chpettit19

And we'll never know. Fans who dislike him will point to the players who underperformed and blame him. Fans that like him will point to the players who overperformed and give him credit. Neither will be right. They'll both be right. Nobody on the outside knows. Why did Harrison Bader have the best offensive season of his career this year? Was it the incompetent hitting coach? Why were/are people excited about Kody Clemens' "breakout" this year? Was it the incompetent hitting coach? How about Austin Martin or Luke Keaschall? Ryan Jeffers? Willi Castro fell apart when he left, was Borgschulte holding him together? But he got good under Popkins and fell apart with the Cubs, so were Popkins and Borgschulte both good and the Cubs guy bad? The amount of opinions about coaches around here is always fascinating to me. To my knowledge, there's not a lot of people on these boards who've interviewed these guys or know anything real about them. It's all just made up in our heads. We have no legitimate way of knowing how good any of these guys are. Every team's lineup and pitching staffs are full of successes and failures. Who you credit or blame for that is all up to your own biases, really.

I think the Twins actually push their top guys relatively quickly. The problem is they don't tend to have a lot of truly high-end prospects. Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Walker Jenkins, and Kaelen Culpepper have all been pushed pretty quickly. Based on games played, Emmanuel Rodriguez has been as well. Jenkins is the only guy that would go into a season with high hopes of winning the ROY award, so he's the only one they should be considering that with. The other guys make more sense to be playing the service time game with and take your chances that they don't win the award because the odds are so low that they would. Jenkins' injuries have thrown his timeline off so he's caught in the middle now and is likely out of the running for that consideration because he won't debut opening day, but he shouldn't need the entire season in AAA either. The extra pick should certainly be factored in, but you need good enough prospects to worry about it and then there's still numerous variables to the decision. The Twins just need more ROY candidate type prospects.

Not sure why Philly would do that trade. They're giving up the best player in the deal for a non-tender in Larnach and a non-mlber in Gasper. They certainly wouldn't be the ones throwing in a prospect on that deal.

I don't think Basallo is available. I mean, everyone is available at the right price, but I think the cost for Basallo would be more than any team is willing to pay. Rutschman may be on his way out and Basallo is their future. The price tag on guys who debut at 20 years old is astronomical. Any trade of Ryan or Lopez to Baltimore would probably return Trey Gibson, Ike Irish, or Wehiwa Aloy as the centerpiece, not Basallo. I don't think Baltimore is a good match. Ryan Mountcastle is the type of guy you can get off their major league team, and I don't see the fit for him in Minnesota.

If they sit around and do nothing I'm going to somehow find another level of disappointment in them. They absolutely can't just sit on their hands and go into 2026 with this roster.

I don't doubt at all that Larnach will be on an opening day roster in 2026 (assuming health). I'm absolutely not trying to suggest he isn't worthy of an MLB roster spot. My only contention is that he's worth anything in trade. He isn't worth the 4.7 or 5ish mil in arb money he's due next year. Teams don't generally trade useful pieces for guys that aren't worth their contract. I think Cleveland is definitely a team that would call Trevor's agents if/when he's non-tendered. Just like Eddie Rosario landed in Cleveland after he was non-tendered. But it'll be for more like 3 mil instead of 5. Trevor will get a spot on a roster as a platoon DH/cOFer next year. I don't have any doubts at all about that. I just don't think it'll be here and I don't think he'll be traded.

Sure, that'd be great, but I'm not sure why the other team would do that. Good stuff and just a health concern is a better player than Larnach simply not being good enough for his money. Why would the other team give up the guy with a legit chance to be good? I hope they can get something for him. Even if it's a no name prospect that likely never even reaches the majors. I always prefer to get something instead of nothing. I just don't see the motivation for other teams to trade for him when they can sign him or the equivalent for less at any time of the offseason. I hope I'm wrong, I just don't see a trade happening.

I don't know that that's the true value they gave to him, but I also don't value Varland as highly as many around here do. Just because it was 2 players coming back doesn't mean they valued them both equally. Roden may have been 90% of that trade return or 10.

