chpettit19

Not my predictions, Jim Bowden's predictions. An additional 15% on the deals around 25/year would put them at nearly 29/year. 20% would put them at 30/year. There are currently 6 big league starters making 30/year. They're named Scherzer, Verlander, deGrom, Cole, Strasburg, and Ohtani. There's only 1 other pitcher making 29 (sale). Carlos Rodon signed for 27/year over 6 years last year. Beyond that there's no other starting pitcher in baseball making 25/year. You're suggesting that we'll go from 8 guys making over 25 mil to 12 in 1 offseason? That'd be a big bump. I think 25ish mil a year is probably a pretty good baseline for those guys.

I'm not a big fan of Jim Bowden (he has some takes that prove to wildly off the mark for being a former big league GM), but he just released his free agency predictions on The Athletic. It's behind a paywall so I won't put it all down here, but I wanted to take a look at the top 10 pitchers from his list (he ranked the top 40 FAs with contract predictions). Pitcher Rank (overall rank) Player (contract prediction) 1. (1) Shohei Ohtani (10 years, 477 mil plus incentives and escalators taking it over 500 mil- basically 50 mil/year) 2. (2) Yoshinobu Yamamoto (7 years, 211 mil- 30.1 mil/year) 3. (3) Jordan Montgomery (5 years, 127 mil- 25.4 mil/year) 4. (4) Aaron Nola (5 years, 125 mil- 25 mil/year) 5. (5) Blake Snell (5 years, 122 mil- 24.4 mil/year) 6. (9) Clayton Kershaw (1 year, 22 mil- 22 mil/year) 7. (10) Sonny Gray (3 years, 64 mil- 21.3 mil/year) 8. (11) Eduardo Rodriguez (5 years, 90 mil- 18 mil/year) 9. (12) Michael Wacha (1 year, 16 mil- 16 mil/year) 10. (13) Lucas Giolito (2 years, 24 mil- 12 mil/year) First thing I notice here is how concentrated the top of the rankings are with pitchers. I don't think that should come as a surprise to many as I think it was well known that the position players side of things was pretty shallow this year. But 10 of the top 13 guys being pitchers is a lot. And I don't think it's wrong. Second thing is what we all love coming on here and discussing...who should the Twins target? While I think the Twins could (and should) offer Ohtani that kind of contract, I don't think anyone truly thinks he's an option for the Twins so we can skip over him. I think the next 4 are the ones the Twins should be targeting, and I think all of those contracts are doable for the Twins. I don't expect them to go after Yamamoto even if I think he'll be a star and is the youngest guy on this list by far. To me, the Twins have a 5 year window they should be going more or less all in for as they have Buxton (even though you can't rely on him at all anymore) and Correa under contract for those 5 years, Pablo Lopez for most of it, and nearly all of their young talent under control for at least that long as well. I know people worry about "sustained success" and blocking prospects, but I think the window is open now and relying on the young guys to fill in top of the rotation or lineup spots is too risky. Pairing Lopez and one of the top 5 names on this list at the top of the rotation for the foreseeable future would be massive. Yes, injuries are always a concern for starting pitchers, but relying on Ober, Ryan, Paddack, Varland, and SWR to not only be as good as anyone on this list, but also to stay healthy as well, doesn't sound like a recipe for a World Series title to me. Locking in Lopez, FA X, Ryan, Ober, and Paddack as your rotation for the next 2 years, plus more for 4 of those guys, means you can move someone like Varland to the pen (not to start 2024, but eventually) if he can't take the next step, you can trade someone like SWR for a bat if he starts performing next year, and you can truly rely on your system for depth instead of needing it to produce stars regularly. Signing one of those top 5 guys would be my first task to complete this offseason if I were in charge of the FO. And it'd be for 4+ years. I think getting that done means you can focus almost entirely on the offense (and pen) moving forward as you have your rotation pretty well locked up with the guys coming up in the system fighting to either push one of these guys out, or take over Paddack's spot in 2026. I know a lot of people like the Twins system, but I don't see any pitcher in there that's likely to match Lopez or anyone at the top of this list anytime soon. And if they do, great! Then you have 3 frontline guys. I'd take Sonny back for a year (I don't expect him to be able to repeat his production this season for much longer, if at all) or Rodriguez, but those top 5 guys is what I'd like to see the Twins go after, and get. Kershaw isn't an option, and the 2 Japanese stars likely aren't realistic either. So, really, it's Montgomery, Nola, and Snell that I'd like. In that order, but I'd take any of them. What do others think? Realistic for the Twins to get any of these guys? Who would you want? And for how long?

