the rest of the year in the hopes of finishing around .500 and sneaking into the playoffs with no real chance to advance or do any real damage. That is the short sighted plan. Clearing out the guys with no future on the team to give ABs and innings to guys who actually have a chance to be around moving forward is the long term plan. Castro and Bader are gone unless you're trading some arms. And if you're trading some arms you better really believe in the pitching development.

I think that very much depends on the hitter. Kyle Schwarber has a 203 wRC+ left on left in 144 PAs this year. You taking him out of the leadoff spot to go all righties in the lineup? Shohei is at 150 wRC+ in 135 PAs. James wood 146 in 133 PAs. Kyle Tucker 144 in 129. Juan Soto 144 in 119. CJ Abrams 136 in 102. Rafael Devers 136 in 147. Matt Olson 127 in 101. Corbin Carroll 113 in 101. Bryce Harper 110 in 106. Brandon Nimmo 108 in 105. Sal Frelick 106 in 113. JP Crawford 105 in 107. Going all righty, as the Twins love to do, also allows the pitcher to get more comfortable. It is different throwing to a lefty than a righty. You use different pitches and focus on different parts of the zone more. If you have to adjust back and forth between your pitches more and bounce between different parts of the zone with all your pitches more, it's harder to get into a groove. I've never pushed strongly for Larnach to get lots of ABs against lefties because he was never all that successful against them in the minors. Wallner was, though. He was super successful against them in the minors. So, I've been one of the vocal contingent around here about defying the years of data. Because it shouldn't be about macro analytics, it should be about micro. It should be about that specific hitter. Gunnar Henderson is my go to example. The Orioles wanted him to be a star. When he came up he played everyday. No matter who was on the mound. He was awful against lefties his first year. A little less awful his 2nd. And an absolute star against them his 3rd. I just listed 13 guys with over 100 PAs left on left this year with above average production. They shouldn't be sat against lefties simply because of a hundred years of data. Because it should be about the specific player. The question is whether or not the Twins have had any lefties worth giving a shot to. My argument has always been that Wallner's minor league production and early major league success meant he should play everyday to me. Even if/when he struggled against lefties early. If you think he can be a star let him try to develop into a star. Should the Twins platoon Jenkins from the jump because of the data? Or let him try to be a star?

Where you getting the money for extending those guys? Castro isn't accepting that deal, by the way. Tommy Edman just got 5/74. You're going to need 12-15 a year for 5 years to sign Castro. Lewis: 3 CC: 32.8 Lee: 800k Keaschall: 800k Jeffers: 9 Bader: 12 Castro: 14 Buxton: 15.1 Wallner: 800k Larnach: 4 Lopez: 21.75 Ryan: 6.5 Ober: 7 Festa: 800k Coulombe: 3.75 Sands: 1.1 Topa: 2 Varland: 800k Jax: 5 Duran: 8 SWR: 800k That's roughly 150 mil in payroll for 21 roster spots. Even if you fill the rest of the roster with league minimum guys you're at essentially 155 mil in payroll for 2026. I don't think that's a likely scenario. Not all 21 of these guys are coming back next year. Bader, Castro, and Coulombe are pretty obvious trade options. To me, not trading those guys and hoping to be .500 at the deadline, and likely still have 3 or 4 teams to jump to win the last wild card spot, just to get smacked in the playoffs with a clearly flawed team is short sighted. How do you improve upon this team in the offseason? Even if I give you a $160 million payroll for next year, how are you improving this team with the final 5 roster spots and only 10 million to spend?

I agree with @Linus, SWR doesn't have the ceiling of Zebby or Festa, but he's made the adjustments at the major league level and has the better floor right now. Festa looks like he's figuring things out a little recently, but still hasn't quite gotten things to click with his consistency, and Zebby has been hurt so we'll have to see where he's at when he gets back. If they can make adjustments and lock in consistency they have much higher ceilings because their stuff is better. SWR looks like he can be a solid 4th/5th arm in a rotation. I wouldn't want him starting a bunch of playoff games for me, but internally developed 4th/5th rotation arms are valuable, too. Especially if he can continue to take the ball every 5th day more often than not. He absolutely looks like a developmental success story at this point, just without a super high ceiling. I wouldn't be looking to move him at this point unless somebody is blowing me away with an offer. Outside of Paddack and Coulombe, I wouldn't move any pitching until the offseason when the whole team could get a massive reshaping depending on how the rest of this season goes and what kind of shape my offense is in and how realistic I think it is I can rebuild that side of things in the next 2 years.

