chpettit19

Because the chances of keeping that "really good desirable player" after next season is somewhere between 0 and 5%. And basic asset management tells us to get 2 different assets that they have 100% chance of keeping beyond next season. Especially because the odds of next season being dramatically better than this one are about the same as the odds the Twins keep Ryan beyond 2027. The question isn't at all whether the 2 prospects are likely to turn out as well as Ryan, it is whether or not having those 2 prospects is better than having 1 possible comp pick. Unless you're here to make the argument that the Twins should be going all in on 2027, you need to acknowledge the realities of the chances the Twins actually keep Ryan. For context, Dan Hayes has reported his requested deal last offseason was 7 years, 210 million. Very likely significantly above market value in years and total money. They agreed to a mutual option for next year last offseason. They've already discussed his future with the team. And he isn't signed. The Twins aren't likely to keep Joe Ryan. Most everyone here would prefer Joe being extended for another 4 years or so. But that isn't going to happen. So, the 2 prospects are pretty easily the better option, in many of our opinions.

I'm old enough to remember the days when the Twins didn't need position player prospects because they had Larnach, Wallner, Rodriguez, Julien, Miranda, Martin, and Lewis. Then they added Lee and REALLY didn't need position player prospects. Especially infield prospects. And then they added Keaschall and they weren't going to even be able to think about a position player prospect for another half a decade. Oh, and they added Jenkins. As it turns out, there's no such thing as having a system filled with any kind of prospect. Because prospects fail. A lot. The Twins need as much high-end talent as they can get until their major league roster is full of All Stars at every position. And then they should work on getting All Stars with options because there'll be injuries. I think the packages presented here definitely have flaws. The Mariners aren't trading the best pitching prospect in baseball for anybody that's reasonably available in a trade and definitely aren't adding another piece to him in a trade for Joe Ryan, for example. But the idea that the Twins could bring back a position player prospect in a trade for Joe is not one of the flaws.

Why not? Giver the whole kit and AAA kaboodle. I'd be totally fine running out some of the most obscene lineups for the next couple weeks after the deadline to see what some of the AAA filler looks like. Why not? Save me the rookie eligibility of our big guns but see if there's a diamond in the rough amongst the mid-20s guys at AAA. You never know. If they all look completely and utterly overmatched, send them back down or DFA them or whatever you want to do and start the "real" youngsters on their MLB journeys.

I think this is probably right. Jeffers, an Emma or Tait type, and somebody more random should be awfully tempting to the M's. We'll obviously never really know, but I'd be so incredibly frustrated with the Twins if they never called Dipoto and said "I have Jeffers, you have Hancock, how do we make this work?" and at least give it a real run at him.

It is definitely easier to make trades on the internet or in games. But I actually think it's a realistic possibility to pull something like that off. Not in terms of likelihood, but in terms of there being a path to moving pieces in such a way that you don't look like you blew up the now while also boosting your odds in the future. To me, the Hancock thing is incredibly intriguing. Jeffers is likely to be one of the better right handed bats on the market. Especially now that Boston has gone nuclear and Contreras is less likely to be dealt. Suzuki, Paredes, and Jeffers are probably your top 3 righty bats from the rumors I've seen of who may be available. That should make there a very real conversation to be had with the Mariners. If you can get Hancock, it really opens the doors to a wide variety of moves that don't sacrifice 2027 but help build beyond that. I'd be blowing up Dipoto's phone if I were Zoll.

I'll do you 1 better, I would give our new Pohlad overlord another year before complaining about him being terrible.

If the Twins are willing to get wild and wheel and deal this deadline, it could be very interesting. I don't find it likely, but I don't think it's outrageous. I still think going and getting Hancock with a package built around Jeffers is incredibly interesting. Put Emma with him if that's what Seattle wants. To me, that then opens up a trade of Ryan elsewhere with Hancock taking his spot in the rotation (I mean literally pitching on the days Ryan would have, not as any statement on skill level). Whether it's my Atlanta idea or something else. If I can get 2 top 100 prospects and Emerson Hancock for Ryan, Jeffers, and a prospect, I'm thrilled.

Could I see Pohlad finding this sort of idea intriguing as he continues to point at .500 as some sort of success? Sure. But I don't see the value in bringing back Rogers at all. Why not just offer him that deal in the offseason while getting better prospects in return in the trade? Have my cake and eat it, too.