Have you actually looked at Nick Gordon's stats? More versatile at the plate? The guy hit .244 with a .283 OBP for his career. What's versatile about that? Nick Gordon had 1 good year. It was the year he slugged over .400. He wasn't versatile at all.

It could be, but I think it'd be a bad one. Taking on $5 million deals for guys who aren't worth $5 million is not good team building strategy. It's why teams don't do it often. I think the Larnach situation is far more of a comp to Eddie Rosario than Nick Gordon. They'll try to trade him but he's much more likely to be non-tendered at that price point.

Gordon made 900k for the Marlins. Far different trade scenario than Larnach and his 5ish mil contract. You'd have to find a reliever that isn't worth the 5 mil they're making to offset the money.

Yeah, have to agree with the last few comments...the Tweet says "everyday outfielders." The Twins don't have that. Buxton is at his peak value but holds all the cards when it comes to a trade this season. He could fetch real value if he agrees to be traded. He may even have to demand a trade for the Twins to move him. Wallner has value because even his down year was an above average season. He's better suited to mash and K out of the 5 or 6 hole instead of the top 4 in a lineup, but he's a legit threat in the batter's box and that carries value. Larnach is far more likely to be non-tendered than return anything meaningful in trade. Austin Martin may have a little value, but nothing outrageous. He's not bringing back a top 100 prospect or anything. Rumors are Steven Kwan is on the block and he's the guy teams would go for before hoping Martin can be Kwan. Outman and Roden have no trade value at all. They aren't even established as 13th guy on the bench outfielders let alone everyday outfielders. Emma, Jenkins, GG, Fedko, or anyone else people want to throw out are far from sure things. Jenkins has massive value, and I'm sure they could get something for Emma and GG, but trying to pick the 1 or 2 prospects that will make it and trading the ones who won't is an awful front office practice at this point of a team building cycle. You need to keep all your prospects to give yourself the best chance to get some that actually make it. The Twins are not a source of everyday outfield talent for the league. Not even close.

Oh, I don't think it'd be expensive to get Bart. Fedko sounds about right. Older "prospect" who's likely a AAAA player max. Sure, the Larnach's of the world can't turn down their contract, but why would you give up anything for him and then pay more than he's worth? He's not making you a contender. Good free agents with multiple options tell the Pirates to stop calling, but they sign guys in the Larnach realm of players every year. Tommy Pham, IKF, Adam Frazier, etc. If Larnach is non-tendered and they offer him 3 or 4 mil he very well may end up there without them giving up anything and they save a couple mil. If not him, they can find a 1-year vet with a league average bat and no defensive value pretty easily. You only bring in Larnach if you think you can get more out of him so you'll risk the arb money.

Why wouldn't they just use Bart at DH and save 2+ million? Their bats are essentially the same. Larnach had a 99 OPS+ this year after maxing out at 116 the year before. Bart was 96 this year and 121 the year before. I don't think Larnach has any trade value at all. I don't think any team is going to trade for him. Certainly not to give up a cheaper bat of the same quality who also catches. I think the dream of trading Larnach for a useful piece is one with almost no chance of happening. Gleeman reported they tried to trade him at the deadline and got no bites. He's now more expensive. The fact that he hit as high in the Twins lineup as he did is a prime example of how much they need lineup help. I'm not sure which catchers that quote is referring to for sure, but if one is Henry Davis I don't think it makes much sense. Davis is younger, but he's a worse hitter than Vazquez. I'd assume another is Endy Rodriguez who is also younger but has an MLB wRC+ of 59. The 3rd one is likely Rafael Flores who is a better argument for things. Endy plays C/1B/2B/LF so they don't need to move their 2nd best hitter in order to get him time. If 2.7 mil for their 2nd best hitter (with 200 PAs according to wRC+) is too much, they certainly aren't trading for Larnach at 5 mil when his wRC+ was 102 compared to Bart's 101.

I think the more unrealistic trade is Larnach for Bart. Not sure why the Pirates would do that. Is Bart a non-tender candidate? Larnach surely is. I don't think that trade has any shot.

