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mnfireman

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Everything posted by mnfireman

  1. mnfireman
    I see our old friend Keith Law has made his vote public. He used 7 of 10, did not vote for Mauer, but did vote for Utley and ARoid. Mauer is named on 122/146 (83.6%) ballots, 1 ahead of Helton.
  2. mnfireman
    Polanco is a very good athlete, he came up as a SS after all, I think he can make the transition to 1B, much like Carew did. Julien started at 2B in both WC games, was PH for by Farmer in Game 1 and PR for by Farmer in Game 2. Farmer stayed in both games to play 3B while Polanco moved over to 2B. He started at 2B in Game 1 of the ALDS, PH for Farmer late in Game 2 (Valdez started, LHP) and was the DH in Games 3 and 4 (Solano started Game 4 at 1B in place of the injured Kirilloff). Polanco started the 2 WC games at 3B and moved over to 2B once Julien was removed in both games. He started Game 1 of the ALDS at 3B and moved over to 2B for Games 2, 3 & 4 once Lewis was healthy enough to play in the field. Seems to me the team valued Polanco over Julien due to his ability to hit both handed pitching and his versatility in the field.
  3. mnfireman
    Which makes him a more attractive trade piece that should bring back a better return...
  4. mnfireman
    Odorizzi had shoulder surgery before last season and did not pitch last year.
  5. mnfireman
    Using 400 PA's to get Julien "Top 10" in the league for OBP, Solano also makes "Top 10" From Aug 1 to the end of the season (SSS), "what have you done for me lately"; Julien - .223/.376/.369 (.745 OPS) 6 HR 19 RBI 39/63 K/BB ratio Polanco - .265/.366/.471 (.837 OPS) 9 HR 29 RBI 28/56 K/BB ratio Julien had the stronger overall Postseason, but that is also a SSS. As for defense, Polanco had the better Defensive Runs Saved, Julien showed better OAA and RAA numbers, but neither one of the graded out well on defense. The Twins took a reactive approach towards Polanco's injuries last off-season, allowing him to rehab and rest instead of surgery, and bad ankles and knees don't bode very well for a MLB infielder because of the quick, lateral movements required. But he looked healthy and played well when the team needed him down the stretch. If you don't think Polanco deserves a spot on this team, I think you are very wrong. I also think Polanco brings back a good return in a trade, but I think Julien brings back a better return. If either of them is traded, I think it should be this off-season while both still have good value.
  6. mnfireman
    Kind of hard to do since he is not a free agent until 2025...
  7. mnfireman
    I understand this, I was replying to a previous comment. You maybe should have replied to the original comment.
  8. mnfireman
    $3 MM going back to Seattle.
  9. mnfireman
    If they were counting on Caballero to play 2B, then yes...
  10. mnfireman
    https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2024/01/mariners-rays-working-on-trade-involving-luke-raley-jose-caballero.html If it winds up happening, Seattle won't be needing Kepler....
  11. mnfireman
    Julien scored 60 runs in 109 games, about 89 over a full season. In 2023 89 runs scored was 35th in MLB, not superstar level by any means.
  12. mnfireman
    I was referring to Arraez's WAR. At FanGraphs Julien had 2.8 fWAR, Arraez 3.4. At 150 games Julien would have 3.9 fWAR, so yes he easily replaced Arraez's value last season.
  13. mnfireman
    Depends on which site you use for WAR....FanGraphs has him at 3.4 fWAR last season - the same as Willy Adames (gets most of his value from his defense).
  14. mnfireman
    Looking at his splits, Julien seemed to be get walk "happy" later in the season: 4/1 - 7/31 - .298/.386/.536 (.922 OPS) 10 HR, 18 RBI, 25/65 BB/K ratio. 11.8 BB%, 30.8 K%, .407 BAbip 8/1 - 10/1 - .223/.376/.369 (.745 OPS) 6 HR, 19 RBI, 39/63 BB/K ratio. 19.8 BB%, 32.0 k%, .326 BAbip Whether this was due to batting lead-off more often, league adjustment, or change in approach by him, his average and power were way down after August 1 while his BB% was way up. His K% remained roughly equal. His BAbip regressed to closer to league average (.297), but good things happened when he put the ball in play. Here are his splits with 2 strikes - .147/.299/.199 (.498 OPS) League avg - .172/.249/.273 (.522 OPS) Here are fullcount splits - .119/.485./.220 (.708 OPS) League avg - .191/.454/.325 (.779 OPS) He has shown that he has a good eye at the plate, league average BB% is 8.6%, and that he can hit the ball hard (44.9 hard hit %), but he needs to improve his 2 strike hitting, and as previously stated, his in the zone contact rate.
