chpettit19

Now I'm blushing ☺️

I mean the real point was that the pitching pipeline shouldn't be trusted to produce since it's failed to do so so far. But I could argue Duran, Jax, Winder, and Ober are all pipeline success stories. If you guys want to draw an arbitrary line of when the guy debuted to discount a success story in the conversation about "the pipeline" being able to produce in the future that's cool with me.

And he's started 0 this year because he was thrown to the wolves last year after the season was already lost because they just needed someone to eat innings and they didn't want to do that to their big name prospects. But it's whatever. If you don't want to credit Jax in the pen as a "pipeline" success story because he was up last year that's fine with me.

Technically so was Moran. Neither was a vital part of anything, though.

To be fair Jax has been solid and Winder, while currently not on the big league roster for some bizarre reason, has been more than usable as a starter. But I agree with the general premise here.

I don't think the Twins have the prospect capital to make many big deals so I think the likely outcome is a couple rental relief arms. I just think it's a seller's market and the other buyers will be more motivated while also having the ability to outbid the Twins in most deals. Miranda and Kirilloff are a big part of the current offense, let alone the future, so trading them doesn't help the current team in the aggregate. I don't see any deal that would make sense to move them in. I'd be willing to move Larnach, but it's hard to tell what his value is right now. But if he's enough to front a deal with Cincy I'd do it. I'd trade Steer and Wallner in a heartbeat if they were going to bring back a Castillo type starter. They have a shot at being big league regulars, but I think they're more likely to be a utility and backup corner OF. The problem with them not being the kind of prospects that should be untouchable is that means they're also likely not the type of prospects that bring back frontline starters. But if they are I'd trade them yesterday for a starter. Lewis would be untouchable to me as I expect Correa to leave after the season and Lewis is the SS for the foreseeable future (I think Lee moves to 3B, and Miller is still too far away). This isn't a huge deal as the other contenders also seem to be unwilling to trade their very top prospects (Yankees have notably refused to trade either of their young SS prospects to the As for any of their stars for the last year). Martin has taken a fall this year and he's likely not enough to front a package for a Castillo type. But if he is I'd move him (makes me sad to type that as he was my favorite prospect coming out in that draft and I was super excited to get him in the Berrios trade). The arms have mostly been injured again or are stalling. That's really been the problem with this season. I think the Twins planned to compete this year by having the arms on the 40-man (plus a couple not yet on it) produce far more than they have. I think they thought those guys would be taking jobs, or at least really nice injury fill-ins, by now. Duran and Jax have done nice out of the pen, but Winder is the only starter who's filled the role I think they expected Balazovic and Canterino at a minimum to also be ready to fill by now. So the Twins biggest trade chips at this point are the super young guys in the low minors who are the only ones they could sell a team on their superstar potential. I don't want to make a Tatis Jr for James Shields trade (not that we have a Tatis Jr in the system).

As always, it comes down to price. Does the shoulder mean teams back off and aren't willing to offer as much? Is Oakland willing to take a lesser package now or would they hold onto until the winter and hope to get more then? Certainly should be keeping a close eye on his starts before the deadline to see what the arm looks like, though.

Yeah, going to have to agree to disagree. I'm quite certain they didn't call Prielipp after pick 8 and say "hey, if you're still there in 40 picks are you still asking for $X?"

At what point do they decide to call Prielipp? After pick 30? 40? How do they decide he's the one they want to call? How do they decide to call him and the "handful" they choose to call, and not the other guys who will be available around pick 48? MLB's 48th ranked player went 20th overall. Every team has a vastly different board from the others. Each has different bonus pool situations. Were they taking into account Texas taking Rocker 3rd and targeting Porter later and not Prielipp? Did the Twins call Porter as well when he was falling? Or did he not make the cut? MLB's 65th ranked guy went 24th. Did they call him after pick 20 to see if he'd still be willing to be taken at 48 and thus wasted one of their handful of calls? Do you have inside information that calls happen during the draft or are you guessing because it makes sense to you? Not trying to be rude, honestly asking. If you have inside info I'd be fascinated to hear more.

Who do you think they were calling during that time? Just random agents to confirm that the numbers the agents already told them are still accurate just in case Prielipp fell 20 picks more than they thought he would? That's not how it works. They collect all of that info before the draft. They run scenarios for all kinds of different possibilities of guys falling to different spots and who that means they can take later. I literally just told you Jud Fabian did it last year. I gave you the numbers and everything. He turned down 2 million US dollars because he thought he should've gone higher and wanted 3 million US dollars. He had been picked #40 overall by the Boston Red Sox.