I think the Twins will do everything they can to not have a significant payroll decrease this season. Not because of some grand gesture of goodwill, but because it'd be a terrible business decision to finally beat the streak, have fans show up and support them like crazy in the postseason, and then turn around and tell fans they're cutting payroll. Will some people accept/buy the TV revenue loss as a legitimate reason and be ok with it? Sure. Will some people look at the system and be happy to see a youth movement that fits in with the lower payroll? Sure. But will the average fan who they rely on for viewership and ticket sales be as informed as the average TD member? I highly doubt it. They've built up a ton of hope, and happy feelings, about the team now. To turn around and throw water on your own fire with a payroll cut seems like it'd be a horrible decision and would ruin the vibes while they're trying to sell more season ticket packages, and individual game tickets eventually. They've known this contract was ending, and that the current model was in turmoil, for years. I'd bet they have a plan to replace this revenue and maintain their payroll. I definitely bet that the Pohlads expect them to have a plan. Even though they'll sell their story of losing a bunch of money like the owners do every year, especially around CBA negotiation time. The Twins are worth $2+ billion, and the value keeps going up. Companies that size don't just shrug their shoulders and say there's nothing they can do about losing one of their largest revenue streams. They will replace that money. Just a matter of how.

I wouldn't move him just to move him, but if they can find a suitable return I wouldn't be surprised at all if he's moved. All comes down to what they can get back for him.

Yeah, we're just going to have to agree to disagree that Lee is ready to beat out Polanco and Julien for a starting spot. I love the enthusiasm, but that's selling Polanco and Julien way short. Julien OPSed .839 in 109 games in the majors (130 OPS+). Brooks Lee OPSed .808 in the minors, including a .731 OPS in AAA. Julien beat him by 100 points of OPS while in the majors and Lee in the minors. They're not giving Lee the 2B job over Julien. Polanco had a .789 OPS in the majors to Lee's .731 in AAA. He had a 115 OPS+. It wouldn't be the craziest thing in the world for Brooks to OPS just under .800 as a rookie, but you're not assuming he's going to do that after OPSing .731 in AAA and handing him a starting spot over Polanco. Development is best done at the highest level you can get the most ABs. For Brooks Lee at the start of 2024 (with the current makeup of the roster) that level is AAA. Using Polanco's early MLB career doesn't work when arguing for Lee to get an opening day roster spot. Polanco played 9 combined games, and had 20 combined plate appearances, in his age 20 and 21 seasons. He was up for 3 emergency stints, not because they were trying to develop him that way. They didn't do that because they thought it was best for Polanco, they did it because he was the last man standing on the 40-man for those spots.

Polanco has 2 years left, fyi.

They are not going to keep Lee as the backup to all those guys. They will not call him up for a non-everyday role. They just won't. That's why they sent Julien and Wallner back down this year. It's why they sent Lewis down last year. Top prospects don't get backup roles because that's not how you develop prospects. It's either an everyday job or he's in AAA. Brooks Lee is not taking over Farmer's role.

I understand the point you're trying to make, but that's why the other poster showed you other players fielding percentages. Arraez had better minor league fielding numbers than Correa, would you argue Arraez is better than Correa at fielding? Arraez had better minor league fielding numbers than Lewis, would you argue Arraez is better than Lewis at fielding? Nobody would honestly make those arguments. Have you ever watched Brooks Lee field? He's not Correa, but he's certainly a more natural fielder than Julien. Pointing to their fielding percentages doesn't just automatically equal Lee is a worse fielder than Julien. Just like it doesn't make Arraez better than Correa or Lewis.

I'm pretty sure the point is that simply looking at minor league fielding percentages isn't really telling you enough to decide if someone is a good fielder or not.

I think moving Polanco for pitching makes a ton of sense if you can get a controllable arm for him + prospects. I think that would put Lee as the next man up for the IF behind Correa, Lewis, and Julien. If you can't get a legit arm for him then I absolutely keep Polanco and add him to the other 3 names to rotate in at the DH position and keep them all fresh. They're 100% picking up Polanco's option, but he's my #1 current player to watch this offseason as I think the look of the team can shift drastically depending on what he's worth on the trade market.

I actually don't think Farmer (or Gordon) have anything to do with Lee getting his shot in the majors. They're not going to give him a backup role. He won't get his shot until he's got a starting spot to step into. Lewis, Correa, Julien, and Polanco are the guys Lee has to beat out. I don't see any chance of that happening on opening day unless there's an injury or 2. They want Lee getting everyday ABs, and he won't be in the bigs until there's an everyday job open for him. He's not taking Farmer or Gordon's jobs, but they're also not blocking him in any way. If one of them go down Lee wouldn't be the callup for them. Lee just has to prove he's ready for his shot, and wait for a starting job to come open.