  15. mnfireman
    Agree about changing the two-strike approach of most, if not all, Twins batters - but that's a subject for a different discussion. Hitting the ball hard generally leads to good things because the fielder can't react as quickly and a simple "gapper" like the Buxton example makes it to the wall for extra bases instead of being cut off for a single, or the fielder gets caught on the in-between hop and can't make the play like the Wallner example.
  16. mnfireman
    Pags, Knobby and Herbie turning two and Dazzle and Puck running them down. Black Jack, Big Bird, Big Train and Bedrock mowing them down and Chili hitting them out on their way to the '91 WS...
  17. mnfireman
    Dazzle, Puck and Bruno catching fly balls and The Rat throwing over to Herbie on grounders hit off of the Flying Dutchman, Sweet Music, Senor Smoke, The Terminator and even Lefty on their way to the '87 WS...
  18. mnfireman
    Unfortunately, the younger guys (Julien, Lewis, Lee, Wallner and to a lesser extent Kirilloff, Larnach and maybe Miranda) will get a better return. Also, unfortunately, Buxton's health will play into how many PA's some of those guys get - if he's healthy and plays mostly CF, the others can get PA's at DH, if he is the everyday DH, they don't. Maybe Polanco can copy Carew and move from 2B to 1B and can stay healthy and productive. Might be worth a shot.
  19. mnfireman
    Yes, my bad. At that time it was 73/91. Currently: Beltre - 94/96 97.9% Mauer - 79/96 82.3% Helton - 78/96 81.3% Wagner - 75/96 78.1%
  20. mnfireman
    Mauer continues to get votes!! 91 voters accounted for and he trails only Beltre. Beltre - 89/91 97.8% Mauer - 74/91 81.3% Helton - 73/81 80.2% Wagner - 70/91 76.9% Sheffield (64/91, 70.3%), Beltran (58/91, 63.7%) and Jones (56/91, 61.5%) are the only others above 50%. There are some very head-scratching ballots being submitted.
  21. mnfireman
    So, out of all the back and forth all day you think I am bemoaning the quality of Ryan and Ober? Far from it. I am saying if all the team gets out of them is 130 innings each then the season is not going to be successful. That is only 22 - 25 starts each, that leaves a lot of starts and a lot of innings to be covered by inexperienced or cast-off arms. Disagree with me if you like, but I would rather see 160 or more innings out of each of those 2 this season, that equates to good health, which should equate to team wins.
  22. mnfireman
    So don't count them!! You also then need to remove them from counting numbers because they changed teams, so the percentages stay roughly the same. I included them because their innings totaled over 130 & 145. 130 innings at 5 innings a start is 26 starts, at 6 innings a start it's 22 starts. 162 games in a season divided by 5 spots is 32/33 starts per spot. If Ryan and Ober each get 130 innings, who's covering those missing 12 - 20 starts? If you can get Scherzer, Verlander or Montgomery to cover them great!! Otherwise its going to be lesser options than Ryan or Ober. We seem to be forgetting that Dylan Bundy, Chris Archer, Devin Smeltzer, Randy Dobnak, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker, Dallas Keuchel among others have started significant games over the last several years to cover missing starts by injured pitchers.
  23. mnfireman
    Texas had 7 if you include Scherzer and Montgomery, Houston had 5 if you include Verlander, Baltimore had 4 if you include Flaherty and Dodgers have 2 if include Lynn. Yes these were in-season pick ups, but they took the ball every 5th day and pitched in the play-offs.
  24. mnfireman
    Dropping my 145 innings to 144, there were 70 MLB pitchers that hit that mark, 4 from the Twins. Including totals from payers that were traded in-season, 38 of 70 (54.3%) pitched for play-off teams. Dropping it to 130 innings pitched, 41 of 86 (47.7%) pitched for play-off teams. And if you include the last 4 teams eliminated from the play-offs, 47 of 70 (67.1%) pitched 140 innings, and 56 of 86 (65.1%) pitched 130 innings. 15 innings is 3 starts, and I would rather have Ryan or Ober make those 3 starts instead of a Dallas Keuchel-type. Starting pitching wins games, and quality starting pitching gets you into the play-offs. So, I disagree that 130 innings from Ryan and/or Ober is considered a success (the + leaves too much open) and stick by my 160 innings, too many innings to replace otherwise.
  25. mnfireman
    130 innings from Ryan and/or Ober is not a successful season, GOOD play-off teams generally have 3 or 4 guys that give them at least 145 innings, covering extra innings with sub-par pitching does not work.
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