Those conversations happen before draft day. They talk to the player, their reps, and their families before the draft and get an idea of where their price tag is. They aren't calling in between round 2 picks when there's a minute between picks. They aren't calling guys on day 2 and trying to figure out their contract demands then. That's not happening. They adjust their draft board and take the 100k guys off and only draft the 40k guys if that's what it takes to sign guys they drafted earlier. They aren't making those calls during the draft. They know their asking price based on conversations before the draft, not during. Players literally turn down 1st round money every single year in the MLB draft. Every year. Brooks Lee famously told teams coming out of HS that he wouldn't sign for mid to late round money as he felt he was a top 3 talent. Players turn down "first round money" every year. Judd Fabian turned down 2 million from the Red Sox last year after going in the second because he thought he was worth 3 million and wanted to prove himself and be drafted again this year. Didn't work out great for him as he was drafted later this year than last year, but he's an example that players absolutely "jeopardize their draft standing."

Get that nerd talk out of here and just program with your gut! ?

That's basically what I'm trying to say, but you said it more clearly. The Twins had numbers on both guys, but they aren't set in stone, just hand the guy the contract after he's drafted numbers. They had a very educated guess on what they think it'd cost them to sign them both as Sunday night progressed, but that doesn't mean it's a lock Prielipp is getting signed. They obviously like their chances to sign him or they wouldn't have taken him there. But, until he signs on the dotted line, there's definitely a chance he walks away and chases a top 10 slot next year.

Yes, I said multiple times in that post that the Twins likely knew his number before picking him and had a plan to get both him and Lee signed. But they also didn't expect those 2 guys to be there at 8 and 48 and it may have become a much more tight window they are trying to squeeze through. They talk with 100% of the guys they're looking at in the top 10 rounds to get an idea of their demands in order to sketch out a plan and then make decisions as things come up. But Prielipp likely didn't think he was falling to #48 and maybe he's mad, or feeling disrespected, and his number changed. Maybe Lee was mad he fell to 8 and his number changed. They had ideas and clearly felt they could/can make the pool money work. But it's never a done deal until the players sign on the line. They didn't call Prielipp Sunday night to discuss his demands again as he started to fall. They talked to him before the draft and it's far more likely they were talking about what it'd cost to take him at 8, and, while that may seem inconsequential to us, that's a big difference from going #48. We're still talking about humans and they have emotions and that can change things. Maybe he was willing to come to MN at a certain price if he was a top 10 pick even if he really didn't want to be here, but at 48 he doesn't have the prestige of being a top 10 pick so he will demand more to come to a place he doesn't want to be. Maybe his personal goal was to be a top 10 pick and he's willing to wait another year to make that dream come true. The Twins absolutely know what they're doing, but that doesn't make this all a done deal. There are guys every year that don't sign for a variety of reasons.

Not surprising he wouldn't come back from surgery and pitch at the end of the season. Not just for health reasons, either. He would've been rusty and stepping into games against elite competition that'd been playing all year and not rusty. His goal was to set himself up for his pro career, yes, but that doesn't mean he's not going to be demanding big money and be willing to walk away if he doesn't get it. Maybe he'd go back to school, maybe he'd do independent ball, either way he has options. Whether it's college or independent ball doesn't matter, what matters is he has options and could/would/should not sign if the Twins don't offer him top 15-20 (or whatever him and his representatives think he can get) money. He'd have a chance to be pick 1-1 next year if he comes back as the pitcher he was pre-injury. Then you're talking $9 million. Juniors refuse to sign all the time when they aren't offered what they want and re-enter the draft the next year. This wouldn't be an out of the ordinary occurrence.

Do you know him? I mean generally speaking every kid in the draft wants to be a pro asap, but that doesn't mean they all sign, or would sign for less than they think they deserve. If I were going to bet I'd guess he signs as I'm sure the Twins knew what it'd take to sign both Lee and him before they drafted them and knew they could fit them both in with their pool money. But I wouldn't say it's a for sure thing. He wouldn't have to go back to college if he decides not to sign. They'll have to offer him what he wants (again, I assume they knew what that number is and feel comfortable they can hit it) or he'd certainly think about going the Rocker route and hiding away for the next 8 months before throwing a couple independent ball games and skyrocketing up boards if he's showing what he was as a freshman. Prielipp has leverage and will not sign just because he wants to be a pro now. He's going to get his money. The parameters of a deal were 100% discussed before the draft, but it was likely about the possibility of him going 8th overall, not 48th so his price will be high.