Tied for 3rd with Texas. Atlanta actually tied the Twins record from 2019 with 307 HRs which was far and away #1.

I wonder how his deferred money works. I don't think the Twins would want anything to do with that, but I'm sure they'd negotiate to get Boston to still pay for that. I wouldn't give up anything of value for him, but if you can get him for a system depth piece, and have Boston eat his deferred money, he'd be an intriguing bounce back bet. I'd like to see them get a more sure thing for the rotation, though.

It'd be one heck of a bold move by the FO to trade the new fan favorite after what he just did in the playoffs. Not saying it'd be the wrong move (depending on the options), but it'd take some real guts to move Lewis at this point. Yeah, I have no idea if the Padres would move Soto, but he's the most exciting name outside of Ohtani that's been thrown out there in the national market. Although, there's been whispers about Trout maybe getting moved so maybe Soto is the 3rd most exciting remote possibility. I agree with all the rest of that paragraph. I don't really care for BTV beyond it being an interesting tool. Just way too many variables not accounted for. Like what the teams need. Players are worth different things to different teams. I like Wallner, but don't love him. I think his Ks will always be a problem and that limits his ceiling. But those are all the questions the FO needs to be asking, and, really, they're the ones that they need to get right more often than not. Is Wallner a sell high candidate? Or is this just his mid-point in value. Only time will tell. But I'd be willing to trade him in the right deal. Although, I'd trade anyone in the right deal.

If you can get Juan Soto for a package built around Wallner I think you have to do it, even just for 1 year. Alonso would be a really nice fit, too, if you believe his BA is going to bounce back. Have him split time between 1B and DH while locking him into the 3 or 4 hole for 162 games. Santander is an intriguing option. Wonder what it'd take to get him. I wouldn't be looking to trade any of their top handful of prospects for him because he's not a clear step up for the offense. This offense doesn't need more 120ish OPS/wRC+ bats, they need 140+ OPS/wRC+ bats. I have no real interest in McCormick. I think he's more likely to return to being a 110ish OPS/wRC+ bat than to stick as a 130ish OPS/wRC+ bat. 110 is certainly serviceable, and a useful player, but not somebody I trade real assets for because he doesn't improve the top of the lineup, and that's where the Twins need improvement. I think there's 2 real needs for this team this offseason. 1. Replace Gray at the top of the rotation with a controllable arm. 2. Find an elite bat that you can plug in somewhere in the 2-4 spots in the lineup everyday. To fill both of those needs it's likely going to take a painful decision or 2 on someone who's been really good for this team for a long time (Polanco) or someone a lot of fans have great hope for (Wallner, Lee, or Rodriguez). The Twins look to have a really nice group of legit, young MLB talent ready, or near ready, to take over certain spots. The Twins don't look to have many truly elite bats, and they need to find them, even if it means giving up someone we like. You have a 5 year window coming up where you're already invested in winning now. You have Buxton and Correa signed for that window, and your new, young guys are coming up to help form the core. The young guys have a couple more years of being very cheap so you should be able to add an impact arm or bat for this stretch without too much concern over finances. Adding a legit top talent to a team that finally broke "the streak" should do nothing but help the bottom line as you'd be selling more tickets and merch. The fans are invested again. Now is the time to strike. Coming out of this offseason without an addition to the front of the rotation, or top of the lineup, would be such a travesty, and a horrible business decision. You can't take a step back now. The kids are key to the future success of this organization, but adding a proven veteran is vital, too. I know people are excited to see all the kids come up and succeed, but it's a huge risk to not add to this team and rely almost entirely on the youth to all succeed and take steps forward.

The Twins should never be below 17th in payroll, so we can agree on that. But we will not agree on the TV revenue. Dave St Pete and the folks in the business department have the best boss in the corporate world if they're able to go to the Pohlads and say "we've lost the largest revenue stream we're responsible for and we just can't replace it, sorry" and have the Pohlads be ok with that. The Padres and Diamondbacks business departments may have an argument for having to cut payroll because they had their contracts ended in the middle. The Twins contract was already set to end after 2023. Dave and the business department already knew that, and knew the state of Ballys/Diamond/Sinclair, and should have been talking about possible options for years in preparation for the end of the Ballys deal. Not a lot of corporate owners who just shrug their shoulders and accept their largest revenue stream going away without heads rolling. The end of this TV deal was a known problem, and the Pohlads absolutely expect the business department to have a plan to replace that revenue. So why shouldn't we expect the payroll to stay the same?