Not sure why they keep Ryan if they're selling everyone else and going with a bare bones payroll. The fact that he's a good deal at that price is why you sell him. You're not winning while you have him here so go get somebody who will be here when you are ready to win.

It's accounted for in the blueprint but it doesn't show here for whatever reason. But it's on the worksheet when you build the blueprint. The above salaries total 95.6 million.

It'll be interesting to see where Bo signs this offseason and what that team's infield looks like as far as where he plays. He certainly wouldn't be my long-term plan at SS, but he'd start there in 2026 and I'd move him as I get a better feel for my infield options during the season and into the future. Sliding him to 2B now, and even DH for the last few years of his deal would be just fine with me. That bat would be huge in this lineup, though. Unfortunately, I don't think the Twins even call his agent this offseason. Or Naylor's probably. I just think that when you have a roster you know is going to have a ton of minimum contract dudes on it now and in the near future that's the time to make a splash by spending big on proven guys. Having so many minimum salaried guys on the roster makes it so I can get Naylor, Bichette, and Buxton all on the same team without even hitting 110 mil in payroll. Imagine if they could/would just go to 130ish. Another 20 mil lets you keep Pablo or sign a similar pitcher to a longer deal. The key is still development, but there's so much room for big time players when you're filling so many slots with cheap guys. Just need to have those cheap guys be good.

My 1 semi-logical post for the month! Enjoy!

As opposed to keeping the 2 best pitchers and having 1 legit hitter and winning games 1-0? I'm not trying to compete for the playoffs in 2026. This is my hopes for their rebuild. Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez are gone after 2027. Letting them leave for 2 comp picks total would be one of the worst decisions this team has ever made so they need to trade them before 2027. I'd prefer to trade them now and bring in guys that I will have in 2+ years when the rebuild should be much closer to completed. Replacing them with Bo and Josh gives this team their best chance of having 1 side of the ball not have to have real work done over the next 4 years. The position player side of the roster shouldn't need any real work for 3 or 4 years while Buxton, Bo, and Naylor are locking down the top of the lineup. Or you can keep the 2 pitchers, still have no real chance at the playoffs in 2026, trade them after 2026 and be in the same place, but without Bo Bichette and Josh Naylor in your lineup.

*I used The Athletic's contract estimates on the bigger free agents. Bo for 8/212 and Naylor for 4/92. I don't buy into the idea that you can't sign big free agents until the rest of your roster is ready to win. Signing Bo and Josh give the Twins 3 legitimate top of the order bats for the next 3 years (until Buxton's deal runs out). That leaves Keaschall, Lewis, Martin, Emma, Jenkins, GG, Wallner, Lee, Mendez, Culpepper, etc. to fill the gaps and hopefully take the offense to a place where it's legitimate. Bo can move to 2B if/when Culpepper, Houston, or hopefully Roch are ready and better defenders at SS. The Twins are no longer relying on youth to fill 4 of 5 spots at the top of the order, but instead they need to fill 2. If Lewis and Wallner bounce back and Keaschall maintains, there's your 4th, 5th, and 6th bats (not lineup order, just quality bats) for those 3 years and you have a legitimate, playoff quality offense before you even have to start thinking about the guys still in the minors. I traded Ryan or Lopez (whoever they want) to Boston for Abreu and a prospect or 2. The other pitcher went for whatever the highest upside prospect or 2 I could get was. Not predicting who, just the player or 2 with the highest ceiling. Needed to free money for my bats. I would utilize a lot more multi-inning arms out of the pen. Festa, Prielipp, Raya, Morris types who can do that 3 or 4 innings every 4 days strategy. That leaves 4 other spots in the pen for 1 inning guys. The pitching is very likely a problem in 2026, but the hope is to get enough of the young(ish) arms experience and be better in the 2nd half than the first with some real signs of a pitching staff emerging. This is obviously a completely unrealistic idea as the Twins aren't going to sign either Bo or Josh, and certainly not both. But it's what I sure wish they'd do. It would essentially be expecting a reset of the payroll to this 110 mark with increases moving forward. Not huge jumps, but enough to cover the arb deals of the players that show they're worth it with Naylor and Buxton's deals coming off in 3 and 4 years to help cover even more. The obvious flaw in this dream is the pitching is now almost entirely reliant on developing arms. I'd trade Ober after the season, too. C: Victor Caratini ($7M) 1B: Josh Naylor ($23M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Bo Bichette ($26.5M) LF: Austin Martin ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Wilyer Abreu ($0.80M) DH: Matt Wallner ($.8M) 4th OF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($0.80M) Utility: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) Utility: Ryan Fitzgerald ($0.80M) Backup C: Jhonny Pereda ($.8M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Bailey Ober ($4.6M) SP2: Simeon Woods Richardson ($.8M) SP3: Zebby Matthews ($.8M) SP4: Mick Abel ($0.80M) SP5: Taj Bradley ($0.80M) RP: David Festa ($.8M) RP: Connor Preilipp ($0.80M) RP: Marco Raya ($1.30M) RP: Andrew Morris ($0.80M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) RP: Cole Sands ($0.80M) RP: Pierson Ohl ($0.80M) RP: Travis Adams ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 13.09% under budget