2 top 100 prospects? Yes, I'd still want to trade Ryan if the return is 2 top 100 prospects. The Twins are going to lose that great player anyway. The question isn't whether or not people would rather have Joe Ryan than 2 unknowns, it's whether they'd rather have the unknowns or nothing after the team goes 3 straight years under .500 while having the 4th one be 1 game over .500.

Oh, I'm always happy to get more arms. Never enough. I just think it's harder to get multiple top level arms in a deal than an arm and a bat. Every team wants more pitching. Even the Dodgers, and they have like 37 Cy Young candidates (slight exaggeration, maybe). If the Twins can get a deal for 2 top 100 arms, I'd be all for it.

Dang, just asked a question. If you're going to make a statement like "Whomever wrote this seems woefully unqualified to have their opinions quoted on this site" I assumed you'd be able to provide the data to back it up. My bad. Was curious what your research showed since you said "I've done this analysis before." Wasn't asking for new analysis, just the stuff you claimed you'd already done.

Haha, I understand the sarcasm, but Hartman is probably the best CFer we'd have if they got him. He's a faster and a better defender than Jenkins or Emma or any of those other guys. He'd probably be our #3 or 4 prospect depending on how people view him vs Culpepper. I don't care if we have 1000 lefty outfielders if he's better than 997 of them. Just get me more talent.

I don't think this is a crazy take at all. Just not my line of thinking. I don't care if they get a close to ready AAA arm back for Ryan. Lopez, Taj, Abel, Matthews, Ober, Rojas, and Prielipp are enough arms for my liking at this point. I'm not playing for this year at all. Don't care who they throw out there in Ryan's place for the rest of 2026. They have the offseason to add depth to the rotation for 2027. Paredes as the 8th arm going into next year doesn't even make me mad. Couple offseason fliers and I'd be happy with the state of the rotation going into 2027. I'd expect Caminiti and Hartman to both end this season in AA. Quick is already there. That'd give me 2 AA arms with good ceiling looking at 2028 debut possibilities. And another offseason to load up more there if needed. I just don't think the rotation is as dire as others do. And if I can spin Jeffers plus into Emerson Hancock, I'm really not worried. My biggest complaint with the Twins has been that they stopped the rebuild midstream. Tommy Boy not letting them finish the job of setting this up as a transition year to get the young guys experience has made it more difficult to really get some momentum going towards truly building a winner, in my opinion. I think he actually hurt what I believe his goal truly is. I think he really does want a winner sooner than later, but I think not moving the rest of the veteran types has stuck them in a middle ground of trying to sell .500 as a success while also not putting them in a better spot for 2027 and beyond. I think they have enough between MLB and AAA that a few offseason adds could have put them in a really good spot for 2027 even without Ryan and/or Pablo and Jeffers. But I think they've pushed the window back by trying to win this year. I'm not worried as much about getting guys back in any of these deals that can help immediately. I just want ceiling. If they aren't here til 2028, that's totally fine with me. The window should be opening in 2027, but it's not a 1 year window. They're setting themselves up for a possible 1 year window by not moving Ryan and Lopez, but that sort of decision would likely come with a lessened chance at truly opening the window beyond that. I don't care about 2026 at all. This team isn't good enough. And they've moved the transition year to next year, so I'm less interested in opening day 2027 performance than I am with 2nd half 2027 performance. So I'll take the highest ceiling guys I can get that can be part of a window starting late 2027 and moving forward. The sustainable part of winning is important, too. And grabbing guys that debut a year or 2 after the current wave helps with that.

Johan Santana did make 5 playoff starts for the Twins. I think he'd probably argue he wasn't a #3 starter. What were the rankings for runs allowed by playoff teams? Worse than the rankings for runs scored?

What do you see as the Twins competitive window? And who are the guys driving it?

Isn't Michael Harris their CFer? They could use an OFer, especially with Acuna's injuries, but they also need pitching. Sale is 37 years old. They have Lopez and Perez in their rotation. Strider can't stay healthy. Smith-Shawver is a nice piece. And Schwellenbach. But who is the future in their rotation beyond them? I'd say they need arms in their system every bit as much as they need an OFer. I'm less position focused as most others. I just want talent. Ceiling talent. As much high ceiling talent as I can get. I'll figure out the details later once I see who can actually get close to reaching their ceiling in the majors. Hartman is quite possibly their best talent, from what I can see. So, he's who I want.

