chpettit19

Ideally the young guys put them in a spot to make some really tough decisions in the next couple years. I'd bet/hope that they use some option years to really let things play out. That's part of my hesitation with people wanting to clear too much space for young guys (like dropping Gordon to start Martin in MLB). It's certainly not ideal to have guys start in AAA when they're MLB ready, but it really gives them the best chance to maximize their team over 162 and into the playoffs. I didn't like Ober starting in AAA last year, but it worked out great, I think. Making the same kind of moves to get some guys established while maintaining maximum depth for the next few years sounds ideal to me. Don't rely on having guessed right, but give yourself some time to find the top guys even if it means Wallner, Julien and Ober types have to spend a little extra time on the farm. To tie this back into the Royals theme here, I think the near-term future of the Central is going to be determined by which squad picks the right young guys to build around. Cleveland and Detroit especially have some young guys on the cusp as well. Most of KC's youth is here so they've tried to open a 2 year window to give them a little length. But the Central overall is young. The team that keeps the best, and makes the best trades for the rest, can really take hold of this division.

I think it's a question of is he so much better than Gordon that it's worth getting rid of Gordon for? I think that's a pretty big leap and it's pretty reasonable to hold onto Gordon to start the year and let Martin show he can dominate AAA before they force themselves to rely on him for MLB production.

I'd be good with a position player, too. Doesn't need to be pitching as far as I'm concerned. Jorge Soler for 3 years would make me happy, and I believe should be affordable. I don't expect that, but I think 3/45 (I think that was The Athletic's estimate for him) should be a realistic deal for the Twins, and it comes off the books right as the youngsters start getting truly costly (assuming they perform well the next few years). If they could get an arm for 3 years I'd be happy with that, too, but I don't think that's realistic for Montgomery or Snell (I'm terrified of paying Snell anyways). But maybe there's an arm with 3 years of control left that they could trade for? I don't know. I just see a 3 year window where I wish they'd be aggressive with some things while still being reasonable. Even getting to 135ish this year in payroll (where they were in 2022) would give them a shot at someone like Soler I think. Or a trade if there's someone available that makes sense.

I have never said there's no reason to reduce payroll from 2023. Never. Not once. I've argued that it's a short-term view that I don't agree with and I wish they'd choose to take a financial risk, or even guaranteed loss in 2024 from a Twins LLC perspective only, to invest in their product for the long-term growth of their company because it's pocket change for them as a family. I accept and acknowledge the 2024 profit situation and am not arguing that they could spend 150+ and still make their desired profit, or any profit. I'm not going to go down this road with you again. You care about the Pohlad's year over year profit and trust public estimates of their revenue. I don't care about the Pohlad's making profits every year and don't trust public estimates. We know where we each stand on that. We're not having that discussion again. But none of that is the point I was making when I responded to that other poster. The point is that the arb money doesn't start hurting until 2027 because of the offsetting loss of contracts the next 2 offseasons. So any room they have now will still be there until 2027. So if they wanted to/had the room to add a contract this offseason they have a 3 year window before it actually starts hurting them. 2027 is the year where things come together between the arb raises and large contracts they have now. Not 2025 or 2026. 2027.

You're assuming they had 267 in revenue. You're assuming they actually spent the BAM money on the roster. You're assuming that revenue doesn't grow. You're assuming just as much as the rest of us. Yes, the arb money will go up 15-20 mil in 2026. And the base comes down 17.5 with Vazquez and Paddack no longer on the roster. So now you're up about 3 mil total. So, like I said, if they were going to be sticking in that 150+ range (didn't say they should, didn't say they would, said if they were going to) they'd have plenty of space for a Montgomery or Snell or whatever big contract they wanted until 2027 when they don't lose contracts to make up for the boost in arb deals. Let's say it's 140, though, if they can't find a way to make 20 mil useful in adding wins to this team (free agency isn't the only way to increase payroll spend) they should find new people to run the team.