Yes, there is a Location+. And a pitching+.

Reliever: Starter: To keep this tied to SWR, it's interesting to see his reliever Stuff+ number beat Paddack and Varland. I wouldn't have predicted that.

Wait until you hear about Location+!

The challenge, I think, is how long you can keep him on the 40-man. Now I certainly don't think it's a concern for 2024, but beyond that starts to get questionable if he's not able to better establish himself in his age 23 season. That's just the nature of options and 40-man rules. He'll still have an option left for 2025, but I think we all hope other guys continue to improve and impress and then you start looking at 40-man spots. "Giving up" can be such a loaded phrase there, right? Sometimes it's not about "giving up" on a guy, but they just get passed over. You only have 40 spots. You can still believe in a 24 year old (after next year) and remove them from the 40-man simply because somebody has passed them over. Will be interesting to see how he does next year. I think it's a big year for him, and probably the last season for the Balazovic, Sands, Winder, etc. group. At least I hope it is in the sense that I hope new guys come up and surpass these guys who seem to be stalling.

I think this is a good representation of why it's so important to replace Gray with someone who can replicate that type of production. Can Ober take that next step? Ryan maintain his early season production for a full season? Paddack come back and throw 30+ starts of 5-6+ innings? I don't know that I trust any of those things to come true to replace Gray's numbers. I love those 3 as starters 3-5 in the rotation to be able to have 1 of them step up and perhaps even improve on Ryan's status as the #3 arm. But I think an outside acquisition is needed to give them the best possible option of finding a #2 who can pair with Lopez at the top of their 2024 playoff staff. But they certainly matched up well at the 1-2 spots this year. Was fun to finally have some starters worth tuning in for!

I think even leaving the money completely out of it I'd like to shoot higher than Maeda. I like him, and think that was a win of a trade for the Twins. I'd be super happy with him as a 4th/5th starter if I thought we had 3 sure fire playoff starters ahead of him. I know many will disagree, but I don't think we have 3 sure fire playoff starters right now. I think Lopez is clearly one, but Ryan, Ober, and Paddack all have real question marks for me. I'd like to shoot for someone I have more certainty slotting in next to Lopez. I won't be upset if they bring Maeda back. I think it's a very reasonable thing to do. But when you have 4 rotation spots locked up, and your 6th guy in AAA likely locked up, I think the goal should be to shoot as high as you can when filling that last spot, and I just wouldn't lock Maeda into that spot early in the offseason. There's always some maneuvering you can do if you lock him up and another option presents itself, but I'd prefer to get a better lay of the land, especially before dropping 20+M on my last rotation spot. Good convo in this thread, though. Nice topic, and it'll be interesting to see what the Twins do to fill that last spot.

I think best case scenario, and what I'm hoping for while not expecting, is a Jackson Holliday style rise through the system. Reaching AAA at the tail end of 2024 would be fantastic. Not expecting it, but sure would be awesome. But I think AA is a realistic, wonderful outcome for him in 2024. AA with an AFL appearance would have me very excited for 2025. He's very young, and there's a long ways to go, but it sure would be great for the Twins to have one of these phenoms fly up the system. An MLB debut before he can have a legal drink to celebrate it would be a fantastic outcome, and I think it's relatively reasonable.

I'm suggesting Jhoan Duran is a far better bet to close out a 1 run playoff game than Pagan is. I'm not sure what the confusion is. Do you disagree with that statement? I said he wouldn't sign one that far below market rate. I didn't say to pay him 20 mil a year from now on, I said he wasn't likely to leave 100 mil on the table so you were going to have to increase the numbers from what Seth suggested.. Yes, I feel better with you saying top half of the league instead of top of the league if you mean top half and not top. But even top half is a stretch. They have 2 seasons clearly in the top half. 2 right at the halfway point. And 3 seasons clearly in the bottom half. These boards are full of many of us complaining about the bullpen building every offseason, and during every season. Is the goal to be a "top half of the league" team or a "top of the league" team? I'd like to be top of the league, but not every fan has the same goal. Being the 15th best offense or rotation wouldn't impress many of us, why should we be impressed that they were the 15th best bullpen while being carried for most of the season by the guy people seem to be ok moving on from because he's no more trustworthy than Pagan or any random #4 starter? You think this pen would be "top half of the league" without Duran? I certainly don't.

FYI they'd get a pick if he signed with anyone else at any number, but to get a pick after the first round he needs to sign for 50M or more. If he doesn't get that they get a pick after comp round b (so after the 2nd round).