This is a false narrative. You apologize to Joe Ryan in there already, but he disproves your point from the start. He's gone more than 5 innings in 11 starts already this year, and each of his last 5. Festa has gone more than 5 in his last 2 and 3 of his last 5. The Twins haven't limited Ober in years and weren't limiting him when he was actively injured so why would we assume they're going to limit him when he comes back? SWR going deeper depends on the offense giving him cushion. So, we can probably assume he won't be going deeper because they don't tend to do that. And I agree Zebby will likely be limited. But that's 3 out of 5 who I see plenty of reason to believe they'll be allowed to go longer than 5. Since that's what they've been doing.

Roman Anthony is 21 with a 109 OPS+ early in his MLB career- 25.5% K rate in AA as a 20-year-old, 19% K and BB% in AAA at 20 years old, 19% BB rate, 21% K rate in AAA as 21-year-old Jackson Chourio had a 119 OPS+ as a 20-year-old in the majors- 18.4% K rate in AA Marcelo Mayer struggling a little out of the gates in the majors but had a 25.8% K rate in AA at 20 and 19.7% at 21. Lots of people wanting Dalton Rushing around here- 20.7% K rate at AA at 23 years old. Augustin Ramirez- 19.4% K rate at AA at 21 years old. Jenkins is a little extra patient, but not passive. He's not Emmanuel Rodriguez. Emma had a 31.7% swing rate at AA. Jenkins is at 44% this year, 49% last year. But he doesn't swing at crap. He has a 14% called strike percentage so it's not like he's taking a ton of strikes. For comparison here's the called strike percentages for AA from the guys above: Ramirez: 13% Rushing: 13% Mayer: 12% Chourio: 15% Anthony: 20% Here's their swing percentages: Ramirez: 49% Rushing: 46% Mayer: 50% Chourio: 49% Anthony: 39% Roman Anthony was much more patient or passive than Jenkins and struck out even more in AA as a 20-year-old. Had 19% K and BB rates in AAA as both a 20- and 21-year-old and is still mashing in the majors at the age of 21. He was slugging much better, that part is true. Although, getting some batted ball data on Jenkins could also help tell a better story there. And it's such a small sample size that 1 extra home run jumps his slugging to an acceptable spot. If he keeps doing what he's doing and adds 1 HR in every 67 ABs to the numbers he's currently putting up he's doing what the rest of the top prospects in baseball are doing at AA. There's so much more to determining if a guy is ready than just looking at their K and BB rates. Especially in such a small sample size. He doesn't need to hit .330 with a .500 slug and 14% K rate for a month to say he's conquered AA. He can keep doing what he's doing with 1 extra home run or a couple extra doubles and be just fine.

Good for Buck. Back in his home state and gets to put on a show for his family and friends. Like he said, once in a lifetime opportunity. Glad to hear he's taking advantage of it. Hope he puts on a memorable performance.

Bader's option is mutual. If he continues to have his best offensive season in years he's going to decline his side and hit free agency again. Clemens is 29 and has a .629 OPS with a .152 BA since the start of June. He's back to being Kody Clemens. He has no future here. If you're going to call up Sabato and give him playing time, then give him all the playing time and see what he can do. Don't waste ABs on Kody Clemens.

While I agree he looks off-balance, he's still hitting absolute bombs. The HR he hit in Miami was 430 ft. That didn't "barely reach the fence." The one he hit off Pop to the bullpens at Target Field was 420 feet the other way. Those are his last 2 HRs. Those are absolute bombs.