I see just over 90 mil in payroll for next year (I highly doubt they keep Farmer at another 6 mil clip, and Alcala is holding on by a thread) before pre-arb and arb deals. 37 for Correa, 15 for Buck, 10 for Vazquez, 22 for Lopez, 7.5 for Paddack puts you in the low 90s. The arb raises in the first year for those guys is going to be very minimal. Couple million a piece or so. So then you'd be at 100ish mil including those guys. Correa's money starts going down after that while they also lose Vazquez and Paddack money which allows for the higher arb numbers as those guys hit their 2nd year of arbitration. The money doesn't really start being a problem until 2027 when those guys will be deep into the arb process. But 2027 is Lopez's last year, and none of the other young guys hit arbitration until 2027/2028 (depending on super 2 status). And 2028 is the last year of guaranteed money for Buxton and Correa. So you have nearly 70 mil coming off the books after 2027/2028. And typically you expect payrolls to keep increasing year over year with inflation and the natural growth of the business. I'd argue the Twins are in great position to add money if they were going to be sticking in that 150+ mil range this year and growing. But they've chosen not to so here we are talking about pillow contracts. But with all the talk of turning over most of the roster to pre-arb players the Twins could/should be in a great spot to sign another big deal through 2027/2028. The pre-arb contracts have them in a great spot.

I really hope Royce puts the Twins in a position after this year that the Witt deal is the kind of thing we're looking at for a Royce extension. Would be fun to see those 2 (probably with Robert if he's still in Chicago) battle it out for best player in the central for the next decade (as Ramirez starts to decline).

Michael Wacha is going into his age 32 season, not 34. Here's a couple of Twins pitchers and some guys who are older than Wacha. From the last 2 years. So that's actually Wheeler's ages 32-33 seasons that the Royals just signed Wacha for.

I don't know if embarrassing is the right word, but it certainly doesn't make me thrilled that the Twins are seeing their competitive window open and are choosing to slash payroll instead of trying to take advantage of a super weak division. KC and Detroit are trying. I know we all like to point at the young Twins players and say we're golden because they're going to improve, but those teams have young guys that should improve as well. Along with Cleveland. I think our perceived superiority in the central is overstated. I think it's a tighter race than people expect. Not because those other 3 teams are great, but because the Twins aren't either. Cleveland won this division going away in 2022 with young talent that was certain to improve and give them the chance to dominate this division. The Twins standing pat and making no overall improvement to the 2024 team has kept the door open for the other teams to make a run. If I believed Twins ownership cared about winning I'd say they should be embarrassed. But I don't think that's their priority so I don't think it's the right word for them. But it certainly isn't encouraging as a fan that they're getting outspent by KC and we're watching 2 other division teams at least make noticeable efforts to improve their team overall while the Twins seem to be content shifting pieces around while not increasing their overall talent. We'll see who's young talent is able to carry them this year. I think it'll be more of a battle than folks expect.

Not looking for guesses on other moves they'll make moving forward and what they may do to the win total, but we've finally had some moves made and the reactions seem to be pretty varied. Wanted to get a feel for where people are at on this team as it stands today. So if opening day were tomorrow and we were running out the team as it stands at 2 PM central on 2/5/2024, how many wins do you all think the Twins will earn in 2024?

Interesting. Why is that? Do you prefer a different publication over him? We all have different tastes in lists so just curious what you don't put stock in with Law.

I don't think we see a Kepler extension before the season. Emma is going to start using up options this year and they're going to give him every chance to earn an MLB spot the next couple seasons. Not to mention Martin, Gordon, Larnach, and even Kirilloff depending on how all the young guys pan out. I'd expect the Twins to let the season play out and see what those guys do to see if they believe they can fill the role internally for 2025 and beyond. It most certainly puts them in a tough spot after the year if nobody else shows they're a good cOF option for 2025, but I don't think they're going to lock themselves into Kepler before the year. Unless it's on a deal that doesn't include a raise of any kind, but I'm not sure why he'd sign a deal like that.