If they sell numerous pieces at the deadline, I'd be even more inclined to keep them down. If Larnach is gone, put Roden in RF (move Keaschall to left where he belongs) every day for 3 weeks and see what he can do. If Bell is gone, move Larnach to DH, Keaschall to left and put Roden in RF every day for 3 weeks. If they're both gone, put Keaschall in left and Roden in right for 3 weeks and rotate DH. I don't want to waste the rookie eligibility of those guys for an extra 2 weeks of time in the bigs. The cutoff for days for rookie eligibility is in the middle of August. Maybe neither wins RoY, but I'd give myself multiple chances at the extra pick over an extra 2 weeks in the bigs for them. Bring Fedko back up and give him those 2 weeks of ABs and see if he's even worth tendering this offseason as a possible 4th OFer or if he's simply not a major leaguer. Bring Wallner back to DH. Plenty of other guys they can gather data on for offseason decisions for 2 or 3 weeks while you save your multiple chances at an extra draft pick.

Yeah, I think the break came at a terrible time for the Twins. They were outperforming their numbers by a pretty significant margin, and the break gave them time off to lose their rhythm, and many of these players aren't good enough to find it and play above their heads again. Kreidler being a prime example. As to your comment about getting Jenkins and Culpepper up, I'd like to see them up mid- to late-August. I don't think a few more weeks in AAA hurts them at all and I'd like to keep their rookie eligibility in place for 2027 and give us 2 shots at a RoY award extra draft pick compensation.

Culpepper played his first game in a month last night. Having him debut almost immediately after coming off the IL feels like putting him in a really bad spot. Established MLB players get longer rehab stints than you're proposing. Let Kaelen get settled for a couple weeks and show that he's doing what he was before the injury.

I think there's a 0% chance Seattle is trading Kade Anderson. And if they did, it'd be for offense, not pitching. If the Twins can get Anderson plus in a deal for Joe Ryan, they should get the paperwork filed immediately. I don't think the Twins could get Kade straight up for Joe Ryan. The package I'd like to see the Twins get back is Cam Caminiti and Eric Hartman from Atlanta. Although, all of these deals are intriguing. Outside of what I believe to be completely unrealistic in getting Kade back. I'd also be surprised to see San Diego move Salas at this point.

FYI, the Hancock rumors are definitely focused on the deadline. Not saying that means he'll be traded, but they aren't looking for young hitters, they're looking for a right handed bat to plug into their lineup today. They have 6 MLB starters and 2 elite pitching prospects. The reports are they're willing to trade Castillo or Hancock for offense. Hancock would bring back significantly more than Castillo, so that's the rumor people are focusing on. They're reported to have interest in Steer from Cinci. If that's the case, Jeffers should pretty easily trump him in terms of an offensive piece. With Steer obviously being able to stand in more defensive spots even though he doesn't play them particularly well. The Mariners aren't looking forward to 2027 when it comes to Hancock, they're looking to make an MLB for MLB trade to get them to the top of their division in 2026. Or at least that's what the reporting is.

Culpepper debuted on 8/9 and Houston debuted on 8/1. Without claiming any inside info, I'd guess we see Lackey sometime next week. Certainly within the next 2.

Fangraphs doubted his power. He, apparently, put on quite a show in BP before the futures game. They are one of multiple publications that have mentioned it. They now believe in the power. That was their stated biggest reason for the jump. They now believe he can be a true star with the bat by hitting for average and power.

It absolutely is. But a SS who can't field the position not hitting is not worth anything just like a 1B who can't hit isn't. The position thing only matters if Royce can actually field the position. He can't field SS. If the Twins put Austin Martin at SS for a season and watched him not field and not hit, would he suddenly be worth more because it says SS next to his name? Of course not. And its the same with Lewis. Not hitting and not fielding at SS doesn't automatically make you more valuable just because it says SS next to your name.

He stopped hitting before they moved him to 1B. He moved there in the minors at the age of 27 after getting demoted because he hadn't hit for 2 years. That argument doesn't make any sense at all. He moved to 3B for some guy named Correa. And hit well while playing there until completely falling apart. He didn't fall apart when they moved him, he fell apart a year and a half later. $16MM of value for a full season is nonsense in this discussion. You think other teams would be looking at Lewis hitting at an 80-something OPS+ for 2 years while playing below average defense at short and think "my goodness, we really need this guy!" Or putting up those numbers while playing a better, but still not very good defense at 3B and be begging for him? Royce Lewis stopped hitting. That's why he lost his value. And it had nothing at all to do with him changing positions.