That's great. He isn't going to do that in the majors. Neither is Fedko. Here is the list of every major league baseball player to reach 20 HRs and 20 SBs last year. All of them. The complete and total list. It's 24 guys. In all of baseball. Kyler Fedko and Kala'i Rosario are not even touching this caliber of player. Rosario was in this same type of article last year. While he was in AA just like he was this year. Nobody picked him last year and nobody is going to pick him this year. If those guys were 20/20, let alone 25/35, threats in the majors they'd be there already. They aren't.

Kala'i is not going to steal bases like that in the majors. He isn't that fast. Julien had a season in the minors where he stole 34 bags. Minor league stolen base numbers are not telling of base stealing ability or speed unless you're talking about the guys stealing 70-100+. It's mostly just about going a lot because pitchers don't know how to hold runners and many of the catchers aren't good enough to throw guys out. But that isn't really the point, the point is that neither Rosario nor Fedko are actually likely to get taken or be kept all season. But I'll take the way under on any MLB season where Kala'i Rosario and Kyler Fedko combine for 50+ HR and 70+ stolen bases no matter what team(s) they're on. These guys just aren't those kinds of prosects.

Ah, yes, the Rule 5 draft. The most freaked out over for no reason part of the offseason. The Twins aren't losing any players to the Rule 5 draft. Kyler Fedko was the 32nd best hitter in AAA between 24 and 26 years old with at least 100 PAs. Every team has one of him. 10-15 guys get taken in the Rule 5 and there's rarely ever more than 3 or 4 that actually stick with the selecting team. Do the exercise in reverse. If you're looking at the Twins bad MLB roster and thinking of who they should be grabbing in the Rule 5, are you hoping for Kyler Fedko or Kala'i Rosario? I'm certainly not. Just look at who people were worried about losing last year. Ricardo Olivar was on the list then, too. So was Rosario. Neither of them made it past the level they were at (AA) when people were worried about them in 2024. MacLeod also on that list. Rubel Cespedes, Will Holland, and Noah Cardenas also made Nick's article. Patrick Winkel, Jovani Moran, and Jaylen Nowlin were other names brought up in the comments section that people feared may get taken. Raya and Adams were protected. Anybody thrilled with them saving those 2 at this point? Possibly serviceable relievers, but certainly not anybody folks around here are overly excited about. Shoot, Adams' name is being listed as a guy to waive to protect the next Adams. The level of prospect we're talking about is simply not worth worrying about. Especially on the position player side. But we'll continue to do it every year.

If you just want to compare their minor league lines, Walls had an OPS of .881 in AAA. .824 in AA, .756 in A+ ball, and .821 in A. Noah Miller has never topped .657 at any level of the minors. He had a .657 at A+ ball. And I was actually wrong about his AAA OPS, I looked at his total season OPS from last year. His AAA OPS was .612. He was .603 in AA, the .657 at A+, and .627 in A ball. Take what you will from those numbers.