My guess is their plan is to give Gordon run early to see what he can do. I don't think they care as much about option flexibility as they do depth. Since he's cheap I'd guess they're more open to moving on from him early. Wouldn't surprise me to see him moved during the spring, maybe even as opening day approaches depending on how everyone has played and what other team's needs are. Totally on board with the idea that the 26th guy, 13th hitter really, should be someone with options or a difference maker. Mostly because I don't see any other hitters they're likely to move on from with a DFA. Unless Castro is someone they're willing to bounce back and forth if he struggles early. Santana and Farmer aren't getting cut would be my guess. I hope they haven't shut the door on adding a legit heart of the order bat, but my guess is we're looking at more or less the start of st roster.

You know I'm all for the payroll going up. I just don't expect it. My guess is only small moves from here on out, but my hope is a difference maker. They've surprised me before so we'll see.

I'd guess Snell, Montgomery, Bellinger, and Soler are hoping the finalization of the Bally bankruptcy stuff opens their markets a little more. I would be a little surprised if the Twins handed out any multi-year deals this offseason, unless it's an internal extension. I think on a 1 year deal it'll take 15-20 to sign Soler (he turned down his up to 13 mil option so going to need more than that), but 3/39-45 sounds about right for a multi-year deal for him. I'm just not sold the Twins have even 15 more to spend this offseason or that they'll do multi-year deals so I'm not sold they could get Soler. I'd think if he were a possibility they wouldn't have signed Santana. But I'd be very happy to be surprised.

Then Castro is in the same boat as Gordon because neither is taking ABs away from any of the everyday lefties in the lineup. I don't think they have any major moves left because I don't think they're looking to spend anymore money. But, yes, Soler would be a ceiling raiser and that I'd be on board with. Bringing in any of these other mid- to upper-30s guys doesn't interest me at all. They have the floor set and they don't need to add more to it. They don't need to add another $5-10 mil veteran they won't move on from in the name of "depth" even if they're terrible all year. Farmer and Santana are enough. If they're going to spend 15-20 on Soler, great, but I don't think that's a realistic option.

Isn't Castro that guy? I mean there's no harm in that, but I don't see it making this team any better. Buxton, Kepler, Correa, and Lewis have everyday jobs locked down. Wallner, Julien, and Kirilloff are starting against all the righties. Farmer, Santana, and Castro are starting against all the lefties. Jeffers and Vazquez are splitting duties behind the plate. At least that's how I'd read it right now. That means they have 8 lineup spots locked in vs righties, and 8 lineup spots locked in vs lefties. If they're equally talented why does it matter if it's Gordon or right handed hitter X? I think the real argument would simply be that you want the best CF replacement you can get. No matter which side of the plate they hit from. I'd say Buxton insurance is the biggest need and it's just a matter of deciding if you like Gordon or someone outside the org better for that. C: Jeffers 55-60%, Vazquez 40-45% 1B: Kirilloff vs righties, Santana vs lefties 2B: Julien vs righties, Farmer vs lefties 3B: Lewis SS: Correa LF: Wallner vs righties, Castro vs lefties CF: Buxton as much as he can, Gordon (for now) when Buxton can't go RF: Kepler DH: Rotating I don't see a huge difference in having a RH bat instead of Gordon, unless you think Castro is a clear upgrade as the Buxton insurance in CF and you just want another RH bat for LF with Wallner.

I didn't suggest giving any rookies opening day jobs. The 26 man is full with 0 rookies on it. My point is that if you're going to add outside talent make it be clearly above average talent, not guys who's most likely best outcome is being a league average guy. The Twins have enough of those. Adding more doesn't improve this team.

The Twins have enough floor. It's time to start adding ceiling. Kike is not a ceiling adder. Let's stop looking for league average, at best, veterans with no futures for this team and raise our expectations a little. DeSclafani and Santana are enough floor additions for this team. If they aren't going to add ceiling raising talent just let the kids play.