I don't think the idea of trading Ryan (or Lopez or Ober- not right now on him, obviously) is crazy at all. I wouldn't do it right now, though. I think you get to this offseason and start making some tough decisions then. Ideally new ownership and FO is in place by then, but even if it isn't (feeling more likely by the day that it isn't), a hard look at the org needs to be taken and decisions need to start to be made on where the future of this team is headed. The Twins have Ryan, Ober, Lopez, Duran, and Jax for 2 more years. There's not many teams out there with a better front 3 to a rotation and back 2 to a bullpen combination than that. But the position player side of this team is incredibly flawed. And that 5 man pitching group is only around for 2 more years. That sounds like a long time, but it really isn't unless the front office starts making some real changes. My concern is on their options for making real change. As is well known, they're not exactly selling out Target Field every game. And I don't see that changing for the rest of the season. So, I'd guess big free agent signings won't be the way they fix the offense. Trading away a bunch of prospects to get MLB talent is essentially betting the house on the next 2 years. I hope they don't do that, because they'd need to hit on every trade and they'd need to make 3 or 4 of them and have them all stay healthy for 2 seasons. They could turn it over to the "youth" and enough of the prospects hit big and hit big early. Or they can keep running it back with close to the same roster while filling in with one-year, low-cost vets that provide average at best bats and continue to fail offensively and waste the 5 names above. Coming out of this stretch with a bad MLB team that hasn't won anything since 2023 and a handful of comp picks would be a disaster. If you can turn Ryan into 2 top 100 prospects plus more this offseason you absolutely should consider it. Shoot, if you can turn one of those arms into Samuel Basallo and a lottery ticket at the deadline you should be thinking about it awfully hard right now. I get not wanting to lessen the rotation by trading one of Ryan, Lopez, or Ober, or hurting the pen by trading Jax or Duran, but what's the point of having those 5 when you score 2 or fewer runs in 1/3 of your games and miss the playoffs 80% of the time? How are you going to improve this team before those 5 guys leave with no money to spend and most of your prospects already on the big league team? 2 years isn't as long as it sounds.

My point is more that it's the talent that's the problem. How many hitting coaches you want them to go through with the same players? The players are the problem and the guy who brought the players in is the guy who has to go. Him firing and hiring hitting coaches doesn't solve the problem. The average life span of an MLB hitting coach is less than 3 years. They get fired because they're the easy scapegoat for their bosses who failed to provide them with talent. Matt Wallner is a streaky hitter. Always has been, always will be. Ty France isn't a great hitter. This is who he's been for years. Bader is a bad hitter. His 99 OPS+ is wildly above what he's been the last several years. Clemens is a bad hitter. He's never put up an above average batting line like he has right now, him coming back to earth was always going to happen. Bride never should've been here in the first place. Lee is having as much success as anyone could ask for. Correa is struggling so that's a mark against the hitting coach. Buxton is having his 2nd best offensive season ever. Vazquez is doing exactly what Vazquez does. Jeffers is being Jeffers. Lewis has been broken for a year and isn't around long enough to establish any kind of rhythm anyways. Castro has his best OPS outside of the nonsense 2020 season. Keirsey isn't a major leaguer. This is who these guys are. The hire that isn't working is Falvey and the position player side of his roster. You can hire whatever hitting coach you want and they aren't turning anyone outside of Correa into a better hitter than they're showing. Every hitter currently not named Correa (or Wallner recently) is either meeting or exceeding recent career performance. This is who these guys are. They're simply not very good.

He just got hired. Pretty hard for his bosses to have just fired the previous guy because they blamed the failure of the offense on that guy and then turn around and blame the failure of the same hitters on this guy. At some point the Pohlads will say "wait a minute, maybe it isn't the hitting coaches. Maybe you've built a bad offense."

Very strong winds?

Coors Field. Obviously. (This isn't sarcasm or a joke. That is literally the park they say it wouldn't be a homer in.)

I think he's super boom or bust and not much in the middle. But, mostly, I don't think he can stay healthy and if I could get top 50 global prospect value for him I'd get it. I honestly have no idea what kind of value he has across the league, though. I don't expect him to be traded, but if another team sees him as super valuable and would give up a big time piece for him I'd move him without thinking twice.

No, it's counted in there. There's 3 other dead money spots for him (21.5), Dobnak (3), and Tonkin (1) that don't show on here for some reason.