Yeah, the injury stuff is interesting with this FO. I love Prielipp at 48. I think that's a perfectly fine spot to take a shot on a guy that could've been taken 1-1 had he stayed healthy. Many said his slider was the best individual pitch in the draft and that makes me pretty comfortable that he's at least a bullpen weapon even if his arm can't handle a full starter workload. But he's got Chris Sale upside with his FB/SL combo so I think his incredible upside is a nice balance with Lee being more of a high floor, but not out of this world ceiling at 8. Now hopefully he holds up and moves relatively quickly and he replaces Castillo at the front of the rotation in 2024. A guy can dream at least ?‍♂️

Where are you seeing Parada grade out higher than Lee? I don't think I've seen a single scouting service grade Parada over Lee in any category outside power. Parada is no more likely to stay at C than Lee is to stay at SS. I mean Fangraphs lists him as a LFer because they have so little faith in his ability to receive, block, or throw.

I was watching the MLB Network airing of the draft and Dan O'Dowd had mentioned at 1 point that he'd expect a number of teams to take him off their board completely because they simply wouldn't draft someone off bullpens and no game action for so long. It sounds like a reasonable enough reason for him to have fallen so far. I think the Twins are going to have to work some pool money magic to sign him and Lee, though.

Someone correct me if I'm wrong here, but I believe Aug 1 is the deadline for signing draftees. So he'll be somewhere playing for the Twins within a few weeks, assuming they sign him. And I'd think they'd be a little aggressive with him to give him a real shot at getting AA PAs at some point this season.

Man, Twins draft a consensus top 5 prospect at 8 and there's still boards filled with people being mad about it. Hard to fathom. Parada is just as likely to stick at catcher as Lee is to stick at short so take that into consideration when complaining about not taking him. "I know you don't draft for need" followed by a complaint that they didn't "draft for need" is a fun little game to play. The Twins got what almost every scout in professional baseball thought was the best pure college hitter in the draft with the 8th pick. Why can't we just be happy about that? It was a fantastic first night for the Twins and that started with getting Lee at 8.

Why are we talking about Celestino, or anyone, as the "future centerfielder in a couple years" or the "heir apparent to Buxton when he stops playing center, sadly sooner rather than later?" Buxton is on a 7 year deal and isn't about to suddenly stop being an elite defender there. And when he does stop being elite (in what? 4 years?) he'll simply be above average before moving to average. The only replacement, or "heir apparent," you need for Buxton is an injury one. If Buxton is on the field anytime in the next 4 years he's playing CF and he'll be among the 3 or 4 best in baseball at defending there. Even injured he's one of the best defenders in baseball. I don't understand those statements at all. Gordon is not a backup CFer beyond being able to play it as part of his utility role. Celestino is a 4th OFer who was basically always projected to be a 4th OFer and is now fulfilling that role. Anyone in the Twins minor leagues at this point that has any chance of playing major league baseball anytime in the next couple years (outside of Royce Lewis) is a 4th OFer, or COFer, type, and not a starting CF type. I don't see the depth here at all.

This is great work, thanks! I think the only player I wouldn't be super thrilled with at 8 is Berry. If he was getting 70 grades on his bat instead of 60 I'd be more open to it, but he's a 2 tool prospect and if either of those don't translate well he's not a major league player. Not my cup of tea with the 8th pick. Any of the top 7 would obviously be ideal, but I wouldn't be upset with Neto or Cross as a consolation prize. Getting their pick of the best arm wouldn't even be a bad situation. They're in a good spot so I think they'll get a good prospect and be able to hand their development teams a really nice piece of clay to mold. Here's to hoping it's someone we see in the bigs in about 3 years.

Sano has a 2.75M buyout next year. He's not getting that 14M. Snell is making 12.5 this year and 16 next. Both of those numbers are higher than Sano's. SD would save 3.25M this year and 13.25 next year in that deal. Not saying they'd do it, but the money wouldn't be the reason.

I really hope there's someone better than last year's 13th pitcher taken available in this class. Bunch of arms that were rated that high until they all got hurt.