No available RH OF bat outside of Jorge Soler raises the ceiling on this team. They have enough floor. It's time to start adding ceiling, and none of the retread mid- to upper-30s vets are doing that. If they're not going to sign or trade for legitimate ceiling raising talent it's time to just let the kids play.

Per Gleeman, Santana hasn't topped a .730 OPS against righties since 2019. His resurgence last year got him to .727. A 103 OPS+ in his resurgence year isn't very exciting. Uninspiring is probably the word I'd use here. When you surge back to league average as a 37 year old I'm not going to bet on you being a huge piece as a 38 year old. Short side of a platoon at 1B/DH doesn't feel like a huge hole filled. 103 OPS+ is not someone I want to "factor into the middle of the lineup" as Nick suggests. Against righties he's a bottom of the lineup hitter at best. I've always loved his approach at the plate, and I'll definitely welcome a guy who's going to help the team's miserable K rate. This putting the payroll back where it was with Polanco while the team knows more or less what their Bally deal is worth (according to reports) sure feels like they've maxed out the budget. I hope to be surprised with more moves, but this feels like more or less the squad that's heading to Florida in a couple weeks. We shall see.

Yeah, they're interesting to follow. No more Burnes, Woodruff (his injury blew that up anyways), or Houser in the rotation, but added Hoskins. Peralta, Miley, Ross, Rea, Gasser is a much different rotation than Burnes, Woodruff, and Peralta. I'd bet they think Hall is ready to plug into the rotation and have some high hopes for him. Or Misiorowski. They've got a lot of young guys who have debuted, or are ready to debut, so I can understand the Hoskins signing if you think your youngsters are ready now. But that rotation took a massive hit this offseason and they're trying to thread a pretty tight needle here. Luckily for them the NL Central isn't a great division by any means. But what they do with Adames will be interesting. Maybe more of a deadline deal after they see what Ortiz can do?

Do the Brewers think Ortiz is ready to hit enough to be their starting SS and try to spin Adames into something else now? If Hall or Misiorowski can step into the rotation and live up to their prospect rankings over the years they could still be very good. Or both of them end up with Williams in the pen and they would have an absolute wipeout pen. They seem to be trying to pull off the ol' "competitive rebuild" as they transition to a new young core. Will be interesting to see which of their young guys can step up and if this is the start of something really good or if it turns into a flat out rebuild.

Doesn't he already throw a sweeper? I don't know enough about his arsenal to know what to call his slider. But I'd think a change would be the more likely 3rd pitch if he's fastball slider now, but I don't know what his slider is really like. But I'd think their belief in his ability to efficiently add a 3rd pitch would be the deciding factor. At 23 he doesn't have a ton of time to tinker with a 3rd pitch. But certainly hope that's what he's working on right now!

He's such a wildly difficult player to peg because of his injuries (super rare for the Twins recently, I know). He's had some stretches where I get super excited for who he can be because he looks like a perennial All Star who can do it all at the plate. Then he falls off and looks completely lost. I still think he has maybe the most natural hitting ability on the team, but he needs to show it in a healthy season. If Lee and Martin take off early, or even Severino and/or Miranda, I could definitely see them considering Kirilloff as a trade chip. Julien got some games in the cOF a few years ago and I really wish I knew what that looked like. I don't expect Lewis to be considered an OF option ever, but I'd put him out there if it were up to me and it'd allow for the best 9 guys to be in the lineup. But I know the CF injury has lead to a lot of trepidation there, including by him. So I don't expect it, but if I were running the team it'd be on the table for me. Lee has no shot, though. I've seen him run and he should limit that to short areas in the IF. I wonder what Julien vs Kirilloff in the OF is like. I question how bad Julien was if they decided the fielder we saw early in the year last year was better than the defender they saw for 120ish innings out there in the minors. Would he be better or worse than Kirilloff out there?